Newspoll: 56-44

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor bouncing from last fortnight’s 52-48 quirk to 56-44. Interesting to note that Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings were unaffected by the upheaval: while the two-party rating went from 59-41 to 52-48 to 56-44, preferred prime minister went from 65-19 to 63-19 to 63-22. More to follow. Also:

• Essential Research‘s two-party figure has lurched from 59-41 to 55-45, the lowest lead for Labor in its 18 months of operation. These figures combine two weeks of polling, suggesting a particularly sharp drop was recorded in the most recent survey. Further questions in the survey focus on issues of national importance, party best able to handle various economic issues (Coalition leads Labor on “government debt” by 24 points), importance of a national broadband network (high) and who should run it (the feds or failing that Telstra), which kinds of organisations are the most influential (media and the banks) and whether emissions trading scheme legislation should be delayed until after Copenhagen (slight lean to yes).

• Full results from Saturday’s Newspoll survey of marginal Queensland seats here. Labor holds remarkably consistent 3 to 4 per cent leads across all of them, including three they hold, two they don’t and one (Dickson) which the redistribution has changed from Liberal to notional Labor.

• The Greens have published a Galaxy survey on attitudes to climate change, the dubiousness of which is explored by Andrew Norton.

• Kirsty Needham of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Werriwa MP Chris Hayes has received support from the state secretaries of the Right faction Transport Workers Union and Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. A deal at federal level gives Werriwa to the Left in exchange for a clear run for the Right in Fowler, leaving Hayes to contest marginal Macarthur.

• Alex Easton of the Northern Star names Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout as a potential Liberal candidate for (federal) Richmond.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,811 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

Comments Page 3 of 37
1 2 3 4 … 37

  1. [The MSM really have nowhere to go with this Newspoll. Either they have to acknowledge the last Newspoll was a rogue or Labor has made a remarkable comeback. Neither option will be particularly palatable for them.]

    Told you 😉

  2. Vera, There’s probably just the one journo at the ABC site till the morning and he/she might be busy with their Facebook page maintenance.

  4. [I notice they mention Rudd’s media sweep in the OO’s Newspoll report. Geez Rudd’s persuasive. Oh, hang on, this is the same bloke they criticise for being boring and long winded.]

    Yes, apparently all Rudd has to do is hit the airwaves and he can pick up 4% 2PP! The man is a political god 🙂

  5. I think Newspoll is about right – 55-45 or 56-44 is the norm, has been for months!
    Of course Milne, Shanahan and their other hacks won’t be happy, there goes “The Honeymoon is definitely over” headlines they wanted to run! :;

  6. “There you go, the media through its persistent attack on Labor with AS, assisted by the ABC and the mixed dog whistles of the Liberals has managed to muddy enough water to get a little trend downwards.”

    Yeah because the 1400% increase in boatpeople over 2008 is not Rudd’s fault.

    Come off it already… he’s in government… he’s screwed up, now he’s getting criticism. Thats how it works.

  7. [Vera, There’s probably just the one journo at the ABC site till the morning and he/she might be busy with their Facebook page maintenance.]

    Or polishing Janet’s boardroom chair

  8. [How long before the Usual Suspects put out the conspiracy theory that Labor rigged the Newspoll?]

    Conversely, Bob Ellis will have to retract his silly conspiracy theory from two weeks ago.

  10. Only the dear ABC give more airtime to Turnball’s speech today – you’d be forgiven for thinking he’s the PM(I guess in the eyes of the ABC journos, he is).
    😆

  11. Tom
    The reason for the comeback was Rudd’s panic stricken run on the airways don’t ya know?
    [In the previous Newspoll primary vote support for Labor plunged by 7 percentage points, a result that appeared to spook the Prime Minister, who immediately undertook a saturation campaign defending the government’s border control policies on talkback radio.]

  14. [Vera, There’s probably just the one journo at the ABC site till the morning and he/she might be busy with their Facebook page maintenance.]

    Nah, they’re waiting for the Newspoll pdf to be downloade on the single 1200 Baud modem which is shared amongst the entire Ultimo complex 🙂

  18. “What about the 10000% increase in 2007 under Howard?”

    There was no 10000% increase under Howard.

    There was a 99.99% decrease under Howard in 2002 however after the highly successful Pacific Solution was introduced.

  21. [What about the 10000% increase in 2007 under Howard?]

    Dario, don’t ya know, Howard stopped ALL boats!
    So says the MSM and the Liberals, how could they be wrong? 😉

  25. The one thing I agree with TTH about is this tiresome preoccupation with the ABC and its biases. Who gives a toss what’s on AM or Lateline? Only the elite get their news from the ABC, and the elite are already fixed in their political views. (I get my news from Lolcats, it’s always fair and balanced.)

  26. Being serious for a minute!
    One thing that probably helped Rudd and Labor in the last fortnight?
    The Rodent bobbing his head up again and spouting his “tough on boat people” mantra.
    The Liberals still haven’t worked out that the very mention and reminder of Howard loses them more votes. 😀

  27. There was a 99.99% decrease under Howard in 2002 however after the highly successful Pacific Solution was introduced.

    You do know that the pacific solution was merely an exercise in bastardizing statistics don’t you? Possum on his pollytics blog has a good analysis of it all from a number of weeks back, if you feel like digging through his blog.

  28. And, what happened to this supposedly explosive research Milne was boasting about in yesterday’s News Ltd Sunday rags? Another figment of the poisoned dwarf’s imagination? 😉

  29. the pacific solution failed, the TPVs failed, everything the Libs did failed. The only way they “stopped” the boats was to tow them back to Indonesia – Downer admitted this himself.

  30. [Being serious for a minute!
    One thing that probably helped Rudd and Labor in the last fortnight?
    The Rodent bobbing his head up again and spouting his “tough on boat people” mantra.
    The Liberals still haven’t worked out that the very mention and reminder of Howard loses them more votes. :D]

    Plus Turnbull’s “Back to the Future” announcement on TPV’s as well 🙂

  31. [The Liberals still haven’t worked out that the very mention and reminder of Howard loses them more votes.]

    Sacrilege! Blasphemer! Liberals worship Honest John!

  32. [Sacrilege! Blasphemer! Liberals worship Honest John!]

    And the Court Dynasty in WA despite Sir Charles falling off the perch.

  34. And, despite the media ranting on and on about “Kevin 747”, I think Rudd gets marks from the public for attending all these overseas forums and taking leadership roles – makes him look prime ministerial.

  36. How soon before another NSW Newspoll?
    Should be interesting to see if Rees gets a lift from sacking Tripodi and “Sir Lunchalot” Macdonald.
    😀

  37. The”Truth”Hurts still hasn’t fessed up to attending a metro uni and membership of ALSF? Come on buddy, I’d love to continue debating VSU once we’ve confirmed where you’re coming from!

  41. It would seem so. At least the liberal students (few as they were) during my time had the courage of conviction to admit their biases. Young Tories just ain’t what they used to be.

  44. [One thing that probably helped Rudd and Labor in the last fortnight?
    The Rodent bobbing his head up again and spouting his “tough on boat people” mantra.]

    No. The low Newspoll was a rogue they tried to exploit for all it was worth. The next one… they withheld the figures on some phoney pretext (probably showed all systems normal). This one they had no excuse, so they had to publish it.

    There’s has been no bounce (or no pothole). Just normal.

    The little hypothetical they ran on Rudd’s response to asylum seekers seems to have turned to dust, for which I am truly grateful. That’s just about the last shot in the cannon.

    TTH: with all the really important stuff going on now that Parliament’s back, your constant carping on about asylum seekers sounds a little lonely. The voters have not been particularly impressed. A few have scurried back under the Libs’ coat tails, but generally speaking, all is well.

    You should feel vindicated. After all, you voted for Rudd, didn’t you? You knew what he was going to do re. AS and he did it. What’s your problem?

  46. If the next set of polls stabilise at 56/44 then I reckon this is more of a problem than the previous string of higher polls.

    I think I mentioned before that this AS stuff was the last bullet in the Libs/murdoch shoot Rudd chamber. After weeks of saturated negative line against the Govt and Rudd it seems the most that they have achieved is maybe a 1% drop and, I think some of that is the way Rudd handled the media/politics.

    I personally did not like them caving so quickly to the unique OV emotional blackmail, it is was a bad look and sign all round. Better to stand firm until there was no choice because of the imposition placed on Indonesia. People would understand that, rather than giving in to economic refugee shoppers.

    The issue is still there for Rudd to take hold of, as nobody seems to have confronted the issue honestly with the public and have been ducking and weaving in the shadows.

    This is one serious political issue Rudd’s strategy team should have foreseen and set to diffuse early in the piece, when there was a bit of a lull in the boat arrivals. Better to attack it and address it honestly without the emotive symbol of a bunch of boats off the coast. The ball is still in Rudd’s court to own this issue and it doesn’t mean there has to be a ‘harsh’ solution.

    The real worry now for the Libs and their friends if this last bullet has failed to put a puncture in Labor’s balloon it is hard to know what will. Labor now owns all the other issues according to the polls.

  47. “Possum on his pollytics blog has a good analysis of it all from a number of weeks back, if you feel like digging through his blog.”

    Read it, and disagreed with the numbers for reasons I have pointed out previously.

    “The”Truth”Hurts still hasn’t fessed up to attending a metro uni and membership of ALSF? Come on buddy, I’d love to continue debating VSU once we’ve confirmed where you’re coming from!”

    Went to JCU which I believe had one of the highest compulsorary union fee’s in the country.

    “VSU” is spin words BTW, it stands for Voluntarily Student Unionism… therefore it gives something to protest against, rather than having to protest for something… like gee a $400 tax on poor uni students.

  49. TheTruthHurts
    Posted Monday, November 16, 2009 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    [“There you go, the media through its persistent attack on Labor with AS, assisted by the ABC and the mixed dog whistles of the Liberals has managed to muddy enough water to get a little trend downwards.”

    Yeah because the 1400% increase in boatpeople over 2008 is not Rudd’s fault.

    Come off it already… he’s in government… he’s screwed up, now he’s getting criticism. Thats how it works.]

    Yarn…..

    And I hope the right wing panic merchants in the Labor party are brought under control by the adults.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 37
1 2 3 4 … 37