Newspoll: 56-44

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor bouncing from last fortnight’s 52-48 quirk to 56-44. Interesting to note that Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings were unaffected by the upheaval: while the two-party rating went from 59-41 to 52-48 to 56-44, preferred prime minister went from 65-19 to 63-19 to 63-22. More to follow. Also:

• Essential Research‘s two-party figure has lurched from 59-41 to 55-45, the lowest lead for Labor in its 18 months of operation. These figures combine two weeks of polling, suggesting a particularly sharp drop was recorded in the most recent survey. Further questions in the survey focus on issues of national importance, party best able to handle various economic issues (Coalition leads Labor on “government debt” by 24 points), importance of a national broadband network (high) and who should run it (the feds or failing that Telstra), which kinds of organisations are the most influential (media and the banks) and whether emissions trading scheme legislation should be delayed until after Copenhagen (slight lean to yes).

• Full results from Saturday’s Newspoll survey of marginal Queensland seats here. Labor holds remarkably consistent 3 to 4 per cent leads across all of them, including three they hold, two they don’t and one (Dickson) which the redistribution has changed from Liberal to notional Labor.

• The Greens have published a Galaxy survey on attitudes to climate change, the dubiousness of which is explored by Andrew Norton.

• Kirsty Needham of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Werriwa MP Chris Hayes has received support from the state secretaries of the Right faction Transport Workers Union and Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. A deal at federal level gives Werriwa to the Left in exchange for a clear run for the Right in Fowler, leaving Hayes to contest marginal Macarthur.

• Alex Easton of the Northern Star names Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout as a potential Liberal candidate for (federal) Richmond.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,811 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. I reckon today’s Newspoll will further embolden the government to set this up as a DD trigger, and the boat people/asylum seeker scare campaign has run out of steam & will be further undermined with the advent of the monsoon season.
    The much vaunted announcement of Turnball’s “hard on boat people” policy didn’t exactly benefit the Coalition, and the bounce he got in his approval rating was probably due to some redneck/one nation voters moving over to his side!

  3. [The last I heard was that their tactic was to talk it out for the next two weeks, refuse to allow a vote, and refuse to come back for extra sittings, thus dodging a decision until next year.]

    Actually, that’s not a bad tactic if you are Minchin. The one thing the public agrees with the Libs about is that we don’t need to have an ETS before Copenhagen.

    When Copenhagen flops and there is no international agreement, Minchin will start yelling that we shouldn’t go it alone with an ETS and wreck our economy when the rest of the world isn’t doing anything.

    Let’s hope the moderates decide they just want the ETS off the table as an issue and vote to pass it in the party room.

  4. [The State Government is expected to announce this morning whether tasers will be issued to South Australian police officers.

    Premier Mike Rann and Police Commissioner Mal Hyde are scheduled to hold a media conference at 11.30pm, where they are expected to detail the results of a trial conducted on the use of tasers.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26361084-5006301,00.html

    Sigh. Tasers may be safer than guns, but they’ll also be used more than guns because of this. It is not possible that there won’t be any triggerhappyness based on this. Tell me, will everyone who gets tasered have the chance to have a medical checkup beforehand like Isobel Redmond did/will?

  5. Wouldn’t Antony Green’s election calculator look more logical with red (Labor) on the left and blue (the coalition) on the right?
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

    Related to that, the colour coding in American politics seems the wrong way round. I always have to think twice when I see red (Republican) and blue (Democrats).

    For those with pay TV who’ve been frustrated by having the HOR on Sky, Sky Active, A-PAC and News Radio all at once and the Senate nowhere except online, the multi-view on Sky now has one window for the Senate whenever it’s sitting. With the numbers so close in the Senate there are many occasions when it’s more interesting than the HOR.

    I know what ‘OO’ means here, but I still have no idea what the letters stand for.

  7. [Related to that, the colour coding in American politics seems the wrong way round. I always have to think twice when I see red (Republican) and blue (Democrats).]

    This was so the Democrats don’t get associated with the Commies

  11. You’re dead right Triton. Having red/GOP and blue/Dem colour coding in US elections only became fixed as recently as 2000 (yep, during THAT election). In fact, they became fixed largely as a result of the 2000 election, because the electoral map became so polarized. People started referring to ‘blue states’ and ‘red states’, and it stuck.

    It’s not clear why these were colors chosen to represent the two parties, because the opposite coloration (which makes more sense) was used in some earlier elections (e.g., in the 1970’s). Earlier presidential elections used other colour combinations (such as yellow and blue, although I can’t recall which party was which).

  12. “This was so the Democrats don’t get associated with the Commies”

    Nevertheless, for most of the later 20th century, Democrat states were usually painted red, and Republican states as blue. I’ve heard it said that after Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1980, the electoral map of the US was called a “swimming pool” because of all the blue. For some reason the coloration was switched in 2000.

  13. [Opposition Orifice]

    Well, at least I don’t feel silly at not figuring it out. I would never have guessed that.

    Thanks for the info on colour coding.

  14. The networks decided to use red for the Republicans and blue for the Dems because they didn’t want to be accused of insinuating that the Dems are “reds.” The Democrats are not and never have been a socialist or social democratic party, so they have no historical link with the red flag or any other socialist symbolism. Both parties invariably use the red-white-and-blue of the US flag as their campaigning colours.

  15. [“This was so the Democrats don’t get associated with the Commies”]

    It wasn’t the real reason… I was just throwing it out there as a bit of a stir 😉

  21. “Both parties invariably use the red-white-and-blue of the US flag as their campaigning colours.”

    But Psephos, the same is true of the ALP and the Libs here in Australia. Yet, red = ALP, blue = Libs.

    In the US, the red v blue colour coding really only became popular in the 1970’s – when the red/communist association was not nearly as potent as in earlier decades. Different networks used different colour schemes, although red and blue were the most commonly used colours. It’s only very recently that the red/GOP and blue/Dem coding became ‘standard’ – due to the heightened attention given to the 2000 race.

  24. [GOP campaign posters for most of my life (60s to present) have been blue background, or blue background withe broad horizontal white stripe. Democrat posters were typically red, or red with a white horizontal stripe … except in the Northeast and Westcoast where in the late 70’s and on they opted for green instead of red. The association in the popular mindset was always one of the party of “the true blue” – or “the blue bloods” (depending on your politics and biases) – with all of the conservative associations, while red (until the fall of Communism) and green were associated with Labor/Trade Unionism/Socialistic Policies and Environmentalism respectively. Oddly enough, however, Red was also the prefered color of Southern Democrats as it was the dominant color in the Confederate Flag, and Blue was always associated by them with Yankee uniforms and the Party of Lincoln.

    During presidential elections, the 3 big networks would indicate which presidential candidate had won which state by marking it (typically) blue for GOP, red for the Democrat, and white for “winner not determined as yet”. For some unfathomable reason, during the 90’s, the networks started varying this. Oddly enough, in 2000, the big 3 + Fox all were showing Bush states in red and Gore states in blue. Due to the Florida recounts, the world got to see those maps day in and day out for almost 2 months cementing the terminology of “Blue State” for the Dems and “Red State” for the GOP.]

    http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/705704

  25. [I see the concern troll is in full gear this morning…]

    All I mentioned was the 10% sat/disat swing… but i’ll take it by your comment that you feel it is a concern.

  26. Psephos, if the red/commie association was the real reason that the Dems shied away from being depicted as red, then most networks were oblivious. Even at the end of the Cold War, the networks showed Dem states in red and GOP states in blue. Hence the “Reagan’s swimming pool” remark.

  28. [The Liberal National Party (LNP) in Queensland has nominated Mackay regional councillor George Christensen to contest the seat of Dawson at the next federal election.]

    But far more interestingly….

    [Cr Christensen says he will be running as an LNP member and if elected will speak out against the emissions trading scheme. “If I was the federal member, regardless of what Malcolm Turnbull says, I would not vote for this.”]

    Understandable, given the presence of mining in the electorate, but the guy hasn’t even been elected to Canberra yet, and he’s already bagging Turnbull. Classic.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/16/2743645.htm

  29. [the guy hasn’t even been elected to Canberra yet, and he’s already bagging Turnbull]

    Probably why he got the nomination in the first place 🙂

  35. Hello! This is a surprise, “not”! Strange that the Oz didn’t see fit to name the NSW newspaper that pushed this “beat-up” for all it was worth and more!

    I bet the SMH doesn’t give it much “detailed” coverage, though!

    [A NSW parliamentary committee has exonerated senior political figures and planning officials of any wrongdoing over land deals connected with slain Sydney standover man Michael McGurk.

    The upper house committee’s recommendations, which will be tabled on Friday but have been leaked in draft form to The Australian, are a vindication of NSW Planning Department head Sam Haddad, whose name allegedly appears on a tape-recording McGurk was using in a failed bid to extort $6 million from western Sydney property developer Ron Medich.

    Former Labor powerbroker Graham Richardson, who lobbies on behalf of the Medich Property Group, last month told the committee the illegal recording, which McGurk played to him, was inaudible.

    However, one Sydney newspaper implied there was a possible link between a September 2 meeting between Mr Richardson and Mr Haddad, to discuss planning matters, and McGurk’s murder the following day.]
    [http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/state-politics/officials-cleared-on-michael-mcgurk-allegations/story-e6frgczx-1225798386570

  36. [The networks decided to use red for the Republicans and blue for the Dems because they didn’t want to be accused of insinuating that the Dems are “reds.”]
    I recall during the 1996 election many TV networks used red on maps for Clinton / Gore and Blue for Dole / Kemp because the Democrats were considered the incumbent party.

  38. “Greens still at 10-11%. Sorry CLLRs.”

    Great, so Greens still solidly entrenched as 3rd force in Australian politics, way ahead of Nationals, with daylight to Family First?

    Cool! (…and WTF’s a CLLR?)

  40. It looks very much like the Opposition are pulling a similar stunt as they previously did regarding Rudd and Japan, Rudd and India, Rudd and the US and Rudd and China.

    Most of us would be familiar with these “beat-ups” and I expect the general public would be too.

    I noticed that most of them were banging on about it for all they were worth in the doorstops this morning! Boy, didn’t the media give the Coalition a heap of “air time” this morning too!

    I don’t know why they bother, but I suppose it is because they have nothing much else to hang their hat on that might work!

    [Smith denies diplomatic snub by Indonesia over Oceanic Viking ]
    [Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull said Dr Yudhoyono’s cancelled visit to Australia showed relations with Indonesia were clearly “very strained”.

    “The last-minute cancellation of the president of Indonesia’s visit is an extraordinary slap in the face for Kevin Rudd and Kevin Rudd’s claims to be the great Asia-Pacific diplomat,” he said.

    Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce said Mr Rudd had “botched something” about the visit.

    But Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said there was still a possibility Dr Yudhoyono could make an a end-of-year visit.

    Mr Smith rejected suggestions of tension in the relationship, saying the relationship was “very, very good, first class”.

    “The opposition on this matter should quietly calm down.”]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/smith-denies-diplomatic-snub-by-indonesia-over-oceanic-viking/story-e6frgczf-1225798493366

  42. [I see Dario you aren’t conerned about Rudd’s 63/22 lead. Me either.]

    Ignorant fool. Should the Libs have been comfortable with these skewed figures that only compare one leader to another, prior to Rudd taking over?

  43. [Wasn’t that going to bring down the NSW government Scorpio?]

    237, Sure was! Pretty successful too!

    Now Rees seems to have been given more authority and reshuffled his Front Bench, if he can keep the rabble quiet and in line, then Labor’s chances in NSW at the next election will be significantly improved.

    It won’t hurt Kevin Rudd and Federal Labor either!

    Expect to see a concerted media attack on Rees and NSW Labor right up to the next Federal election!

  44. [Channel 9 is running with the headline Rudd’s popularity takes a dive. LOL.]

    It has – 10% in the past few polls, down with each one. Satisfaction and dissatisfaction of the PM is the only component of the poll not skewed by how poorly the alternative is doing.

  45. [Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull said Dr Yudhoyono’s cancelled visit to Australia showed relations with Indonesia were clearly “very strained”.]
    Oh OK, so Turnbull would unstrain the relations how? By taking all those aboard the Oceanic Viking to Christmas Island? How long would his leadership last if he proposed to do that?

    It’s amazing how being opposition leader has turned Turnbull into a phony liar who will assert anything no matter how ridiculous just to get a headline.

    Yesterday he accused Rudd of misleading parliament during a press conference outside of parliament, but wouldn’t dare do it in the House of Representatives. The last time he tried that his popularity rating sort of took a bit of a hit.

  46. [Now Rees seems to have been given more authority and reshuffled his Front Bench, if he can keep the rabble quiet and in line, then Labor’s chances in NSW at the next election will be significantly improved.]

    You’d want the NSW ALP government to continue to die a flailing death for another 4 years…?

  47. [Ignorant fool.]

    You can cut out that sort of nonsense!

    If that is the only way you think you can make a point over another poster, then you’re putting up a less than shallow argument.

    Still, it is remaining true to form!

  48. What’s the name of that character from Animal Farm – the one that cheerily thinks its going to a party, yabbering happily as its led off the slaughterhouse?

    The coalition remind me of him lately.

  49. [South Australian police officers will be equipped with tasers, with 300 of the electronic devices to be issued across the state at a cost of $2.4 million.

    Mr Rann said the State Government had decided to spend $2.4 million rolling out 300 Tasers on the advice of Mr Hyde.

    “Today’s announcement will see the ECD’s in every patrol car across the State,” Mr Wright said. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26361084-5006301,00.html

    Sigh.

  50. [If that is the only way you think you can make a point over another poster]

    I made my point directly after – but watch the cold hard facts get ignored. It’s become an artform of the CLLRs 😉

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