Newspoll: 59-41

The third Newspoll in consecutive weeks is another disaster for the Coalition, showing Labor’s lead widening still further despite the government’s recent discomfort over boat arrivals. Labor is now ahead 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 58-42 at both last week’s unusual poll and last fortnight’s usual one. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down two points to 65 per cent while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. UPDATE: Graphic here: interestingly, 4 per cent has marched from satisfied with Kevin Rudd to dissatisfied, but Malcolm Turnbull’s disapproval rating is up six points as well. Labor leads 48 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote.

Elsewhere:

• Labor’s lead is steady at 58-42 according to the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which seems to be more closely resembling Newspoll than it used to. There are also various questions on the parties’ approaches to the global financial crisis and the rise in interest rates.

• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Matthew Groom, son of former Premier Ray Groom, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the state lower house division of Denison. Neales suggests the “corporate lawyer with Tasmanian state-owned wind power company Roaring 40s” is likely to win a spot on the ticket when the party finalises preselection on Monday, which it earlier deferred because party leaders were “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent” (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham clarifies the situation in comments: Elise Archer, Michael Hodgman and Matt Stevenson were preselected in March, and the remainder of the ticket is to be finalised on Monday). Others reportedly seeking preselection are veteran incumbent Michael Hodgman, who is 70 years old and battling ill health which recently forced him to relinquish the Shadow Attorney-General position; Jenny Branch, a Glenorchy alderman who polled strongly as an independent against Treasurer Michael Aird in his upper house seat of Derwent in April; and Elise Archer, a Hobart alderman. Another Hobart alderman, regular independent candidate Marti Zucco, has been mentioned as a starter, but appears to face powerful opposition in the Liberal organisation. The result in Denison at the 2006 election was Labor three, Liberal one and Greens one; Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics rates the Liberals a solid chance of taking a second seat, possibly at the expense of accident-prone Labor incumbent Graeme Sturges.

• The Queensland Greens have preselected their unsuccessful Senate candidate from 2007, Larissa Waters, to head their ticket at the next election. Waters prevailed in a three-way contest over Jenny Stirling and Libby Connors, party activists and frequent candidates respectively based in Townsville and Toowoomba.

• Republished courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble, Malcolm Mackerras in the Canberra Times lambasts Peter Dutton and his supporters over his reluctance to stand and fight in Dickson, and confidently predicts he will now not only contest the seat but win it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  4. [Bob has said many times he wants a Labor government over a Liberal one and wouldn’t vote Liberal in a fit.]

    That’s true of all Greens, one would hope – although the Greens did do their best to help the Nats win the 1995 Qld election. But the fact that Bob is anti-Liberal doesn’t alter the fact that he’s anti-Labor as well. And since there are hardly any Liberals here, and since the Libs are out of office and too pathetic to be worth bothering with at present, Bob directs 90% of his bile at Labor. Being anti-Liberal doesn’t stop him picking up on any piece of anti-Labor slime he can get from the Liberals or the Murdoch press, no matter how spurious, such as the Rann business recently. He doesn’t care what the allegation is or where it comes from, so long as it’s anti-Labor, Bob likes it. I think that’s a fair summary 🙂

  6. [The Nats will be extinct in 10-20 years, as their support base dies out, and the regional areas become even more urbanised.]

    This is true but… I can’t help thinking back to the time when they changed their name from the Country Party to the National Party. Back then at least some people in the CP understood their predicament and need to broaden. But somehow it hasn’t happened since then. They have strayed back to their narrow rural base. And many rural areas, like the NP, are themselves in decline. Only the mining areas have life now.

  7. Psephos

    I saw that Rudd was proposing to extend sitting hours as long as necessary to ensure the best possible chance of getting the ETS passed before Hopenhagen. Looks like some very long nights for you as I think it’s going to be like herding cats to get the Libs to vote for the ETS.

  10. There are plenty of regional areas which are growing – all the areas along the east coast, anywhere within 2 hours drive of the capital cities, places with tourism businesses, or places which are major regional hubs. But this growth is not helping the Nats, because it is changing the political nature of all these areas, making them less rural and more urban in their culture. So they shift from National to Liberal or Labor. The remaining Nats heartland – western NSW and Qld, the Murray Valley and Gippsland, the WA wheatbelt, are all stagnant or declining. So the Nats are losing their coastal seats, while eash redistribution erodes their heartland seats. They disguised this trend for a while with Bjelke-Petersen’s populism, which suceeded mainly because both Labor and Liberal were so hopeless in Qld in 70s and 80s, but since the fall of the Qld Nats they have been in steady retreat.

  11. [I mean look at the UK where the Conservatives are expected to win the next election, their climate change policy is the same as Labor’s]
    Didn’t Turnbull not long ago visit the UK Opposition Leader, then came came with the new tough stand on his party and insisted on negotiating on the ETS.He realised the rest of the World will do something about AGW and did not want to be left out, however the rest of the Opposition are pulling against him. It is shame there could not have been a little bipartition with the ETS.

  12. [I saw that Rudd was proposing to extend sitting hours as long as necessary to ensure the best possible chance of getting the ETS passed before Hopenhagen.]
    If the Senate extends sitting onto a Friday or even a Saturday, yet the Senate still doesn’t vote on the CPRS bills, would that constitute “failure to pass”?
    [Looks like some very long nights for you as I think it’s going to be like herding cats to get the Libs to vote for the ETS.]
    Just look at the amendments the Coalition wants, there’s is an enormous gap between the coalition and government positions. I doubt the government will agree to anything resembling the coalition position, this is all a test about how far the coalition is willing to go to agree with the government position.
    [places with tourism businesses, or places which are major regional hubs.]
    I thought tourism was in the doldrums because of the high AUD$? It stops people coming from overseas, and makes Australians more likely to go on overseas holidays.

  13. [places with tourism businesses, or places which are major regional hubs.]

    True international tourism is down now but, domestic tourism is still very important ot these places. Overall, Adam is right, lots of regional centres are growing where they are based on mining or domestic tourism, but then they are no longer “rural” in nature. Other areas based on traditional rural industries are struggling. The point is, the sort of places where the traditional NP appeals are shrinking, and the NP’s appeal is not broadening.

  14. Re the boat full of Shri Lankans trying to enter Canada. I see that they have been taken on shore.
    The Canadians found out that they could play cricket and decided to take them in and try to make the Canadian Citizens, as soon as possible, so they could play for Canada in the next Cricket World Cup 🙂

  15. [If the Senate extends sitting onto a Friday or even a Saturday, yet the Senate still doesn’t vote on the CPRS bills, would that constitute “failure to pass”?]

    There is no objective standard for “failure to pass.” It’s whatever the PM can persuade the GG it is. If the Senate voted not to extend its sitting and knocked off for Xmas without voting on the bill, I think the PM could make a good case for “failure to pass.”

  16. Pyne says that border protection is becoming the “number one issue” for Australians. Ridiculous, but he obviously wants it to be and doesn’t care how grubby it is to use this divisive issue again to try to gain a political advantage.

  17. [If the Senate voted not to extend its sitting and knocked off for Xmas without voting on the bill, I think the PM could make a good case for “failure to pass.”]
    Do you think Fielding, Xenophon and the Greens will support a Senate motion to have the bills voted on?

    It seems to me that the Liberals and Nationals will go out of their way to delay the vote again until next year, another committee perhaps? Or say that the Coalition amendments need to be costed?

    I read the Coalition amendments and just can’t fathom how the government could vote for anything that resembles the coalition position. The full list of desired amendments are listed here:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2009/10/18/the-coalition-finally-show-their-hand-on-the-ets/

    They are just ridiculous.

  18. [Pyne says that border protection is becoming the “number one issue” for Australians. ]
    I hate it when politicians try to tell the populace what it is thinking.

  19. It’s a bit moot if it constitutes a “failure to pass” coz Rudd is hardly going to pull the trigger striaght away just before Christmas. That would take a huge rush of blood to the head.

  20. [It’s a bit moot if it constitutes a “failure to pass” coz Rudd is hardly going to pull the trigger striaght away just before Christmas.]
    Turnbull must realise how dangerous a position he is in. If he can’t convince the Liberal partyroom to pass the CPRS in November, that means the government gets a D.D. trigger.

    But then in next year there will be ANOTHER round of debating within the Liberal partyroom about whether or not they should pass the CPRS at the THIRD go in order to defuse the D.D. bomb that has been created.

    In other words, if Turnbull can’t convince his party room to support the Government’s position (or something extremely close to it) in November of this year, then this whole issue is going to control the Liberal party room into next year, which may well end Turnbull’s leadership.

  21. [It’s a bit moot if it constitutes a “failure to pass” coz Rudd is hardly going to pull the trigger striaght away just before Christmas.]

    He doesn’t have to, he can stockpile the triggers until next year. There’s also the health insurance rebate bill, remember. A July election would suit him best because then he doesn’t get a short Senate and another election in 2012.

  22. On the other hand, if we have another stinker of a summer with more serious fires, a March election on the theme of “see we told you climate change was real” would be attractive, short Senate or not.

  23. That’s what I was going to say. I’d prefer a summer election because voters’ minds would be focussed on the weather, if not the climate!

  24. [That’s what I was going to say. I’d prefer a summer election because voters’ minds would be focussed on the weather, if not the climate!]
    That could backfire in S.A., because we would probably have brown outs, which just makes voters think about the inability of the state government to build enough electricity generation capacity in S.A.

  25. South Australians, with their long history of progressive attitudes, would probably be astute enough not to confuse State issues with Federal. (Wearing my Optimist’s hat today).

  27. [South Australians, with their long history of progressive attitudes, would probably be astute enough not to confuse State issues with Federal.]
    When people in the ‘burbs can’t get access to electricity, they’ll blame whoever they can.

  28. [If the Senate voted not to extend its sitting and knocked off for Xmas without voting on the bill, I think the PM could make a good case for “failure to pass.”]

    I wonder about this. The Senate isn’t obliged to sit for longer hours, though clearly the government would prefer that it did. Surely there would have to be some element of urgency – of critical import – that would mean that delayed passage is the equivalent of failure.

    Ultimately this would get contested in the High Court, but the more pressing question I guess is whether the Governor General would be convinced that passage of the Bill was so fundamental to the carriage of Australia’s negotiations in Copenhagen that delay constitutes failure.

  29. [Bob doesn’t push a conservative agenda, he pushes an anti-Labor aganda. He’ll use any argument or any source, left, right or centre, so long as it’s anti-Labor.]

    Absolute rubbish.

    [92 – Bob has said many times he wants a Labor government over a Liberal one and wouldn’t vote Liberal in a fit. So I’d refine it a bit more.]

    A lot more. My hero is Don Dunstan, theres a lot of proud historical Labor tradition, but i’m dissolutioned with some of modern Labor, i’d vote Labor in FPTP, and I support a social progressive third party for the balance of power in the Senate.

    Seems around here one has to be black and white in their support of a party.

  32. [A lot more. My hero is Don Dunstan, theres a lot of proud historical Labor tradition, but i’m dissolutioned with some of modern Labor, i’d vote Labor in FPTP, and I support a social progressive third party for the balance of power in the Senate.

    Seems around here one has to be black and white in their support of a party.]

    Maintain the rage,comrade!

  37. ShowsOn
    [Management often dictates an editorial line it wants reporters to take that is in conflict with what our contacts say. Much of a day can be wasted trying to find one person to say what management wants them to say. This is not reporting, it is fabricating news…]

    Yes I think that is why I have so little sympathy for them now that their revenue base is collapsing. When I feel like lambasting the MSM its not really ALL the mainstream media that annoy me, its the Murdoch/Packer Media (MPM).

    Still, the heat is on them not the alternatives. Media Watch was interesting last night, with the Murdochs tub-thumping about the “unfairness” of having government competitors supplying a non-market driven service to taxpayers and not having to pay their own way. His argument was non-sensical – if the ABC are uncompetitive in their content, then they will not be watched and hence are not a threat to his revenue! He only has reason to complain if the government broadcasters ARE a threat when it comes to news. Good to see Mark Scott ignored his demands.

    I can’t help thinking too that the financial problems of print and TV media now are partly self-inflicted. They built up huge cost structures when times were good, based on their ability to exploit monopoly power in advertising markets. Now that monopoly is broken those cost structures are unsustainable for the value of their news content alone. Does anyone really think that Ray Martin and co are worth a couple of million $ a year as journalists?

  39. [Seems around here one has to be black and white in their support of a party.]
    Not at all bob. Free speech here.
    You’re the one who seems to have the idea that if a person IS black and white about their party that that is in some way to be frowned upon and constantly jeered at.

  40. [I support a social progressive third party for the balance of power in the Senate.]
    The Australian Sex Party?
    [Does anyone really think that Ray Martin and co are worth a couple of million $ a year as journalists?]
    Ray Martin isn’t a journalist, he is a celebrity.

  43. [I am considering putting the ASP before Green and Labor, yes.]
    I think the Sex Party is making a mistake aligning themselves with the Bikie, oh my mistake, Free Australia Party.

    It will just seem like they are a coalition of pimps and prostitutes.

  44. [South Australians, with their long history of progressive attitudes, would probably be astute enough not to confuse State issues with Federal.]

    At the 1966 federal election SA produced a massive swing to the Libs because they were unhappy with the Walsh Labor government. Labor lost Adelaide, Grey and Kingston. By 1969 they were unhappy with the Hall Liberal government, so they produced an even bigger swing back to Labor. Labor regained Adelaide, Grey and Kingston, and the new seat of Hawker, and won Sturt as well.

  46. 59-41 -oh happy days! – I can’t wait for my own seat of North Sydney to go red – and it might actually happen! Oh, to be rid of Hockey Puck! Happy days!

    Anyway, came across this,

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26233717-2702,00.html

    there really is nothing the shameless Liberals will do to score a cheap political point. I mean, attacking someone as toothless as the Governor-General, especially someone as affable and non-partisan as Quentin Bryce is a new low for the Liberal Party, if that were at all possible for them to achieve.

  47. I forgot to add – I can’t help but wonder what effect the Liberal grand-standing and dog-whistling on Refugees will have on seats on North Sydney, Bradfield and dare I say – Wentworth and Higgins…

  48. Apparently there will be an MOPI on people smuggling today, so it seems that Turnbull has decided to get into the gutter and push this hard.

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