The third Newspoll in consecutive weeks is another disaster for the Coalition, showing Labor’s lead widening still further despite the government’s recent discomfort over boat arrivals. Labor is now ahead 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 58-42 at both last week’s unusual poll and last fortnight’s usual one. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down two points to 65 per cent while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. UPDATE: Graphic here: interestingly, 4 per cent has marched from satisfied with Kevin Rudd to dissatisfied, but Malcolm Turnbull’s disapproval rating is up six points as well. Labor leads 48 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote.
Elsewhere:
• Labor’s lead is steady at 58-42 according to the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which seems to be more closely resembling Newspoll than it used to. There are also various questions on the parties’ approaches to the global financial crisis and the rise in interest rates.
• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Matthew Groom, son of former Premier Ray Groom, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the state lower house division of Denison. Neales suggests the “corporate lawyer with Tasmanian state-owned wind power company Roaring 40s” is likely to win a spot on the ticket when the party finalises preselection on Monday, which it earlier deferred because party leaders were “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent” (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham clarifies the situation in comments: Elise Archer, Michael Hodgman and Matt Stevenson were preselected in March, and the remainder of the ticket is to be finalised on Monday). Others reportedly seeking preselection are veteran incumbent Michael Hodgman, who is 70 years old and battling ill health which recently forced him to relinquish the Shadow Attorney-General position; Jenny Branch, a Glenorchy alderman who polled strongly as an independent against Treasurer Michael Aird in his upper house seat of Derwent in April; and Elise Archer, a Hobart alderman. Another Hobart alderman, regular independent candidate Marti Zucco, has been mentioned as a starter, but appears to face powerful opposition in the Liberal organisation. The result in Denison at the 2006 election was Labor three, Liberal one and Greens one; Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics rates the Liberals a solid chance of taking a second seat, possibly at the expense of accident-prone Labor incumbent Graeme Sturges.
• The Queensland Greens have preselected their unsuccessful Senate candidate from 2007, Larissa Waters, to head their ticket at the next election. Waters prevailed in a three-way contest over Jenny Stirling and Libby Connors, party activists and frequent candidates respectively based in Townsville and Toowoomba.
• Republished courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble, Malcolm Mackerras in the Canberra Times lambasts Peter Dutton and his supporters over his reluctance to stand and fight in Dickson, and confidently predicts he will now not only contest the seat but win it.
La Grattan on Their RN this morning also said Turnbull had a win – being back in the country for just a day or so, i was expecting something big – “by getting his Party’s approval to negotiate”.
Urhhhhh, this is a win for a party leader? Things must be desperate in the desolation row.
Bob@38:
[Well then Labor didn’t maintain an 18% lead did they?
I realise that 1% is well and truly within MoE so statistically this individual Newspoll is insignificant, but at the same time it is also incorrect to say the “government is maintaining an 18 percentage point lead”…]
Bob, try reading the figures:
[That compares to 42:58 in the previous poll.]
which is a 16% lead.
This time it is 59 to 41, an 18% lead. In fact, they are dissing the opposition, not lauding it by saying that the 18% lead has been maintained.
So ok, they could have said “has shot to an overwhelming 18% lead” but that is an unlikely comment from the OO.
[So Fran Kelly is not too worried about the 59/41 since 4% are less satisfied with Rudd. Whatever proves your point dear]
A 4% shift is much more significant than a 1% shift however.
don – Labor, technically, did not maintain an 18% 2pp lead – the OO claimed he did.
Bob@54:
[don – Labor, technically, did not maintain an 18% 2pp lead – the OO claimed he did.]
Don’t accuse the OO of spin if you are going to do it yourself.
[A 4% shift is much more significant than a 1% shift however.]
Bob, only to you!
Another indication of the tricky position of the media business model…about 14% reduction in newsroom
[THE New York Times plans to cut 100 newsroom jobs, about eight per cent of the total workforce, by the end of the year…The Times carried out a similar buyout program last year, reducing its news department head count from more than 1,330 to about 1,250, and it slashed the pay of most employees earlier this year by five per cent for most of this year.]
[Like other US newspapers, the Times has been grappling with a steep drop in print advertising revenue and the migration of readers to free news online.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,25197,26234531-643,00.html
Revenue reduction -> cost reduction -> likely relative quality reduction -> likely revenue reduction
Listen to this spin on the numbers (makes bob’s spin seem child like).
A reporter on 3AW explained that the increase in Labor’s TPP and primary vote was due to the Libs being fractured over the ETS while Rudd’s drop in PPM and Turnbull’s rise of 1% is due to the boat people issueand show that Turnbull is making headway. LOL. Now that’s creative.
issueand show = issue and shows
[Republished courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble, Malcolm Mackerras in the Canberra Times lambasts Peter Dutton and his supporters over his reluctance to stand and fight in Dickson, and confidently predicts he will now not only contest the seat but win it.]
Is that a typo? The good people of Dickson won’t vote for someone who has clearly demonstrated that he would rather be somewhere else (Pat Farmer take note).
[Bob, only to you!]
4% to 1%… margin of error mean anything to you?
Just looking at Shana’s colum: What proof does he have of this?
[debt and deficit are now a concern of most Australians ]
Evan14 @ 39
That would be the reverse Tampa with twist!
[A reporter on 3AW explained that the increase in Labor’s TPP and primary vote was due to the Libs being fractured over the ETS while Rudd’s drop in PPM and Turnbull’s rise of 1% is due to the boat people issueand show that Turnbull is making headway. LOL. Now that’s creative.]
But feasible.
Labor 2pp up 1
Better PM Rudd down 2 Turnbull up 1
Satisfaction Rudd down 4, dissatisfied up 4 – Turnbull down 1 up 6.
If people were overall happy to stick with Rudd but dissatisfied over his response to asylum seekers and were unhappy with Turnbull’s response compared to what Howard’s response would have been – then all those numbers would fit with what the reporter is saying.
It might be true, it mightnt be, but at least there’s some evidence that can be used to assert such claims.
Some people here get hung up on specific numbers in these polls. Folks, as always, it is the trend that we should be monitoring.
My view is that over the last couple of months Labor’s support has strengthened from the 56/44 level to around 58/42. The latest Newspoll is interesting in that not only are the numbers consolidating at the higher level, but may in fact be pushing on to a new level. The next couple of polls will confirm this.
Possum has analysed the data and make the point that it is unusual for a metric like the PM’s popularity to go backwards when the Government’s goes forward. This could be because of one off factors like asylum seekers or it could be a blip. Again we need to wait for another poll till we start jumping to conclusion.
The other disastrous figure is for the Liberals only achieving 30%. Next stop 20s?
[But feasible.]
Crap
bob, Rudd’s PPM went down 2% and Turnbull up 1%. To quote you “margin of error mean anything to you?”
People can spin this how they like but the trend is pretty obvious. The coalition is a slowly sinking ship, at best holding steady in a losing position, at worst going further backwards. For anyone who claims othrewise I lookm forward to another of Poss’s moving average graphs.
I think the obvious implication of this is good news for the ETS passage. The coalition are in no position to even contemplate a DD, adn the ETS was one of the few differentiating “mandate” issues at the last election that Rudd would be justified in going back to the polls over. So obviously, a few Liberals in the Senate will support an ETS, amendments or not, while the nutbars will posture to the bush by “defying their leader” and voting against the ETS. Some of them will think that will make them look astute, but to most people they will just look weak. That look is accurate.
The worst thing Rudd could do is cave in to watering down the ETS. It would only help the coalition, and weaken his own credibility. He should only accept amendments that do not reduce the “bite” of an ETS.
[If people were overall happy to stick with Rudd but dissatisfied over his response to asylum seekers and were unhappy with Turnbull’s response compared to what Howard’s response would have been – then all those numbers would fit with what the reporter is saying.]
This is drawing a very long bow.
What you leave out is where these figures start and finish.
[bob, Rudd’s PPM went down 2% and Turnbull up 1%. To quote you “margin of error mean anything to you?”]
Perfectly consistent for if on the asylum seeker issue people aren’t particularly happy with either response.
Look at the satisfaction ratings which are independent of versing the alternative PM. Outside of MoE.
Grasping at straws bob.
To quote Shana
[The latest Newspoll survey contains not one good number, no solace and little hope for the man who has wanted to be leader for so long and who has been so keen to make leadership changes in the last few years.]
At least I know where I stand with Generic Person!
Bob, I’m confused, you claim to be a Green or a progressive, and yet you spend most of your time here bagging Rudd & pushing a conservative agenda.
How low can the NSW ALP go
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/money/money-matters/welcome-to-minnesota-nsw/story-fn300aev-1225788512174
“Equally embarrassing was an admission it sourced images of a city in the US state of Minnesota for use in the campaign to boast about the Government’s infrastructure investment – in NSW. ”
They could not find any government infrastructure being build in NSW, so they had to find some photo from the USA.
“The six-week Government advertising blitz was launched following the June Budget as a public information advertisement promoting a $62 billion infrastructure package to create 160,000 jobs. Mr Rees was later forced to admit the jobs were Australia wide, not in NSW alone.”
and trying to claim credit for things they did not do
This government is just incompetant and Rees is a lying rodent
lying rodent – That was Howard.
[when you read it with a sam kekovic voice, it is almost acceptable.
where does ltd news draw the line?
Gf, did you scroll to the bottom to see who wrote it?]
Don,
thats why I said flippantly “with a sam kekovic voice”.
As regards the article I posted this last night on ltd news.
[Shame rupert shame. I would expect this article to appear in the national front, not the national newspaper]
75# Really who cares. So some advertising hack sourced an image from Minnesota. Yawn.
[Bob, I’m confused, you claim to be a Green or a progressive, and yet you spend most of your time here bagging Rudd & pushing a conservative agenda.]
Sorry, where have I pushed a conservative agenda? Please, quote me. I’d love to hear where i’ve been conservative.
Hamish Coffee,
It is NSW government advertising, approved by the premier department. The ad says they are building infrastructure in NSW, and their example of building infrastructure is in …. Minnesota, unless we have annexed Minnesota from the American, Minnesota is not part of NSW
Garry Bruce
That is my point, you call Howard that Lying rodent … what does that make Rees, the lying incompetant rodent?
[The other disastrous figure is for the Liberals only achieving 30%. Next stop 20s?]
GG
Then we can call the fibs the Pareto Party
🙂
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
I back up bob here. He is not a consevative and has never indicated that he is.
Bob’s problem is that he wants to “put those “Labor Hacks” back in their place all of the time. If some of us say black is black bob wants to try and convince us it is white.
I don’t excuse the NSW Labor government. They’ll lose the next election dovif so this type of stuff doesn’t bother me one way or the other. You don’t really have long to wait before you get yourself an incompetent Liberal government.
Andrew:
[So Fran Kelly is not too worried about the 59/41 since 4% are less satisfied with Rudd. Whatever proves your point dear]
The problem for Fran is that the 4% might be comprised, in part, of a significant proportion of people who are unhappy with harshness Rudd’s approach on the refugee issue.
I guess she doesn’t care as long as “the honeymoon” ends.
With these numbers if we lived in a Democracy the Greens would have 1/3 of the parliamentarians/funding/media coverage of the COALition and twice the amount of the Nits.
Seriously, the numbers across a number of polls now suggest that the Greens have finally got a base of 10% in HOR votes, add the usual 1-1.5% for the Senate and respective upper house numbers and they can expect to have the balance of power in Vic, NSW, SA, WA, and the Senate with the next election cycles, with the ALP standing betweeen them and the COALition the chances of the right getting any parliament other than the NSW debacle is remote. One of the problems that the right media face is that they have fallen for their own rethoric. Totally out of touch. Their puppets are out, out for the count. 3-4 terms for Rudd with no end in sight, Brumby in Vic is showing that a government that can look competant and not allow the developers in the front door can rewrite the cycle theory.
[Latest opinion Poll shows mixed reviews for Malcolm Turnbull]
From Skynews ticker. Shh don’t mention the numbers 😉
Gee Vera what do they say are the “good numbers” for Turnbull”? This I gotta see.
gary, they start by saying he won an internal party room battle, that is the only positive I can see.
The rest of it tells us that voters are still unimpressed with his performance and labor would win in a landslide.
Still don’t care. Sydney is nicer than Minnesota in any case.
[bob, Rudd’s PPM went down 2% and Turnbull up 1%. To quote you “margin of error mean anything to you?”]
But since Labor’s 2PP went up slightly we at least know that Rudd’s PPM didn’t go down because this poll happened to pick out more coalition voters than the last one. If a different group had been polled and the 2PP had gone down one point instead of up (due only to MOE variation) then Rudd’s PPM would probably have gone down a little more.
So Turnball’s popularity is at a staggeringly high……19%, and Sky News is crowing about this?
And no surprise that Newspoll barely rated a mention on right wing commercial talkback radio in Sydney.
[Bob, I’m confused, you claim to be a Green or a progressive, and yet you spend most of your time here bagging Rudd & pushing a conservative agenda.]
Bob doesn’t push a conservative agenda, he pushes an anti-Labor aganda. He’ll use any argument or any source, left, right or centre, so long as it’s anti-Labor.
Do you think Barnaby is crazy?
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/if-you-think-im-crazy-have-a-look-at-the-ets/?from=news.com.au
[Do you think Barnaby is crazy?]
What’s wrong with a banjo loving,barnyard hugging,moonshine drinking,climate change denying simpleton.
he is just a reflection of his support base.
OK, sorry that I incorrectly labelled Bob as a right winger.
I just wondered why he’s always trying to dispute poll findings that are favourable to Rudd.
[Do you think Barnaby is crazy?]
Yes, but he’s the de facto leader of the Nats, Truss is a useless figurehead.
The Nats will be extinct in 10-20 years, as their support base dies out, and the regional areas become even more urbanised.
9 morning news says Rudd is under pressure over asylum seekers and the opposition will be hoping to use it to their advantage! The reporter did at least admit that there is a big margain to make up.
They had Brandis saying there was a secret report warning the govt, also had a Stone rant and that dope Hanson-Young saying the boat that has taken aboard the 78 AS is out in the middle of the ocean sailing round and round in circles.
This poll must be such a slap in the face for 9 given their “special news reports” all week about the evil dole bludging asylum seekers and how Australia is overflowing with them because of Rudd and they are costing hard working Assies a fortune.
92 – Bob has said many times he wants a Labor government over a Liberal one and wouldn’t vote Liberal in a fit. So I’d refine it a bit more. Bob has been burnt here by Labor sympathisers and makes it his life’s work to “pay the PB Labor hacks back”. If he can use any bit of info to prove them wrong he will. “It’s the “I’ll get you Butler” (Blakey in “On the Buses”) syndrome.
[9 morning news says Rudd is under pressure over asylum seekers and the opposition will be hoping to use it to their advantage!]
Did he actually link this Newspoll with this statement Vera?
Yep, right at the end when he said there was a big gap to make up going by latest poll 59/41.