Nielsen: 56-44

The keenly awaited monthly Nielsen poll of 1400 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead down just slightly to 56-44 from 57-43 a month ago. Likewise, Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 45 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 68 per cent and his disapproval is up five to 28 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up two points to 37 per cent, and his disapproval is steady on 53 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 69-23 to 68-22. Michelle Grattan provides further details on responses to asylum seeker policies:

As the effort to persuade the 78 Sri Lankans on the Oceanic Viking to disembark in Indonesia continues, 47 per cent of Australians disapprove of how the Prime Minister is handling the asylum-seeker issue; 45 per cent approve … Nearly two-thirds of Coalition voters disapproved, compared with one-third of Labor voters and just over half the Greens supporters … just 13 per cent thought the Government’s asylum-seeker policy was too harsh; 37 per cent said it was about right. Only 6 per cent of Coalition voters and 14 per cent of ALP voters said the policies were too hard. Labor voters were more than twice as likely to rate the policies too soft as too harsh. Nearly four in 10 Greens voters said they were too harsh.

UPDATE: The Australian offers results from that follow-up Newspoll we’ve been hearing about, but at this stage at least there are no figures on voting intention. It instead focuses on attitudes to asylum seeker policy, with results that largely echo those of last week’s Essential Research survey: 53 per cent disapprove of the government’s handling of the issue against 31 per cent approve, but only 22 per cent believe the Coalition would do a better job against 21 per cent for Labor. Forty-six per cent believe the government’s response has been too soft against 16 per cent too hard.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research: 59-41, i.e. unchanged on the last few weeks. However, Rudd’s approval ratings have taken a hit. Further questions on interest rates and yet another one on whether the government’s asylum seeker policies are tough, weak or just right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44”

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  1. [Contrast this, with whenever Geraldine Doogue takes over from time to time. It’s a whole different show. Michelle Grattan performs much better, and the conversation between these two stalwarts is always worth listening to.]

    Aristotle – that is spot on. I think it’s because Geraldine, Stephen Crittenden, Norman Swann and the like haven’t been part of the Canberra Press Gallery. It makes for much better listening and is far more informative. It’s much more enjoyable.

    BTW – I think Frank is trying a bit harder to be less aggressive with Labor pollies. My biggest beef with her was that she never showed the same disrespect to John Howard, Downer & Co. that she has to the Labor lot over the past 2 years. I have a feeling it may have been pointed out to her on more than occasion. Hence the change.

  2. I should point out Dio, your insistence that this has become a problem for the government is all based on the Newspoll outlier. I don’t really think it’s been a problem at all.

  3. [This would all have blown over much more quickly if they went to Xmas Island.]

    It was hardly predictable that, having agreed leader to leader to take them, Indonesia would then make such a fuss about it. And once an Indonesian port had been agreed upon, Christmas Island wasn’t an option. The asylum seekers’ boat was in trouble, they made a distress call and an Australian boat picked them up in Indonesia’s S & R zone. Should they be taken to Christmas Island just because they are refusing to get off the boat that rescued them?

  5. Didn’t the AS now on the OV supposedly drill holes in their boat to sink it? What sort of message would it send to other AS if we just picked them up and brought them to CI after those tactics?

  6. Not that I listen to RN ‘Breakfast’ often, but I recall an item of Fran Kelly in conversation with Michelle Grattan a month or two back. Kelly would criticise the government for whatever the Liberal ‘talking point’ of the day was. When it came to discussing the Liberals, a couple of times she prefaced her remarks with: “In fairness to Malcolm Turnbull… ” and “to be fair to the Coalition …”. She showed no such “fairness” to the government. Unfortunately I don’t remember the date of this, so cannot provide a link, if indeed a transcript of the session even exists online.

  7. [Didn’t the AS now on the OV supposedly drill holes in their boat to sink it? What sort of message would it send to other AS if we just picked them up and brought them to CI after those tactics?]

    In international waters, and in Indonesia’s S&R zone. Yep, that would have gone away quietly for sure…

  8. [Alison Carrabine told us that it won’t be certain that Newspoll was a rogue until the next Newspoll comes out. Makes perfect sense to me.]

    Makes no sense to me unless the who-would-you-vote-for-if-there-was-an-election-tomorrow question wasn’t asked and THAT I can’t believe. Newspoll would have been asked to measure the TPP to try and support the OO attack. The result did not suit them at all so we don’t get to see the numbers.

    The head of Newpoll was interviewed on Friday (ABC radio) and he seemed like a reasonable chap and very approachable. The ABC should approach him again and ask if the TPP questions was asked this weekend. I guess he’d say that he can’t confirm or deny what was in the poll other than what was published but I bet it was asked and that the numbers at worst were 56 – 44.

  9. Dario

    The polls are showing that this is an issue. Rudd’s approval ratings and the voters are saying that they are unhappy with the way it has been handled (the Libs are hopeless and have no position so they’re not making any friends either).

    vera

    That was an OO accusation made with no evidence. The AS boat was not in sight of any ship when the distress call went out, Australian or otherwise, so I greatly doubt that they tried to sink their boat when it could mean drowning. For all they knew, an Indonesian ship could have answered the call.

  10. Sorry Tom I should have put sarcasm tags on that comment. Of course it makes no sense to me either. It’s all part of the ABC narrative to denigrate the government in general and Rudd in particular at every opportunity.

  13. [ It’s all part of the ABC narrative to denigrate the government in general and Rudd in particular at every opportunity.]

    It seems to me that the media in general took a dislike to St Kevin very early and we have seen *pushback* from the reptiles increasing steadily but consistently.

    Its there. Fact.

    Turnbulls hiding from alan jones got virtually no exposure last week. The hitler video – ho hum. Gretch – water under the bridge. Coalition infighting and disunity – being in opposition is Ssoo tough.

  14. [The polls are showing that this is an issue. Rudd’s approval ratings and the voters are saying that they are unhappy with the way it has been handled (the Libs are hopeless and have no position so they’re not making any friends either).]

    The polls say lots of things. Until 2PP starts moving (and I exclude the rogue here) I don’t see it as a problem for the government. You clearly are soaking up the media spin and want to see it as a problem because that suits your view of the issue.

  15. [The AS boat was not in sight of any ship when the distress call went out, Australian or otherwise, so I greatly doubt that they tried to sink their boat when it could mean drowning. For all they knew, an Indonesian ship could have answered the call.]

    So no AS boat has ever been sabotaged before unless it was in sight of another ship? Really Dio? As for the risk of drowning bit, perhaps you should ask that question of the lot that sank near the Cocos. They knew there was a risk of drowning but still made a massive voyage despite that risk.

  16. [The head of Newpoll was interviewed on Friday (ABC radio) and he seemed like a reasonable chap and very approachable. The ABC should approach him again and ask if the TPP questions was asked this weekend. I guess he’d say that he can’t confirm or deny what was in the poll other than what was published but I bet it was asked and that the numbers at worst were 56 – 44.]

    Perhaps Antony can give him another call?

  18. I saw the headline on the OO at shops today. Big spread across front page that Rudd approval down.

    What I am wondering is – has the OO asked for today’s figures to be just the result of the GOOD/BAD AS question. Does any of the stuff coming out of the paper today give any indication that a “who will you vote for” question was asked and that it will be front page tomorrow with a bad result for the Govt.

  19. If they drilled holes in the boat but plugged them, assuming the plugs were reasonably effective, means that the distress call was a con, so even less reason to take them where they want to go. Really, if they are going to do that then even what the government has offered is too much.

  20. I think people do see the AS as a problem but one that they believe neither party has a handle on. It would be a political problem for the government if people believed the opposition had the answers. They clearly understand the opposition has no answer and why is that? Because the opposition keep on telling them they don’t in one way or another.
    So in one way the AS is a problem for the government, a problem of trying to find an answer but politically it isn’t a problem.

  21. [I saw the headline on the OO at shops today. Big spread across front page that Rudd approval down.

    What I am wondering is – has the OO asked for today’s figures to be just the result of the GOOD/BAD AS question. Does any of the stuff coming out of the paper today give any indication that a “who will you vote for” question was asked and that it will be front page tomorrow with a bad result for the Govt.]

    Meh. The OO’s credibility is non-existant these days, and Newspoll is fast joining them.

  22. All of a sudden, four boats of asylum seekers (3 here, 1 in Canada) are in the news. All four come from Sri Lanka (whereas most previous boats have been Iraqi/Afghanistani). One boat turns out to contain ‘Alex’, who has a dodgy record to say the least and is connected to the Canadian boat as well.

    The SRs on the boats are all using similar tactics. (If they have mobile phone access and Alex has mobile phone access, then that’s not surprising).

    Let’s join some dots here. I don’t think it’s absurd to suggest that Alex and co have recently set themselves up in business amongst the SR refugee community. This is not so much a ‘surge’ as a coordinated effort.

    Remove ‘Alex’ from the picture and let’s see if this SR surge continues.

  23. [What I am wondering is – has the OO asked for today’s figures to be just the result of the GOOD/BAD AS question. Does any of the stuff coming out of the paper today give any indication that a “who will you vote for” question was asked and that it will be front page tomorrow with a bad result for the Govt.]
    BH if this poll was backing up the last Newspoll, which would they want to promote first – that Rudd’s approval had slipped or that their last poll was on the money and this one backs it up? I’m going for the latter. I suspect this Newspoll doesn’t back up the last one.

  24. vera

    [Immigration Minister Chris Evans and Home Affairs Minister Brendan O’Connor refused to comment on whether the boat was sabotaged.]

    The boat had holes which they plugged up. That’s what you do with holes. Where is the proof they sabotaged it? Evans and O’Connor haven’t commented but you are happy to make any assumption that helps your cause.

    Dario

    Are you saying the people on the boat who drowned off Cocos Islands deliberately sank their boat?

  27. [The boat had holes which they plugged up. That’s what you do with holes. Where is the proof they sabotaged it? Evans and O’Connor haven’t commented but you are happy to make any assumption that helps your cause.]

    Assumption lol. Yeah, the holes were to get rid of rats.

    [Are you saying the people on the boat who drowned off Cocos Islands deliberately sank their boat?]

    Can you not read or are you being deliberately obtuse?

  30. Diogs,

    You hold the record for jumping to conclusions on tenuous information. A bit rich you now criticise others for such behaviour.

  31. OK Dario and GB – you’ve convinced me they’ve put forward the one they liked best.

    [Remove ‘Alex’ from the picture and let’s see if this SR surge continues.]

    Zoonster – I can’t see why the Indonesians haven’t already got those people of that boat. There are women and children on it and surely it must be mighty uncomfortable. It’s getting humid where I live so it must be over there as well. I think Alex needs to be removed pronto.

  33. Dario

    From Nielsen

    [Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 68 per cent and his disapproval is up five to 28 per cent.]

    So now you’re ignoring Newspoll and Nielsen because they don’t suit your “argument”.

    And why are the AS boats always referred to as “leaky boats”? Leaks happen because of holes.

  35. Diog
    You were the one made the sarcy remark saying it was only the OO that had said they drilled holes.
    I was just proving you wRONg by showing that The Age also reported it.
    It’s your problem if you can’t take being proved wrong in you smart arse accusations of me and Dario.

    [All boat have holes]
    LOL yeah and all the holes in all the boats are all neatly drilled with a removable plug.

  36. GG

    [Diogs,

    You hold the record for jumping to conclusions on tenuous information. A bit rich you now criticise others for such behaviour.]

    One little Grech episode! And that bloody map of the AS boat trip! Am I never to be forgiven for two little mistakes? 🙁

    In my defence, I was the first to definitely say the email was fake and that the Cocos Island boat would be from SL. If you poke your head above the parapet, it’s going to be blown off a few times.

  37. If News Ltd wanted to be perceived as more ‘balanced’ they would appoint some left-wing bloggers to balance out the Milnes, Albrechtsens, Akermans, Bolts, Blairs, Shanahans who are all on there every day churning out their right-wing ‘talking points’.

    I don’t mean a part-timer or occasional blogger such as Philip Adams, whose blogs appear once a week or less. They need daily left bloggers, along the lines of Tim Dunlop who had a daily blog in the OO till he called it quits last year.

  38. [Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 68 per cent and his disapproval is up five to 28 per cent.]
    I must say Dio, I can’t believe you’re holding up those figures as proof of Rudd losing face on this issue. They are figures any leader would kill for, so to speak. 68/28? Hell.

  40. [I must say Dio, I can’t believe you’re holding up those figures as proof of Rudd losing face on this issue. They are figures any leader would kill for, so to speak. 68/28? Hell.]

    A drowning man will cling to anything

  41. Diogs,

    You write like you’ve had your head blown off a few times.

    One of the perks you have by working in orthopaedics?

  42. triton,
    [It was hardly predictable that, having agreed leader to leader to take them, Indonesia would then make such a fuss about it. ]

    When did Indonesia kick up a fuss? Indonesia has always agreed to take those rescued, however they would not force them off the OV nor accept them being forced off the OV.
    Indonesia have done the right thing all along.

  43. Just check the Sky midday news and i must say Gilbert did a pretty fair report on the polls and asylum seekers.

    It was the main story and at the end they said Rudd is still doing his comunity cabinets.
    There’s one tonight at Bathurst
    Live at 6pm on Apac

  44. [When did Indonesia kick up a fuss?]

    Some lower level people certainly have, but far too much weight is being attributed to their comments I think

  45. GB

    They are still a drop though, albeit from a very high level. And the approval of policy ratings on AS aren’t much chop either.

    GG

    I’m a plastic surgeon, not orthopaedic. Fortunately we are the ones who deal with gunshots to the head, so I can be fixed up on those rare occurrences when I am wRONg. 😀

  47. Don @ # 135

    Thank you for you reply.

    “That is an indictment of Hockey, and I agree with your assessment. But that is not a criticism of Tony Jones’ handling of Joe.”

    I am afraid that I cannot completely agree with you on this, in respect of Jones. I accept that Jones’ first responsibility is to run an “entertaining” show but he also has a responsibility to try and insure that all get a change to put there point of view.

    It is a matter of fact that Governments will have the task of explaining to many that doesn’t really want to know the thought process behind a particular idea. To help themselves in this regard we end up with Governments using meaningless phrases to express a policy that could take a ream of paper to explain. Concepts like “working families” and in this case “hard on people smuggles and humane on asylum seekers’ and from the other side” Workchoices” are examples.

    The amount of law and policy work involved in such a phrase is mind boggling but really most of us, and I include most of us that contribute to this blog do not comprehend more than maybe 20 or 30 percent of what is involved.

    So unless we allow the Government spokesperson an opportunity to develop an argument what we end up with is a show that does nothing and takes us nowhere. Unless a way can be found to allow the Government of the day (which always has the task) of arguing the policy work on any and every issue that arises. If not than shows like Q&A will just become a head kicking opportunity for the Opposition.

    As an example of such conflict in respect of another issue just look at the gulf between the Government and the Opposition arguments in respect of the CPRS. The Government has the task of arguing that climate change is real, it is cause by human activity, that the best way to fix it is a cap and trade scheme. Then they have to explain what a cap and trade scheme is and how it will work etc etc.

    At the same time the Liberals just argue no, wrong, bulldust, new tax, won’t fix it, green houses gasses are natural and we need CO2 to live etc etc.

    If we put this in racing terms it is like putting a 120K jockey along with a keg of beer and a picnic lunch on Shocking in the Melbourne Cup. The thought must then enter the head of the Government of the day – why do it for we are on a hiding to nothing.

    You are right about Red Kerry. He does not let anyone get away with anything. I remember that interview with Downer you referred to as well as other ones with Howard. Could it be that your argument is that O’Brien would do a better job the Jones?

    I was not as impressed by McKew’s work on Q@A as you seemed to be. Don’t get me wrong she was not a flop. However, I felt that she was more interested in not making a mistake then in putting the Governments point of view. I can understand this but it makes it more difficult to argue the Governments position to those trying to understand what is happening when ones focus is on damage limitation rather that selling an idea or concept.

  48. [When did Indonesia kick up a fuss?]

    They first sent the OV to one port and then another, whose governor complained about its being used as Australia’s dumping ground for asylum seekers. Hardly a welcoming response.

  49. [They are still a drop though, albeit from a very high level. And the approval of policy ratings on AS aren’t much chop either.]
    Dio, you seem to want to argue the AS issue is a political problem for Rudd. I agree it is a problem for him in that it’s difficult finding a solution but, for reasons I gave earlier, I believe it is not a political problem for him and that goes for his personal satisfaction ratings as well. All the polls are telling me is that people recognise it is a problem for him, that he doesn’t seem to have the answers as yet but that neither do the opposition. They wouldn’t do any better.

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