Westpoll: 53-47 to Liberal in WA

Bit late with this one, but Thursday’s West Australian featured one of its increasingly occasional 400-sample Westpoll surveys of state voting intention. The year-old Liberal-National government’s two-party lead was at a fairly modest 53-47, compared with an unlikely 59-41 at the last such poll in June. Both leaders are up four points on preferred premier: Colin Barnett to 59 per cent, Eric Ripper to 17 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

34 comments on “Westpoll: 53-47 to Liberal in WA”

  1. I’m amazed that on those figures, that Ripper’s still leader. Going up four points, and it getting you to 17 per cent, when your opponent is Colin Barnett is breathtakingly awful.

    If Labor’s going to have a hope in hell of winning the next election, they need to get Ben Wyatt in as leader pretty damn soon, and actually land some punches on Barnett, which Ripper can’t even do when the opportunity’s handed to him.

  2. Last I saw of Ripper was him following Barnett without question over the new stop-and-search police laws… even claiming that they’d thought of it first. Made Kim Beazley in 2001 look like he had a spine. Also, a random story from Saturday’s West has the opposition being nothing but whingers. (Ken Travers, who I’ve never heard of despite him being an MLC since 1996.) Apparently the One Movement festival this weekend (didn’t go to it? you missed out… 😀 ) wasn’t profitable enough, and the govt should have put on something that drew more $$, like a Danny Green boxing match (really – that was his suggestion). One year without Sheila McHale as minister, and suddenly nobody’s ever heard of funding the arts. Labor, for god’s sake pull yer collective fingers out.

  3. Also, the Greens have had a good day in the council elections – two of their number are now the mayors of Fremantle (expected) and Port Hedland (… huh?). Kelly Howlett, who got about 9% in Pilbara last couple of state elections running as a Green, is now the mayor of blue-collar red-dust Port Hedland. Anyone want to tip the Greens to beat the Libs down to fourth place in Pilbara next time?

  4. As others commented on the last SA poll, this result doesn’t mean much with a small sample and high MOE. Still, agian there is no sign of the opposition gaining ground on the Liberrals either.

  5. I don’t put much stock in these polls but if you compare like with like how can you say “there is no sign of the opposition gaining ground on the Liberrals either”? Is the MOE 6%?

  6. Oops! Sorry I missed the previous poll 2PP; I was only looking at the leader’s numbers. You are right GB; if we are to be consistent thne it is a shift to Labor of more than MOE.

  7. Rebecca @ 1

    As Brendan Nelson & Malcolm Turnbull have found out (and Peter Costello already knew) the term after losing government is the worst time to be leader of your party. The new government is fresh and (almost inevitably) reasonably popular, rendering the opposition irrelevant. I doubt changing leaders would achieve anything more for the WA opposition than it did for the federal opposition.

    It was always going to be a tough, hard slog for whoever took the reins. Necking Ripper now would be a sign of immaturity; not to mention impatience given the next election isn’t due until early 2013.

  8. I suspect the next election will be a lot sooner than 2013.

    The battle lines between Barnett and Grylls are slowly but perceptibly becoming apparent, and it won’t be long before open warfare is declared.

    Disunity is death, and the pendulum of electoral intentions is already on its way back to the centre.

    Labor now needs to distance itself from the knee jerk reaction-ism of the Liberals to every issue, and avoid the “we’re tougher than them” mindset. Let the Libs legislate themselves into paralysis, especially in law and order, medical and expenditure issues, where their answer to every problem is to address the immediate political damage and ignore the disintegration of the system.

    The small target, say as little as possible, and prepare for the next election sooner rather than later approach will be Labor’s best chance.

  9. As at the federal level, the timing of elections in WA is constrained by fixed terms for the upper house. Unless the elections are to be held separately, the next lower house election can’t be held earlier than June 2012.

  10. [Last I saw of Ripper was him following Barnett without question over the new stop-and-search police laws… even claiming that they’d thought of it first. Made Kim Beazley in 2001 look like he had a spine.]

    Actually according to one news report I read Ripper said there needed to be some sort of safeguards put by way of parliament reviewing the police requests to use these powers.

  11. Though as I’ve mentioned previously, Labor are scared to outright oppose the new Police Powers because of all to powerful Police Union, who managed to, if you can excuse the pun “beat up” on the Constable Matt Butcher one punch aquittal, especially when former Union President Mike Dean made what one could class as seditious statements regarding what would happen to politicians if they opposed said legislation to introduce Mandatory Sentencing with the following:

    [Change the law and we will back you,” he said. “Close your eyes and minds and ignore us and we will make your lives a nightmare.’]

    Now if that was said by certain people who follow a certain non-christian religion- well you you the outcome.

    It’s a classic case of damned if you do, damned if you don’t – I don’t like it one bit, but that is the political reality in a one newspaper town where the WA Police Union make the CFMEU look like a bunch of boy scouts.

  12. Yes I think Dean was on the radio playing all coy about when he will become a liberal party candidate,he to the morning announcer,jock,whatever that he would not join labour,I wonder why?
    Mean while the Police and the media both radio and print keep piling on the pressure for more laws,how many more laws can you have,why not just shut the justice system down, do away with defense lawyers,and the campaign against them had to be heard to be believed.
    Introduce a mandatory guilty plea, and jail everyone,as to whether your guilty or not who cares,if your a law abiding citizen you don’t have to worry,that’s the line that’s being pushed here,the Police know best would we fit you up no never not us.
    Apart from that I am going to disagree with Frank I think and the other gent ,I think the Labour Party is in need of a parliamentary clean out,all the old stages should be forced out,Ripper,Ravlich,Logan,any one who had anything to do with the terminal mess that was the Labour Govt,the backroom boys should be exposed as well,why do they keep sending duds to repesent us in Parliament.
    And I think that the Liberal Nat or is it National Liberal or whoevers turn it is this week,how Carpenter could do that to us and that traitor in Morley,I don’t know,but I still think that most if not all apart from a few of the brighter new guard should retire resign or get the hell out,and give other people a chance of establishing themselves,or make Mcteirian Leader and they boot Eric and go,he is hope less,he looks like a rabbit in a spotlight on TV,and perception these days is everything

  14. I wonder if our Green supporting colleagues would care to speculate on how this is the case:

    [Mr Barnett and Mr Ripper were level pegging as the preferred premier for Labor voters but the Premier was surprising more popular with Greens voters by 41 to 19 per cent despite the Government’s push to allow uranium mining in stark contrast to Labor’s blanket opposition to the prospect.]

  15. Rewi: probably because the Labor voters are keeping the faith with their own party, but everyone else just goes for the default position with the ‘preferred premier’ poll – the guy who actually is premier.

    Plus, Labor annoyed the Greens about as much as they annoyed everyone else last year… that’s why they’re not the government any more. If this is an old poll, though, you may see Barnett losing to ‘neither of the above’ due to police search laws, marijuana etc. Not to Labor, until they grow a pair and stand up to the police union the same way they did to the CFMEU a few years back when the underground rail was being built. Frank, talk to your people… and tell Ken Travers to pull his bone head in. 😉

  16. [Frank, talk to your people… and tell Ken Travers to pull his bone head in. ;)]

    Don’t worry, I’ll be drafting a motion to that effect at tomorrow night’s Swan Hills AGM 🙂

  17. Birds

    Maybe the Green is waking up to the reality of the world …. In order to tackle global warming and to stop CO2 emitions, one of the solution is nuclear power and it also helps to create jobs

    It is just that Labor is per normal slow to realise anything

  18. 17#

    Dovif, as far as I’m aware the Greens are opposed to nuclear power. And Barnett is hardly more environmentally friendly than Carpenter was (or pretty well anyone).

  19. It’s a shame that people don’t get to see quite how the government has been performing before they indicate these preferences. Perhaps they would see the Premier in a different light.

    From Hansard, 13 October:

    [Mr W.J. JOHNSTON:… I ask him one thing: the next time he decides to make these types of interjections, he should not spend so much time in the bar before he comes here. Quite frankly, his performance earlier in the day is usually far superior to his contribution after the dinner break. That is up to him. The redfaced Premier comes into this chamber and attacks the member for West Swan, a young pregnant woman. The Premier cannot stand hearing her speak. Every time the member for West Swan gets to her feet, we know that the Premier will be in here trying to abuse and intimidate her. That is the way he approaches politics. He cannot stand that there is a clever, intelligent woman on this side of the chamber who has been elected to Parliament to represent the people of West Swan in a very forthright manner. Every time she speaks, the Premier comes in here, whether he is sober or not, and interjects from his chair.

    Withdrawal of Remark

    Dr M.D. NAHAN: The member for Cannington made a claim that the Premier was intoxicated.

    Ms M.M. Quirk: No, he didn’t. He never said that.

    Dr M.D. NAHAN: Yes, he did. I suggest that he retract that.

    Mr M. McGOWAN: The member said words to the effect of “comes in here, whether he is sober or not”. He did not allege that the Premier was intoxicated. I might add that the Premier’s behaviour at this time of the night is something that needs to be —

    Mr R.F. Johnson: Sit down. You’re making a point of order.

    Mr M. McGOWAN: The Leader of the House should just be quiet. The Premier’s behaviour is disrupting the entire house. I ask that he desist because members want to have their say on this legislation, and the interjections that he is making are completely disorderly.

    The ACTING SPEAKER: It is improper in this house to impugn the character of another member. To imply that a member of this house may or may not be sober upon entering this house is not parliamentary.

    Mr W.J. JOHNSTON: Madam Acting Speaker, if you could draw my attention to the words that I used, I will be happy to withdraw them.

    The ACTING SPEAKER: Just withdraw, member for Cannington.

    Mr W.J. JOHNSTON: I withdraw.]

  21. Oh dear, it seems the Treasurer is having a spot of bother in claiming money he isn’t entitled to.

    [Treasurer Troy Buswell has slipped up on his parliamentary expenses, claiming a living-away-from-home accommodation refund he was not entitled to – and now the Opposition says he should be sacked.

    An investigation by Channel 7 has revealed Mr Buswell claimed $240 for staying at his home-away-from-home in Shenton Park on July 15 this year, when he was in fact at his home in Busselton.

    As a country MP, Mr Buswell is entitled to claim more than $30,000 a year for living in the city.

    Mr Buswell tonight admitted he made a mistake, calling the incident a “simple administrative oversight”, and said he would conduct a full audit into his expense claims to make sure no other errors had occurred.

    Mr Buswell said he had not intentionally made a false claim for his accommodation expenses and the money would be repaid.

    Speaking at a regional sitting of Parliament in Bunbury, Mr Buswell said he had instructed his office to conduct an audit of his expense claims and the preliminary investigation had not uncovered any further discrepancies.

    Mr Buswell dismissed Opposition claims that the mistake was a poor reflection on his ability to manage the State’s finances as “nonsense”.

    “From my point of view it is a simple administrative error, regrettable and unfortunate,” Mr Buswell said.

    “I have asked my staff in my Perth office and my Busselton office to conduct a full audit of the claims we have made.

    “On top of that we are putting in place some internal administrative checks in my office to make sure that we have a more thorough regime for checking the claims.

    “It’s a mistake and mistakes like that shouldn’t happen, unfortunately it did. Ultimately it is my responsibility.”]

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/6367127/buswell-s-errant-expense-claim/

  22. Frank: another article hereabout how the Ellenbrook line is probably dead, but not being made public. I imagine this was on discussion at your meeting, up that part of the world… any gossip? 🙂

  23. [Frank: another article hereabout how the Ellenbrook line is probably dead, but not being made public. I imagine this was on discussion at your meeting, up that part of the world… any gossip? :)]

    Yes, it was discussed and I’m going to put the wheels in motion to get some sort of flyer going in Ellenbrook – oh and and the Branch has agreed to my motion re urging Labor to oppose the Search Powers – and I’m now officially a hack – was elected Vice President 🙂

  24. [Yes, it was discussed and I’m going to put the wheels in motion to get some sort of flyer going in Ellenbrook – oh and and the Branch has agreed to my motion re urging Labor to oppose the Search Powers – and I’m now officially a hack – was elected Vice President ]

    frank
    dont sell yourself short, you are the best hack around.
    Congratulations anyway
    🙂

  28. [Congratulations, Frank (I think).

    I take it the wine will be flowing freely and free at the vinyard this weekend? 🙂 ]

    As always 🙂 – you in the neighbourhood again ? 🙂

  29. Not this weekend, but I’ll be calling by soon enough to stock up for Christmas.

    Does being vice president mean you have to be nicer to the Greens when you negotiate preference swaps?

  30. [Does being vice president mean you have to be nicer to the Greens when you negotiate preference swaps?]

    Nope, VP only has to turn up to meetings – The President does the grovelling 🙂

  32. Gees, going through the old WA Election posts, I came across this from “L’, and eerily it has come true.

    [L
    Posted Monday, September 8, 2008 at 12:45 am | Permalink

    What’e the bet Labor pull the pin on the Ellenbrook rail line – they lost Swan Hills anyway – and pump the cash to the Nats’ slush fund in exchange for support?

    I f***ing hate the Nationals, and tend to agree with Keating’s description of them as “that vile entity”, but hey, power is power….]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/09/07/photo-finishes-lower-house/comment-page-4/#comment-186443

  33. Whoops, I read it wrong, I thought he was referring to the Libs, but I guess it can also apply to Simple Simon O’Brien 🙂

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