Wherein the Poll Bludger celebrates the grand final weekend by doing what it always does. No Morgan poll this week, but they do inform us that St Kilda supporters are slightly less likely to practise yoga than normal people. Not only but also:
• Today’s the big day for the Liberal Party’s preselection in Bradfield. Read and comment all about it at the dedicated post, where you will find a complete and updated form guide to all 17 candidates.
• More by-election action thanks to former WA Premier Alan Carpenter’s retirement announcement, which will shortly produce a vacancy in his safe Labor seat of Willagee. Dedicated post immediately below.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Liberal MP Louise Markus, whose seat of Greenway has been made all but unwinnable by the redistribution, has nominated for preselection in the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, where Labor’s margin has been cut from 7.0 per cent to 0.1 per cent and sitting member Bob Debus is planning to retire. Kerry Bartlett, whom Debus defeated at the 2007 election, has not nominated.
• Imre Salusinszky also reports that an obstacle to Dickson MP Peter Dutton’s transfer to the safe Liberal Gold Coast seat of McPherson has been removed with the announcement by Richard Stuckey, local doctor and husband of state Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey, that he has withdrawn from the preselection race. Presumably still in the field are Karen Andrews, chair of the party’s federal divisional council and an ally of outgoing member Margaret May, and Michael Hart, who unsuccessfully contested the state seat of Burleigh at the last two state elections.
• Jeff Whalley of The Geelong Advertiser reports that the Liberal preselection for the state seat of South Barwon will be a contest between Andrew Katos, who represents Deakin ward on Greater Geelong City Council, and Tony Le Deux, who “has his own catering firm and in the past managed the legendary Melbourne food shop The Essential Ingredient”. Despite earlier reports, former Surf Coast Shire Council councillor Ron Humphrey has emerged as a non-starter. Whalley reports the candidates are respectively backed by factions associated with Stewart McArthur, former federal member for Corangamite, and the seat’s preselected candidate for the next election, Sarah Henderson. The seat is held for Labor by former Geelong mayor Michael Crutchfield on a margin of 2.3 per cent.
• Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Jeff Kennett has provided former Hawthorn AFL player Stephen Lawrence with a reference in support of his apparent bid for Kennett’s old seat of Burwood, currently held by Labor’s Bob Stensholt on a margin of 3.7 per cent. Also identified as candidates are David Solly, IT manager and one-time Nationals member, and Graham Watt, “owner of a thriving carpet cleaning business”. Landeryou notes that demographics and a large Chinese community are producing a long-term shift to Labor in the seat.
• The Camden Advertiser reports Camden mayor Chris Patterson rejects rumours he will run against federal MP Pat Farmer for Liberal preselection in Macarthur. It is expected that Patterson will run for the state seat of Camden, held by Labor’s Geoff Corrigan on a margin of 3.9 per cent.
• The Australian Women’s Weekly’s Belinda Neal glamour photo shoot hits the news stands Monday.
[Mr Green says pretty much exactly that – if they get a trigger, he says they can call a double dissolution up to early October 2010.]
It would be hard to justify a DD then since an election is due then anyway. They can’t keep a trigger in their pocket for a year and then claim urgency for a DD, so it would need to be a more recent trigger. A normal half-Senate election would be attractive for the government because of the number of coalition Senators in that half, so they’d only go for a DD if they need the joint sitting or they can’t endure Fielding any longer.
Youre right imacca, and the MSM have largely get the opposition get away with criticising the stimulus, without indicating what would have happened to growth and unemployment had their alternative strategy been implemented?? Has anyone done modelling on it??
[If the Libs had been in power they would have done too little too late and we would be in a much worse situation now with unemployment and with the hit that would have given to confidence any recovery would be much slower.]
It would’ve been very hard for the Libs to propose a stimulus package of any decent size after spending the previous 12 years saying how bad deficits and debt are.
Socrates, can you comment on why it was that none of the senior Finnish commanders were actually Finns? Mannerheim, Oqvist, Heinrichs, the one in the far north whose name I forget – not a Finnish name among them. Mannerheim could barely speak Finnish.
[I believe it was a Liberal frontbencher who gave Vanstone the nickname “Second Amendment”. Who can guess why?]
You’ve asked this before. Something about bare arms?
Andrew
All Labor have to do is show a graph of Australian interest rates against the OECED average for the last few years to ram the message home. When rates were high under Keating they were high worldwide. But this time, under Howard, when rates went high in 2007 they were NOT so high in the rest of the world. It was a home grown problem, due to bad policy.
I suppose now the Liberals can argue that our interest rates are amoung the highest in the OECD. But that is only because our economy isn’t in ruins, and we don’t have to threaten negative interest rates to make banks loaan to businesses. I can’t see that being a story Turnbull or Hockey would like to dwell on for very long.
[It would be hard to justify a DD then since an election is due then anyway. ]
A regular election doesn’t need to be held until early 2011. I think a late Double Dissolution would be an excellent option.
The only person Rudd would need to convince on the need for a D.D. is Quentin Bryce.
[They can’t keep a trigger in their pocket for a year and then claim urgency for a DD, so it would need to be a more recent trigger.]
There is no constitutional test of “urgency”. All Rudd needs to show is that the parliament has obstructed bills with the same effect twice with a 3 month gap in between. That is all the constitution says, there is no “urgency” clause.
[A normal half-Senate election would be attractive for the government because of the number of coalition Senators in that half, so they’d only go for a DD if they need the joint sitting or they can’t endure Fielding any longer.]
But with a D.D. you (almost certainly) get rid of Fielding as soon as the new parliament sits!
Glen Stevens is performing magnificently at the hearing. The only thingh has given to the Libs is a headache. I just can’t wait to hear Sloppy Joe’s take on it.
[But with a D.D. you (almost certainly) get rid of Fielding as soon as the new parliament sits!]
Who’s to say a DD wouldn’t produce another Fielding?
At the last two South Australian state elections, Family First have won a spot in the Legislative Council. That’s with a quota slightly higher than for a DD election. (SALC elects 11 at at time; DD 12.)
Adam
All the others you mention were Finns, but not all Finns have purely Finnish sounding names. It is a function of history, remembering that the Russians were hated but Finland was formerly a Swedish duchy and was predominantly Lutheran before mostly “converting” to atheism in the 20th century. About 10% of the Finnish population speak Swedish, and maybe 1/3 have Swedish sounding names, a small % German sounding, and the rest Finnish. My great grandfather’s name was Swedish (Wallenius). My grandfather deliberately kept his maternal (Finnish sounding) family name, around the time of Finland becoming independant. His first names were Karlo (Finnish) Siegfried (Lutheran link).
I thought Antony did a previous post that highlighted Fielding’s chances of relection were almost doubled under a DD?? The smaller quotas give the smaller parties and independants a much better chance of getting over the line in a DD compared to a half senate election, it being very hard for a major party to get 4 out of 6 seats.
Stand by – Fieldings asking Stevens the questions now.
[It would be hard to justify a DD then since an election is due then anyway.]
I think most people would not care (and a large minority, not even know) if it were a half Senate, or DD election. As Antony himself commented:
[COMMENT: If the election were held in September, the electorate would hardly care whether the election was a normal house and half-Senate election, or a double dissolution. It makes no difference to how you fill in the ballot paper. It might make the Senate ballot paper slightly bigger, that’s all.]
[That is all the constitution says, there is no “urgency” clause.]
Of course. Obviously I’m talking about justifying a DD publicly. They’d still be cutting the terms of half the Senate by more than half and they’d still be stuck with a short second term. If it’s likely that they only have to deal with the Greens from July 2011 then why bother unless there’s something urgent?
“[so they’d only go for a DD if they need the joint sitting or they can’t endure Fielding any longer.]”
[But with a D.D. you (almost certainly) get rid of Fielding as soon as the new parliament sits!]
Yes, that’s what I said. Otherwise he gets to stay till June 2011.
Kurt Wallenius was the name of the general in the far north I couldn’t remember. Are you related to him? Mannerheim had him cashiered for drunkeness I think 🙂
Meanwhile, in Daily Terror World, not a mention of the Reserve Bank:
[How Jarryd got off the hook
AS Sydney celebrates that Jarryd Hayne has escaped suspension, the NRL’s reasons for allowing the Eels’ star to play in Sunday’s grand final are revealed.
Smash catapults baby on to busy highway
1:50PM A BABY girl remains fighting for life after being thrown into the middle of a busy motorway when the car she was in rolled up to four times in a horror crash.
Give me your puppy or I’ll shoot
9:44AM THIS is the tiny chihuahua pup at the centre of a bizarre dog-nap attempt in which a woman allegedly posed as a buyer – before pulling a gun on the owners.
* Gallery: Dogs that captured world’s heart
Woman in dock over ‘molested’ boy, 12, Charged
A NURSE’S aide charged with molesting a primary aged schoolboy will face court next month. The woman, 40, has now been sacked from her job.
Is newborn beast half-man, half-goat? ]
Adam
No but I wish I was 🙂 My family came from Rauma,which is in the south east coast, near Turkku. The Finnish army was mobilised on provincial lines and Rauma is in Satakunta so my relatives would have fought in 6th Division, probably at Summa on the Karelina Isthmus.
No 716
Hayne’s favourable outcome in the NRL judiciary is certainly big news. Means we have a contest next Sunday, not a whitewash.
And did you know that Mannerheim wasn’t really a Marshal? There was no such rank in the Finnish Army, and Mannerheim wasn’t even officially a member of the army when the war started. It was just a name that people started calling him, and eventually the government gave him a Marshal’s baton to go with the title. He was a very strange figure. He told the government to accept Stalin’s terms in 1939, because the army wouldn’t be able to hold out for a week against Russians. But once the war started, he fought with great tenacity, all the while telling the government that collapse was imminent and they should make peace while they could. He loathed Hitler and the Nazis, but made an alliance with them in 1941 to get Finland’s territory back. Then in 1944, after Bagration when it became obvious that Germany was losing, he coolly double-crossed Hitler and made peace with Stalin, on essentially the same terms as in 1940. Stalin said that only reason he didn’t annex Finland outright was his respect for Mannerheim, the former Czarist officer who had crushed the Finnish Reds in 1919.
[Hitler’s skull is female]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26135406-5006301,00.html
Adam
Yes I have read a great book on Mannerheim. He is an amazing figure, with an extraordinary history. As one of the most promising young officers in the former Russian Imperial Army he was a lieutenant in the Guard Cavalry regiment. You can see him standing behind the Tsar in photos of Nicholas II’s corronation, holding a sabre. Later he led a diplomatic mission to China, riding from Moscow to Beijing on horseback, crossing the Urals, Tien Shan mountains and Gobi Desert.
Only twelve comments so far published on Milne’s piece re Dutton.
The greater majority, in fact virtually all comments are regular Liberal supporters. All are giving it to Milne in spades.
I would love to see all the Labor supporting comments that they seem to be vetting and not publishing. They would be real doozies I would think!!!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26132865-7583,00.html
No-one has believed that skull is Hitler’s for at least 20 years. The Soviets cremated the remains of Hitler, Braun and the Goebbels family and dumped them in the Elbe in 1970, precisely because they didn’t want relics like that hanging around. This is all in Vinogradov, “Hitler’s Death,” based on the Soviet archives and published about 15 years ago.
For all interested bludgers:
“The ALP is on track to win 20 seats”
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=6511
from Mr Greens latest:
“That’s because an accident of timing in 2007 means that the government has the option of calling a double dissolution election for as late as 16 October 2010.”
Whoopeee! That’s my birthday! Having the Coalition get around then will make getting older sooooooooo much more bearable!
Socrates & Herr Doktor, TQ for your dissertations. I didnt realise i was that good and accomplished so much. Must try harder, cheers.
725: Should have been:
Having the Coalition get A MASSIVE KICKING around then will make getting older sooooooooo much more bearable!
Great news for all Pollbludgers. I am going to be off the net for two weeks.
Heading off right now to Adelaide to annoy Diogenes and any other PB’ers from Adelaide that might wish to catch up with me while in town.
I don’t think Dio would mind passing on my contact details to any interested PB’ers.
Cheers everyone, be kind to each other!! 🙂
Scorpio
[ didnt realise i was that good ]
The connection between Finns and fins is purely homophonic and not in any way semantic. In any case cetaceans don’t have fins, because they’re not fish. They have flippers. If you were half as smart as us hominids you’d know this.
No 728
Do they not have internet-connected computers in Adelaide?
We Victorians have stolen all their water so they can’t operate the boilers to run their steam-turbine computers, it seems.
GP, no comment on Newspoll, or Glen Stevens?
Finns 726
Yes I should have known you’d want the credit for the Winter War! Smoked fish is very popular in Finland, and the dolphin is a protected species too, for now.
No 732
Nothing new on either front.
LOL! How predictable. The Liberals misrepresent Steven’s comments by saying that he thinks the stimulus should be wound back:
[THE Coalition has seized on Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens’ evidence to a parliamentary committee today to argue Kevin Rudd must “put the brakes on” further stimulus spending or risk interest rate rises.
In an interview with The Australian Online, Opposition finance spokesman Helen Coonan said it was clear Mr Stevens was warning there was a trade-off between stimulus designed to protect the economy from the global financial turndown and the risk it would increase pressure on interest rates.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26135495-601,00.html
It seems Helen Coonan has figured out the link between fiscal and monetary policy. Shame she missed it when she was in Govt.
Could Howard’s 10 interest rate rises have had anything to do with loose fiscal policy Helen?
[If you were half as smart as us hominids you’d know this.]
Herr doktor, since you have been so nice to the Finns. i will forgive you for your jealousy.
ShowsOn, they have SEIZED on the comments. Thats right, those same comments that support the government’s intervention. These guys are absolutely hopeless- how did they ever run the government??
This is the section of the offensive/offending article:
In his evidence, Mr Stevens praised the Rudd Government’s economic policies, arguing the actions had “materially” helped the economy.
But he also said the Government’s fiscal stimulus and the central bank’s monetary policy must be adjusted back to “more normal settings”.
“In due course, both fiscal and monetary support will need to be unwound as private demand increases,” he said.
“In the case of monetary policy, the bank has already signalled that interest rates can be expected, at some point, to move off their currently unusually low levels, as recovery proceeds.”
he is not criticisng the government at all, and the unwinding he talks about is built into the stimulus already.
sorry, and a :kiss: for Herr Doktor.
One point PBers need to keep in mind re election timing is that the Vic State election is gazetted for the last Saturday of November next year. Which would mean that Rudd would have to call for the Fed election for no later than the third Saturday in October.
If he holds off till 2011 it needs to be done and dusted by early Feb to avoid clashing with the NSW election in March.
If the Libs reject the ETS then Rudd will have a trigger for a DD. I suspect that calling a DD will depend on the political tide at that time.
Labor’s support for social justice policies continues to converge with the Liberals. Equal and fair distribution of income and wealth, and the opportunity to take part in our society continues to be eroded. A growing underclass continues to be created.
The Labor Party – No votes in the homeless, no votes in the unemployed, no votes in the poor.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/shrinking-safety-net-for-jobless-20090927-g7mz.html
[THE Government’s failure to boost unemployment benefits when it rolled out its pension reform program last week flags a new philosophical approach to social justice issues. It is part of a strategic response to welfare dependence that is set to transform our society.
Governments have sought to avoid the political outcry of actually cutting benefits. Instead, they have failed to adjust them to keep pace with the cost of living, and to let inflation erode them over time.
The cumulative effect has been that the dole is now about $100 a week less than the single aged pension. As unemployment benefits act as a floor for the minium wage, it will also result in the minimum wage being allowed to fall over time.
In taking this approach, Kevin Rudd is simply continuing a Howard government strategy. Nonetheless, it is unfortunate this is being done by stealth. It is one of those nation-defining policies that we should have public debates about.]
From Mr Greens Blog on a DD and the timing:
“A September election would avoid a clash with both state elections. The Rudd government can also plausibly argue that a September election is not an early election, coming just two months before the third anniversary of the government’s election to office.
Above all, a September election gives the government the option of choosing between a normal House and Half-Senate election, or the option of a new broom in the Senate by calling a double dissolution.”
According to him there is a window of between 1st of July and 10th of August 2010 where the Govt could call a DD (if they have a trigger). Depending on how long they want to make the campaign, or to give Turnbull / Bishop chances to “shine”:) that could give them the September election.
So, by April / May 2010 the Libs would almost have to be iready for full campaign mode wouldn’t they? But then, the election may not be till Feb 2011? Would they have the resources and stamina to keep it up that long??
No 742
Load of crap Pegasus.
What does “fair distribution of wealth” actually mean? In your fantasy world it means I go to work, whilst you sit on your arse at home on the dole. Give me a break. You lefties are pathetic.
German election results from DW-TV’s “The Journal”:
Votes:
Seats:
They said that the FDP leader Westerwelle is most likely to become vice chancellor and the foreign affairs secretary.
I would’ve thought he would prefer an economics portfolio? Is this a sign that Merkel won’t give up the CDU’s economic policies?
Curiously they said it was the worst result for the CDU / CSU since 1949.
I see that The Australian has come in for mention again. Note the following from the weekend:
“Award net traps office workers” (print title)
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26126929-601,00.html
When I read the article, I thought the headline should have been “Award net protects office workers”, but that’s just me.
To be fair, I must say that The Australian has published a letter from me today in response to its “What’s Left” series:
“Don’t forget fraternity”
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/dont_forget_fraternity
I think the series is worth reading, though you will find some of the responses to those put on blogs quite strange – along the lines of “Hitler was left-winger because the Nazis had ‘socialist’ in their name” strange.
Rudd can call a DD if he likes, or just run with the normal half senate election, I don’t think it matters electorally ie in the House of Reps. I won’t even pretend to try to predict the senate.
However, if he calls an early election, DD or normal, he will pay for it in the House of Reps. Voters do not like being taken for mugs.
As I have noted earlier, the ALP is set to win in 2010 in a walk. But if he goes early, all bets are off. Anything, and I mean anything, could happen.
Hawke learnt that in 1984. You think Turnbull looks hapless, Peacock was worse, much worse, but he still did Hawke a lot of damage, and Hawke never regained his “apolitical” appeal. Rudd would be very stupid to go any earlier than scheduled.
And Rudd’s not stupid, that’s why there’ll be no early election.
Pegasus
Are you advocating that Newstart should be the same as a pension?
If the election result was based on just the seats decided by FPTP.
CDU/CSU = 218
SDP = 64
FDP = 0
The Left = 16
Greens = 1
out of 300 seats the Right would be laughing but nooo stupid PP representation gives the SPD double their seats and the Greens and Left Party a 100 seats almost combined.
Glen: Looking forward to May 2010 and the thorough electoral decimation of the British Labor Party?