The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
[As such people are entitled to believe all evidence given before the committee has the same status as ’sworn evidence’ even though no oath or affirmation is necessary.]
The same status perhaps, but not under oath 😉
Thanks Ario & Itep – bit both ways it appears.
Regarding the oath thingy.
Even under oath, what is the validity of a “well, yes, maybe, I think so but I might be wrong” statement.
Oath or no oath, penalty or no penalty, how could anyone, hearing Grech’s testimony, regard it as evidence of anything except that poor old Goodwin didn’t know which way was up?
For Turnbull-at-a-gate to be relying on Grech’s testimony, sworn or unsworn, is just unbelievable.
Bob,
A fair proportion of the growth in the Greens vote was because of the demise of the Democrats. Having a moderate and credibile right of centre alternative would be very attractive to some voters. My guess is they’d draw a lot of the FF preferences, plus disaffected Libs and a proportion of the parked protest vote which inflates the numbers for the Greens.
It’s all speculation Bob. But, the Greens should not be celebrating their obtaining the BOP just yet.
[Having a moderate and credibile right of centre alternative would be very attractive to some voters.]
Look what happened to FF.
[For Turnbull-at-a-gate to be relying on Grech’s testimony, sworn or unsworn, is just unbelievable]
Well he wasn’t just relying on his testimony… Gretch had already shown him the email previously. That was just his excuse.
[Having a moderate and credibile right of centre alternative would be very attractive to some voters]
Let me know when you find one
Anyway, the DLP are only right-wing socially. Economically, they’re centre-left. Most Libs wouldnt give them the time of day.
The Liberals have had this hangup with Oaths and swearing for a long time.
[They negotiated for it in a short private meeting whilst the hearing was suspended and, despite it making no difference whatsoever to the status of evidence given before the Senate, the committee decided that all witnesses to this inquiry would be required to give evidence by oath or affirmation.]
http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/1236
Yes Polyq – the indecisiveness of Grech, even relying on an oath, makes Turnbull’s reliance on it even less secure.
Reason I asked was because OH sent email to Milne after his ridiculous column last week asking how he could rely so heavily on the ‘oath’ not sworn.
OH got an answer today from Milne (lucky OH says me sarcastically) telling him to ring Harry Evans and when he finds out the correct info to let Milne know.!! Phone number for Harry was supplied.
Wonder what was wrong with Milne not lifting the phone before he wrote the article.
Greensborough (2142),
I feel I can call you by your first name as you live in the same general area as I do.
I am not connected with the DLP at all these days. I have met Peter Kavanagh once, at the launch of Noel Tennison’s My Spin in PR, and I catch up with friends from the old days (none of whom are members of the new DLP as far as I know). However, my membership ended when the party disbanded in 1978.
I doubt that the new DLP has the resources to run a serious campaign. Had I been advising it, I would have said that it should have run candidates in the federal seats in Peter Kavanaghs’ region in 2007 in order to help his vote in 2010, but it did not do so, suggesting that it could not.
[Well he wasn’t just relying on his testimony… Gretch had already shown him the email previously. That was just his excuse.]
Yes, of course. I did mean relying on it in defence of his actions in calling for Rudd’s resignation. I should have been clearer.
[Australia may or may not be about to confront a full-blown diplomatic conflagration with China over the arrest of Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu. Whether it blows up will almost certainly be influenced, and probably determined, by the precise manner in which the Rudd Government communicates with its Chinese counterparts.
These are the kinds of words and phrases that should describe the Australian Government’s approach to handling this crisis-in-waiting: sensitivity … finesse … cool-headedness … calmness … careful judgement … quiet diplomacy … apolitical …
These are the kinds of words and phrases that should not describe the Government approach: heavy-handedness … intervention … attacking the Chinese legal system … demanding action … exploiting the crisis for political gain … the Malcolm Turnbull approach … the Julie Bishop approach …
In the words of the Chinese proverb: A rat who gnaws at a cat’s tail invites destruction. ]
From Crikey today – A hint that Malcolm will undoubtedly not take.
Rudd’s swipe at News Ltd was brilliant. He made his (righteous) displeasure public so that now, whenever they run a bitchy headline, people think that its just News Ltd and sour grapes. News really got into bed with Turnbull on this one and they’re going to wear the cry wolf problem as much as he is.
Tom the first and best:
[I this scandal messes up the Tories then the LibDems might do a better as well as Labor.
Those pre-scandal polls?
If the scandal does not stick to the Cameron then the Tories will win (barring last minute electoral reform) but if it does then I would think that there would be a hung Parliament.]
FPTP sucks. If the LibDems do that well then the relationship between votes and seats will be severly undermined. Is there actually still time to reform the electoral system before the next elections?
With Labour on the nose the (proper) Left should do well with an increased Green vote, though probably still absolutly no seats. RESPECT Party will also do well.
Dario,
Both the DLP and Democrats were right of centre parties which had credibility because their Primary vote was usually 5% plus.
FF got lucky with an unusual flow of preferences. I think their actual vote was about 1%.
Just saying that as the Greens are put under more scrutiny in the lead up to the next election, an opportunity for a moderate alternative may emerge.
[Both the DLP and Democrats were right of centre parties]
The Democrats were never right of centre!
If Turnbull was relying of the sworn testimony of Grech at the senate economics committee, then what was the basis of his question to Rudd about Grant in early June?
2160
The DLP vote in Northern Metropolitan was so high largely because they had the first spot on the ballot paper and many people who wanted to vote ALP were confused and voted DLP. Without the DLP getting a position ahead of the ALP, the ALP might have got the extra 2% they needed to get the first three of their candidates elected without preferences from other parties.
2164
About the only reform they could implement before the next election would be the supplementary vote. This is a form of preferential voting where voters only get two preferences and all the elimination is done at once. It is used to elect the directly elected mayors in the parts of England that have them.
steve at 2167, the sworn testimony thing is a crock. And even if Turnbull was relying on this, why accept it hook line and sinker when Grech was qualifying it with statements such as I could be totally wrong/ my recollection could be totally false etc
[Rudd’s swipe at News Ltd was brilliant. He made his (righteous) displeasure public so that now, whenever they run a bitchy headline, people think that its just News Ltd and sour grapes. News really got into bed with Turnbull on this one and they’re going to wear the cry wolf problem as much as he is.]
And the phone bugging business in the UK will certainly help to give people the impression that News are rotten to the core. Perfect timing really.
[And even if Turnbull was relying on this, why accept it hook line and sinker when Grech was qualifying it with statements such as I could be totally wrong/ my recollection could be totally false etc]
Because Gretch had already shown him the email in private
And another thing about Turnbull’s judgement, did he really think a smart and savvy player like Rudd would risk his political career to give special treatment to a used car salesman??
Dario has that claim been reported in the media or is it a rumour?? Didnt Turnbull deny having seen it, or was it just not being in possession of it??
2165
The ALP has moved to the right, over the past thirty years or so, and that has opened up a place for a party left of the ALP. The Democrats in thee latter years appealed to voters to the left of the ALP but also voters to its right and this was the cause of the fighting that lead to the demise of the Democrats. The Greens fill the middle class left of the ALP space. There may also be space for a working class party left of the ALP like many of the Germany and some of the Nordic Countries have (as well as Greens).
Steve – Turnbull was ‘all bull’ when saying he was relying on Grech’s evidence because, as others have said, he knew earlier about the email.
I think even if Grech had sworn an oath his comments still were that he was unsure. Turnbull was trapped by Rudd the minute he said he was relying on what Grech said at the hearing.
My OH has no intention of ringing Harry Evans or replying to Glenn Milne’s email but I was just clarifying from you guys whether Milne was right in relying so heavily on an oath in defence of Turnbull.
Abetz has been quiet hasn’t he.
Andrew,
Abetz and Turnbull met with Grech. Grech showed them the email but would not let them take it away. Abetz wrote down the substance of the email and probably used those notes for his questioning on the Friday.
[Dario has that claim been reported in the media or is it a rumour?? Didnt Turnbull deny having seen it, or was it just not being in possession of it??]
Reported by the media from a ‘highly placed source’
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25686095-662,00.html
[And another thing about Turnbull’s judgement, did he really think a smart and savvy player like Rudd would risk his political career to give special treatment to a used car salesman??]
Turnbull didn’t care whether he actually gave the guy special treatment or not. Just the smear of the accusation would be enough.
Dario,
BTW the highly placed source for that McManus article was Abetz
I’m all for multi-party systems and consider 1 or 2 party systems to be almost inheritally undemocratic but I just don’t think there is room for another Right-wing party in Australian politics. The Liberals and Nationals are both broad coalitions and cover much ground ranging from xenephobic wacko’s, The TodayTonight working-class (to coin a not-so PC phrase), the Religious Right, Fat Cat big business tycoons, agrarian rednecks etc.. If those groups split up to form their own parties and with some joining FF, the DLP, the CDP, the Shooters, the KKK party and others sticking with the LIbs or Nats then a split Right could harm them or could also give them oxygen under the right circumstances. I’d kinda prefer a split Right but that won’t make it so.
For now it is only the Greens, ALP and COALition that are proper publically backed movement entities. The KKK would be better off attempting to infiltrate the Nats.
When King Molotov the Awesome is crowned I’ll bring in PR and the different bodies within the Libs can split up so we know what sort of Rightist we are dealing with but until that happens the COALition will be the only significant Right wing group with FF and CDP at the edges. In Europe the enemy identify themselves better: Cristian Democrats (with seperate moderate and extremist parties), Liberals/Libertarian-Rightists, Nationalist Racists, Rightist Euroskeptics etc, all get their own party – simple!
Turnbull first asked Rudd about the ute and Grant on June 4 (from memory) well before the week prior to the “sworn testimony” he claimed was the basis for the resignation call.
steve,
It’s also claimed that Turnbull was hawking the story about the ute to a number of journalists and editors.
I’m hoping the AFP inquiry reveals when Turnbull became aware of its existence and who told him.
BH @ 2141 posted:
I wish Uhlmann wouldn’t judge all PM’s by Howard’s antics. Most of them have measured success and self-fulfilment by achievement, not determinedly inserting themselves into every famous anybody’s photo op. Who’ll ever forget JH’s 2000 Olympics’ performances; cartoonists had a field day! Those, his fawning over Bush and his “look at moi, look at moi” morning walks in trakki daks, speak of more psychological problems than inability to look people in the eye and take a PM’s responsibility for his government’s actions.
Perhaps someone should also tell Uhlmann that intelligent Aussies are sick of being talked down to by dumbed down journos, on TV as well as in print. I had no trouble with Programmatic specificity (hope I remembered that correctly). It’s a common phrase in government, business, industry (even education; tho in ed it’s usually curricular specificity); a short form of a tactical/ operational planning & management requirement which would take a long sentence to explain in dumbed down words. Save that language for those who watch ACA & TT, or read Murdoch tabloids. The rest of us expect something better from ABC & SBS.
[Abetz wrote down the substance of the email and probably used those notes for his questioning on the Friday.]
GG, I don’t believe that whatsoever. As I have posted a couple of times previously, during that part of the Senate Hearing when Abetz read out the wording of the “e-mail” to Grech, you could clearly see Abetz holding up a “copy” of the e-mail as he spoke.
On a HD television replay of it you can “clearly see” that it is in proper e-mail format and not just some words typed out on a piece of paper!
The only conclusion that can be gained from this is either Grech handed Turnbull and Abetz a copy of the suspect e-mail at that meeting or else he sent them a copy via his home computer which would explain why Turnbull won’t allow the AFP to inspect their computers.
If Grech sent a copy this way to both Lewis and Turnbull, then they are in quite a sticky position!
Morgan Poll ALP 58 L-NP 42 I suspect it is a face to face poll, even though Gary claims it to be both a phone poll and a face to face.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4399/
[apparently the Pope gave Kev a pen so Uhlmann said, in a very sarcastic tone, that when Kev gets back here he will be waving the pen around saying ‘Here’s my pen. I’m a powerful man, you know”.]
Uhlmann is just trash. That sort of commentary does not belong on the ABC. And people wonder why Howard stacked the board.
OzPolT – I’m sending off an email to ABC – your analysis at 2184 of Rudd’s words is good.
[GG, I don’t believe that whatsoever. As I have posted a couple of times previously, during that part of the Senate Hearing when Abetz read out the wording of the “e-mail” to Grech, you could clearly see Abetz holding up a “copy” of the e-mail as he spoke.]
Well, he could have typed it up himself after writing it down, and emailed it to Malcolm or whoever, then printed out a copy. We simply don’t know.
scorpio,
I am going by what McManus wrote in the HS article linked by Dario @ 2178. It’s up to you whether you believe it or not.
Turnbull has said they are totally co operating regarding the emailgate matter. It’s got to be true. He said it in Parliament.
Re the email Abetz was reading from. There may be another explanation. e.g. It might have been sent around the Liberals and he was reading from an approved copy. I don’t know and your suspicions may be well founded.
[Well, he could have typed it up himself after writing it down, and emailed it to Malcolm or whoever, then printed out a copy. We simply don’t know.]
All that tells me is that whichever way it was done there was a conspiracy of sorts and that Lewis, Grech, Turnbull, Abetz and most probably Hockey were all involved in one of the most shameful episodes in Australian political history.
And we must not forget News Ltd, without whose involvement, it would probably not have got as far as it did!!!
I think Ulhmann stood for the ACT Legislative Assembly for a far right christian party, which explains a lot about his attitude towards Rudd. I have lodged about a couple of complaints against him. The more the better. FOI anyone?
Turnbull is expressing his outrages and concerns for his fellow Australian citizen’s human rights again on Skynews.
Gee, it moves me to tears and I just want to vote for him now. Onya, Malcolm.
Adrin – I have sent off a long email complaining about his blatant disrespect for our Prime Minister this week. Several instances. If it is fobbed off by their Complaints Dept. then I’ll do an Abetz and Ferranti-Wells or whatever her name is and take it further.
Uhlmann is a poor excuse for a Chief Political Reporter and has been getting away with amateur performances for too long.
Onya, BH, you’re a stirring spirit after mine own heart! Did you notice, yesterday, that every news bulletin (inc ABC & SBS) used exactly the same footage & made almost identical snide remarks about Rudd’s “big words” (or similar). Did they all get together to plan a concerted attack, or did that clip come through with the dumbar#ed comment attached? I’ve just had visitors drop around & they commented on it with the comment “I thought most people would know what they mean. Most tradies do, though they talk about “plans’ specs”.
OzPol – My old man is an arty-farty former graphics bloke. He hated my legal jargon, but when he heard Kev talking to the Germans even he knew exactly what was being said and he pulled my attention to it (knowing what a tragic I am).
I reckon they all decide what is going to be the ‘hit on Govt’ for the day and it goes from there. They’re a bunch of copycats.
I used to say that there’s nothing much you can do about it. Letters used to take too long but now with emails you can click on the site. Bad luck for them.
It’s our money and seeing that a majority of the electorate didn’t vote for their preferred mob that gives them no right to be blatant either way. I’d love it to be all our way but that’s ridiculous too so I’d like it to be fairer than it is.
We are expecting, in 1/2 hour, redneck South Aussie lib voters here for a week’s stay. We love them dearly but I will be putting the earmuffs on for the bashing I will get about Kev and the glorification of the old bloke. The cricket will be painful if they show Hyacinth and husband as there may be tears of joy from our visitors at the sight of them. – urrgh
I must be placid for a week. I must be placid for a week.
Re dario 2178
As I said before
[Posted Monday, June 29, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Turnbull will stay unless the AFP investigation reveals talks between Godwin Grech and Turnbull. As I’ve said before, if it turns out that Grech showed Turnbull the email, then Turnbull is toast because Grech said he didn’t have the email in Senate estimates and Turnbull would have known that not to be true.]
…and today
[MALCOLM Turnbull met Godwin Grech and was shown the now notorious fake Ozcar email, the Herald Sun has been told]
Turnbull knew GG had the email and yet he believed GG’s testimony at teh senate hearing despite the fact that GG said he did not have the email.
Grech lied and Turnbull and Abetz knew it
I’m no expert but even I figured out what Kev was talking about. It’s the usual suspects making mischief or trying to. In this case it was Neil Mitchell on Talking Liberal 3AW.
BH @ 2195, one of those communications decorated with every qualification you have, with appropriate institution bracketed, and all correctly punctuated? Dr (pre nomen, as well as post) works a treat! Friend of mine tabulated the effects of hers for an hilarious “before & after” post-dinner speech: reply (Y/N), rapidity, obsequity of, who signed etc. Fellowships have a lot of clout. Imperial & Oz honours more. Laik seying the rait words in the rait axent – ’tis a long time since one’s selected terms laik “programmatic specificity”: (with rounded non-dipthong Os and the appropriate whistle in specificity) and remembered, when one uses informal speech, to say “Ai’ve not” not “I haven’t”.
One does miss the theatre of one’s career after one has retired. As long as one remembers it is only theatre.