Nielsen: 56-44

The keenly awaited monthly Nielsen poll of 1400 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead down just slightly to 56-44 from 57-43 a month ago. Likewise, Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 45 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 68 per cent and his disapproval is up five to 28 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up two points to 37 per cent, and his disapproval is steady on 53 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 69-23 to 68-22. Michelle Grattan provides further details on responses to asylum seeker policies:

As the effort to persuade the 78 Sri Lankans on the Oceanic Viking to disembark in Indonesia continues, 47 per cent of Australians disapprove of how the Prime Minister is handling the asylum-seeker issue; 45 per cent approve … Nearly two-thirds of Coalition voters disapproved, compared with one-third of Labor voters and just over half the Greens supporters … just 13 per cent thought the Government’s asylum-seeker policy was too harsh; 37 per cent said it was about right. Only 6 per cent of Coalition voters and 14 per cent of ALP voters said the policies were too hard. Labor voters were more than twice as likely to rate the policies too soft as too harsh. Nearly four in 10 Greens voters said they were too harsh.

UPDATE: The Australian offers results from that follow-up Newspoll we’ve been hearing about, but at this stage at least there are no figures on voting intention. It instead focuses on attitudes to asylum seeker policy, with results that largely echo those of last week’s Essential Research survey: 53 per cent disapprove of the government’s handling of the issue against 31 per cent approve, but only 22 per cent believe the Coalition would do a better job against 21 per cent for Labor. Forty-six per cent believe the government’s response has been too soft against 16 per cent too hard.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research: 59-41, i.e. unchanged on the last few weeks. However, Rudd’s approval ratings have taken a hit. Further questions on interest rates and yet another one on whether the government’s asylum seeker policies are tough, weak or just right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44”

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  1. When the OV situation has been settled, as it is being done now, in a calm and humane manner, Rudd will become a hero because he acted firmly in a calm and humane manner.

  2. No surprise the MSM this morning are either trying to pretend the Nielsen poll doesn’t exist OR they’re continuing to run with the line that Labor’s asylum seeker policy is hurting the standing of the government – could they be any more transparent?

    Fran Kelly’s program is a daily Rudd bashing fest, ably assisted by Michelle Gratten.

  3. Muskiemp: it would seem the OV standoff will be ended within days, and taken out of the headlines! And, if Stephen Smith negotiates something with the Sri Lankans that stems the flow of boat people to this country – that’s another win for the government.
    Strip the Liberals of the boat people scare campaign & their supportive media cheer squad, and what do they have left? No policies, a divided party room and a leader who is struggling to command authority over his troops!

  4. evan@100:

    [Fran Kelly’s program is a daily Rudd bashing fest, ably assisted by Michelle Gratten.]

    I want our ABC to be dishing it up to the government, whatever stripe it is.

    I see that as part of their function.

    I haven’t looked at that particular program, but whenever I have gone to an ABC internet piece, text or video, which a PBer has said is grossly unfair to the Labor party, I’ve found it fair and balanced.

    For instance, the farewell 2009 Q&A with Joe Hockey I saw as being well handled by Tony Jones, while many here thought it biased towards the opposition. And anyone who thinks that Graham Richardson is a Lib sympathiser has rocks in their head. They had three labor and two rights, for crying out loud, and Kerry Chikarovski contributed little and was way out of her depth. I felt sorry for Joe, having to carry it all on his shoulders, especially against someone as bright and articulate (and cutting when he wants to be) as David Marr.

    Many here should take a deep breath and not cry foul over reporting which is not glowing in praise for Labor.

  6. TP@103:

    [59/41 was not an outlier it was moe. Remember the two before it were 58 58]

    Many thanks TP, I should have checked that before accepting it as an outlier, instead of only being at the top of the range, and within moe.

  8. Ok, hands up who’s surprised the Newspoll figure was totally wrong.

    *sound of crickets*

    Any reason why we shouldn’t start seeing them as a fairly dodgy polling outfit?

  9. [102 don
    I want our ABC to be dishing it up to the government, whatever stripe it is.]
    I actually agree with this don but I felt that they abbrogated this responsibility in the last couple of terms of the Howard government.
    As for bias in the media generally I also agree some overcook the argument at times here but some also give valid examples of bias and there is no doubt in my mind that Rudd is copping the raw prawn from certain media organisations.

  11. don,

    A number of PBers take it as a given that the media is biased against Rudd, the Labor Government and them personally. They would prefer alternating headlines “Libs Bollocksed Again” and “Turnbull and Libs in Leadership Crisis”.

    Some journos do have their prejudices. Glenn Milne appears to be exhibit 1 for the Prosecution. But, if you read this mornings article, there is plenty of information about Labor focus groups telling a very strong pro Government story.

    Like everything you need to discern the truth and not be distracted by headlines. Rudd has copped plenty from News Limited and still remains largely untarnished in the eyes of the voters. Maybe the negativity is an aphrodisiac for his ratings.

  12. With all this talk about a “dog whistle” (apparantly Australians are racist for disliking criminals and queue jumpers of any nationality) can we assume Rudd has been using the Watermelon Whistle? Seems he wishes to appeal to the Watermelons by softening laws causing a huge influx of boatpeople, and then talk about how “humane” he is, while the boats sink and people drown.

  13. Also don have another look at Franks post # 67

    [And as predicted, Their ABC is spinning Neilson as bad for Rudd.]

    Plenty of other examples daily.

    But please yourself…

  14. One lesson that the Rudd Govt should learn from the OV episode. Whenever ASs end up in an Australian Boat/Ship, no matter how. just take them to CI Ramada. That is best for everyone.

  15. [Any reason why we shouldn’t start seeing them as a fairly dodgy polling outfit?]
    Yes, because like all polling organisations they experience outliers.
    However, what should stop is this ridiculous notion that they are the best show in town. They are as good and bad as the others.

  16. Adelaide had a maximum temperature of 36C yesterday and is forecast to stay over 35C for the rest of the week. If it stays above 35C for the next four days it will break the 115 year old record for a November heatwave. We also had record heatwaves in February 2009 and January 2008. Someone can ask X any SA Liberals on Friday if they think there is a pattern, and how they will vote on the ETS?

  18. [They {Insiders} had three labor and two rights, for crying out loud]

    But they had Porky Piers on, didn’t they? Surely he is equal to two ‘average’ right-wingers: both in corpulent girth and ideological extremism. 👿 Let’s face it, he’s simply a concreted-on Liberal in the guise of a “commentator”.

  19. Leftwing Turnbull is stopping the Liberal party from capitalising on this issue, he really is.

    Turnbull is simply on the wrong party and he keeps moderating the party to keep within his left wing ideals. It’s time for the elitist left wing banker from inner city Sydney to be given the arse and someone with a clue to take the helm.

  20. Don @ # 102

    I partly agree with you however there are some points I think you have overlooked.

    Whatever the question Hockey only had basically 2 answers.

    The first one was that the Government was wrong/bad/ ineffective (insert you own negative descriptive).

    The second part was when asked what the Liberals would do about the problem his reply was “we are not the Government, it is Rudd’s problem.

    He was allowed to get away with it time after time. Can you remember any occasion where Hockey put forward any actions that the Liberal would take in Government? I cant and I suspect that you cant either.

    However, partially McKew, had to explain how the Government was addressing a complex problems in a politically acceptable light. She was not allowed to finish such explanations.

    This I believe is partly to blame for the argument I have seen both in the media and here that the Government is not explaining its policy regarding asylum seekers.

    Therefore I would argue that the ABC in allowing Hockey to get away with not answering the questions and by limiting McKew’s ability to explain the Governments policy that the ABC was at beast unbalanced in its treatment of the issue.

  21. I’d have to concur with other comments re Fran Kelly.

    I don’t agree she’s Rudd bashing, or is biased against anyone, I just think she tries too hard to be “objective” and in the process becomes overly aggressive and difficult to listen to.

    Contrast this, with whenever Geraldine Doogue takes over from time to time. It’s a whole different show. Michelle Grattan performs much better, and the conversation between these two stalwarts is always worth listening to.

    I just think it’s a class and talent difference.

  22. Labor in opposition was continually told as the alternative government they had to spell out what they would do on whatever the issue of the day was. These daily tests were put up by the likes of milne etc.

    turnbull is getting away with strongly criticising the government on AS’s, while at the sametime refusing to say what he would do, because he says, all he knows is what he had read in the papers etc.

    So he gets a free ticket both ways. How is that *fair & balanced* ??

  23. This idea that the ABC should be tough on the government of the day is fine, but toughness should not equate to blantant bias and unfairness.

    To give one minor example. As I walk to work I listen to the ABC local radio 9am news in Sydney. Virtually every bulletin has at least one anti government story, often two with usually no response from the government.
    Today it was Julie Bishop whining about Labour’s handling of the asylum seeker issue. If the Neilsen poll had aligned with Newspoll you can imagine what the news item would have been.
    When this sort of thing is repeated day after day after day, it is reasonable to ask what is going on.

  25. [Julie Bishop whining about Labour’s handling of the asylum seeker issue.]
    Then I wasn’t dreaming. I couldn’t stay awake for the poll result last night so I put the radio on sleep when I hit the sack. While dropping off I thought I heard Julie’s voice saying Rudd has no idea on AS and the people know it. I dozed into a fitfull sleep thinking ‘Oh crap! Nielson must be B-A-D!!!
    So glad to wake up this morning and find it just a nightmare 🙂

  26. The Finnigans 2 # 111

    “One lesson that the Rudd Govt should learn from the OV episode. Whenever ASs end up in an Australian Boat/Ship, no matter how. just take them to CI Ramada. That is best for everyone.”

    I have asked the question a couple of time but have never got an answer. What would you do if the Australian ship was off the coast of Mexico and resecured some, say, Cubans from a sinking boat. As required by law they take the Cubans to the nearest port, which is in Mexico. They refuse to disembark saying that they want to go to the USA. The USA says that won’t accept them, as it is the responsibility of Mexico.

    Should the Cubans be brought back to Australia?

    There is no difference between this scenario I made up and that of the OV except the location. Surely the correct thing to do is to follow the law and that means those rescued, in the case of the OV, must disembark in Indonesia.

    Anything less that that could mean that we could find ourselves taking in asylum seekers from every ocean on the planet.

  27. BB at 97 and general comments on ABC…

    Part of the issue with financial media (eg Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox) and just generally, is that they are just a different form of entertainment…requiring drama, a simple story line, heroes, villains etc. Hence the coverage of the GFC as it unfolded (as per BB at 97) was like a Charles Dickens’ cliffhanger, with the media/narrator providing necessary drama when the facts were a bit too boring.

    That alas, is probably life for commercial enterprises when that is contemporary popular demand. The sad thing for the ABC is that it has caught the commercial bug. James Alexander Gordon could start some master-classes in sober reporting

  28. [He should have just taken them to Xmas Island and no-one would have noticed]

    Rubbish. The Libs would have been screaming that Rudd was soft on boat people for taking them when they were Indonesia’s problem, and the media would have jumped on the band wagon. Seriously Dio, that’s just a clanger.

  29. [ Any reason why we shouldn’t start seeing them as a fairly dodgy polling outfit?

    Yes, because like all polling organisations they experience outliers.
    However, what should stop is this ridiculous notion that they are the best show in town. They are as good and bad as the others.    ]

    You’re not allowed to say their “dodgy”. They are a professional group, extremely concerned about apparent discrepancies in the polling numbers, which is why they did another poll over the weekend, but forgot to present the 2PP figures.

    Milne solemnly told us (well, not actually us, he told the Great Unwashed who read the Tele) in yesterday’s column that Newspoll was “the benchmark” poll. Right or wrong, Newspoll was the only one to take notice of. If Newspoll says “Rudd’s gone”, that result – Milne’s readers were instructed – must form the basis of the week’s political discussion. Until next week, when Rudd is not gone, and then we’ll hear about “groundswells”, “private Liberal Party polling”, “feelings in the air” and “honeymoons soon to be over” as Milne’s experience and professionalism replace Newspoll as the prime indicator.

    It doesn’t matter whether Newspoll is correct, according to Milne, it’s all we’ve got and we have to live with that… except when we don’t. Other polls are there, at best, to provide backup for Newspoll, but are never primary sources.

    However, I don’t think the schemozzle of last week’s poll is going to be forgotten for a long time. News journalists made so much of it, for so long and everything they said was wrong, because Newspoll was wrong. This could be the beginning of the decline of Newspoll. They sacrificed it on their “Get Rudd” altar. In effect the coverage was another bootstrapper: take a dodgy figures and flog them to death, read all sorts of strange portents into them, trot out Big Rupert himself to put the knife in. They tried anything to make the last Newspoll a self-fulfilling prophecy, to get reality catching up with their meme of the week. And it failed, which is why Newspoll is tainted from this week on.

  31. [ The sad thing for the ABC is that it has caught the commercial bug. James Alexander Gordon could start some master-classes in sober reporting ]

    A significant portion of abc tv *news* is in fact opinion. Also when the dolly bird *acts* the news (in sydney anyway) rather than delivering it in a sober way the result is just tabloid tv.

    If you are in sydney just look out for the strength of emphasis with synchronised exaggerated facial gestures on the abc evening tv news from the dolly bird. Its pure acting. NIDA must be proud.

    abc online *news* might as well be a direct feed from limited news, it is woeful.

    abc wants to dish out this nonsense and at the sametime is just unable to accept any criticism of itself.

  32. But BB, get it right. Newspoll isn’t wrong – yet. Alison Carrabine told us that it won’t be certain that Newspoll was a rogue until the next Newspoll comes out. Makes perfect sense to me.

  33. The last Newspoll was either a rogue poll, or a bunch of statistics contrived or rigged to favour the Liberals(on the instructions of Murdoch?).
    Was the ABC all that tough on the Howard Government? Only Kerry O’Brien, as I recall.
    The rest of their journos cowtowed to the Rodent and spewed out his propoganda on a daily basis.

  34. dave
    Yes, have to say that I am no longer a regular ABC TV news viewer now, as it is drivel. So right about the body language editorialising

    Besides, it clashes with Star Trek:The Next Generation…now that is some fine acting!! 😀

  35. Yes, the argumaent that the media needs drama and a close contest to produce it falls down if you recall the last half of the Howard years when a close result seemed to be the last thing that they wanted.
    I remember thinking that at least Labor will get equal time once the election starts.

  39. [59/41 was not an outlier it was moe. Remember the two before it were 58 58]

    Which makes 52/48 a huge outlier – around double the MOE if 58 is to be believed. That’s hard to believe. And what a time to get it, just when refugee-kicking was at its peak, ensuring that it will continue.

  40. Ratsars@115:

    [Whatever the question Hockey only had basically 2 answers.

    The first one was that the Government was wrong/bad/ ineffective (insert you own negative descriptive).

    The second part was when asked what the Liberals would do about the problem his reply was ..we are not the Government, it is Rudd’s problem…]

    That is an indictment of Hockey, and I agree with your assessment. But that is not a criticism of Tony Jones’ handling of Joe.

    [He was allowed to get away with it time after time. Can you remember any occasion where Hockey put forward any actions that the Liberal would take in Government? I cant and I suspect that you cant either.]

    It’s Red Kerry who asks the hard questions, not Tony Jones. Watch the non-answers (as in, total silence) of Alexander Downer to Kerry’s questions in that classic interview on youtube, it’s a beauty. Or google Embarrassing Downer Interview.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfGfEb2EuQo&feature=related

    Tony’s task is to present an entertaining show, and by and large he succeeds. His job is not to do the job of either the opposition or the government in tearing the guts out of a poor performer like Hockey. He gave David Marr a rip roaring go, and allowed him to make some telling interjections.

    [However, partially McKew, had to explain how the Government was addressing a complex problems in a politically acceptable light. She was not allowed to finish such explanations.]

    I was watching for that, since PBers had already said that before I looked at the show. I thought she was given a fair go. But you can’t let a politician rabbit on forever, give them an inch and they will take a mile. McKew did a good job, and explained the government position well within the constraints of the format and her position in the government. Tony Jones has a show to run, and can not let people go on for ever until they run out of steam.

  41. [“The Newspoll has always been regarded as the most authoritative of them,” Mr Abbott told ABC Radio. ]

    Until it’s exposed next week that is

  42. Dario

    They were in international waters and picked up on an Australian boat. That’s why Indonesia has said they are not Indonesia’s problem. International doesn’t say they MUST be taken to the nearest safe port. It says they may be taken to the nearest port.

    This would all have blown over much more quickly if they went to Xmas Island. The fact that we’re still talking about it three bloody weeks later and it’s still not over argues pretty strongly for that being the case.

  43. dave 126. Those are my observations exactly. Stopped using our MSM (the ABC incl) for news during and since the Howard years. They(the aussie media) are actually worse than the controlled media in totalitarian countries because there the readers understand that what is dished out is state propaganda and learn to read “between the lines” consistently. That the ABC has become inseparable from the pack is a matter of great sadness for the functioning of democracy here.

  44. My favourite line from today’s Glenn Milne’s article:
    […think of it this way,” the (Labor) polling insider said, “more people in Australia believe in climate change than God.”]

  45. I agree with whoever it was that said surely Newspoll wouldn’t do a poll on a special topic (AS) and not ask voting intentions as well. So if they did they have decided not to publish and the only reason for that is that they have made a lie of the ones they put out last week.
    Why did they have voting intention with their special survey poll last week if this is not the case?
    [UPDATE: The Australian has also published a “special Newspoll survey” conducted over the weekend to ascertain views on the Liberal leadership, which also featured the usual questions on voting intention. These found Labor maintaining the 58-42 lead recorded the previous week,]
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/10/12/nielsen-57-43-3/

  46. [he fact that we’re still talking about it three bloody weeks later …]

    … is just what the Liberals and their mates in the MSM want us to do. Look at the news sites today, trying to wring some more headlines out of this crap. By giving the stupid “issue” the continuous oxygen of discussion and debate, we’re keeping the thing alive, and helping to do the Liberals’ job for them. We are slaves to Liberal ‘talking points’. 🙁

  49. [They were in Indonesia’s S&R zone]

    Which is in international waters and has no standing in international law for migration purposes.

    Cuppa

    It would be dead if they just went to Xmas Island after a very brief whine from the Opposition.

  50. [Which is in international waters and has no standing in international law for migration purposes.]

    The law is irrelevant when we are talking about what the Liberals and media would say/beat up. You were inferring that it would have gone away quietly, and I am explaining why that is rubbish.

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