Newspoll: 56-44

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor bouncing from last fortnight’s 52-48 quirk to 56-44. Interesting to note that Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings were unaffected by the upheaval: while the two-party rating went from 59-41 to 52-48 to 56-44, preferred prime minister went from 65-19 to 63-19 to 63-22. More to follow. Also:

• Essential Research‘s two-party figure has lurched from 59-41 to 55-45, the lowest lead for Labor in its 18 months of operation. These figures combine two weeks of polling, suggesting a particularly sharp drop was recorded in the most recent survey. Further questions in the survey focus on issues of national importance, party best able to handle various economic issues (Coalition leads Labor on “government debt” by 24 points), importance of a national broadband network (high) and who should run it (the feds or failing that Telstra), which kinds of organisations are the most influential (media and the banks) and whether emissions trading scheme legislation should be delayed until after Copenhagen (slight lean to yes).

• Full results from Saturday’s Newspoll survey of marginal Queensland seats here. Labor holds remarkably consistent 3 to 4 per cent leads across all of them, including three they hold, two they don’t and one (Dickson) which the redistribution has changed from Liberal to notional Labor.

• The Greens have published a Galaxy survey on attitudes to climate change, the dubiousness of which is explored by Andrew Norton.

• Kirsty Needham of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Werriwa MP Chris Hayes has received support from the state secretaries of the Right faction Transport Workers Union and Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. A deal at federal level gives Werriwa to the Left in exchange for a clear run for the Right in Fowler, leaving Hayes to contest marginal Macarthur.

• Alex Easton of the Northern Star names Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout as a potential Liberal candidate for (federal) Richmond.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,811 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. Oh and has anyone noticed that the OO pages ncrease the text size in Firefox, and you can only read the pages properly using either the IE Tab plug in, or IE itself.

    Perth Now and other Ltd News sites are ok.

  2. Hundreds of comment’s about nothing, heavily analysed one way or another, each followed by rebuttal about nothing at all.

    56-54 says it all

  5. [Frank Calabrese
    Posted Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 3:00 am | Permalink

    Oh and has anyone noticed that the OO pages ncrease the text size in Firefox, and you can only read the pages properly using either the IE Tab plug in, or IE itself.

    Perth Now and other Ltd News sites are ok.]

    Try ctrl + and ctrl – if your using firefox and not happy with your text size.

  6. [Try ctrl + and ctrl – if your using firefox and not happy with your text size.]

    It starts off ok, but the font increases after the page has loaded – decreasing the font size makes no difference.

  7. So after a brief respite, Shameaham is back to his spinning best. Funny what a rogue poll can do for one’s confidence. It is truly unbelieveable that he neither acknowledges the last poll was a rogue nor sees 4% as a comeback. What a disgrace

  10. It’s time the Greens, in the Senate got their heads out from the sand and support the Government’s ETS Bill, so that we can have an ETS in place as quickly as possible. With the Greens support then there would only need to be 2 liberal Senators to cross the floor instead of 7. The crossing the floor of 2 Libs is more of a probability then 7.
    Come on Bob Brown do the right thing for Australias sake.

  11. So the good news for Labor is buried at the bottom of a Liberal talking point! Hmmmmm. It will be interesting to see in the next hour or two if the Newspoll story gets a headline of its own (as Newspoll results usually do on ABC). The morning shift journos will have clocked on for duty by now.

  12. Kohler’s take on cprs :

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Rudds-will-to-power-pd20091117-XURRY?OpenDocument&src=sph

    [ The simplest, most effective way for Australia to meet any carbon emissions reduction targets that might be set in 2010, once the failed Copenhagen process is put back on track, is to replace two Latrobe Valley brown coal generators with gas.

    Hazelwood and Yallourn are filthy beasts, coughing up 1.4 tonnes of carbon dioxide for every megawatt hour of electricity. They also use huge amounts of water.

    In fact, the main consequence, if not purpose, of the Rudd government’s CPRS legislation that was passed by the House of Representatives yesterday and is now heading for the Senate, is actually to close them, and perhaps the rest of the Latrobe Valley, with minimal compensation to the owners.

    …..what became clear is that this is an opportunity for Kevin Rudd to entrench his power for much longer than John Howard’s 11 years.

    That involves the rather delicate task of appearing to negotiate in good faith, but not really. They need either a deal with environment spokesman Ian Macfarlane that opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull can live with but the party can’t, or no deal at all.

    Either way, the CPRS needs to blocked in the Senate so the opposition can be blamed for Australia’s failure to meet its international climate change obligations at the same time as it tears itself apart. The Labor Party has been in government in the UK for 12 years because the Conservatives have never been able to get their act together on joining Europe; Rudd undoubtedly believes climate change can be his Europe.

    For that, the CPRS needs to be complicated and ugly – something the National Party and right-wing Liberals can’t abide. A simple scheme underpinned by the replacing of Hazelwood and Yallourn with gas turbines simply won’t do. ]

  13. on abc2 they had a brief mention of the tpp figures but spent most time discussing the downward trend of the pm’s approval rating

  14. [Yudhoyono postpones visit to Australia]

    Hey, what’s the problem?

    Who wouldn’t know that’s the headline leading to an ABC article about the latest Australian opinion poll results?

    It’s called the “seek and ye shall find” school of fair and balanced journalism!

  15. Dennis was just doing it by the numbers this morning. You can tell his heart wasn’t in it.

    Faced with having to rationalize a rogue poll he could have admitted it, but chose instead to go the route of a cheap stockmarket spruiker: assume the rises and falls were each based on solid data and sound judgement and then spin it like hell.

    I wonder whether he believes it himself, or whether he’s just obliged to back up the in-house poll as the “benchmark”, come what may. The latter, probably.

    Faced with plenty of reasons for the poll two weeks ago to stay up (e.g. like the other polls did) they invented pressures and crises to explain it going down. Faced with plenty of reasons for the poll to stay down this week (e.g. the deal with the SRs they decried so vehemently), they spin its going back up by waffling on about voter confusion, returning to the old standby, “Turnbull’s performance”. Dennis even mentions the dreaded Essential Research poll as agreeing with Newspoll – as if that meant anything more than ER stayed accurate right through, while Newspoll went on a bender for a fortnight – girls, booze, good times and the end of the honeymoon – with ER stayed tucked up safely in bed getting a decent night’s rest.

    For that’s what happened: the other polls continued on their boring way, like good polls should. The only one to let the team down was Newsey, but his mate Dennis can’t admit it and will stick up for him through thick and thin. After all, that’s what mates are for.

    What we are seeing is a muted, but nonetheless definite attempt to maintain Newspoll’s “benchmark” or “oracle” status by refusing to countenance that it can make the same mistakes as other polls. We’re supposed to visualize 800,000 sets of feet rushing from one side of the ship to another, and then 400,000 of them changing their minds and rushing back, all in two weeks, based on not very much evidence except one set of dodgy numbers that don’t match the rest of the available data. Apart from working on Diogenes – who last revealed that he thought Newspoll was Nostradamus in disguise, picking up trends two weeks in advance of everyone else – not too many people should be fooled by Dennis’ attempt at post-poll hysteria.

    I for one am disappointed that the recalcitrant’s on-board the OV weren’t brought back to Oz and frog marched into the local remand centre for their troubles (and the troubles they caused Australian politics). It would have been exceptional treatment for an exceptional set of hotheads, ending an emergency situation with a suitably one-off solution. Neat, popular and appropriate, I’d have thought.

    Instead we have the whole thing just merging back into the primeval soup of boat people folklore, leaving a vague impression of indecisiveness (whether deserved or not) on the part of our government and the promise of a harder time for the poor buggers who weren’t lucky enough to nearly drown without trace and then get miraculously rescued by an Australian government ship. Arond the cornflakes bowls this morning people are saying (if they’re saying anything at all): “There’s gratitude for you, and we don’t want these people coming here, do we?”. For once I agree with them, or at least I’m on the same page, which is a big admission.

    Yes, I know I rail on about “too many tests” for Rudd, but I think the OV saga was a genuine one, even if of low real import. As a hypothetical, the question was this:

    [ “What would you do as Prime Minister if one of your rescue ships got constructively hijacked by a bunch of smartarsed refugees?

    (a) Ask the Indonesians to take them over on your behalf;
    (b) Shoot them;
    (c) Forgive them and offer them especially generous treatment;
    (d) Pay them off;
    (e) Bore them to death;
    (f) Other    ]

    Rudd had a go at (a), (b), (d) and (e), coming out of this looking like he didn’t have clue. Not having a clue is OK in emergency situations (as long as that state doesn’t last too long) but Rudd wanted it to look like he had a master plan up his sleeve, so refused to do anything while he worked it out, spinning this inactivity as “infinite patience”. I guess he didn’t want to upset SBY. That worked out well, didn’t it?

    TTH wanted the Customs Officers to use their weapons training and go in with guns blazing: complete overkill, but TTH and his ilk are not known for their deep thinking, especially when it comes to confessing to be a Rudd voter, but ignoring the “Boat People” chapter of Labor policy. Us latte-drinking, chardonnay-sipping, corduroy-wearing, cloth-capped, inner-city hippies of the Far Left are better off without his vote, methinks.

    A few Greens here and there went for (c), believing that anyone who claims to be a refugee should be instantly believed, placed automatically right up there sitting next to Mary McKillop and Bob Brown on the beatification list as they wait for 60% emissions reductions and Lindsay Tanner’s seat to fall into their laps. As if.

    Me? I went for “(f) Other”.

    It’s just lucky for all of us that Turnbull and his motley crew of demagogues and dog-whistlers careened off the page and plumped for for “(h) Howard”, or things might have been a little more evenly balanced, pollwize. As it turned out, Howard – another man who could never admit he was wrong, and informs us of this at every opportunity – was off hectoring a bowling club lunchtime Politics Club full of geriatrics (or was it the Sydney Institute?… same thing anyway) almost but not quite drowned out by the sound of the pokies from the tastefully set out “Las Vegas Casino” in the next room, as was not available for further comment.

    If I was marking Rudd’s effort, I’d give him a B+ with a “Could do better” scrawled across the bottom of the page. I’d hate to think of what would happen if we ever got confronted with a real emergency.

    Turnbull has his own emergency. The Evil Day of CPRS is almost upon him but the Party Of Denial shows little sign of being in a deal-making mood. Those tears of Malcolm’s yesterday seemed a tad too heartfelt for the occasion. Sobs one, two and three could be written off to Little Malco losing his Mum’s affection all those years ago, but the rest could likely have been a natural reaction to the dreadful state he finds himself and his mob in with the people. When you’re bucking for Prime Minister a state of ennui towards your prospects out there in Voterlan is not a good look.

    And on that particular metric, Newspoll was (at last) absolutely right.

    TTH

  17. BB

    [Apart from working on Diogenes – who last revealed that he thought Newspoll was Nostradamus in disguise, picking up trends two weeks in advance of everyone else – not too many people should be fooled by Dennis’ attempt at post-poll hysteria.]

    I must say I’m confused by that comment. If you look at Possum’s Pollytrend, you will notice that Labor’s TPP vote has been dropping since Oct 1, which is 6 weeks ago. 6 weeks is longer than 2 weeks.

    And Rudd’s satisfaction rating has dropped 11%, with his dissatisfaction rating rising 10% over the last 4 weeks. Again, four weeks is longer than 2 weeks.

    The OV/AS thing has been going on for about 6 weeks. The roguish Newspoll wasn’t Nostradamus.

  20. [What business is it of the Opposition’s? SBY is NOT coming to see Malcolm.]

    Julie Bishop has to say something – as usual she makes absolutely no sense.

  22. BB, dear…

    [I’d hate to think of what would happen if we ever got confronted with a real emergency.]

    We did have one, it was called the GFC, and Rudd did fine.

    Don’t let rhetorical flourishes go to your head!

  24. Grog

    [(c) Forgive them and offer them especially generous treatment;

    A few Greens here and there went for (c),]

    I don’t recall the shooting either. And BB seems to have missed the fact that (c) was Rudd’s solution.

  26. dave 162

    Concerned as I am about the exemptions, it isn’t as simple as Kohler says. The objective should be to close the brown coal plants, especially HAzlewood and Yalourn. But that isn’t enough. We need an ETS to set a cap to total emissions, so that they don’t just grow back via gas power emissions replacing brown coal. Ultimately it will require some rationalisation of the foreign-owned-aluminium company subsidisation industry, under which we donate hundreds of millions in under priced power to Comalco and their kin every year.

  32. Quelle Surprise, ladies and gents!
    Barely a mention of today’s Newspoll on Sydney radio, in comparison to 2 weeks ago, when the shock jocks were in celebration mode!
    😆

  34. Gus, yes, MacArthur would be fuming in his grave as well. Remember Iwo Jima!!!

    [Those tears of Malcolm’s yesterday seemed a tad too heartfelt for the occasion. ]

    He was actually crying about himself, his low poll numbers and nobody appreciates his greatness.

  35. I assume the Coalition voted against it in the HOR, as they said they would.

    Is the vote likely to happen today in the Senate or will it take a few days or even into next week?

    This is actually important, not like 78 AS.

    Is it going to pass?

    Pass the popcorn!

  36. Diogenes, I think the prospects of it passing are very small, because I doubt Turnball could get any deal through a partyroom full of sceptics!

  37. [Obama isn’t the first president to bow before a foreign dignitary: Bill Clinton also bowed to Akihito; Nixon bowed to his father, Emperor Showa (also known as Hirohito), and Eisenhower bowed to French President Charles de Gaulle. ]

    Eisenhower bowed to the french????

  40. (c) Forgive them and offer them especially generous treatment;

    That was Rudd’s solution

    (b) shoot them

    That was the Indonesian solutions. Rudd have backed off that

    In my opinion, these people are blackmailing Australia into accepting them, I do not want a single one of them to ever set foot into Australia

  41. Dave at 168, I like it. Swapping to gas with 70% less emissions will buy us a lot of time 10-15 years upon which we can adjust with the rest of the world, and will be seen as cleaning up our act to a certain degree. Enough to put pressure on others to fall into line…..but we are but a piss ant on the world stage….then again we are the only ones with a growing econmoy so he have gained enough kudos from that for the other countries to pay attention.

  43. This morning on (6am-ish) Newsradio the focus was on the notion that the PM’s approval rating had “plummeted”. This is very strange language indeed to describe a number which has not changed.

    Despite this, I usually find Newsradio to be much more “fair and balanced” than, say, RN. Yesterday in an interview with Nick Minchin, the interviewer actually challenged his assertion that “the [AGW/climate] science is far from settled”. Alleged journalists too often let such outrageous statements go without a word.

  45. The last I heard was that their tactic was to talk it out for the next two weeks, refuse to allow a vote, and refuse to come back for extra sittings, thus dodging a decision until next year. Rudd would have a good case that this was “failure to pass” in terms of the DD, but no-one seems to think that Rudd will ask for one. Alternatively, a deal may be struck between Wong and Macfarlane that Turnbull can put to his partyroom next week, if he dares.

  48. [Rudd would have a good case that this was “failure to pass” in terms of the DD, but no-one seems to think that Rudd will ask for one.]

    If the boats stop due to the monsoon season, I reckon he might just do it…

  49. [The last I heard was that their tactic was to talk it out for the next two weeks, refuse to allow a vote, and refuse to come back for extra sittings, thus dodging a decision until next year.]

    Looks like a lot of popcorn gets thrown out.

    StephenD

    [This morning on (6am-ish) Newsradio the focus was on the notion that the PM’s approval rating had “plummeted”. This is very strange language indeed to describe a number which has not changed.]

    It’s dropped from 67% to 56% in 6 weeks. I’m not sure how that means it has “not changed”. The PPM hasn’t really changed, showing that Malco’s lack of any meaningful policy is a bit of an issue for him.

  50. While we’re at swithcing to nuclear what about the sink hole in the middle of the desert for the worlds nuclear waste. If we’re going to embrace nuclear why not go the whole hog.
    Isn’t there like dessert on every continent? It might be a worldwide scramble to see who can build a dump first. Now there’s a challenge!!! What about turning Afhanistan into one? There’s a solution for that war torn country…giving them an opportunity to earn an honest quid.

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