Newspoll: 57-43; Nielsen: 56-44

Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.

On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.

Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.

On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.

On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43; Nielsen: 56-44”

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  1. Socrates:
    [As I said before, there is no point in debating triton on AGW. If you didn’t know better, you would think someone is paying him to trot out these tired old talking points again and again. Real Climate is a site run by actual climate scientists;]

    Is it a “tired old point” just to say that when two sides are arguing you can’t always tell who to believe? That’s a fairly obvious point to make I would have thought.

    You are just pathetic the way you misrepresent everything I say on AGW. Twice you said that I was dishonest and “shifting goalposts” and twice you refused to provide the quotes demonstrating this after I had provided the quotes showing you were wrong. You have the audacity to claim that I am dishonest when it is you who are making these ridiculous, wrong, over-the-top responses to my posts.

    It’s pretty obvious that you are a completely closed-minded, religious believer in AGW who won’t stand for any expression of the merest doubt about it.

  4. [Give me Abbott anytime, at least you know where he stands. He is the answer to my wet dream in his red cossie.]

    Forgive me while I’m violently ill!
    I wonder if Peter Debnam is still strutting around Bondi in his budgie smugglers? 😉

  9. [ samanthamaiden

    Liberal senator Judith Troeth says she and 8 other senators will vote for Labor’s ETS – Rudd and Wong only need seven votes #spill less than 20 seconds ago from web ]

    Will be fascinating to see the chaos and turmoil if this happens 🙂

  12. What will be funny: Minchin gets rid of Turnball, but he’s stuck with the ETS if Hockey gets up and brings on the free vote!
    The right wing nutters might have outsmarted themselves! 😉

  13. [Frank, i have to cancel meetings for to watch these donkeys. But i am not complaining :kiss:]

    I haven’t gone to bed – cos of the time difference I wanted to be up and watching

  14. [The only arguments I’ve heard from Liberals on delaying the CPRS vote are to do with Kevin Rudd and his overseas trips.]

    Yes, the Wowsers are out in force on that one, whipped up by the Bolts and the Alan Joneses of our 4th Estate.

    I doubt whether it will matter that much, even in the short term. Rudd doesn’t seem to be being treated differently by the movers and shakers of Copenhagen. In fact he’s being feted by them. They know that the Trogs will go down eventually. This “not before Copenhagen” movement is the last shot in the locker of a bunch of ageing nobodies with loud mouths and narrow minds.

  15. I don’t know where this perception of Hockey as affable, likeable, good-humoured, avuncular, and easy going comes from. As his nasty personal attack on two Sydney academics in October 2007 demonstrated, he is a bully. When people contradict him or embarrass him, he flicks the switch from rolly-polly funny man to boorish Catholic school thug.

    AUTHORS of a report revealing employees on Australian Workplace Agreements are earning $106 less than other workers are preparing to sue the Federal Workplace Relations Minister, Joe Hockey, who branded them “former trade union officials who are parading as academics”.

    John Buchanan and Brigid Van Wanrooy, of the University of Sydney’s Workplace Research Centre, have briefed lawyers, saying Mr Hockey defamed them when he implied their research was distorted.

    “We are absolutely considering legal action,” Dr Buchanan told the Herald last night. “We have taken advice from a number of legal sources on the basis that he is accusing us of cooking up data.”

  16. Can you really believe this about Hockey’s latest “solution” on the CPRS:

    1. Defer it
    2. Then free vote next year.

    My apology to the donkey.

  17. [latikambourke

    this is a joke. Journalists told not to quiz MP’s and confined to the Reps antechamber. #censorship less than a minute ago from Echofon ]

  18. [According to Briteny:

    David_Speers

    Andrews not running…phew! 1 minute ago from web]

    Awww, no The Drewster

    He was the Skeleton Man of the sideshow – I’m disappointed.

  22. [Osman Faruqi oz_f

    Hilarious. Hockey’s cousin says he’s not ready for the leadership. #spill less than 20 seconds ago from Echofon ]

  24. Andrew: Alan Jones has been almost hyperventilating this morning!
    The right wing shock jocks are desperately praying for an Abbott win! 🙂

  25. confessions

    The only arguments I’ve heard from Liberals on delaying the CPRS vote are to do with Kevin Rudd and his overseas trips.

    OoooWaaaaaah, ‘fessions, you forgot Bolta, Shock Jocks, RW spambots and whoever is/are pulling the religious RW L-NP powerbrokers’ strings!

  26. John Hewson just said that the world economy will dive in the second half of 2010. If so, there is more reason for a DD if the CPRS is delayed.

  30. [Can you really believe this about Hockey’s latest “solution” on the CPRS:

    1. Defer it
    2. Then free vote next year.

    My apology to the donkey.]

    Finns, if that is right, then Minchin has got to him!

    Hockey is a total Dill-brain!

  37. [Scorpio, Minchin just said free vote is a no no.]

    He’s right. It’s just weak, like his pathetic tweet. As Grattan said today, it’s a cop-out.

  38. [OoooWaaaaaah, ‘fessions, you forgot Bolta, Shock Jocks, RW spambots and whoever is/are pulling the religious RW L-NP powerbrokers’ strings!]

    But those people argue for no CPRS at all. Liberal MPs arguing for delay of the vote only ever seem to frame their case in terms of Rudd, Copenhagen, Rudd’s “ego”, “strutting the world stage” and so on. It’s apparent they have no real arguments against voting for the CPRS except for a hatred of Rudd.

  41. BB

    [If even the OO has turned against the Liberals, at least on this issue, then the game is up.]

    This has been one of the most bizarre things for me. The OO campaigns against AGW for two years and then when the ETS is hanging in the balance it’s time to pass it and the deniers are finally called deniers.

  45. At this point I am thinking that the Liberal right were just hoping to use Hockey to split the Turnbull voters and then get Abbott up, but if they can’t get Hockey to look credible about the ETS then the tactic will fail and Hockey’s bid would collapse. That would leave it back to Turnbull vs Abbott with Turnbull winning if those in favour of the ETS are in the majority. If the Anti-ETS group are in the majority then Abbott will win anyway.

    Either Way Hockey looks weak. At best he winds up a pro-ETS leader leading an anti-ETS party, with his leadership only gained by a compromise of his own views.

  46. ‘Fess, Psephos. Y’r drooling at the thought of Abbott & Dutton …… and the DD election if they get the leadership.

    Haven’t felt the urge to reread Tom Truman’s Catholic Action and Politics ? Just to remind yourself how the other side feels? Helping ALPers who do them nasty injuries rolling in the aisles?

    Must send OH out for some sour lemons. I was brought up never to scoff at other’s misfortune!

  47. [. The OO campaigns against AGW for two years and ]
    See, they consider publishing a heap of denialist articles as The Australian participating in the debate.

  48. Banarby just stabbed Sloppy. He said no defer, a free vote CPRS will go through. Quote: “What a way to start your leadership, nuttiness and indecisiveness. It’s bizarre to have the free vote”. Herr Doktor, i hope Labor Media Unit is listening.

    OMG, Sloppy has even more knives on his back than Turnbull

  50. There are going to be a lot of votes if a spill gets up
    1. Spill?
    2. Leader
    3. Deputy Leader
    4. Senate Leader
    5. Other crappy positions

    And then will they take a vote on the ETS?

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