The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42. Conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 1190 (smaller than usual from a poll covering two weeks), it has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46.5 per cent and the Coalition down a sharp four points to 35 per cent. The slack has been taken up by the Greens, up 3.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.
Here’s an incomplete sampling of the past week’s action. This site’s normal energy levels will resume in about a week or so.
• Monday’s weekly Essential Research survey had Labor’s two-party lead up from 58-42 to 59-41. Supplementary questions showed a spike in confidence in the economy, but a somewhat paradoxical increase in concern about employment; Joe Hockey favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 17 per cent to 13 per cent; and the Labor Party viewed more favourably than the Liberals on 11 separate measures.
• The South Australian Liberals have a new leader in Heysen MP Isobel Redmond. Redmond succeeds Waite MP Martin Hamilton-Smith, who was mortally wounded after accusing the government of doing favours for an organisation linked to the Church of Scientology using what proved to be faked emails. Hamilton-Smith called an initial spill last Friday after Mackillop MP Mitch Williams quit the shadow ministry, which was universally interpreted as an attempt to undermine Hamilton-Smith ahead of a future pitch for his job. However, Williams declined to put his name forward at the ensuing spill, at which the sole rival nominee was deputy leader and Bragg MP Vickie Chapman. After inital expectations he would comfortably survive, Hamilton-Smith emerged from the vote without the support of a party room majority: while he won the vote 11 to 10, one member had abstained. Hamilton-Smith called another spill to clear the air, but when Redmond (who had been newly elected in place of Chapman as deputy) said she would put her name forward he announced he would stand aside. The result was a three-way tussle between Redmond, Chapman and Williams, in which Redmond defeated Chapman by 13 votes to nine after Williams was excluded in the first round. Goyder MP Steven Griffiths won the vote for deputy ahead of Williams by eight votes to six (since only lower house MPs get to vote for the deputy, whereas members from both houses have a vote for the leadership).
• Antony Green crunches some electoral numbers to conclude that, contrary to widespread belief, Labor’s position in the Senate would be better if the next election were for half the chamber in the normal fashion, rather than a double dissolution.
• Against his better judgement, Peter Brent at Mumble enters the world of blogdom. He’s also written a piece on Inside Story which delivers on what I emptily promised a few weeks back, namely to review the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters report into the 2007 election.
ruawake
We may have a difference of opinion about Alan Kohler.
Alan Kohler was one of the very, very few who fessed up at the time and told the truth about what he did not knew about the GFC. He went up instantly in my estimation.
In relation to the HuGate, he has stated that he had an inexpert opinion. It is a pity that more journalists are not honest about what they do or don’t know. In this case, I believe that Hu No 1 left the G8 meeting to go back to Beijing (?not sure about that). I have read reports that incidents of civil disobedience in China run to the tens of thousands per annum. There are waves of executions of corrupt officials. There is smoke. The question (it should be exercising Australians a bit more than it appears to be) is: ‘How much fire?’
99.9% of the spivs (of whom I believe Kohler not to be one) who infest the so-called financial services industry actively contributed to the GFC, did not see it coming, did not, and do not, understand it, are back to pretending to be in the know, and are now back to their habitual parasitism with a human face.
Kohler stands out by being clear about his uncertainties.
Shows On @ 143
You should have had a warning on the label.
I was drinking a cup of black tea when I opened it. How black tea can go sour?
The Finnigans @ 120; Boerwar @ 139, Good posts.
From my rather limited knowledge of the way China now does business (but better of the way they play politics, both big & small “p”) my guess that this is a move in a high-stakes commodity-price game, with a need to regain face after the Chemalco (?sp) deal fell over.
I also trust my PM, more than any other world leader or past Australian PM, to understand exactly what is going on and why. I believe he will – using the right people and the right channels – negotiate his way around it to Mr Hu & Oz’s benefit. As many people have discovered, there are more nuances to doing business in China, that in the entire repertoire of the Beijing Chinese Opera during its entire existence.
I also assume both Bob Brown (who’s never stuck me as a fool) and MalT who, despite his impetuous nature etc etc, is an Aussie polly genuinely concerned for Mr Hu’s safety, also understands this. Whilst both may be grandstanding (probably are, at least “a bit”), both may know enough about the politics of Chinese game playing to be saying the right thing at the right time – may even have been asked to do so. At least that’s what I hope.
Boerwar @153 Some things curdle the milk; more terrible things curdle the blood; others, more ghastly than even a NZ specials effect unit can create, curdle the tea.
OzPOl Tragic @ 153
In another post somewhere I was not quite as kind to Turnbull.
My assumption is that if face is involved, then making intemperate loud shouts at the beginning of what will obviously be a lengthy process is not helpful. In fact, assuming that Hu is innocent, it will make it more difficult for the Australian Government to extract him from his predicament.
Assuming this analysis is more or less correct (there will be many other facets),
Either: Turnbull does not understand this and has demonstrated yet again that he is unfit to be PM
Or: Turnbull does understand this and has demonstrated that he is willing to sacrifice Hu on the altar of Turnbull’s ambition.
If it is more than just face and has to do with a major power struggle within China, then both comments still apply, but more seriously. I imagine, from reading between the lines, that HuGate is also more than a little bit about the stresses between Beijing and Shanghai. These stresses make Sydney V Melbourne look like kindergarden stuff.
Whatever, Hu’s luck has run out. Wrong place, wrong time, big time.
Rudd on 10 news was giving it to a reporter (don’t know who) at his press conference. It was to do with reporting that Rudd was saying one thing in public and another in private re CC progress, mind you the supposedly private talk they showed was out in the middle of everyone with cameras on him LOL and he was speaking clearly so you could hear every word he said, private my arse!
Anyway Rudd more or less said if they wanted to print BS go right ahead, he supposed it might make good headlines.
Love it 🙂 Rudd was looking super confident and seemed to really enjoy putting the media in their place.
vera
It is an interesting and refreshing approach.
The difficulty for Rudd may come if he stuffs up big time. He will have created somewhat of a double bind for himself.
Rudd has nothing to lose with the press. Hell, they’re getting into him no matter what he does. May as well put his side of the story forcibly.
Boerwar
We disagree – that’s fine 🙂
Kohler never really says anything – he gives hints. Unless you subscribe to his newsletter.
That is OK as well, but in regard to the Hu stuff, he is making it up.
The sound bite I caught.
Rudd to media: “Go and bark up another tree”.
Boerwar, like Gary said Rudd has nothing to lose. They write inuendo or downright lies about him now so I don’t know how it could get worse.
[Boerwar, like Gary said Rudd has nothing to lose. They write inuendo or downright lies about him now so I don’t know how it could get worse.]
It seems the MSM don’t like leaders who call a spade a digging stick and they will do their darndest to undermine them – Alan Carpenter in WA, for all his faults was one of those who said it straight, and the local Meeja hated it.
ruawake
It is interesting testament to the nature of authoritarian governments that the lack of transparency sort of forces speculation. The article referred to by Finns @ 120 is (agreeing with OzPol Tragic) an excellent article.
The fact in the article that tends to support Kohler’s view is that Chinalco has been willing to come out publicly and refute a major state security organ.
I have been watching for some time to see how Chou En Lai’s deal would unfold. Essentially, the deal was, ‘You guys go out, do business and get rich, and let the Party do the politics.’
I always thought that it was a one generation only deal, for the simple reason that the second generation, wealthy, would want to play politics as well a business. I suspect, but do not know, that Chinalco’s public statements may therefore be much more than a minor public spat about ‘the facts’.
vera and Frank
I was not disagreeing with the approach which I described as ‘interesting’ and ‘refreshing’.
I was making the observation that if he mucks up he will have created a double bind for himself. He will have to agree that he has mucked up AND he will have to acknowledge that the media was right in publicising the stuff up.
The implication is that he will have to be on the front foot to fully explain stuff ups before the media can get to them.
150
If Calwell had won in `61 then maybe our currency would have a different name. Would we have metricated earlier?
[The implication is that he will have to be on the front foot to fully explain stuff ups before the media can get to them.]
Actually any good politician would do that. I believe Rudd has done just that in the past.
81
The Greens also have quite a few local councillors. I don`t think that the Democrats ever had many.
*goes* to rinse out cup of tea with cleansing acid.
Boerwar
How about this for a scenario:
Rio Tinto stuffed up in their BHP-Billiton takeover escapade. Ended up in deep debt just as the world went ga-ga and commodity prices tanked.
They flirted with Chinalco but due to regulatory problems in multiple countries it was too hard.
They need to maximise the price they get for iron ore – so they do some “creative” stuff to get info.
Maybe China is not the “bad guy” it could be that they were screwed by a multi-national mining company. Its not as if it has never happened before. 🙁
Now the Ruskie’s have arrested over 240 Chinese in Moscow following the closure of a market.
[Police ordered the market to close on June 29 after inspectors found a series of sanitary and storage violations. The closure followed a call from Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for a crackdown on smuggling at the market after about $2 billion of “smuggled goods” were seized in a raid last September.
Russia’s state television has claimed the market’s multimillionaire owner, Telman Ismailov, laundered billions of dollars through the facility, the Moscow Times reported.]
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90883/6697540.html
Boerwar
St Kev make stuff ups! Never! 😉
OzPol @ 112
Thanks for your response 🙂
[So, currently, many Green policies on carbon pollution are C21 anti-industrialism that has now found some theories to fit its claims, and Greens are currently chucking tans to stop/ close out equally effecitve alternatives that aren’t anti-industrial; ie, they definitely want carbon-reduction to close down mining & carbon-fired power stations ASAP not natural and other scientific methods which might achieve the same reduction using other methods.]
Are you suggesting by your use of the term ‘anti-industrial’ that the Greens are advocating a society without technology? Aren’t the Greens supporting innovative, cutting-edge R&D policies and solutions that encompass a wide range of renewable energy sources as alternatives? An analysis of their policies indicates that the Greens are embracing technology and supporting industry. It’s just that they recognise that ‘business as usual’ is no longer the answer.
The following document is well worth a read, though some minor bits are out-dated:
Re-energising Australia written by Christine Milne in 2007
http://greensmps.org.au/webfm_send/40
[…proposes solutions to the converging challenges of climate change, oil depletion, and the vulnerability of the resource dependent Australian economy. Re-Energising Australia sets out what we need to achieve, a suite of policy options and strategies to do so, and the array of opportunities that such action presents.]
Re the China spy drama, mark Crosby at Core Economics adds a little more info.
http://economics.com.au/
The old Dino used to croon:
[I’m praying for a rain in California
So the grapes can grow and they can make more wine]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYIDZfMWzps
i thought i heard the Pommy cricket commentators were praying for the rain in Wales today so the grass can grow and they can save the cricket match.
Go Mitch, go.
Finns,
The rain in Wales protects the Pommy fails.
Aussies bat hard for a score opf 600+.
Johnson, Hauritz and Katich do the rest.
From Mark Colvin’s Twitter re Unca Rupert on his own Faux News:
[ColviniusMurdoch, asked on Fox about the tabloid hacking scandal: “I’m not talking about that” Anchor: “Fine with me, Mr Chairman]
Sounds remarkably like Jana interviewing Kerry Packer all those years ago.
Gary Bruce @ 125:
I am not really across these stories, as they don’t particularly interest me. Political themes and movements play out across months and years, and day-to-day stuff is mostly noise.
I spose my feeling is that a lot of confirmation-bias is seen in the criticism of the media. Some of it is obviously wretched, such as our good old OO (née GG), but I am not of the opinion that the ABC swings too much either way.
People see the news as confirming their pre-existing bias – we saw this during the Howard years, and we are seeing it now too.
GG @ 173
Interesting link.
Ruawake @ 169
Plausible. I simply don’t know.
Vera @ 171
I was waiting for that one!
Time will tell.
There is a fascinating article in the online version of the China Peoples Daily at:
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90002/96417/6628619.html
The tensions:
rich v the poor
the new policies on industrialization+commerce v the traditional focus on agriculture first
indirectly, a reminder of Chou’s deal: The Party does the politics – the people can go and get rich.
The timing may or may not be an accident in relation to the Hu incident.
[a reminder of Chou’s deal: The Party does the politics – the people can go and get rich.]
#180:
The Emperor does the politics – the people can go and get rich – it’s always been like that for China for the last 3000 years.
When will they ever learn? China is China is China.
the gloves are off between Rudd and the media. I guess he now realises that there is nothing he can do to please them so may as well have a swing. I’d hate to see them though if some REAL crisis developed.
Rudd answers the issue well in our ABC’s article: Rudd denies hiding climate change scepticism (no comment about the headline…)
Mr Rudd was filmed telling his Danish counterpart that negotiations for an agreement were not on track and that he was “quite worried about it”.
Yesterday he was talking up progress on climate change, but insists he has not been trying to hide the fact that the road to Copenhagen will be tough.
“In my plenary remarks yesterday, I said we’re currently not on track to get to Copenhagen,” he said.
“That’s what I said in the plenary session with all governments there to see.
“Now that doesn’t mean that you can’t maintain a posture of optimism about your ability to break through those obstacles.”
Next issue/beat-up???
Any hope that Abbot could become leader or deputy of the Liberal party has/will evaporate with his most recent flatulence:
[Make it harder to divorce, says Tony Abbott
July 11, 2009
Article from: Australian Associated Press
LIBERAL Party frontbencher Tony Abbott wants laws toughened up to make divorce harder.
The opposition families and Aboriginal affairs spokesman has called for a return to the fault-based system of divorce discarded in 1975, which was replaced by a “no-fault” system.]
Women of the Liberal party speak out.
Link for 184
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25767454-12377,00.html
Silly Abbott. Hope he gets lots of bad press for his bad idea.
SAD!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/cricket/england/8143340.stm
[Any hope that Abbot could become leader or deputy of the Liberal party has/will evaporate with his most recent flatulence:]
Abbott is addicted to demonstrating that he is an absolute joke.
He is completely stuck in the dark ages. People should be allowed to get divorced whenever they like, the Government should have absolutely nothing to do with it.
I don’t know if this has been mentioned earlier but Shaun Carney’s article on Rudd makes for interesting reading.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/proceed-with-calm-20090710-dfzp.html
Good old People Skills. Hello, Did it not sink through his thick skull, after not one but TWO all-party “Women’s [and men’s] revolts” over the so-called “abortion drug” & stem-cell research, that his “straight down the Vatican line” policies were lead-ballooning? Now he wants to turn the clock back to the pre-Whitlam Era and re-start the divorce blame-game. Does he have an interest in private-eye firms with their “gottcha” pics & lurid court cases the Sunday papers used to glor …
Hang on, Folks. He might be doing it to boost Rupe’s salacious scandal sheets’ sales. Circulation for a few of them has been plummeting.
What is the status of Abbott’s views?
Is he speaking as Shadow Minister for the Opposition on this topic? If so, is he accurately reflecting Opposition family policy?
Or is it the case that the Opposition is having a public policy discussion on the topic and the Shadow Minister is putting in his two bob’s worth?
If neither of the above, what is he doing? Is he talking as if wearing the hat of an individual private person?
How are voters supposed to sort all this out for themselves?
Abbott is a rabble of one.
[Abbott is addicted to demonstrating that he is an absolute joke.]
I think Swannie takes the cake in that department. 🙂
GP
Would you happen to know the status of Abbott’s comments?
No 193
He’s the Shadow Minister for Families, so his comments were presumably made in that capacity. Making it harder for married couples to divorce is certainly in line with maintaining families.
Although, it would have been better if he advocated that marriage be deregulated and governed by private contract.
Remain bored..more or less. And how more than boring is Abbott?
Footy, interesting but my tipping is crap. Cannot win the thing. Not really au fait with the Ashes, though we seem to be ahead. Tour de whatever, well cannot keep up.
Politics is..well, too….
Resorted to my once yearly refuge, the video shop.
Got to watch then, Gran Torino, while our Crows thrashed, trashed the poor fishers.
Not that I don’t love Freo, but gee!
Urgh – Dockers fan over here. I was expecting a loss, as I always do, but roughly once a season Freo do something truly shocking. The only bright side is now I can forget about the Dees winning from 50+ pts down last year. And to rub salt in, my second team lost to the Pies by a point. 🙁
To weakly tie this post to politics, Frank blames Adele Carles for the latest disaster (she won a certain by-election while the local team ‘led at three quarter time’), but I’m not so sure. They’re reminding me more of the Democrats circa 2006, or the current NSW govt. Whatever it is, it can’t be allowed to continue. Folk are waiting on South Tce with baseball bats. 😉
Little straw poll: what do PB’ers reckon will happen first – a Liberal federal government, or a Dockers premiership?
On the other hand, whilst Tony is boring on the surface, underneath he is hardly that.
A true zealot.
In the mold of the late Bob Santamaria.
Woe the Libs if they were to let him loose as some kind of leader. I wonder why they let him speak as he does.
Quite scary actually.
Yep. Dockers always, BP.
Sad about Freo tonight. Can be so great a team!
You guys must insist to the club that they get to wear the tops with the solid, traditional colours. I am pretty sure that to look effete makes one feel so.
Freo is always gorgeous and winning in their trads.
[To weakly tie this post to politics, Frank blames Adele Carles for the latest disaster (she won a certain by-election while the local team ‘led at three quarter time’), but I’m not so sure. They’re reminding me more of the Democrats circa 2006, or the current NSW govt. Whatever it is, it can’t be allowed to continue. Folk are waiting on South Tce with baseball bats. ;)]
Don’t you love meta Facebook posts 🙂
Mind you the Massacres nearly always occour at Away Games – Home Games are very close scoring games – I still reckon the travelling and the changing of time zones buggers WA Teams up.
Could not resist looking again before bedtime.
Dunno about Facebook, Frank.
And. of course, time matters. In zone terms. My advisers, that is I say laughingly, tell me that home and away makes a difference. Mind you, I should say that they are way ahead of me in the footy tipping. Tcch.
In between blog bits, I was watching Rage. Yothu Yindu et al.
No question that their colours matter. All the ochres, the fantastical, defiant, courageous, we live, stuff. Inspirational, in any one’s language.