Nielsen: 56-44

The keenly awaited monthly Nielsen poll of 1400 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead down just slightly to 56-44 from 57-43 a month ago. Likewise, Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 45 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 68 per cent and his disapproval is up five to 28 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up two points to 37 per cent, and his disapproval is steady on 53 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 69-23 to 68-22. Michelle Grattan provides further details on responses to asylum seeker policies:

As the effort to persuade the 78 Sri Lankans on the Oceanic Viking to disembark in Indonesia continues, 47 per cent of Australians disapprove of how the Prime Minister is handling the asylum-seeker issue; 45 per cent approve … Nearly two-thirds of Coalition voters disapproved, compared with one-third of Labor voters and just over half the Greens supporters … just 13 per cent thought the Government’s asylum-seeker policy was too harsh; 37 per cent said it was about right. Only 6 per cent of Coalition voters and 14 per cent of ALP voters said the policies were too hard. Labor voters were more than twice as likely to rate the policies too soft as too harsh. Nearly four in 10 Greens voters said they were too harsh.

UPDATE: The Australian offers results from that follow-up Newspoll we’ve been hearing about, but at this stage at least there are no figures on voting intention. It instead focuses on attitudes to asylum seeker policy, with results that largely echo those of last week’s Essential Research survey: 53 per cent disapprove of the government’s handling of the issue against 31 per cent approve, but only 22 per cent believe the Coalition would do a better job against 21 per cent for Labor. Forty-six per cent believe the government’s response has been too soft against 16 per cent too hard.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research: 59-41, i.e. unchanged on the last few weeks. However, Rudd’s approval ratings have taken a hit. Further questions on interest rates and yet another one on whether the government’s asylum seeker policies are tough, weak or just right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44”

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  3. Diogenes,

    [That was an OO accusation made with no evidence. The AS boat was not in sight of any ship when the distress call went out, Australian or otherwise, so I greatly doubt that they tried to sink their boat when it could mean drowning. For all they knew, an Indonesian ship could have answered the call.]

    I think something most people don’t realise is that the boats being used by people smugglers are for all intents and purposes, disposable!

    They are not recycled by being sent back to Indonesia to be re-loaded with another lot of Asylum seekers, they are stripped of engines, unused fuel and any equipment which may be toxic or hazardous and taken out and sunk!

    As such, they are not very seaworthy, being close to the end of their useful life and are generally not designed for long, open ocean voyages. They are mostly designed and used for fishing in calm and closer inshore waters. It is a wonder that most don’t successfully make it all the way to Christmas Island.

    Another consideration is that these are tropical ocean waters which are subject to regular severe tropical storms and if anyone has been in one of these on a smallish boat as I have, they can be extremely dangerous to the safety of even a sound, well designed boat and are a terrifying experience.

    Many of these boats over the past ten years or so have foundered in such conditions as did the one with the supposed holes in it although plugged. I would suspect that most of them would leave Indonesia in a similar fashion, ie a number of holes are drilled through the hull when slipped and plugged so that these plugs can be punched out if an opportunity presents itself to force a rescue in the case that they might not be taken directly to CI or mainland Australia.

    It would only be done with rescue handy, certainly not in the case of the boat last week which was hundreds of kilometres from potential rescue and in the wrong rescue zone anyway!

  4. [They need daily left bloggers, along the lines of Tim Dunlop who had a daily blog in the OO till he called it quits last year.]

    And he used to get a huge number of interesting comments. Some of the discussions on financial knowledge were excellent. Still miss Margo tho. Loved her from the minute she hit Canberra – she wouldn’t fit into the mould of some of them who are there now. It’s all a bit “hillbillyish” – the Gallery is far too incestuous.

    Thanks for the CC time, Vera.

  9. Poss 125 HC 195

    I hope Andrew Bartlett does well standing for the Greens. I see him as more moderate than some current green MPs, but still with a social conscience. He was a consistent critic of Workchoices, which I respect him for. He should bring some of his broader social inclusion views with him, in which case he could broaden the Greens appeal.

    Poss do you have views on his chances in the seat of Brisbane? Is there any chance he could pass LNP to get into second place? I note from Antony’s calculator that Brisbane now has notionaly a 3.8% margin. So I presume the Libs would have no chance of passing that, but if Bartlett coudl get past gambaro he coudl take it on preferences. Brisbane is an inner city esat now, like Melbourne, so the electorate might be more sympathetic to Bartlett’s views. (I have nothing against Arch Bevis, but it woud be nice to get an MP from a third force into the lower house.)

  10. [Is Abbott for real? What an absolute joke.]
    Abbott has absolutely no credibility on this issue, he was the first minister since 1961 to be suspended from the House of Representatives for abusing the opposition leader while a general warning had been called.

  11. Another thing people are missing in regards the boat that foundered off Cocos Island, that boat called for assistance because it was in difficulties. The seas were rough and I suspect it was taking on water because of stress on an aging hull and probably waves coming over the side (they don’t have much freeboard).

    The boat capsized when in the process of a rescue boat attempting to take the AS’s on board in very rough conditions. It is easy to see how this happened, for if anyone saw that boat on the news yesterday, where most of the people were on one side of the boat, it caused the boat to lean heavily to that side.

    It is a natural thing for people being rescued to move to the side of the boat that the rescue craft is on and in rough conditions with the boat already being unstable because of water taken on board, then it is as good as a done thing that the boat will founder, which it did unfortunately.

  12. [LABOR faces a big defeat in Belinda Neal’s federal electorate of Robertson if she stands for the seat, according to secret research shown to union secretaries last week by Labor’s general secretary, Matt Thistlethwaite.

    The research showed that a swing against John Della Bosca and/or Ms Neal in a lower house seat in the Gosford area would be about 20 per cent, two sources at the meeting have told the Herald.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/poll-predicts-labor-loss-if-neal-stands-20091108-i3k4.html

  14. Seems Kevin’s visit to Kerry Stokes’ holiday home in Broome was worth the effort:

    [“I am pleased to report that Seven Network Limited has come through a tough twelve months for the economy, and is in good shape today,” Mr Stokes told shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting in Sydney.

    Mr Stokes said the federal government’s fiscal stimulus and bank guarantee had left Australia in a “unique position” and the “envy of the world”.

    “Today, we are seeing the recovery and economic stability returning,” Mr Stokes said.]

    The Libs will write Stokes off as a fellow traveller, running dog of the Left, Labor hack etc. etc. Good one Kevvo.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/envy-of-the-world–stokes-praises-stimulus-20091109-i4fx.html

  15. The federal electorate of Robertson was always going to be hard for Labor to hold. They needed everything to go perfectly to hold that.

  16. The opposite extrem to the dog-whistle is niaivety. Letting this guy in would be that extreme:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/09/2736790.htm

    Sanjeev Kuhendrarajah was a member of AK Kannan, a violent Sri Lankan drug gang in Toronto in the 1990s. The AK was short for AK47, the gangs favourite weapon. It is debatelble whether Sanjeev has “done his time” – several serious chafrges were dropped after victims were afraid to testify. He was deported from Canada back to Sri Lanka. Canada is still trying to deport some of this gang back to Sri Lanka:
    http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/09/10/10814336-sun.html

  17. [The federal electorate of Robertson was always going to be hard for Labor to hold. They needed everything to go perfectly to hold that.]

    GB
    you are willing to write it off, way before an election??

    tres interesting.

  18. GB

    A very fair assessment from Hartcher.

    There still is the matter of the OV though.

    1. If they get off voluntarily, it will be a win for Rudd.
    2. Forcing them off would be a lose.
    3. Bringing them to Christmas Is would be a lose.

    I’m not sure which would be worse, poll-wise, out of 2 or 3.

    4. I’m still going for the Tamil Nadu Solution which Rudd could sort out when he goes to India this week.

  20. Ratsars@192:

    [I am afraid that I cannot completely agree with you on this, in respect of Jones. I accept that Jones’ first responsibility is to run an “entertaining” show but he also has a responsibility to try and insure that all get a change to put there point of view.]

    All did, in the internet version I saw. I was particularly impressed with David Marr.

    (OT, don’t you think Graham Richardson is looking rather the worse for wear when he will be only 60 this year? Too many lunches maybe).

    [It is a matter of fact that Governments will have the task of explaining to many that doesn’t really want to know the thought process behind a particular idea. To help themselves in this regard we end up with Governments using meaningless phrases to express a policy that could take a ream of paper to explain. Concepts like “working families” and in this case “hard on people smuggles and humane on asylum seekers’ and from the other side” Workchoices” are examples.]

    That’s the job of governments, and they have lots of people to help them. I don’t feel sorry for them.

    [So unless we allow the Government spokesperson an opportunity to develop an argument what we end up with is a show that does nothing and takes us nowhere. Unless a way can be found to allow the Government of the day (which always has the task) of arguing the policy work on any and every issue that arises. If not than shows like Q&A will just become a head kicking opportunity for the Opposition.]

    Government have control of the media and of significant funds in a way that oppositions only dream about. They don’t need time on Tony Jones’ show to strut their stuff, that’s a sideshow. They can decide to do something and actually do it. Rudd’s response to the GFC comes to mind. Worked like a bloody charm, and he’s still getting kudos from world leaders about it.

    The problem for the present opposition is that they can’t even decide what to do even if they were in government.

    [As an example of such conflict in respect of another issue just look at the gulf between the Government and the Opposition arguments in respect of the CPRS. The Government has the task of arguing that climate change is real, it is cause by human activity, that the best way to fix it is a cap and trade scheme. Then they have to explain what a cap and trade scheme is and how it will work etc etc.]

    Look, I am a former maths/science teacher, and even my eyes glaze over when the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme gets talked about in detail. I can’t get my head around it, and I’ll bet more than 95% of Australians are in the same boat, even if they have heard of it, which is doubtful.

    [At the same time the Liberals just argue no, wrong, bulldust, new tax, won’t fix it, green houses gasses are natural and we need CO2 to live etc etc.]

    The libs are in opposition, and think that they therefore have to oppose everything. That was one of St Kev’s strengths in the lead up to the 2007 election, he agreed with what Howard was suggesting, by and large, except for things like kids behind razor wire and Kyoto and saying sorry. Most of what he was different about wrt Howard was cheap or zero cost. Howard was spitting chips because he couldn’t wedge Kev, as he had previous leaders of the Labor party.

    [If we put this in racing terms it is like putting a 120K jockey along with a keg of beer and a picnic lunch on Shocking in the Melbourne Cup. The thought must then enter the head of the Government of the day – why do it for we are on a hiding to nothing.]

    Tough. They put up their hand for the job. “Take what you want, and pay for it. ” is an old Spanish proverb which applies here.

    [ Could it be that your argument is that O’Brien would do a better job the Jones?]

    Not at all. Totally different shows. Jones’ bonhomie is perfect for his show, and when Kerry has someone in his sights, it’s on for young and old. Wouldn’t it be great to have that ability?

    [ I can understand this but it makes it more difficult to argue the Governments position to those trying to understand what is happening when ones focus is on damage limitation rather that selling an idea or concept.]

    Not at all. The whole focus of Rudd has been damage control from day one, and he has been incredibly good at it.

    He works much harder than most people would be prepared to work, and tries to make sure that nothing ever goes wrong.

    It’s like those sports people who say “The more I practice, the luckier I get”. That’s Rudd.

    We haven’t seen his like before on the local or world stage in my lifetime.

  22. Well, another Copenhagen related story, another reason for skepticism.

    ‘Swan at odds with EU on climate funding’

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/09/2737011.htm?section=justin

    [Alistair Darling said that the money should be provided immediately and eventually be scaled up – Britain committed to throw in $1.5 billion a year.

    The rest of the European Union agreed to make similar contributions and hoped to convince other major economies to put substantial funding on the table in Scotland.

    But Mr Swan for one did not think the G20 meeting was the right venue for a discussion about climate change mitigation financing.

    “I would regard it as premature for us to be putting forward a figure in total in the absence of some knowledge about the likely nature of the agreement and the institutional mechanisms that go with it,” he said.]

    Hmmm… sounds a little too much like ‘wait and see’ for my liking.

    [In another setback to the cause, the Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who went to Scotland to urge the G20 to put numbers behind the rhetoric, in the end declared the climate change meeting in Copenhagen could now not lead to a legally binding agreement.]

    Well there’s a surprise.

  23. [I’m still going for the Tamil Nadu Solution which Rudd could sort out when he goes to India this week.]

    Just imagine how quickly the passengers would agree to speedy processing in Indonesia which is/was on offer if a journey to India was the next best option.

  25. “It was hardly predictable that, having agreed leader to leader to take them, Indonesia would then make such a fuss about it.”

    Actually the Indonesians haven’t really made a big fuss about it.

    They said sure, we’ll take the boatpeople, but it’s your boat you have to get them off the boat and take them to the mainland.

    Now normally this wouldn’t be a problem, but when you have such a limp-wristed, soft touch, bleeding heart government that makes tinkerbell look tough, it’s become a real problem.

    See now if Howard was in charge, and he wasn’t a complete soft touch like our current government, these idiots would have been marched off OUR BOAT weeks ago, whether they liked it or not.

    So blaming the Indonesians for not doing Rudd’s hard work for him is a cope out. Face up to the fact it’s Rudd’s problem, Rudd’s fault and Rudd’s responsibility to get them off OUR BOAT, not the Indonesians.

  26. “It is a natural thing for people being rescued to move to the side of the boat that the rescue craft is on and in rough conditions with the boat already being unstable because of water taken on board, then it is as good as a done thing that the boat will founder, which it did unfortunately.”

    Is it also normal for boats to spontaneously combust into flames and have holes drilled in the bows?

  27. [Why is it that FWs such as yourself feel the need to abbreviate everything?]

    Do you have any idea how hard it is to extract a straight answer around here? Belinda Neal is toast.

  29. Tom

    I can’t see how they could complain about going to Tamil Nadu. If they did, they are just destination shoppers.

    Rewi

    Bolt was applauding Swan for saying Australia was holding out from making a commitment. It doesn’t bode well does it.

  30. bob

    my care factor about the ultimate fate of Belinda Neal is about zero.

    So don’t count me as one of the cllrs.

    And as for straight answers – yes, I know, you never do answer questions.

  31. [I’m a plastic surgeon, not orthopaedic. ]

    Diog, no wonder all of your posts are so artificial 😉

    Vera Venus Morning Star L’Amigo, you have to ask your campaign manager to top this from Ziggy:

    [Bradfield, according to Patten, has “only ever been held by the Liberal party, and only ever been held by a man in a suit”. Candidate Zahra Stardust still maintains that a woman in a burlesque costume on a trapeze could get through to some people. A clearly articulate and intelligent woman, she is a human rights advocate, lawyer, burlesque performer, gender studies expert, trapeze artist and finalist for Miss Pole 2008.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/bringing-poll-dancing-to-the-polls-20091109-i3yh.html

    She got 3 votes so far at Bradfield.

  32. [my care factor about the ultimate fate of Belinda Neal is about zero.]

    You care rating for a Labor marginal seat is zero? I’m sure glad you’re not in charge of the federal election campaign next year…

  33. [they are just destination shoppers.]

    Yep. Funny thing is they could have travelled there (Tamil Nadu) first class for a fraction of what it’s cost to get to Indonesia.

  34. [Do you have any idea how hard it is to extract a straight answer around here? Belinda Neal is toast.]

    Quite possibly, but what does that have to do with abbreviations?

  35. [You care rating for a Labor marginal seat is zero? I’m sure glad you’re not in charge of the federal election campaign next year…]

    nice bait and switch there bob.

    NOT

  36. On AS issue, I dont *think* this has been commented on, but the Newspoll report shows that between April and November support for Labor as best to handle the issue declined from 27 to 21…but so did support for Liberals as best to handle the issue from 26 to 22.

    So maybe general feeling is something like a pox on both houses and that this is a difficult issue to address (and even if people dont support Labor on this particular issue, it aint a big vote gainer for Liberals…perhaps)

  38. Bob, You already admitted you spend all day getting paid for sitting on your arse doing bugger all. The least you should do for your poor employer is to save on their band width by logging off and staying off during work hours.

  40. I repeat:

    [You care rating for a Labor marginal seat is zero? I’m sure glad you’re not in charge of the federal election campaign next year…]

  42. Diogenes,

    Various Pollbludger regulars have discussed the need for technology transfer and mitigation assistance as a vital aspect of ensuring that developing nations don’t simply replicate the high-emissions based industrialization that characterizes economies such as Australia’s. It is a shame that Australia cannot show more leadership on this issue.

    I posted a comment from an Indian environmentalist last week, which which it was suggested that the Copenhagen agreement will result in agreed domestic targets. That is, each country will commit to the target it thinks appropriate.

    I asked, what happens in Australia if that’s the case. We have a target range in the current legislation of between 5-25%, on the proviso that we’ll agree to a higher target if there is an international agreement to that effect.

    So, if there’s only an agreement to domestic targets, does that mean that 5% is all we’re going to get? Or will the government look to a stronger target?

    That Andrew Bolt supports the government’s position should be extremely worrying. Here’s a guy the Prime Minister was having a crack at just days ago, complimenting the Treasurer’s position.

  43. Frank

    It sounds like something I’d say but it wasn’t me.

    There is another Diogenes at Bolt’s site who disagrees with everything I say and freaks out that his happy-clapper playmates think it’s him who is bucketing the Libs when it’s me. Perhaps it’s him.

  44. The people on the Oceanic Viking have been in detention centres at our expense under Ruddock and now Rudd’s Asian “solution” for some years being brutalised and traumatised because they are illegals in the Asian region.

    For christs sake, most of them are refugees and being harsh to them is monstrous.

    Our pollsters though seem determined to incite hatred and violence against innocent human beings so they can watch the gladiators brawl.

    They and this nation are really stupid and disgusting people who should be ashamed of themselves.

    As for Alex, he served his time as a teenager in Canada, was forcibly deported away from his entire family for all these years, changed his ways and made a decent life before the latest shocking violence.

    Howard on the other hand sent the navy and police to brutalise innocent refugees on the high seas, wasted $3 billion in the process and then sent soldiers to the countries of two of the groups of people to bomb them to bits and he walks around scott free.

  47. [And yet the CLLRs here wanted Belinda Neal to re contest Robertson… honestly… not happening if http://www.smh.com.au/national/poll-predicts-labor-loss-if-neal-stands-20091108-i3k4.html has any kernel of truth.]

    Gee, my memory gives me trouble sometimes! Bob, if you’re going to make all encompassing statements such as this,it would be appreciated if you could supply it with at least something to back it up!

    Name names, damn it! I’m a bit like Downer and Howard. I can’t recall!!!

  48. Rewi

    [So, if there’s only an agreement to domestic targets, does that mean that 5% is all we’re going to get? Or will the government look to a stronger target?]

    I think I know the answer to that. I’m not confident that Australia won’t play the spoiler at Copenhagen, let alone wriggle out of doing anything other than 5%.

  49. “The federal electorate of Robertson was always going to be hard for Labor to hold. They needed everything to go perfectly to hold that.”

    What you meant to say is Belinda Neal’s seat was always going to be hard for Labor to hold.

    The problem with the seat is that Belinda Neal is sitting in it.

    Saw this bitter old cow on Q & A the other night, she couldn’t break a smile if her life depended on it. She’s everything the media claims and more, a real piece of work this one.

  50. Alex’s fishy tale:

    [“There he met his wife, with whom he moved in 2006 to Chennai in India, fearful of ongoing anti-Tamil violence in Sri Lanka. “Eventually I did start a small business (in Chennai), and I think this is where the Sri Lankan government got the idea that I’m a people-smuggler,” he said.

    I did not have an office, but I started a small business where for tours, or anybody that needed a vehicle to rent, I just rented out mine. And whilst doing this I started working in a call centre, because of my good command of English and my knowledge of American lifestyle and American culture. In the call centre in Chennai they loved me, and they were willing to pay me a lot of money. So as time went by I became very well off in India and I had a good life there.

    On the understanding that his removal order from Canada lasted only five years, Kuhendrarajah began making plans last year to obtain Sri Lankan passports for his children – his wife gave birth to their third daughter just weeks ago, while he was hiding in Malaysia waiting to board the Lestari Jaya 5, the ill-fated boat that brought him to Australia’s attention – and try again to make a North American home.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/finally-the-real-alex-steps-forward/story-e6frg6n6-1225795570337

    If he really was “well-off” and had “good life” in Chennai, you dont throw it all away for an uncertain and dangerous undertaking. A good life in Chennai is a very good life, especially with the piping hot roti chennai dipped in cucumber, garlic and yogurt sauce.

    Why would you trade that for the pathetic meat pie and tomato sauce. Alex is giving the genuine AS a very bad name.

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