The third Newspoll in consecutive weeks is another disaster for the Coalition, showing Labor’s lead widening still further despite the government’s recent discomfort over boat arrivals. Labor is now ahead 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 58-42 at both last week’s unusual poll and last fortnight’s usual one. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down two points to 65 per cent while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. UPDATE: Graphic here: interestingly, 4 per cent has marched from satisfied with Kevin Rudd to dissatisfied, but Malcolm Turnbull’s disapproval rating is up six points as well. Labor leads 48 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote.
Elsewhere:
• Labor’s lead is steady at 58-42 according to the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which seems to be more closely resembling Newspoll than it used to. There are also various questions on the parties’ approaches to the global financial crisis and the rise in interest rates.
• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Matthew Groom, son of former Premier Ray Groom, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the state lower house division of Denison. Neales suggests the “corporate lawyer with Tasmanian state-owned wind power company Roaring 40s” is likely to win a spot on the ticket when the party finalises preselection on Monday, which it earlier deferred because party leaders were “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent” (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham clarifies the situation in comments: Elise Archer, Michael Hodgman and Matt Stevenson were preselected in March, and the remainder of the ticket is to be finalised on Monday). Others reportedly seeking preselection are veteran incumbent Michael Hodgman, who is 70 years old and battling ill health which recently forced him to relinquish the Shadow Attorney-General position; Jenny Branch, a Glenorchy alderman who polled strongly as an independent against Treasurer Michael Aird in his upper house seat of Derwent in April; and Elise Archer, a Hobart alderman. Another Hobart alderman, regular independent candidate Marti Zucco, has been mentioned as a starter, but appears to face powerful opposition in the Liberal organisation. The result in Denison at the 2006 election was Labor three, Liberal one and Greens one; Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics rates the Liberals a solid chance of taking a second seat, possibly at the expense of accident-prone Labor incumbent Graeme Sturges.
• The Queensland Greens have preselected their unsuccessful Senate candidate from 2007, Larissa Waters, to head their ticket at the next election. Waters prevailed in a three-way contest over Jenny Stirling and Libby Connors, party activists and frequent candidates respectively based in Townsville and Toowoomba.
• Republished courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble, Malcolm Mackerras in the Canberra Times lambasts Peter Dutton and his supporters over his reluctance to stand and fight in Dickson, and confidently predicts he will now not only contest the seat but win it.
[and meanwhile they are ditching their one core group of long term supporters. ]
The Nationals Party isn’t only for farmers, it’s for bush accountants too!
[the mining industry is the backbone of his electorate. ]
Doesn’t he have a lot of wheat farmers as well?
Labor would be better off just pursuing the “normal” issues in Dickson The swing to the government since the election would be nearly enough to win anyway? attacking Dutton directly looks mean spirited. The voters can work out for themselves what Dutton’s real interests are by now.
[Though Malcolm Mackerras says:]
Yeah, well I suspected Dutton would re-contest Dickson simply because it seemed all other options had closed.
I’m still not sure what Mackerras’ reasoning for predicting Dutton will win are. Maybe he thinks the Labor vote in QLD is at a high water mark, so Dutton will be saved by the inability of Labor to squeeze out a swing in that state?
ShowsON
Sorry you are right – Tuckey’s electorate is almost all wheat belt; I thought he was in the north west, not great southern. In that case he should be asked the same question. He isn’t representing his constitutent’s interests.
[The swing to the government since the election would be nearly enough to win anyway?]
I don’t think so, the swing in QLD has only been about 0.6%:
The thing that has made it hard for Dutton is the redistribution, which made the seat 1% Labor already without a swing taken into account.
[In that case he should be asked the same question. He isn’t representing his constitutent’s interests.]
He is representing his own inability to comprehend climate change.
Showson
Thanks; an excellent link. Seeing those swing numbers for SA makes me hopeful of my ability to influence Chris Pyne’s career choices at the next election.
Rudd portrays himself, as does his supporters, that he is a compassionate, humane, and morally upstanding Christian. How does he reconcile this characterisation with his actions and rhetoric regarding asylum seekers. Politics, law and morality all have a bearing on this issue. Rudd obviously thinks that domestic politics and playing to the racists and xenophobes in Australia is the most important factor. Compassionate, humane, moral, Christian like – Hardly.
Today’s Crikey has an article which deals with this disconnect.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/10/20/asylum-seekers-territorial-security-versus-electoral-suicide/
Asylum seekers: territorial security versus electoral suicide by Jeff Sparrow
[…If you’re a believer, not much wriggle room, one would think, on the question of asylum seekers.
A few days ago, Paul Kelly neatly summarised the way Labor and Liberal understand the refugee issue. The “bedrock truth”, Kelly explained, is that there is “an unresolved conflict between the rights of the democratic state and the rights of asylum-seekers”.
You see, if you put the question like that, you can neatly sidestep the horrific situation facing the Tamils. Sure, there’s been an atrocious civil war. Sure, they’re herded into camps lacking food, water or health care. Sure, because they’ve been cut off from the outside world, they have no access to the “official channels” to appeal for refugee status. Sure, if any of us were in their situation, we’d be getting our families on to the first available boat, too.
Ah, but if asylum seekers have rights, so too does the democratic state, and one claim can be balanced against the other. In that contest, the government will come down every time on the side of territorial security, if only because of a perception (whether right or wrong) that the other choice would be electoral suicide.]
Dutton will have a very good chance in Dickson.
The electorate is Redneck Central and the Courier Mail, which is nothing more these days than a Liberal Party Newsletter, will be doing their best to get him home. 🙁
Strathpine will swing to incumbency – and take Dickson with it… you watch
[Rudd portrays himself, as does his supporters, that he is a compassionate, humane, and morally upstanding Christian.]
I think it is excellent that Rudd doesn’t base public policy decisions on religious dogma.
Stop me if I’m wrong but, I think Bob sometimes predicts things that he doesn’t like, or points out things that he doesn’t think are good. These predictions are sometimes misinterpreted as a wishlist, which they are not. Saying “I think the British Tories will thrash Labour” is not the same as saying “I hope the British Tories thrash Labour”, but if you repeat the first sentence enough times people start hearing the second.
By that I mean “government incumbency”
I finally pulled my finger out and am reading a biography of Ramanujan, who was an Indian Tamil mathematical genius. He was a national hero and there hasn’t been a single reference to his Tamil background being remotely a problem. He died in the 1930s.
Have things changed in India for the Tamils to make India an unfavourable destination for Sri Lankan Tamils?
[Strathpine will swing to incumbency – and take Dickson with it… you watch]
Sorry, so do you mean it will swing towards the Rudd government? Or it will swing towards Dutton?
Diog if you had a choice of living in India or Australia which would you pick?
208
Crikey tries to walk both sides of the street just like Today Tonight. Asking Sparrow to write a piece on asylum seekers is like asking Tim Costello to write a piece on gambling – you know exactly what he will deliver.
Two union leaders who are publicly expressing concerns about Rudd’s stance on asylum seekers…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26233952-5013871,00.html
[AWU national secretary Paul Howes said while the asylum-seeker debate brought out the worst in Australians and their politicians, he warned that Labor had a responsibility to lead on the issue.
“We’re seeing the same rhetoric being ramped up,” Mr Howes said, referring to the 2001 federal election, which was fought in the shadow of the Tampa crisis.
“It’s really important for Labor to have a compassionate line on this to demonstrate leadership. This is an issue about leadership. It won’t be popular in the electorate, but this is the right thing to do.”
Mr Howes’s concerns were echoed by the CFMEU’s national secretary for construction, David Noonan, who warned politicians against revisiting the “dark days” of Tampa, when John Howard ordered the SAS to board the Norwegian container ship to stop its 430 rescued passengers from entering Australia.]
216
What’s that got to do with anything? Just come out and say what you mean.
Dio
I knew a friend in my previous employer who came from Sri Lanka (the Tamil part). He said that, since independence the country had become more and more corrupt, and the ruling faction was from the Sinhalese majority. Remember they got independence in 1948 after Ramanujan was dead, with the independence movement being mainly Sinhalese. Obviously things got a lot worse during the Civil war from the 80s on.
Glen
There would have to be lots of advantages for a Tamil going to India rather than Oz. The language, customs, religion etc would be a much easier transition, and it’s a hell of a lot closer and safer to get to. In the end, my question is why the Tamils made the decision they did.
I don’t know the answer.
[Two union leaders who are publicly expressing concerns about Rudd’s stance on asylum seekers…]
I don’t agree with their positions. Howes explicitly stated on Sky News yesterday that he thinks the asylum seekers should be taken to Christmas Island.
But if the government does that for one boat, then won’t it be expected to do it for all other boats?
If people think we should take more refugees, then they should just say that Australia should lift its quota. I believe this year it is about 13,000, whereas if we were to match Canada in per capita terms we would be accepting 20,000, and would thus be the world leader in accepting refugees.
I think this would make a lot more sense than saying the Australian government should escort boats to Christmas Island, which is effectively just helping people smugglers do their illegal job.
Don’t know if anyone has been keeping up with the debate in the US, but Obama has blacklisted Fox News for not being a news network. Funny, considering that Fox News has unravelled ACORN corruption, Van Jones and even skewered Anita Dunn for worshipping Mao.
Pegasus
although you keep trying to make it sound as if it is, this is not Tampa.
The nearest port for the Sri Lankans, for example, is the one they’re in.
You have not explained – and neither do the union leaders quoted above (btw, being a union leader does not automatically make you any more important than other authority) – how we should select these refugees, given the thousands who are waiting in camps.
Do you think it should be on the basis of them volunteering that they want to come to Australia? If so, should we take any refugee, anywhere, who expresses this wish?
Or do they have to risk their lives first, as a sign of their good faith? And if so, what is an acceptable risk, in your eyes?
Stop quoting other people and give us a few answers yourself.
218 Pegasus
I know some union officials who are pleased that Rudd has taken a firm stand.
Since when did union officials become the community moral barometer?
Diog the simplest explanation is that they could afford it, whilst many other cannot.
Was there any discussion of this on the last thread where William posted it in his thread blog:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-may-end-union-funding-20091015-gz9i.html
What do PBers, particularly ALP PBers think of ‘Blairising’ the ALP? Is it likely? Would you welcome it?
Dio
Sorry I completely misread your question. Myu post was explaining who so many tamils want ot leave. No, I would have thought Tamil Nadu in India was still a preferred destination, unless they have too many refugees already. I understand they have resettled 200,000 or so, which makes our problem look rather trivial.
Glen
In my experience the south is the best educated and most tolerant part of India. Life there is not too bad.
Unfortunately, Malcolm Mackerras’s Liberal roots have, I feel, clouded his judgement a little in regards Dutton’s chances of holding Dickson.
If Dutton’s personal vote was in the 1.5 to 2% area, he has undoubtedly squandered that now. Mackerras makes a valid claim that voters are not fools and can see through spin and propaganda. If that scenario follows in Dickson, then Dutton is toast.
[Mackerras was a member of the ACT Young Liberals in the late 1960s. [1] His second employer was the Federal Secretariat of the Liberal Party of Australia for which he was a research officer (1960-1967). The organisation moved him to Canberra where he has lived continuously since 1965. He spent several years as a ministerial assistant and three years as an economist with the Chamber of Manufactures (1968-1970), “trying to present the case for protection for Australian manufacturing industry”.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Mackerras
Badly worded……meant…
Rudd portrays himself, as does his supporters, that he is compassionate, humane, and a morally upstanding Christian.
Based on the current polling, Dutton will lose Dickson badly – one hopes the ALP preselects a decent candidate, perhaps the woman who almost won the seat last time.
And if Dutton cares about Dickson so much, why didn’t he turn up when the first sod was turned for the GP Clinic in Strathpyne(as Roxon pointed out today in QT)?
[Since when did union officials become the community moral barometer?]
Well I think it makes more sense than when religious officials are trotted out as society’s moral barometers.
[Unfortunately, Malcolm Mackerras’s Liberal roots have, I feel, clouded his judgement a little in regards Dutton’s chances of holding Dickson.]
Yeah I must admit I don’t really understand WHY Mackerras thinks Dutton will win Dickson. I think his chances are far worse now than before he tried to jump to McPherson.
[Based on the current polling, Dutton will lose Dickson badly ]
Well, I wouldn’t say badly. On currently polling he would lose it by about 1.6%.
[And if Dutton cares about Dickson so much, why didn’t he turn up when the first sod was turned for the GP Clinic in Strathpyne]
That’s simple. He doesn’t want to be seen to be endorsing government policy.
[Rudd portrays himself, as does his supporters, that he is compassionate, humane, and a morally upstanding Christian.]
I’d reword that to:
Rudd is a compassionate, humane, and a morally upstanding Christian.
If you are prepared for Rudd to completely embrace those who would arrive on our doorstep demanding entry then you must also be prepared for Labor to lose the next election (if not the next then almost certainly the one after) which will result in even harsher treatment of asylum seekers. In addition you must prepare yourself for a return to unfair workplace legislation, pork barrelling of National electorates at the expense of poor working class electorates plus all of the other nastiness that comes with modern day Liberal governments.
I’d rather stick with the firm but fair policy in place today.
[although you keep trying to make it sound as if it is, this is not Tampa.]
You’re spot on, Zoomster.
The diabolical aspect of the Tampa affair was that Howard and his malevolent Minister, Peter Reith, concocted a hoax scenario of children being thrown overboard by their parents, which was equalled in mendacity only by Howard’s lies about the need for Australia to join George Bush’s invasion of Iraq to remove non-existent weapons of mass destruction.
When the truth of the Tampa hoax became clear, Reith took the fall for Howard.
Tom Hawkins at 234: Reading between the lines:
The spin is true: Rudd is free of sin.
Watch out! Its the boogyman coming from the North to over-run us!
The ALP is better than the Tories – be afraid of their return. Therefore accept everything the ALP ever does because without us you’ll have an even worse government.
237
You can read between the lines as much as you like.
[When the truth of the Tampa hoax became clear, Reith took the fall for Howard.]
Only after he’d secured himself a plum job in a life after politics.
The Heysen Molotov @226, I’m normally loathe to directly link my own blog, but seeing as you asked, I wrote a little about these issues yesterday.
http://oqurum.com/?p=320
Apologies (sort of) to William.
[Based on the current polling, Dutton will lose Dickson badly]
My understanding is that the Libs have extensively polled Dickson recently and the results showed that Dutton’s chances there were hopeless, hence the attempt to shoe-horn him into McPherson.
If they were that bad before, then Dutton’s chances have to be worse now!
[If they were that bad before, then Dutton’s chances have to be worse now!]
That’s what I would’ve thought. But Mackerras seems to think the fact he is a high profile front bencher will save him. But he seems to be high profile mainly because of his desire to leave the electorate.
He should go to the back bench and say he is dedicating himself to winning the seat.
[Dunstan is my Homeboy!]
THM, he’s the hero of a dissolutioned Labor voter in SA! 😀
Here we go again re “Defence Pay Scandal”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/20/2719352.htm?section=justin
[Only after he’d secured himself a plum job in a life after politics.]
True, Tom. Reith was “incentivated” to take the fall.
I have made quite a few posts relating to asylum seekers in which I have cited authoritative sources about the precarious conditions in the camps and detention centres in Indonesia and Sri Lanka and what the Australian government is doing to support them. That is where my concern lies.
As I am not an expert in the field, I read widely to obtain as many perspectives as I can and provide the links here so other readers can be informed as I have. Nothing wrong with doing that. To demand that I come up with a policy of my own is completely unreasonable.
I have been asked to enter in discussions focussing on the relative morality of various situations regarding asylum seeker safety. That has not and is not the focus of my concern.
I am critical of Rudd because of the disconnect between his rhetoric and his actions regarding asylum seekers. Having a policy that at the moment appears to be predominantly geared towards the interception of boat people before they reach Australian territorial waters and the mainland is not sustainable.
People smugglers will exist as long as there are no other avenues for asylum seekers to escape intolerable and life threatening situations. Asylum seekers know that a sea voyage in an unseaworthy ship is risky yet they will not be deterred from attempting the crossing. They will keep coming.
Australia is not sharing the regional burden. He is washing his hands of any responsibility and is not displaying leadership.
Understandably the PB Alpers do not like what I am saying and posting about. I have stated my opinion as all of you here do. I back up my opinions with cited authoritative references. If you don’t like it, that’s not my problem.
The Skynews television precis blurb on the latest Newspoll doesn’t sugarcoat it for Turnbull this time around. Their opening paragraph states that voters are still unimpressed with Turnbull’s performance. Also mentioned is that Labor Party would have a landslide win if election were held now.
The Heysen Molotov @ 226,
The first part, yes there was discussion and a link or two provided.
Secondly, there will be no Blairisation of the Unions in Australia. Totally different background to the relationship between the parties and the Union movements in Britain and Australia.
Labour in Britain formed as a discrete entity to which some of the Union movement formed alliance with.
Labor in Australia originated directly from the Union movement as a political arm and continues in that vein today and will remain so, although the union influence has declined in line with decline in membership but will always be an integrable part of the ALP.
Cheers Rewi Lyall
How do you think breaking or loosening ties with Unions will go down with public? To some it will be the moment in Animal Farm when the Pigs and the Humans are indistinguishable – the charade will be over. To others it will be viewed warmly, especially if linked to removing power for factional heavyweights.