Reuters Poll Trend: 55.8-44.2

The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.

Apart from that:

• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.

• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.

Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.

Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.

Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Reuters Poll Trend: 55.8-44.2”

  1. GB the MSM have really learnt alot from their failed Rudd bashing in the past havent they?? The more they do it, the more they show how out of touch and irrelevant they are. Just like the public service hours stuff, I dont think people are going to bothered by a PM who works people hard and uses technical terms at times. He’s the PM after all

  2. [One does miss the theatre of one’s career after one has retired. As long as one remembers it is only theatre.]

    I tried to be as ‘spiffing’ as I could be – dates, correct phraseology, etc.

    Got a bit cheeky and asked for it be forwarded on to the General Manager and to the ABC Board members as well. How about a copy going to Conroy?

    Better go – have a good week. Will try to pop in and have a read as I can. Keep up the good links guys.

    Vera – I’ll be screaming for the Swannies tomorrow. Hope your bunnies win too.

  3. 2200 Andrew I also think people now understand that Rudd uses terms according to the audience he is speaking to. The MSM seems to think this is wrong and that people care. Heaven knows why. All I can say is get used to it boys and girls because he is going to be around for awhile.

  4. I’ve noticed a couple of journos – Uhlmann, I think (wasn’t really paying attention) and Shanahanahanan today – running the line that the recent tax cuts benefitted the rich more than the poor, and implying that somehow the government was norty to let this happen.

    Anyone with any knowledge of the way income tax works knows that it’s impossible to design a tax cut which benefits lower income earners equally/more than higher income earners, because tax works on incrementals. It’s Taxation 101, and why (if you want to help lower incomes) governments go for means tested benefits.

    For two (at least) journos who SHOULD know this better than the average bear to run this line within days of each other suggests some kind of agenda.

    It’s the equivalent (in credibility terms) of two journos in the same week saying that Michael Jackson’s death impacted on the Australian unemployment figures – too implausible a statement to be made inadvertently once and certainly not twice.

  5. Hate to say it, but Vera and I are sworn enemies for tonight (in the nicest possible way of course)!! Go the Panthers 🙂

  6. What’s going on with Sky’s poll? They are usually 70/30 favouring Lib point of view, the latest one is out of whack 😉
    [Has the Government acted appropriately on the Stern Hu matter?]
    Yes 47
    No 53

  7. [Andrew I also think people now understand that Rudd uses terms according to the audience he is speaking to. The MSM seems to think this is wrong and that people care. Heaven knows why.]

    It’s utterly ridiculous. So he should speak the same to a room full of primary school kids and a room full of CEOs? The MSM just takes whatever beatup angle they can manage these days.

  8. Chris,

    I’ve been chuckling about that little factual error all afternoon.

    But, no matter. For our earnest Greens ‘space cadets” it makes no difference. There is no pollling statistic that does not imply the Greens will win lower house seats at the next election wherever it is held.

  9. possum nails what we have been on about really well

    “One of the things in Australian politics that never ceases to amaze is the way political commentators completely fail to understand the relationship between the Prime Minister and the public. If you read the papers for your weekly dose of Kevinology, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the Prime Minister is perpetually just one small political faux pas away from some great public reckoning in the polls, that his never ending honeymoon is an obscenity to the natural order that will collapse at any moment”

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/07/09/kevinology-101/

  10. 2205

    You mean Western Victoria not Western Metropolitan. I should have recognised his name as the DLP MLC that was elected there.

  11. New Morgan Poll:

    “Coalition loses more ground – ALP (58%, up 2%) ahead of L-NP (42%, down 2%)

    In early July 2009 ALP primary support is 46.5% (up 0.5%) and L-NP is down 4% to 35%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 58% (up 2%), while support for the L-NP is 42% (down 2%).

    If a Federal Election were held now the Rudd Government would retain Government according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekends of June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009.

    Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 11.5% (up 3.5%), support for Family First 2.5% (up 1.5%) and Independents/Others 4.5% (down 1.5%).

    Gary Morgan says:

    “The latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows a sharp drop-off in support for the L-NP (35%, down 4%), while ALP support continues to hold despite the rising number of Australians looking for a job or more work. The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate for June shows 7.8% (862,000) of Australians are unemployed and a further 8.8% (967,000) are under-employed.

    “The latest Roy Morgan June unemployment estimates show that unemployment is disproportionately affecting younger people. In today’s Herald-Sun, Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine points out that of those in the workforce, 30% of 14-17 yr olds and 11.6% of 18-24 yr olds do not have a job. Older age groups fare much better with only 5.6% of 35-49 yr olds and just 3.8% of people aged 50+ unemployed.

    “This latest Morgan Poll conducted during three major debates – unemployment, climate change/ Carbon trading and Liberal leadership shows the loss in support for the L-NP has not translated into primary support for the ALP. But, rather, it has translated into increased support for minor parties – particularly the Greens.”

    Full Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4399/

  12. 2212

    The next state election (by-elections excluded) is probably in Tasmania (the term has not been fixed so it might not be) where the polling is showing that the Greens will win seats in the HAT (brilliant acronym isn`t it).

  13. OK William we didnt get a new banner for the 58/42 Essential, Could we please have one for this 58/42 Morgan?? A better number than the poll trend!!!

  14. Turnbull is trying to imitate Bob Brown on “human rights abuses” in China.

    Malcolm – Bob Brown’s position has been consistent on this issue for well over a decade. You discovered it today? 🙁

  15. Ah, BH, Nothing is more calming than knowing whose party is in power & whose is not.

    I have a died-in-the-wool Tory sibling whose praise of Jeff I remember well enough, to respond, ever so nicely, to whinges about trains, power, not enough hospital beds etc, with, “Why are you blaming the [Labor] state government? Wasn’t it Jeffed?”; or to GFC whining, “That’s what happens when the USA president is Republican. George Dubya, his father 90-2, Reagan 82, Nixon-Ford 74+, Eisenhower 59-60, Hoover 1929-32 … You’d have thought Howard and Costello would know what was coming.”

    PS: German’s my 2nd language.

  16. Tom: Greens to win seats next Tasmanian election? I don’t think so.

    Kim Booth’s seat will be line-ball with both Kathryn Hay and Brant Webb running for Labor. All the others should get re-elected. But actually pick seats up? Where?

  17. Dario @2211
    Posted Friday, July 10, 2009 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Andrew I also think people now understand that Rudd uses terms according to the audience he is speaking to. The MSM seems to think this is wrong and that people care. Heaven knows why.

    It’s utterly ridiculous. So he should speak the same to a room full of primary school kids and a room full of CEOs? The MSM just takes whatever beatup angle they can manage these days.

    Indeed. It’s called voice or speaking/writing in a way which best suits any specific audience and/or occasion. One of the things English teachers start teaching about yr 9, if not before; certainly a senior secondary requirement. By year 11, writing/ speaking to a specific audience in a specific setting was certainly a significant part of the curriculum.

    So the majority of Gen X & Y should know that. Gawd we have some dumb (or very smartar#ed) journos.

  18. [Gawd we have some dumb (or very smartar#ed) journos]

    They’re not dumb. They know exactly what they’re doing.

  19. If St. Kev had phoned Hu Jintao to get a “special deal” for Stern Hu, would the Rabble be complaining that he was doing favours for Rio Tinto?

    Would they have emails and phone records? Would it be a case of doing deals for “business mates”.

    Would they ask questions in parliament about any Australian ever detained in China, and why Rudd never called Hu?

  20. Actually, it’s called a social or language register (or sociolinguistics) – best explained here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_register

    Hope that there are not too many big words for the News Ltd hacks that frequent this site. Gee imagine an uneducated blogger like me knowing that and a thouroughly educated, scrupulous and impartial news limited ‘journalist’ (I use the word veeerrrryyy loosely) not knowing that 🙂

    Tom.

  21. 2221

    They are unlikely to win new seats but the will probably win their current seats again.

    On your logic Labor seldom wins seats in Melbourne`s Northern and Western Suburbs.

  22. I suggest that the journos and politicians who use the word ‘China’ as if it were some sort of monolithic unitary dictatorship which works on some sort of auto-pilot, top-down command and control should go to the school of nuance.

    One of the tests for both Rudd and Turnbull here will be how well they enable Chinese internal balancers to swing events towards Australia’s interests while not compromising Chinese interests.

    Braying will not cut it.

  23. Greensborough (2212),

    I remember the occasions on which the Democrats would claim that they were going to win lower house single-member seats, to no avail apart from in SA where I think Robin Millhouse held one after he moved across from the Liberal Movement.

    Tom (2205),

    I do mean “Western Victoria”, but I did not write “Western Metropolitan”, though I understand why you thought I did. I said, “The seat I was referring to was Western, not Northern Metropolitan.” If I had meant “Western Metropolitan”, I would have written, “The seat I was referring to was Western, not Northern, Metropolitan.” As an English pedant, I understand the importance of commas. I am anti-communist, not anti-commaist.

    To be clear, I should have written, “The seat I was referring to was Western Victoria, not Northern Metropolitan.”

  24. Tom (2212),

    The “HAT”?! You’ll love today’s on-line story;
    “An initial batch of 100 of the so-called Highly Accomplished Teacher positions will be advertised in NSW in October before the plan is rolled out across the rest of Australia.”
    (NSW plan puts ‘super teachers’ in worst schools
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25760627-12377,00.html)
    I guess these HATs will be doing “The CAT in the HAT”. (Victorians may remember the Common Assessment Tasks of the VCE.)

  25. vera

    Bob Brown has for many years criticised things that the main parties will not, or can not do. Examples include he invasion of Tibet, the general lack of civil rights and the high levels of government executions.

    This principled stand is something that minor parties find easier to do than major parties that might have to work with China once they are in government.

    I would be wary of conflating opportunistic braying of Turnbull with the steady, principled approach of Bob Brown

  26. Tom 2226, it might be called “register” now in sociolinguistics, but it was called “voice” in English and Linguistics (Arts Faculties) long before it appeared as “Register” in sociolinguistics, and was still “voice” in English Curriculæ throughout my time in secondary ed.

    I checked Wiki, and it cites terms quite different from Anglo/Australian ones as late as the mid 1980s (so they are the terms most readers/ listeners would know). I note that Wiki states:

    these various approaches with their own “register” or set of terms and meanings fall under disciplines such as sociolinguistics, stylistics, pragmatics or systemic functional grammar

    hence there seems to be no agreed set of terms. Some of those used in the sort of analysis Arts faculties required, included: sense, feeling, tone, intention, voice, occasion.

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