Morgan: 58-42

The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42. Conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 1190 (smaller than usual from a poll covering two weeks), it has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46.5 per cent and the Coalition down a sharp four points to 35 per cent. The slack has been taken up by the Greens, up 3.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.

Here’s an incomplete sampling of the past week’s action. This site’s normal energy levels will resume in about a week or so.

• Monday’s weekly Essential Research survey had Labor’s two-party lead up from 58-42 to 59-41. Supplementary questions showed a spike in confidence in the economy, but a somewhat paradoxical increase in concern about employment; Joe Hockey favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 17 per cent to 13 per cent; and the Labor Party viewed more favourably than the Liberals on 11 separate measures.

• The South Australian Liberals have a new leader in Heysen MP Isobel Redmond. Redmond succeeds Waite MP Martin Hamilton-Smith, who was mortally wounded after accusing the government of doing favours for an organisation linked to the Church of Scientology using what proved to be faked emails. Hamilton-Smith called an initial spill last Friday after Mackillop MP Mitch Williams quit the shadow ministry, which was universally interpreted as an attempt to undermine Hamilton-Smith ahead of a future pitch for his job. However, Williams declined to put his name forward at the ensuing spill, at which the sole rival nominee was deputy leader and Bragg MP Vickie Chapman. After inital expectations he would comfortably survive, Hamilton-Smith emerged from the vote without the support of a party room majority: while he won the vote 11 to 10, one member had abstained. Hamilton-Smith called another spill to clear the air, but when Redmond (who had been newly elected in place of Chapman as deputy) said she would put her name forward he announced he would stand aside. The result was a three-way tussle between Redmond, Chapman and Williams, in which Redmond defeated Chapman by 13 votes to nine after Williams was excluded in the first round. Goyder MP Steven Griffiths won the vote for deputy ahead of Williams by eight votes to six (since only lower house MPs get to vote for the deputy, whereas members from both houses have a vote for the leadership).

Antony Green crunches some electoral numbers to conclude that, contrary to widespread belief, Labor’s position in the Senate would be better if the next election were for half the chamber in the normal fashion, rather than a double dissolution.

• Against his better judgement, Peter Brent at Mumble enters the world of blogdom. He’s also written a piece on Inside Story which delivers on what I emptily promised a few weeks back, namely to review the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters report into the 2007 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

681 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  1. [Chapman subsequently stepped aside from the deputy position]

    I thought Redmond won the deputy position in the first spill, so how could she have stepped aside in the second?

  2. from previos thread
    [I would be wary of conflating opportunistic braying of Turnbull with the steady, principled approach of Bob Brown]
    It would IMO be double standards to criticise Turnbull for demanding Rudd personally intervene but then saying it’s quite allright for Brown to make the exact same statement. I don’t think Brown challenging Rudd to step in and making statements about how quick those evil Chinese are to execute innocent victims a steady principled approach. But that’s my opinion and we are allowed to have differing opinions here at PB πŸ™‚

  3. I don’t know if William cares to add it to his post, but MHS announced he would stand aside immediately after the vote, but Graham Gunn and Ivan Venning (conservatives) urged him to reconsider as that would have immediately handed the leadership to Chapman. He took their advice, kept the job, then announced the spill, then stood aside.

  4. I will back Bob Brown on his human rights stance – he has held this view for yonks. If he called on St. Kev to call Hu about Hu he is a dill.

    Turnbull is a dill on the second count and a hypocrit on the first.

  5. And Stephen Smith puts Turnbull in his place πŸ™‚

    [But Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith says the Government has to respect China’s laws.

    “There is a limit to what Australia can do,” he said.

    “Under Chinese law, which is what we’re dealing with, a person can be detained for some time without charge, and only when he is charged is he eligible to get legal representation.

    “That is the Chinese system. It differs markedly from our own.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/10/2622819.htm?site=news

  6. 2237 on the previous thread

    What has that got to do with my argument over the meaning of winning a seat?

  7. OzpolT from the previous thread, you obviously have a deeper knowledge that me in the area – I’ll happily defer to you. Betya the NEW ltd hacks are struggling with the concept though πŸ™‚

    Tom.

  8. [I will back Bob Brown on his human rights stance – he has held this view for yonks. If he called on St. Kev to call Hu about Hu he is a dill.]
    Dill IMHO
    [ALEXANDRA KIRK: Kevin Rudd has said that currently the case is being dealt with at a consular level and that it’s best to take a cautious approach. Is he right?

    BOB BROWN: Why is it best to take a cautious approach? And what does that mean? Where is the difference between caution and obsequiousness; tugging the forelock to the heavies in Beijing?

    ALEXANDRA KIRK: Malcolm Turnbull has said the Prime Minister should pick up the phone and intervene personally. What’s your view?

    BOB BROWN: Look you might say well normally politicians or Prime Ministers don’t get involved in legal cases; you let the course of justice take its own trajectory. But there isn’t a course of justice in China.

    I think the Prime Minister should have got on the phone and had a word to Hu Jintao who’s back in China because of the massive death toll in Urumqi in Xinjiang province, and should have been making sure that this Australian citizen’s plight was taken note of at that highest level.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2009/s2622386.htm

  9. I think that Labor should start to use the phrase ‘bull in a China shop’ to describe Malcolm. Should resonate nicely, all things considered.

  10. Thanks Bob, I might well add that information if I had time and a more reliable internet connection. As you might have gathered, I am not entirely full bottle on these events just at the moment.

  11. WB @ 19

    [I am not entirely full bottle on these events just at the moment.]

    Would that be full sauce bottle, or just ordinary bottle?

  12. [Would that be full sauce bottle, or just ordinary bottle?]

    He might be a bit slow in responding as he’s probably busy giving it a fair shake.

    πŸ™‚

  13. Would Malcolm Turnbull be embarrassed if the Chinese authorities gave information to ASIC that results in legal action, against a company, being taken in Australia? πŸ˜‰

  14. WB, BB, bob1234 Tsk tsl, all very ethnocentric. There’s always ye olde England’s

    “bottle” Noun. Courage, confidence. E.g.”Johnny’s scared, he’s lost his bottle.”
    Verb. To smash a bottle into a person’s face, very often a beer bottle after a drinking spree.

    “bottle it” Verb. 1. To lose courage. Also bottle out. See ‘bottle’.
    2. Shut up! Usually imper.

  15. Tom,
    2233 was about Highly Accomplished Teachers.

    If you meant 2231, I will quote what I said:
    β€œI remember the occasions on which the Democrats would claim that they were going to win lower house single-member seats, to no avail apart from in SA where I think Robin Millhouse held one after he moved across from the Liberal Movement.”
    The Tasmanian House of Assembly does not have single-member seats.

  16. OK so if the sharp drop in the polls is not going to convince Turnbull to change course, then nothing will. The MSM may like an opposition that simply opposes everything but the public sure doesn’t. Does he know he’s on the way out and trying to land a few blows beforehand??

  17. I saw Turnbull on last nights news demanding that Rudd intervene and ensure this blokes (Rio exec) release. It was Turnbull’s opportunistic grandstanding at its worse. It’s just beautiful the way Turnbull keeps getting uglier and uglier with every interview. Keep it up lightweight!

  18. Turnbull certainly does seem to be coming across uglier and angrier.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if this bloke loses it and blows up before he gets the flick. I am not kidding! Remeber Bludgers you read it here first πŸ˜‰

  19. BTW: did we have to pay for Howie and Hyacinth to be at the cricket?

    Another shot of them on my TV, i will shoot my TV.

  20. What about our Rudd with Obama, hey! The Liberals don’t have to worry about the taxpayers getting their moneys worth with Rudd overseas. Everytime he is seen or opens his mouth, our standing in the world rises.

  21. Masters of the dark arts – News of the World reporters used ‘toolkit’ of tricks

    Don’t ya luv it when THe Guardian talks dirty!

    And, while Scotland Yard might not be interested Three inquiries launched into News of the World hacking claims

    The director of public prosecutions, Keir Starmer, announced he was intending to launch an urgent review of the evidence relating to phone hacking gathered in the investigation of the News of the World reporter Clive Goodman, who was jailed for obtaining information illegally.

    A powerful Commons select committee said it would be calling senior managers from News International to give evidence as early as next week to clarify what they knew about malpractice by journalists at the News of the World. Andy Coulson, the former editor of the paper and now the Conservative party’s director of communications, will be asked to appear. He has always denied he knew reporters working for him had hacked into the mobile phones of politicians and celebrities.

    The Press Complaints Commission also announced it was conducting an inquiry

    This despite the clains in the Dark Arts story:

    Another told BBC’s Newsnight programme that when Coulson was deputy editor of the News of the World: “Andy would be at the heart of the operation. He would be 10 feet away from where these [blagging and intercept] operations were coordinated. He didn’t operate in an ivory tower. Every morning at 11am he went in to conference and the provenance of these pieces was taken apart.”

  22. Paaptsef, my rankings of the worst professions:

    1. Merchant Bankers
    2. Ltd News Journalists
    3. Liberal Party Politicians
    4. Divorce Lawyers

    Car salesman are honest and trustworthy human beings compared to the above!

  23. Winners and losers.

    William Bowe introduces this poll thusly:

    “The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the Ozcar aftermath ……………. has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46.5 per cent and the Coalition down a sharp four points to 35 per cent. The slack has been taken up by the Greens, up 3.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.”

  24. Centre, switching between cricket ,footy & betting on dogs and the bike race will be on soon!! Checking PB every so often between bets.
    Just said to OH, it’s only half time we can still manage to lose πŸ˜›

  25. [Now, fredex, if I implied that votes went from the Coalition to the Greens, bob would get very cross with me!]

    Can anyone say Fremantle ? πŸ™‚

  26. [Now, fredex, if I implied that votes went from the Coalition to the Greens, bob would get very cross with me!]

    If the coalition drop 3, Labor doesn’t move, and the Greens gain 3, you’re a fool for thinking nobody moved in or out of the Labor vote.

  27. No, Zoomster I didn’t mean to imply that, altho’ I can see the numbers crudely suggest that.
    I would assume, without evidence, that out of the total 100% some people changed their mind about their party of choice and the sum total was marked by a large, greater than MOE [?] gain, for the Greens and a loss, greater than MOE ?, for the COALition.
    And very minor movements for the ALP, FF and Ind/others.
    I would guess some amidst the to and froing that occurred some Libs went to ALP, some to FF et al, some to Greens.

    But on the numbers from the poll we can suggest the Ozcar ‘effect’ overall was negative for the COALition, positive for the Greens and neutral/ very slightly positive for the ALP and ‘others’.

    And positive for Rudd personally and the reverse for Malcolm.

  28. OK, bob, so let’s assume (for discussion’s sake) that, of that 3% shift, 2.5 went from Liberal to Labor and 0.5 to the Greens. Simultaneously, there was a 2.5 shift from Labor to the Greens.

    Given the events in the polling period we’re looking at, explain why there would be a substantial shift from Labor to the Greens.

    I can understand why a number of Libs, disenchanted with MT and unable to face voting for unionists, would shift to the Greens. I can’t see any rational argument for a substantial shift of the Labor — Green vote.

    Willing to listen.

  29. zooms – the ALP currently holds the middle, people get disenchanted by b@llshit squabling which becomes white noise to many. General anti-politician feeling would inlflate any ‘other’s. Greens seem to be the other at the moment.

  30. Vera, I hate you, I hate you and I hate you! That Howard fellow was right, you lefties are to full of hubris and you haven’t even started gloating yet!! Too many injuries and too much inexperience. See you tomorrow πŸ™‚

    Tom.

  31. Pancho, agree, and that’s really what I’m getting at. Liberals are just as likely – and more likely, given the events of the past fortnight – to go for ‘A.N. Other’ as Labor voters are.

    When you can explain why a block of voters would have moved from A to B but you can’t explain why a block of voters (at the same time) would move from C to B, then you use the Occam’s razor approach and assume that they moved from A to B.

    I’m NOT anti Green (why some of my best friends are Green, and I got a lovely Christmas card from the local Green candidate, saying how approachable and helpful I was…) but I’m a bit puzzled by their reluctance to accept that some Liberal voters by pass Labor and move directly to the Greens, even when the figures suggest very strongly that this is what’s happening.

    For the record: I have spent the last twelve years analysing booth voting figures across this electorate (over 100 booths). I compare State and Federal voting numbers. I identify local issues which may have shifted votes (and check with locals of all political persuasions to verify if these did have an impact). I know booths where the vote rises by 10% if we have someone there on the day handing out htvs; I know others which swing because of the weather.

    In short, I have some knowledge of what I’m talking about.

    And when a big block of voters move from point A and point B picks up a big block of voters at the same time, yes, it’s a generalisation to say they all moved from A to B but it’s a fair bit that most of them did.

  32. zoom, getting insulted by Bob — that’s like losing a pawn in a game of chess. We have been insulted by experts. Remeber Steven Kaye and Nostradamus πŸ˜†

  33. Centre

    I have a vivid memory of what happened on this site once when I suggested that people (who claimed to be Democrat supporters) were being a bit over the top in their criticisms of Hillary…

    shudder..

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