One of many days in September

Wherein the Poll Bludger celebrates the grand final weekend by doing what it always does. No Morgan poll this week, but they do inform us that St Kilda supporters are slightly less likely to practise yoga than normal people. Not only but also:

• Today’s the big day for the Liberal Party’s preselection in Bradfield. Read and comment all about it at the dedicated post, where you will find a complete and updated form guide to all 17 candidates.

• More by-election action thanks to former WA Premier Alan Carpenter’s retirement announcement, which will shortly produce a vacancy in his safe Labor seat of Willagee. Dedicated post immediately below.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Liberal MP Louise Markus, whose seat of Greenway has been made all but unwinnable by the redistribution, has nominated for preselection in the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, where Labor’s margin has been cut from 7.0 per cent to 0.1 per cent and sitting member Bob Debus is planning to retire. Kerry Bartlett, whom Debus defeated at the 2007 election, has not nominated.

• Imre Salusinszky also reports that an obstacle to Dickson MP Peter Dutton’s transfer to the safe Liberal Gold Coast seat of McPherson has been removed with the announcement by Richard Stuckey, local doctor and husband of state Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey, that he has withdrawn from the preselection race. Presumably still in the field are Karen Andrews, chair of the party’s federal divisional council and an ally of outgoing member Margaret May, and Michael Hart, who unsuccessfully contested the state seat of Burleigh at the last two state elections.

• Jeff Whalley of The Geelong Advertiser reports that the Liberal preselection for the state seat of South Barwon will be a contest between Andrew Katos, who represents Deakin ward on Greater Geelong City Council, and Tony Le Deux, who “has his own catering firm and in the past managed the legendary Melbourne food shop The Essential Ingredient”. Despite earlier reports, former Surf Coast Shire Council councillor Ron Humphrey has emerged as a non-starter. Whalley reports the candidates are respectively backed by factions associated with Stewart McArthur, former federal member for Corangamite, and the seat’s preselected candidate for the next election, Sarah Henderson. The seat is held for Labor by former Geelong mayor Michael Crutchfield on a margin of 2.3 per cent.

• Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Jeff Kennett has provided former Hawthorn AFL player Stephen Lawrence with a reference in support of his apparent bid for Kennett’s old seat of Burwood, currently held by Labor’s Bob Stensholt on a margin of 3.7 per cent. Also identified as candidates are David Solly, IT manager and one-time Nationals member, and Graham Watt, “owner of a thriving carpet cleaning business”. Landeryou notes that demographics and a large Chinese community are producing a long-term shift to Labor in the seat.

• The Camden Advertiser reports Camden mayor Chris Patterson rejects rumours he will run against federal MP Pat Farmer for Liberal preselection in Macarthur. It is expected that Patterson will run for the state seat of Camden, held by Labor’s Geoff Corrigan on a margin of 3.9 per cent.

• The Australian Women’s Weekly’s Belinda Neal glamour photo shoot hits the news stands Monday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

816 comments on “One of many days in September”

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  1. If anything evan14 it will be the same result as Germany.

    The Tories have sooo much ground to make up but the Labour Party voters just wont turn up here the SPD in Germany got 10m less votes than 1998 when they came to power. I suspect Cameron will win but i am biased.

    At least I can enjoy watching Tories be successful overseas.

    I dont think ill be enjoying 2010 in Australia/Victoria though oh dear.

  2. No 748

    That’s exactly what he’s advocating, which means society pays for bludgers to sit at home while regular people bust their backsides off at work to make ends meet. That is the fundamental social injustice that you won’t ever hear Lindy Edwards or Pegasus admit.

  3. [That’s exactly what he’s advocating, which means society pays for bludgers to sit at home while regular people bust their backsides off at work to make ends meet.]
    What? The Howard government introduced Family Tax Benefit Part B which means single mothers can stay home and effectively receive a payment from families that have two working parents!

    The Liberals are pros at encouraging single mothers to stay home.

  5. [Sloppy Joe has been quiet today – I wonder why?]
    He still can’t get over the fact he told a whole group of reporters that the coalition wants the unemployment rate to be higher.

  6. [What? The Howard government introduced Family Tax Benefit Part B which means single mothers can stay home and effectively receive a payment from families that have two working parents!]
    The Howard government introduced Family Tax Benefit Part B for mothers to stay at home and effectively receive a payment from families that have two working parents. The fact that some of those mothers were single was an accidental side-effect of the policy. I’ll bet if Howard had worked out a way to give it to partnered mothers and not single mothers he would have done so. And he did eventually get at single mothers, by cutting of their parenting payment the minute their youngest child turned 6. Partnered mothers, of course, could stay at home as long as they wished (or could afford).

  7. William i think you should ban the term ‘sloppy joe’ it is very much in the same vain as
    ‘krudd’ which you have banned in the past.

    I think if it is unparliamentary in the House then it should be here on pollbludger.

  10. I agree with that Glen, but it did have some general currency there and was OK for a while. The term “krudd” has never been used there.

  15. Why is it ok for those on the left to use childish names for Coalition MPs but it is not ok for those on the right to use childish names for Labour MPs it is either no rules whatsoever or ALL childish name calling of MPs on both sides should be banned.

    We really should be above all this but many left of centre posters persist with childish name calling of Mr Hockey which however you slice is bullying.

  18. Zombie

    On this subject on Agenda this evening Graeme Morris was cutting crook that it isn’t fair for the government to halve the payment. But the opthalmologists have effectlively doubled their hourly rate.

  20. Joe Hockey did make a couple of boo boos when he started interpreting graphs upside down and forgetting that GDP grows when the economy grows.

    Kinda sloppy in my book. 😉

  23. Long-term unemployed are an underclass in our society. In difficult economic times anyone can lose their job or be unable to secure their first job. Every unemployed person and their dependants deserve to be able to live their lives with dignity. This includes being provided with enough financial support to feed themselves and to maintain a roof over their heads.

    The Australia Institute’s Reading Between the Lines 16, Equity edition
    https://www.tai.org.au/index.php?q=node%2F19&act=display&type=3&pubid=675
    Could you live on $228 a week? : how Australia compares with the rest of the world
    [The Australia Institute has recommended that the unemployment benefit be increased in line with community standards, which basically means providing for the unemployed as we do our pensioners and disabled. Another way of approaching this issue is to consider arrangements in other countries and how their unemployment benefits compare with their wages.

    In Australia, when individuals on average weekly earnings lose their jobs and wind up on the dole, they will find that they replace only 24 per cent of their after-tax income. A worker on an average wage moves from an income of $1,196 a week to an NSA of $228 a week. A couple will receive $412 a week, but only if neither partner is working.

    An international study (using a different definition of the average wage) suggests that single people in Australia who go on unemployment benefits replace 31 per cent of their income.

    Of the 29 OECD countries in the study, none had a lower replacement rate for singles….Just to keep pace with the average of the other 28 countries, Australia would require an increase in the dole of more than 80 per cent.

    Thankfully, Australia no longer has the worst replacement rate when children are involved. For example, an Australian lone parent on average weekly earnings would replace 52 per cent of their income if they had to rely on unemployment benefits…But the Australian replacement rate falls behind all of the other countries.

    National averages in Australia can conceal a good deal. Someone on the retail-industry-average wage who loses their job will find that the dole replaces 31 per cent of their after-tax earnings. But someone in the mining industry on average earning s will replace only 15 per cent of their wage when they go on the dole.
    ….Australia’s dole is woefully inadequate when it comes to making up for the income that people used to earn before they lost their jobs.]

  24. [Rudd’s stimulus gets RBA tick of approval, by Bernard Keane, Crikey – So, which bright spark in the Coalition thought it was a good idea to support Bob Brown’s inquiry into the Government’s stimulus packages?

    At best, the Coalition was only ever going to be able to rope in a handful of conservative economists to declare either that the stimulus needed to be immediately withdrawn, or should never have even been implemented in the first place, a position that the Coalition itself doesn’t hold………..

    Instead, they had Glenn Stevens this morning, offering about as strong an endorsement of the Government’s stimulus strategy as you’re likely to get from the RBA head.]

    Very very, sloppy. I think this is what you’d call a political own gooooooooooooal. Pele would be pleased.

  25. An 80% increase in NSA would equate to $410.40 per week. The minimum wage is $543.78 per week. Subtract transport costs – why go to work?

  26. BK
    I didn’t see that on the version I looked at. There were questions about Beazley’s and Nelson’s appointments and the marital status of respondents and one on respondents employment for the last 12 months but nothing about the health cover rebate. Perhaps I looked at the wrong one.

  27. [I think Sloppy Joe should be banned because it’s incredibly lame.]

    Yeah, it’s done it’s dash, but it’s pretty soft.

    “KRudd” on the other hand always struck me as denoting hatred and bile on the part of the writer.

  28. I see Truss thinks winning the rural seats is the way to go for the coalition…

    and Mitch Fifeld displays his complete ignorance on things polling:
    [And some Liberals agree with him. Liberal Senator Mitch Fifield arguing Newspoll showed the Rudd Government “does not have a lock” on the next federal election.

    “There’s a clear message in the polls for those who say the next election isn’t winnable for the coalition,” he told Sky News on Monday. ]

    Yep Mitch… the ALP wins 101 seats. That’s a winning strategy right there.
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26135987-601,00.html

  29. Thanks, Enjaybee @ 771 for the Essential result. Had been waiting for that, just out of interest, of course, nothing to do with poll dependency. No, really.

  30. Well, even Uhlmann couldn’t spin Stevens pronouncements as anything other than a plus for the government. Who’d a thunk it.

  31. [Well, even Uhlmann couldn’t spin Stevens pronouncements as anything other than a plus for the government. Who’d a thunk it.]

    That’s why there still is The Oz:

    [THE Coalition has seized on Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens’ evidence to a parliamentary committee today to argue Kevin Rudd must “put the brakes on” further stimulus spending or risk interest rate rises.]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26135495-2702,00.html

    Samantha Maiden earns her pay transcribing a Liberal Party media release…. Absolutely pathetic journalism.

  32. I just a minute ago got NewsPolled. Two minutes on politics and 15 mins on other stuff. Several of the non-political questions were unable to be properly answered with the allowable responses.

  34. Grog, The Political Sword has an interesting piece on this topic. Samantha Maiden is just terrific, ain’t she? Must say I was disappointed by the latest offering by Georg M.

  35. We watched Barnaby asking questions of Glenn Stevens while we had dinner.

    Did anyone else get the impression that Stevens thought come of Joyce’s questions a trifle bizarre? I’m not sure that Barnaby even knows what Barnaby is thinking half the time.

  36. Nick – did you get the preferred Prime Minister rating out of the EP. I only heard the approval rating which increased for Kev and for Turnbull.

  38. [Must say I was disappointed by the latest offering by Georg M.]

    Yeah it wasn’t up to his usual standard – relied too much on “perceptions”. George is best when he analyses data and facts (and at his best, he’s as good as anyone going around).

    But hey some days you just have to churn out a column.

  39. BH – I don’t think Essential do “preferred Prime Minister”, only “approval of the Prime Minister”, 66% (+6) and “approval of the Opposition Leader”, 27% (+5).

  40. [Did anyone else get the impression that Stevens thought come of Joyce’s questions a trifle bizarre]

    a triffle? you are being very generous.

    excellent summary of Stevens from The World Today:

    [ELEANOR HALL: That is the Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens talking to the Senate committee this morning.

    Steven, did he say whether maintaining the stimulus would lead to higher interest rates as has been said by the Opposition many times?

    STEPHEN LONG: Well, he was indeed questioned on this and pressed on this by the Opposition and also by Senator Steve Fielding and he had to accept that as a basic principle, as you know common sense, if there is more demand in the economy and the government stimulus is contributing to demand then that will lead to a higher level of interest rates than if the demand wasn’t there.

    But he said he questioned the assumption that lower government stimulus and lower interest rates was a good thing. Whether having a situation where the government was stimulating or doing less to stimulate the economy and that meant that interest rates were lower was a good thing.

    In other words, whether it would actually be in the broad public interest if we had interest rates low. He said he was extremely grateful and very, very pleased that interest rates hadn’t hit the very, very low levels zero per cent, half a per cent that they have in other major economies and also he was pressed about whether the government stimulus for instance would lead to asset price bubbles in housing.

    He said that low interest rates were more likely to lead to asset price bubbles in housing and other markets. So his suggestion was that you have to have both arms of policy working and higher interest rates aren’t necessarily a bad thing although it would be a long time and nowhere in any sort of near prospect that we’d get back to the interest rates we had, if you go back to early 2008 before the big cuts.

    ELEANOR HALL: I presume he was pressed on government debt?

    STEPHEN LONG: Oh, indeed he was. He was pressed on government debt and here he was even stronger that the notion that the government debt is not something that can be sustained, is a problem in Australia, is really, he didn’t use these words but he was pretty much saying that it is one that just does not stand up to any sort of scrutiny when you compare the level of debt here to overseas.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2009/s2698422.htm

  41. Well their ABC radio702’s political report at 4.30pm was introduced by the presenter saying the Opposition had claimed a win after Steven’s comments. Then a guy from The Age who was doing the report said in a sarcastic voice that Stevens had said this so called recession was nowhere near as bad as 2002 and 1996? and didn’t even come close to the great depression.
    They were practically writing the Libs script for them, that is there was no GFC really and so Labor has wasted all this stimulus money and run up debt for nothing. In other words Malcolm was right, we should have just sat on our hands and done nothing don’t you know?

  42. Essential Report, 28 September 2009, has some interesting info relating to employment.

    [11% are in a different position with the same employer and 17% are with a different employer.

    Non union members were more likely than union members to be with a different employer than they were 12 months ago (19% v 11%).

    Males were more likely than females to be in a different position but with the same employer (12% v 9%).

    People earning a lower salary compared to what they were 12 months ago were more likely to be with a different employer (49%), while people on a higher income than they were 12 months ago were more likely to be in the same position with the same employer (77%).

    20% indicated that they are on a little/much lower salary.

    Union members were more likely than non union members to indicate that compared to 12 months ago, their average salary is much/a little higher (61% union members v 41% non union members).

    People who are with the same employer as they were 12 months ago were more likely than those who are with a different employer to indicate that their salary has increased (48% same position/same employer, 52% different position/same employer v 29% different employer).

    Self employed (31%) and part-time workers (25%) were more likely to be on a little/much lower salary than they were 12 months ago.]

  44. [Very very, sloppy. I think this is what you’d call a political own gooooooooooooal. Pele would be pleased.]

    Yes. Even ABC TV News couldn’t spin it any other way than a win for the government.

    The Libs are like those lazy kids you knew at Uni, who hadn’t studied, played ping-pong at the Sports Union all day, didn’t roll up to lectures, didn’t attend tutes.

    At the end of semester they realised they were on a hiding to nothing as far as passing anything. So they gamed the syllabus and swotted up on the question no-one else wanted to answer.

    The idea behind this is that when the question came up they wouldn’t have any competition. The marker would be miffed that someone – anyone – answered “his” topic and would give them a good score… or so the theory went.

    The “Stimulus Wasn’t Needed And Has Ruined The Country” schtik is an example of the Libs, lazy, policy-free, obsessed with gaming the system, waiting for a Messiah (who’s never coming), realizing that they’re on a hiding to nothing unless they go “contrarian” and answer the question that everyone says “Yes” to (and to which the answer is “Yes”) by saying “No”.

    They get noticed. They get air-time. They win big if – and it’s a zillion-to-one chance – their topic gets up. Otherwise it’s “Could Try Harder” and a big “F” circled in red at the top of the page.

    But it isn’t going to. Their naysaying is just that: naysaying. The examiner won’t be impressed. And they’re going to fail.

    But they’re too far down the track now to do anything else but hope to stir up a bit of controversy. They’ve wasted too much time fiddling about the margins with leadership squabbles, pointless points of order, QT as life, living the Born-to-Rule fantasy and shameless assertion that they’re always right.

    Glen Stevens smacked them down hard today. Even ABC TV News couldn’t find a way to make it look good for them. There was no Joe Hockey going just, Nah!”. There was no Malcolm Turnbull lecturing the interviewer on economics. The only ones brave enough to front the cameras were Julie Bishop – a lightweight’s lightweight if ever there was one – and Helen Coonan – a nobody, even when she used to be a somebody.

    As they enter that examination hall they must know they’re looking to repeat the year. It’s an awful feeling, there’s a dread about it (I know!). But this lazy, indolent bunch of deluded fantasisers deserve every stressed-out shudder of what they’ve brought upon themselves.

    The beauty of it is that they’ll never learn.

  45. Essential Report

    Someone had to lower the tone. Bit hard to go past the question, “three qualities you consider to be most important in a partner”

    Amongst other points…

    A good lover
    Labor 17%
    Coalition 10%
    Greens 11%

    Intellectually stimulating
    Labor 14%
    Coalition 17%
    Greens 26%

    A good parent
    Labor 17%
    Coalition 12%
    Greens 4%

  46. Thanks Nick – Kev still in front by a mile.

    HSO – terrific piece by Political Sword today. He and BB have great commentary on that site. Makes one feel proud to know (sort of) them.

    Hope Scorpio has great time in SA. Take him for a ride on Popeye, Dio.

    Friend from Adelaide rang today to ask how we enjoyed the ‘airmails’ they sent this week. Said when we send more water down the Murray they’ll stop sending the ‘airmails’ (meaning dust) Cheeky sods!!

  49. [It’s terrific to read such well thought out and written pieces.]

    HSO – I agree. Every piece is exactly how I want to say it. They are put so succinctly. Piping Shrike is another one. These blokes are much better than the MSM in getting to the nitty gritty.

  50. This afternoon I had the opportunity (I almost wrote misfortune) to watch some of the questioning of the RBA Governor on A-PAC.

    I found some of the questioning to juvenile and the subject not understood and in some cases not worthy of the Senate of this country.

    In respect of those I saw here is my scorecard.

    Mr Brown score 3 – looking for an answer he did not get or understand
    Mr X score 5 – made some sense and had done some research
    Mr Joyce score 1 – was bad mannered and lacked knowledge of the subject
    Mr Fielding score 0 – more suitable for Playschool or BTN
    M/s Coonan score 3 – trying hard to get the Governor to say something he did not
    wish to say
    M/s Hurley score 7 – trying not to muddy the waters while allowing the
    Liberals/Nats/Greens to shoot themselves in the foot
    (successfully)
    Mr Cameron score 8 – Also did his research and offered the Governor a free kick
    against his critics. The Governor declined.

    Mr Stevens score 9 – kept temper under control while being spoken over,
    repeating answers to the same questions and having to
    reword questions that did not make sense.

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