Newspoll: 59-41

The third Newspoll in consecutive weeks is another disaster for the Coalition, showing Labor’s lead widening still further despite the government’s recent discomfort over boat arrivals. Labor is now ahead 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 58-42 at both last week’s unusual poll and last fortnight’s usual one. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down two points to 65 per cent while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. UPDATE: Graphic here: interestingly, 4 per cent has marched from satisfied with Kevin Rudd to dissatisfied, but Malcolm Turnbull’s disapproval rating is up six points as well. Labor leads 48 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote.

Elsewhere:

• Labor’s lead is steady at 58-42 according to the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which seems to be more closely resembling Newspoll than it used to. There are also various questions on the parties’ approaches to the global financial crisis and the rise in interest rates.

• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Matthew Groom, son of former Premier Ray Groom, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the state lower house division of Denison. Neales suggests the “corporate lawyer with Tasmanian state-owned wind power company Roaring 40s” is likely to win a spot on the ticket when the party finalises preselection on Monday, which it earlier deferred because party leaders were “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent” (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham clarifies the situation in comments: Elise Archer, Michael Hodgman and Matt Stevenson were preselected in March, and the remainder of the ticket is to be finalised on Monday). Others reportedly seeking preselection are veteran incumbent Michael Hodgman, who is 70 years old and battling ill health which recently forced him to relinquish the Shadow Attorney-General position; Jenny Branch, a Glenorchy alderman who polled strongly as an independent against Treasurer Michael Aird in his upper house seat of Derwent in April; and Elise Archer, a Hobart alderman. Another Hobart alderman, regular independent candidate Marti Zucco, has been mentioned as a starter, but appears to face powerful opposition in the Liberal organisation. The result in Denison at the 2006 election was Labor three, Liberal one and Greens one; Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics rates the Liberals a solid chance of taking a second seat, possibly at the expense of accident-prone Labor incumbent Graeme Sturges.

• The Queensland Greens have preselected their unsuccessful Senate candidate from 2007, Larissa Waters, to head their ticket at the next election. Waters prevailed in a three-way contest over Jenny Stirling and Libby Connors, party activists and frequent candidates respectively based in Townsville and Toowoomba.

• Republished courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble, Malcolm Mackerras in the Canberra Times lambasts Peter Dutton and his supporters over his reluctance to stand and fight in Dickson, and confidently predicts he will now not only contest the seat but win it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  2. JimmyD, it is funny you mention that. Yesterday when Sharmane Stoned asked an immigration question to Robert McLelland, I clearly heard Rudd say something like “Well that isn’t a Warringah or North Sydney question.” He was obviously implying that many urban Liberal members wouldn’t go near asking a question like that.

    We also find out that in today’s Coalition party room meeting one MP opposed the opposition making a political issue out of asylum seekers:
    [There was also discussion of asylum-seekers and support for continuing to criticise what the opposition sees as Labor’s softer line on immigration.

    However, one MP disagreed with this course. ]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26235845-601,00.html

  3. [I think the Sex Party is making a mistake aligning themselves with the Bikie, oh my mistake, Free Australia Party.

    It will just seem like they are a coalition of pimps and prostitutes.]

    LOL!

    The platform behind the bikie party is (mostly) good in theory, as it promotes a civil libertarian stance, but nobody including I would consider voting for them based on who’s behind it.

  4. [A straight-talking Ms Bishop told colleagues the poor Newspoll result was undoubtedly a reflection of the fact the public perceived the Coalition to be a “rabble”.

    “When we are united our stocks go up, when we are a rabble, or seen to be a rabble, they go down,” she told the meeting. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26235897-5005962,00.html

    A sustained record-breaking streak of 55-60 Labor 2PP is considered as stocks going up? Wow…

  5. [We also find out that in today’s Coalition party room meeting one MP opposed the opposition making a political issue out of asylum seekers]

    My guess is that would be Judi Moylan.

    [Moderate Liberal MP and veteran critic of the Howard-era policies on refugees, Judi Moylan, said the debate over refugees was already on “dangerous ground”.

    She called for a bipartisan approach. “I don’t think it should be politicised,” she said.

    “I’m really concerned about where we’re heading. We’re on dangerous ground.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26221215-16953,00.html

  6. Turnbull has hit rock bottom now, dogwhistling questions are all he has left.
    Someone called out “You are better than that malcolm”

  16. [Turnbull is more leftwing then even Kevin Rudd so it’s understandable why the party is losing support.]

    Who gave the coalition red cordial
    😉

  22. Bringing on a MoPI on asylum seekers, if that is what they will do, while Kevin is away is a bit rough. Maybe they think Julia is a weak link.

  25. [At the 1966 federal election SA produced a massive swing to the Libs because they were unhappy with the Walsh Labor government. Labor lost Adelaide, Grey and Kingston. By 1969 they were unhappy with the Hall Liberal government, so they produced an even bigger swing back to Labor. Labor regained Adelaide, Grey and Kingston, and the new seat of Hawker, and won Sturt as well.]
    Adam, as you’re no doubt aware those swings in 1966 and 1969 were not unique to SA. Why on earth do you attribute them to the performance of the contemporary state governments?

  26. [What a bizarre interjection from Bishop…]
    I’ve decided that Julie Bishop is actually a Dadaist performance artist pretending to be a politician.

  27. [Maybe they think Julia is a weak link.]

    Hard to believe. She brushes aside their best shots with such ease that they are probably relieved when Rudd returns from an absence.

  29. Sky news on now saying asylum seekers have dominated Qt and the Opposition is ramping up their attack.
    Attack! they gotta be joking! Libs had pea-shooters up against Julia’s bazooka 😀

  33. Just catching up on posts over lunch.

    Psephos @122 says:

    “On the other hand, if we have another stinker of a summer with more serious fires, a March election on the theme of “see we told you climate change was real” would be attractive, short Senate or not.”

    Can see why that would make them go a DD and suffer a shorter second term than they need to. If we did have another bad fire summer, the memories will linger and it would still be a very effective campaign point in September.

    Also, isn’t the Henry report on the Taxation system due in December? I think that once that is in hand the Govt will be wanting to begin to implement some of its recommendations. I’m not sure if they would do much with it by the 2010 budget (or maybe just the easiest things it recommends), but they may be going to leverage off its recommendations to support a second term economic reform agenda?

    That could be a good follow up to their management of the GFC in their first term.

    Anyway, if Rudd and Co are thinking of something like that as strategy i think they would really wanting to go a full, 3 year 2nd term and not have to worry about having an election after a couple of years.

    Unless they see some compelling advantage in having House and Senate elections at different times??

  35. Hamish 181

    It would be amusing to see what the coalition’s motives are for opposing the break-up. It allows greater competition and all that. Do some of them still own Telstra shares? If so do they decare a conflict of interest before sprouting this nonsense?

  38. 4 minutes divisions during question time are pointless. Surely a sensible change the standing orders would be to make divisions only 1 minute if they are called during question time.

  40. [Adam, as you’re no doubt aware those swings in 1966 and 1969 were not unique to SA. Why on earth do you attribute them to the performance of the contemporary state governments?]

    Two-party swings 1966:
    NSW 6.7 Lib
    Vic 3.3 Lib
    Qld 4.0 Lib
    SA 13.3 Lib
    WA 1.6 ALP
    Tas 0.9 Lib

    Two-party swings 1969
    NSW 8.8 ALP
    Vic 5.6 ALP
    Qld 6.0 ALP
    SA 12.1 ALP
    WA 7.8 ALP
    Tas 4.2 ALP

    As you can see, the swings in SA were by far the biggest in Australia at both elections. This was attributed at the time to state factors as I described above. I refer you to Jaensch & Blewett “Playford to Dunstan” for an account of this period.

  41. A lead story on the ABC about the national farmers Federation splitting from the National Party over the ETS:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/20/2719209.htm

    Barnaby Joyce says the farmers are out of touch!! As a previous poster has pointed out, farmers stand to be one of the biggest losers from climate change. Who does Joyce think he is representing? Will this see the (sooner) demise of the Qld nationals?

  42. Fair enough. The swings were certainly well above average.

    Strange that the Walsh govt could’ve been that much on the nose and yet Labor, under Dunstan, was almost returned at the next state election in 1968 (and surely would have been on fair boundaries.)

    The 1969 swing could be read as being merely a correction of the aberrant 1966 result.

    Anyway, thanks for that.

  45. My (rather dim) memory is that Frank Walsh, who was 68 in 1965, was very old-time Labor, a poor TV performer, and out of his depth as Premier. Clyde Cameron pretty much forced him to retire in 1967 and, as you say, Dunstan very nearly win in 1968 despite the Playmander. The Hall government thus lacked legitimacy as Hall himself acknowledged.

  46. [and yet Labor, under Dunstan, was almost returned at the next state election in 1968 (and surely would have been on fair boundaries.)]
    Same thing happened when Dustan retired. Corcoran lost in a landslide in 1979, then Bannon won with nearly a 6% swing in 1982.

    Although it wasn’t a Labor win, Rann’s performance in 1997 was quite amazing. The Liberals won government with a 9.1% 2pp swing in the 1993 ‘State Bank’ election. But then in the 1997 election there was a 9.5% (11 seat) swing to Labor. That is quite an astonishing achievement for an opposition after just one term, and after one of its worst losses in history (Labor in 1992 only managed 39% of the 2pp vote!)

  49. ShowsOn
    Yes true but isn’t that a silly strategy? I imagine most of the big money coal interests will vote Liberal rather than National anyway, and meanwhile they are ditching their one core group of long term supporters.

    Whether I like him or not, I can at least follow somone like Wilson Tuckey supporting mining ahead of farming – the mining industry is the backbone of his electorate. But what remains of national party electorates without farming? I would have thought most of the mining towns would fall into the category of urbanising seats Adam referred to before that would vote Liberal or Labor.

  50. Though Malcolm Mackerras says:

    [Dutton will come to his senses, admit he made a fool of himself (for which he will be forgiven), contest Dickson as the Liberal candidate, and win. Labor’s attempt to paint Dutton as a deserter will be treated with the contempt it deserves.]

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