Newspoll: 56-44

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor bouncing from last fortnight’s 52-48 quirk to 56-44. Interesting to note that Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings were unaffected by the upheaval: while the two-party rating went from 59-41 to 52-48 to 56-44, preferred prime minister went from 65-19 to 63-19 to 63-22. More to follow. Also:

• Essential Research‘s two-party figure has lurched from 59-41 to 55-45, the lowest lead for Labor in its 18 months of operation. These figures combine two weeks of polling, suggesting a particularly sharp drop was recorded in the most recent survey. Further questions in the survey focus on issues of national importance, party best able to handle various economic issues (Coalition leads Labor on “government debt” by 24 points), importance of a national broadband network (high) and who should run it (the feds or failing that Telstra), which kinds of organisations are the most influential (media and the banks) and whether emissions trading scheme legislation should be delayed until after Copenhagen (slight lean to yes).

• Full results from Saturday’s Newspoll survey of marginal Queensland seats here. Labor holds remarkably consistent 3 to 4 per cent leads across all of them, including three they hold, two they don’t and one (Dickson) which the redistribution has changed from Liberal to notional Labor.

• The Greens have published a Galaxy survey on attitudes to climate change, the dubiousness of which is explored by Andrew Norton.

• Kirsty Needham of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Werriwa MP Chris Hayes has received support from the state secretaries of the Right faction Transport Workers Union and Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. A deal at federal level gives Werriwa to the Left in exchange for a clear run for the Right in Fowler, leaving Hayes to contest marginal Macarthur.

• Alex Easton of the Northern Star names Tweed mayor Joan van Lieshout as a potential Liberal candidate for (federal) Richmond.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,811 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  2. But Malcolm Turnbull has clawed back support from uncommitted voters, rising from 19 per cent to 22 per cent on the better PM question.

    In the previous Newspoll primary vote support for Labor plunged by 7 percentage points,
    “The interesting thing about Malcolm is he is rebuilding back to the levels before UteGate,” he said.]

    poor malcolm.

  7. [The Prime Minister is still riding high with 63 per cent support on the question of who would make the better PM, unchanged from the previous Newspoll.]
    Honeymooners!!! :kiss:

  9. Robot

    Google the word.
    From wiki
    “A dichotomy is any splitting of a whole into exactly two non-overlapping parts.

    In other words, it is a partition of a whole (or a set) into two parts (subsets) that are:

    * mutually exclusive: nothing can belong simultaneously to both parts, and
    * jointly exhaustive: everything must belong to one part or the other.

    The two parts thus formed are complements. In logic, the partitions are opposites if there exists a proposition such that it holds over one and not the other.”

    So, the Greens have a position on Climate Change which is different to Labor and Coalition. Therefore there are not simply two non-overlapping parts. There are at least three. Labor is CHOOSING to negotiate with the Coalition, that doesn’t mean that the Greens don’t exist as an alternative.
    It is a false dichotomy to say that we can only choose between the Labor position and the Coalition position.

    “Also please explain how the bottle of water analogy is flawed, bearing in mind that if the Greens stick to their current demand no one is likely to deal with them and that their voter bases is unlikely to increase. The current situation is that majority of the voters simply was not convinced about the 25% target is absolutely necessary.”

    I personally couldn’t think of anything more boring… but just for you I will try.

    The conditions you made above don’t actually matter to show the anaology doesn’t work.
    Your ‘analogy’
    “So you will disregard the water now and hope you find a whole carton of Franklins later?”

    Your analogy requires me to accept the water right now, because we need it right now. It means that I can drink that delicious cool water right now and slake my thirst.

    The CPRS won’t come into effect until 2012, after the next election. So, if your analogy was right we either wouldn’t need the water until 2012 or we won’t get the water until 2012 – and we know we can get that amount of water at that time. We know in late 2010 there will be an election and that most likely the BOP in the Senate will change. Most likely in a positive fashion for both the Govt and the Greens, we can get more water from that combination. Either way we don’t lose by waiting to see.

    For you analogy to be right the CPRS would need to come into effect as soon as it was passed – which would have been last July had it passed.

    Alright I have bored you all enough.

  11. There you go, the media through its persistent attack on Labor with AS, assisted by the ABC and the mixed dog whistles of the Liberals has managed to muddy enough water to get a little trend downwards.

    Now this will be challenge for Rudd, to cease the trend whilst up against the all out campaign by fake news and their abc.

    I wish him luck.

  12. [“But the Prime Minister’s support as the better prime minister has remained high in 11 consecutive Newspolls.”]

    And Malcolm has climbed an astronomical 3 points to 22!! How is Glenn Milne going to spin this.

  17. Oh and does the media still suffer from a cultural cringe? Rudd is confident and respected on the international stage, does Australia proud and happens to enjoy it (something to do with superiors skills)…so this is a bad thing according to some.

  20. So Labor has increased its lead in the latest Newspoll.

    I bet they published these figures through gritted teeth. Considering they seemed to have withheld the last set of 2pp figures.

    Wonder if the ABC will cover this story in the morning, and the angle they’ll put on it. Gritted teeth again come to mind.

    Speaking of which, the month+ media campaign of saturation asylum seeker dow-whistling seems to have run out of puff. The Oceanic Viking “crisis” is on the way to resolution, and I daresay people are fed up to the back teeth with hearing about asylum seekers every bulletin, week after week.

    Labor might have received some inoculation on this issue. By that I mean, next time the Liberals try to run this as a fear campaign, people might be inclined to switch off, close their ears, saying, meh, heard it all to the death before.

    The Boy Who Cried Wolf …

  22. Nyah nyah nyah Liberal-Green-Murdoch axis of evil, foiled again. “You think you could out-clever us Labor folk with your silly knees-bent running about advancing behavior? I wave my private parts at your aunties, you heaving lot of second-hand electric donkey-bottom biters! You tiny-brained wipers of other people’s bottoms! And, if you think you got nasty taunting this time, you ain’t heard nothing yet!”

  24. [Someone here pointed out that the figure really is only a continuation of what has been happening since the War.]

    BH, that was me! It’s a dead straight trend line running from 1946 right through to today with, from memory an average population growth figure of 2.4%.

    I would think that various governments over that time have varied the immigration quota to cover for rises and falls in the local birth rate.

    It would be unlikely for any future government to change that unless dramatic climate change forced the issue.

    There would be two alternatives; a fortress Australia scenario or an open doors scenario whereby people displaced by adverse effects of CC in their home country sought to find a safe haven here.

    In either scenario, the small number of boat people seeking asylum here now, would be but a small blip on the radar! It would be the conservatives greatest fear, a genuine “flood”!

  27. Who lost China? the US looney religious Right used to cry. Obama obviously has not found it back for them:

    [Shanghai: Visiting US President Barack Obama said here on Monday that his administration fully supports the one-China policy.

    “I am very pleased with the deduction of tensions and improvement of cross-Strait relations,” Obama told an audience of more than 500 local youths, many of whom students from Fudan University and Tongji University.

    Obama said his “administration fully supports a ‘one-China policy’ on the cross-Strait relations”.

    “With dialogue and negotiations, problems can be solved’, he said, adding economic ties are helping to lower the tensions that date back to before he was born.

    “Some people prefer to look into the past, I prefer to look into the future,” Obama said.

    Cross-Strait ties have improved significantly since the Kuomintang came to power in Taiwan in May 2008.]

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-11/16/content_8979099.htm

  28. [The interesting thing about Malcolm is he is rebuilding back to the levels before UteGate,” he said]

    Utegate.

    They call it Utegate as though the scandal centred round a ute. It didn’t centre around a ute at all. It centred around the Liberal leader and a senior Liberal Senator conspiring with a Liberal mole to bring down the democratically-elected government.

    Liberalgate would therefore be a more appropriate moniker.

  29. [This 8% turnaround will wipe some shiteating grins away in Parliament tomorrow…. won’t it Tony?]

    Vera, you mean the Shitten Housen?

  30. [But Malcolm Turnbull has clawed back support from uncommitted voters, rising from 19 per cent to 22 per cent on the better PM question.]

    He won’t have any fingernails left with clawing like that.

    Tony Jones says Newspoll confirms the last poll was a “rogue result”.

  31. I thought it was you Scorpio and it was a very good piece. Makes the figure of 35mill seem very ordinary.

    We’ve got an almighty thunder storm here at the moment so I’m orf. Have lost 1 PC to lightning and don’t want to do another.

    Can sleep with a smile on the faces tonight bludgers.

  33. Vera, it will be a great pleasure to see the Libs back in the cesspit where they belong tomorrow. And such immaculate timing – tomorrow the CPRS bill comes back to the Senate.

  34. [They call it Utegate as though the scandal centred round a ute. It didn’t centre around a ute at all. It centred around the Liberal leader and a senior Liberal Senator conspiring with a Liberal mole to bring down the democratically-elected government.

    Liberalgate would therefore be a more appropriate moniker.]

    And ties in perfectly with the dismissal video I posted on the previous thread.

    That event cemented me as a 10 yr old to vote Labor, and I have since 1983.

  47. [OO – KEVIN Rudd is back in landslide territory if an election was held according to the latest Newspoll but the trend confirms a fall in two-party preferred support.]
    You’ve got to love this bit of spin.
    Just how does the trend confirm a fall in TPP when this poll compared to the last published Newspoll shows an upward trend?

  48. [So we don’t have to move our border protection policy to the right after all. Vox populi, vox dei.]

    This poll, taken in conjunction with the specific questions in earlier polls, confirms that while the public is not very happy about the way the OV saga has gone, they approve of Rudd’s tough-but-humane line. That means the tough part as well as the humane part. Evans put out a presser today saying that another bunch of SLs has been sent home from XI.
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26352990-29277,00.html

  50. So the honeymoon is back on?
    Oh yes, QT tomorrow will be a joy to watch, particularly the downcast looks on the faces of the Liberal front bench!

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