Following last week’s surprising and almost certainly rogue Newspoll result, The Australian sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. However, when the results were published yesterday, all that was offered was attitudinal results on asylum seekers – although breakdowns by party support made clear that voting intention had also been ascertained. This sent Gary Morgan on the offensive:
Newspoll should have conducted another poll as soon as possible when they saw the dramatic change in their results – and if different, released the data to correct the misconceptions caused by their “rogue” poll … A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues – specifically the breakdown by “Political support” – suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong. The percentage supporting each political party clearly should have been released. Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda by selectively releasing polling data. Polls and their publishers are powerful but with that power comes responsibility.
Queried by Andrew Crook of Crikey, The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force. Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases. Yet just one month ago, on the same day that Nielsen produced its regular monthly poll, The Australian published a “special Newspoll survey” on the Liberal leadership in between its regular fortnightly polls, and was not in the least bit shy about informing us that the sample produced the same 58-42 split in favour of Labor as recorded the previous week. In fairness, it should be noted that Crikey “understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian”.
My own concern with all this is that I was hoping for a new poll result to hang my regular set of electoral updates off, and didn’t get one. Here they are:
• The saga surrounding the YouTube Downfall parody aimed at Mitchell MP Alex Hawke over his feud with former Right ally and state upper house MP David Clarke has lifted a rock on preselection manoeuvres for safe Liberal state seats. Hawke-Hitler is portrayed in the video castigating himself for having backed Hills Shire councillor Andrew Jefferies to depose incumbent Wayne Merton in Baulkham Hills. The Clarke forces have been hoping the seat might instead go to Damien Tudehope, who has a not inconsiderable public profile as spokesman for the NSW Family Association – and whose son Thomas has just resigned as Malcolm Turnbull’s media adviser after being linked to the aforesaid YouTube video. The infamous episode where 40 Clarke supporters showed up at a Young Liberal branch meeting at Hawke’s office, prompting Hawke’s staff to call the police, reportedly occurred as part of efforts to secure Baulkham Hills for Tudehope. In Castle Hill, Clarke faction operative Dominic Perrottet (whose brother Charles has just resigned as Clarke’s chief-of-staff after he too was linked to the YouTube video) has been plotting to depose incumbent Michael Richardson. On the other side of the pendulum, Hawke is apparently backing another ally, state Young Liberals president Scott Farlow, for the seat of Drummoyne (which Labor’s Angela D’Amore holds by a margin of 7.6 per cent), while Clarke man Kevin Conolly hopes to again contest Riverstone, where he ran against Labor’s John Aquilina in 2007.
• Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reveals the identity of the abortive Right challenger to Philip Ruddock in Berowra: Richard Quinn, a Hunters Hill councillor. A Ruddock supporter specifically identifies Quinn’s backers as “the Taliban faction”, meaning the forces associated with David Clarke. Quinn has “now expressed interest in Bennelong”, which would put him up against former tennis player and unsuccessful Bradfield preselection aspirant John Alexander, plus another previously unheralded entrant in “businessman Mark Chan”.
• Lisa Carty of the Sydney Morning Herald explains Labor’s recent western Sydney preselection shenanigans in terms of a deal in which the Right will retain its hold on Fowler following Julia Irwin’s retirement at the next election, despite the numbers in local branches being finely poised between the two factions. The Right’s favoured candidate for Fowler is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, who was defeated by Louise Markus when he ran in Greenway at the 2004 election. In return for not pursuing a claim in Fowler, the Left will be awarded Werriwa at the expense of Right incumbent Chris Hayes. However, state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite is quoted in the article saying there is “no deal to shift (Hayes) to Macarthur”. That hasn’t stopped an avalanche of reports about whether Werriwa will go to Reid MP Laurie Ferguson, as proposed by Julia Gillard and the soft Left, or Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union organiser Damien Ogden, the candidate of Anthony Albanese and the hard Left.
• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports claims Labor internal polling of 650 voters in Robertson shows Belinda Neal set to be dumped by a swing of “about 20 per cent”, although this has naturally been denied by state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite. The report also quotes Labor sources suggesting recent talk of a run for the premiership by her husband John Della Bosca has been raised for use as a “bargaining chip” to protect Neal’s position.
• The Queensland Liberal National Party has preselected Hajnal Ban, Logan councillor, Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and recipient of an eye-watering Russian surgical procedure to lengthen her legs, as its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. Unsuccessful candidates included Cameron Thompson, the former Liberal member for
Blair (who was presumably handicapped by an understanding that the seat was the domain of the Nationals), and Gold Coast councillor and former children’s television presenter Bob La Castra.
• Former Senator, one-time Democrats leader and blogosphere identity Andrew Bartlett will run for the Greens at the federal election in Brisbane, which Labor’s Arch Bevis holds with a diminished post-redistribution margin against the LNP of 3.8 per cent. Antony Green explains why he won’t win.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports Labor preselection nominations for Canning, Cowan and Swan will close on December 1, and candidates will be chosen by mid-December.
• The Macquarie Street blog of Poll Bludger regular Oz informs us that NSW upper house MP Gordon Moyes, long estranged from the Christian Democratic Party from which he was elected, has announced he is joining Family First.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reports that Anna Bligh will respond to the state’s review on accountability by moving to impose a $1000 cap on political donations unless the federal government does likewise before July 2010, as well as imposing a ban on “success fees” to lobbyists.
Penny and Chainsaw will be the winners if they get the ETS passed not Turnbull 😀
Chainsaw?
[I can’t remember who mentioned it, but there was also the suggestion that the poll results were of great consumer interest.]
That might be moi…not wishing to labour the point, but
I think that Newspoll/Australian own the material in the poll, it is up to them as to whether or not to release it. They can chose not to release, tell everyone to “get artichoked”, and they can accept the consequences for their action in terms of their commercial relationships, business, credibility, propensity to get insults from PB, or heightened sense of infallibility.
However, Crikey is not reporting that they said “get artichoked”.
What Crikey is reporting is:
[Crikey understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian…The Australian’s editor in chief, Chris Mitchell told Crikey that he had decided not to publish on the question of voting intention because he guessed that Nielsen would be polling for the SMH and the Age at the same time.]
Now one can have a view on the probability on this, in particular the “guesswork” in terms of recent historic precedents of evidence to the contrary.
There appear to be 3 options
1. Crikey is misreporting
2. There is an interesting set of circumstances of potentially apparent collusion in the highly oligopolistic polling/media industries
3. They lied
Chainsaw = Ian McFarlane Becaouse of his voice, no doubt.
Yep, Ian Macfarlane,
Someone posted this last night
[He has acquired the nickname “Chainsaw” due to his raspy voice and according to him, his ability to “cut through red tape”.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Macfarlane_(politician)
[Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian…The Australian’s editor in chief, Chris Mitchell told Crikey that he had decided not to publish on the question of voting intention because …]
How can Mitchell decide no to publish something he did not have? If O’Shannessy did not release the tpp to The Australian.
[The CDP is over. Family First is now the minor party of choice for the Fundermentalist Christian Right.]
THM, not really. The CDP is like a hard hard right socially conservative party, while the FFP is like a soft hard right socially conservative party. The CDP polls better in NSW and WA while FFP polls better in SA, Vic, QLD and Tas.
I wonder if Moyes has any personal vote and whether it will carry over from the CDP to the FFP.
And what gives O’Shannessy the right to withhold data that was commissioned by a client? Seems to me that Mitchell was told of the 2PP numbers and said “don’t give it to us – we don’t want that information in our system as we won’t be able to dress it up in a credible way.
Minchin is in the shadow cabinet. Doesn’t that mean that he can’t cross the floor or else he’ll be forced to resign? But at the same time he politically can’t backflip, nor does he want to. If the partyroom agrees to support the bill then he and other open denialists in shadow cabinet are totally snookered!
Incidently, I have just been polled again(!) by Millward and Brown, this time on State Issues. 2nd time in three days.
The pollster confirmed that the poll had been commissioned by the Victorian State government. The questions focussed on:
population growth and its impact on the provision of services
Water management
Bushfire management
Police, law and order
I would have thought Macfarlane’s support of farmers in opposition to the tough land-clearing laws introduced by the Beattie government might have something to do with ‘Chainsaw’, but seeing as they mostly used massive chains connected to two tractors I could be wrong.
[Minchin is in the shadow cabinet. Doesn’t that mean that he can’t cross the floor or else he’ll be forced to resign? But at the same time he politically can’t backflip, nor does he want to. If the partyroom agrees to support the bill then he and other open denialists in shadow cabinet are totally snookered!]
Looks like another late night spent in a Senate toilet block while the vote takes place
That toilet block is going to be a bit crowded going by the 4 Corners program.
Going by all the other polls I would hazard a guess that a Newspoll taken last weekend would have returned 57/58.
Anyway Newspoll works to order and supplies the product to whoever asks and pays. What the then owner of the product does with it after that is up to them though they now know people are watching and can see BS when it is about.
I don’t particularly care that the TPP wasn’t published, if it was produced, the other polls told us where we were at. We already know that media play with whatever toy they get to suit their own ends and agenda…and suffer our complaint if we think they are playing bs games.
If I were Newspoll I would be a bit upset that their reputation is coming under scrutiny for nothing they have done.
An outlier is an outlier and not a rigged poll. We should remember that Newspoll published a horrible poll for Howard not long before the election that just about gave him a mental breakdown.
[We should remember that Newspoll published a horrible poll for Howard not long before the election that just about gave him a mental breakdown.]
That should be Newspoll produced a very bad poll for Howard just before the election…the OO I think published it.
[That should be Newspoll produced a very bad poll for Howard just before the election…the OO I think published it.]
I thought it was the GG…
TP
Was that the infamous APEC poll which almost toppled Howard?
The sequence in 2007 was
55 55 56
19/21 October
58
54 53 55 54
Yes that was the APEC and the dark night of the soul for Howard….and the famous hotel meeting. I think it was that week.
If you are polling 42/58 one month from an election…you would have to be having very dark thoughts if your whole life was politics.
Howard always had very dark thoughts.
[The young lady who questioned Rudd on the AS last night suggested afterwards you cannot be tough and fair. She said they don’t go together. I’ve known people who have been very tough but also very fair in their dealings.]
William on this blog for one!
I’m going to assume it was 56+, and the reasno they didn’t publish it is much as William suggested, they were too gutless to do sa becasue it would show that the previous poll was an outlier. By leaving it till next week, they can explain away a 56+ poll as occuring due to Lib infighting on 4 corners etc etc.
That APEC day was covered so wonderfully by Matt Price. He’s been a great loss.
The explanations seem like a crock. The OO has brought forward newspoll a day to compete with neilsen before. Was it Newspoll’s decision or the OO’s?? Are we expected to believe that if it showed another 52/48 or in that order they would not have published?? What about the intregity of publishing an issue based, voting intention based poll without the context of voting intentions to gauge the impact??
Has the OO ever done this before??
I smell a very large rat.
If you are talking about Rupertbots Corp then it is more than one large rat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95c8GXU8_7g
I’m interested to see what Possum and Antony make of it before I get too excited but William’s reading looks the most likely to me.
[The emerging trend is that holding firm to caution and the middle ground is starting to pay dividends…
If the latest xxxx poll results, published nationwide yesterday, are to be believed, the xxxxxx is back to within striking distance on a two-party-preferred vote, with xxxx’s lead dropping from 14 percentage points to six. The result confirms The Australian’s view that the last Newspoll, which saw xxxxsupport jump to a record high against the xxxx, was artificially boosted by the blanket media coverage that weekend of the Opposition Leader’s ]
this is from ????
Diogenes but Newspoll and the OO have given differing explanations. The OO’s explanation is they chose not to publish, not that they never got it. Newspoll says they never gave it to the OO
[By leaving it till next week, they can explain away a 56+ poll as occuring due to Lib infighting on 4 corners etc etc.]
Well yeah, there are vast sections of the media who are stupid enough to believe that 7% of the populace changed their mind in 2 weeks and then changed it back 2 weeks later.
well Toolman on the ABC was talking about a swing back to Labor yesterday. And I agree, they’ll ignore all the other polls as say Newspoll reflected opposition leadership and climate change issues
BTW I assume no one in the MSM has written or spoken about the no newspoll 2PP issue
Don’t forget Rudd’s off to India tonight so the Dwarf is sure to have some concocted scandal ready to hit the OO presses while kev’s back is turned.
Something to be frontpage news over the weekend to get those Newspoll numbers “right” for next Tuesday 😉
Gusface, what are you quoting?
[Well yeah, there are vast sections of the media who are stupid enough to believe that 7% of the populace changed their mind in 2 weeks and then changed it back 2 weeks later.]
And most of them work for…. ?
[Back to the topic: Galaxy is an aberration. The next poll, whether Newspoll, ACNielsen or Morgan – will not replicate it. But that won’t matter: The Australian will spin them into nothing just as it spun the Galaxy Poll into scripture in today’s editorial, from which I quote:
“AS predicted, John Howard’s recent declaration of political annihilation may well have marked the nadir of Coalition pre-election fortunes. The emerging trend is that holding firm to caution and the middle ground is starting to pay dividends…
If the latest Galaxy poll results, published nationwide yesterday, are to be believed, the Government is back to within striking distance on a two-party-preferred vote, with Labor’s lead dropping from 14 percentage points to six. The result confirms The Australian’s view that the last Newspoll, which saw Labor’s support jump to a record high against the Prime Minister, was artificially boosted by the blanket media coverage that weekend of the Opposition Leader’s support for his wife, Therese Rein, and her business dealings. The more accurate trend was shown in the two special Newspoll surveys taken since the May 9 budget, which showed the Coalition gaining slightly and Labor’s primary support starting to wain. If that trend continues, as shown by Galaxy, it means the Government has finally achieved electoral traction after the onset of voter infatuation with Mr Rudd. History shows Labor must now prepare itself for the reality that the Coalition’s fightback has begun.â€
(“Cautious electorate rediscovers Howardâ€, The Australian (editorial) June 05, 2007
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21849004-7583,00.html )]
the person was chris curtis on this thread
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/05/29/idle-speculation-annihilation-edition/comment-page-7/#comments
Love the header!
[Editorial: Cautious electorate rediscovers Howard ]
Reading through this and remembering all the other similar pieces in the Australian during that time, it seems hard now to think that unkind people could “ever” have accused it of being “The Government Gazette”!!!
The Australian, the heart of the nation! Yeah, right!!!;-)
how long before “banarby for pm” as in “joh for canberra” folly starts?
Scoprio, your post really does send a shiver down my spine..
Why is minchin playing his disunity card now….he’s not a leadership prospect,,, correct?
Why is Howard in the news now, doing international TV shows, local newspaper spots, Rudd’s government is do-nothing etc….
Vera
[Don’t forget Rudd’s off to India tonight so the Dwarf is sure to have some concocted scandal ready to hit the OO presses while kev’s back is turned.]
I can see it now “Rudd jaunts off again while ignoring border threat at home”.
Seriously, after printing Rupert Muroch’s empty but nasty threats, not printing a presumably embarrassing NewsPoll, and even helping to facilitate the Godwin Grech fake email scam, The Australian is, as right wing hacks would say, “Objectively Pro-Howard”. I’d say it was pro-Turnbull, but that isn’t really true. If he so much as hints at a policy to the left of Genghis Khan, they will stab him in the back too. They are just Objectively Pro-Howard, in a blind sort of way.
[Don’t forget Rudd’s off to India tonight so the Dwarf is sure to have some concocted scandal ready to hit the OO presses while kev’s back is turned.]
Well it’ll be one of:
a) Rudd’s staff leaving in droves
b) Rudd’s temper
c) Rudd’s trips overseas cost the taxpayers x amount of $$
d) Therese Rein, why hasn’t she taken Rudd’s name? Is there a rift in the marriage????
e) Lib Party internal polling says they can win
f) Penny Wong…. do pinters on struggle street realise a gay lesbian is in charge?
g) ALP backbenchers ready to roll PM
h) Rudd has locked in a double dissollution date
i) Rudd is scared of a double dissolluton
j) Rudd eyes off leadershiop of world governemt after Coppenhagen
or he might just make stuff up.
pinters? try punters!
To reiterate.
News Ltd own the results. They can decide what they do with them.
However, Newspoll have a professional obligation to “take action” if their survey results are publicly misrepresented. It’s written in to the industry Code of Professional Behaviour to which they are a signatory.
If News Ltd have used what appears to be an outlier poll to misrepresent public opinion and a subsequent poll shows this to be the case, then Newspoll have an obligation to set the record straight.
News Ltd are behaving true to form – Newspoll are not and are risking their reputation.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they quietly publish this week’s figures with next weeks
[or he might just make stuff up]
hahahahahaha, post of the week 🙂
[Queried by Andrew Crook of Crikey, The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force. Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases.]
I compliment Crickey and WIlliam for fllowing this up, but I have to say that I find this explanation implausible. NewsPoll publish in News Corp papers, Neilsen publish in Fairfax. The two are locked in a battle for circulation. There is a lot at stake – jobs are being shed in both organisations. Why would they give any help to Fairfax by not publishing? Wouldn’t they prefer to steal their thunder?
Also, why would NewsPoll not hand over the 2PP this particular week? Was that a prior arrangement? Did they really do an extra poll, presumably at some cost to News Corp, and intend not to publish all the results? I don’t buy it. If the 52/48 result had been repeated, they woudl have screamed it from the front page: “RUDD HONEYMOON OVER!”.
[The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force]
As previously mentioned, he’s a blatent liar. They published 3 weeks in a row only last month.
[If the 52/48 result had been repeated, they woudl have screamed it from the front page: “RUDD HONEYMOON OVER!”]
You bet your arse it would have
I just watched four corners on “Mal and the Malcontents”.
Anyone who says the ABC is biased against labor and for the opposition, based on that program, has got rocks in their head.
It was a devastating program for the coalition.
The person who came out of it with the greatest honour, was, in my not so humble opinion, Ian MacFarlane. He was very, very impressive. He came over as having total integrity. Poor man, he has a difficult, if not impossible task ahead of him. But if anyone can do it, he can.
Penny Wong was also impressive. But Ian got more air time than her, it was after all about Mal and the Malcontents.
Barnaby Joyce was not impressive, he seems incapable of compromise, and Nick Minchin came over as too clever by half.
And that SA bloke, Bernardi, was very unimpressive. Seemed shifty.
Wilson Tuckey was as usual, the mad uncle, but we didn’t see much of him.
There seemed to be very little of Mal, really. What there was was not illuminating, either about him or about his leadership of the party. The ABC was neutral in its treatment of him.
A very sad program if you were thinking of voting Liberal or National Party. Especially NP.
[Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases.]
[but I have to say that I find this explanation implausible. NewsPoll publish in News Corp papers, Neilsen publish in Fairfax. The two are locked in a battle for circulation. There is a lot at stake – jobs are being shed in both organisations.]
Crikey, Socrates! Haven’t you heard of “core” and “non-core” promises? 😉
It must be time to start asking about the Case of the Missing Newspoll on the OO blogs and see what happens. Suggesting that they hide polls that they don’t like the result of should have some impact.