Newspoll 56-44; ACNielsen 58-42; Galaxy 56-44

1,641 comments on “Newspoll 56-44; ACNielsen 58-42; Galaxy 56-44”

1. The nation, its states & Councils are controlled by a symbiotic relationship between politicians and politics (with the help of the PS etc). The answers to political questions, big and small, are political responses – except for a few overriding events/ crises, like natural disasters and events like Port Arthur massacre, E Timor & the Bali bombing.

   I’m sure CPRS will pass the Seante pretty much as is – with a possible non-core concession or two to the Liberals, who want few things less than a DD. I’m sure all the tax bills will pass the Senate … ditto. It’s in the Opposition’s best interest to rebuild some of its electoral support to minimise the next election’s damage. It’s in the Government’s best interests to limit the damage the Greens and Indes might cause in the Senate.

   Minimising the Greens would play a role (probably next in importance to avoiding a DD) in Turnbull’s offer to negotiate with Rudd; its primary reasons to limit Green power by moderating (if possible) rather than strengthening CC legislation; its secondary to minimise voter and preference drift to the Greens from the major parties.

   Either major party in government will have to deal with (a) climate change and (b) the Greens. Mainstreaming a major issue is always the best way of limiting the power of special interest parties. Mainstreaming CC is the best way to limit the Greens. Australian parliaments have successfully either seen off most break-away and special interest parties, or melded them into major parties/ coalitions (ALP and various conservative/ Lib-Country/Nat Coalitions).

2. Oz, the problem with using ‘everyone knows’ is that it’s usually obvious that not ‘everyone’ agrees.

3. A leader with a low arrogance rating would be skating on thin ice, likewise leader with a high arrogance rating. They would want to have exceptional other characteristics. Arrogance is not neccessarily a bad thing unless it is coupled with untrustworthiness, then it is devestating. Ask Malcolm.

4. Hugo – join the list of people who can never remember their log in bits.

   I learnt my lesson a couple of years ago and now write them all in a book. The next step is to remember what goes with what. Life’s cruel sometimes. lol

   And ain’t Malcolm finding that out today. Serves him right for landing poor sick Grech in the mire and then making out he knew nothing about it. Turnbull deserved a rotten poll.

5. The Coalition is “firm” on their position on the ETS:
   http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2611060.htm?section=justin

   Andrew Robb has documentary evidence the scheme is flawed.

6. Was it leaked? Is it real?

7. Why is Newspoll out a day early? Assume they knew Neilsen would publish today, and did not want to miss out on the coverage.

8. TP

   I’d certainly watch out if the coalition tried to drag Ian Plimmer into a Senate committee to give evidence on climate change. Or Steven “man of reason” Fielding 🙂

9. [There – i admitted i was wrong – which is more than can be said for some others on here ;)]
   Well I predicted that MT might have used his post-Costello political capital to force a DD and take the inevitable hit sooner, rather than later.

   I’d like to withdraw.

   MT is obviously too risk-adverse to run with that.

10. TP

    [Was it leaked? Is it real?]

    – He talked about having their own modelling done this a.m so you are right – every time the Libs do something we can ask “is it real”. What info did they put into it, who provided the money, etc. The poor devils are stuck with that phrase forever.

    I loved Vera’s piece the other from Barcelona News where they reported the fake emil story and had a go at the Murdoch press for promoting it. Has Rupert done something to someone in Spain.

11. Malcolm gambled everything before he had put in the proper foundations of trustworthiness and approval. Mal this is what happens when you don’t spend time on foundataions – this aparment block in Shanghai yesterday that just ‘decided’ to literally fall over.

    http://eng.wcetv.com/1/2009/06/28/201s15712.htm

12. Sheehan has gone back to form – labor is a pack of hyena’s attacking poor old Malcolm.
    Never mind he inflicted this all on himself and his party.

    But I do like the bit towards the end – shown below – although I’m not reading it in the context sheehan intended.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/a-hyena-pack-hunts-in-canberra-20090628-d17a.html?page=-1

    A hyena pack hunts in Canberra

    [
    A hyena pack hunts in Canberra

    * Paul Sheehan
    * June 29, 2009

    f

    Illustration: Michael Mucci

    Wildlife programs on TV are wholesome, but they are often heavily censored, especially those depicting life on the plains of Africa. The editing always draws a veil at gruesome moments, such as when a pack of hyenas have brought down their prey. Hyenas don’t wait for their food to be dead.

    They start to rip and tear while there is still life and movement, before the eyes of their prey glaze and natural opiates puts the animal into numbed shock. It is nature’s in-built protection for violent death.

    We got the uncensored equivalent live on TV last week, when our federal leaders descended on their prey, eyes gleaming, bloodlust in the air, red meat on the floor. There were five men operating as a pack – Kevin Rudd, Anthony Albanese, Lindsay Tanner, Tony Burke, Chris Bowen – with an intent to leave a shredded political carcass on Capital Hill.

    The attack was foreshadowed in Parliament two weeks ago, on June 17, when the Minister for Agriculture, Tony Burke, rose to speak about the Leader of the Opposition, Malcolm Turnbull, and his past association with Axiom Forest Resources.

    “The company engaged in logging in the Solomon Islands in the 1990s, at the time that [Turnbull] was both its chairman and a shareholder,” Burke said, paraphrasing an AusAID report. “The impact from the destruction of the resource was such that, instead of it being done in a sustainable way, it was essentially shot to pieces.

    “It was also revealed in March 2007 that the chairman bought in at $200,000 and sold out one year later for $25 million. That is not a bad story for the Leader of the Opposition but a pretty shocking story for the residents of that island in the Solomon Islands.”

    The real attack, the death hunt, began in Parliament last Monday, led by the Prime Minister.

    “The member for Wentworth [Turnbull] is no longer fit to occupy the office of Leader of the Opposition … no longer tenable … his fingerprints [are] all over the promotion of this fake email … he sought to threaten Dr Charlton from my office,” Rudd said.

    Inevitably, there followed numerous snapping lunges from the Government’s chief enforcer, Albanese, the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport.

    “[Turnbull] has form. During the legal action related to the Costigan royal commission [in 1984] … the judge condemned Turnbull’s tactics, saying … he had ‘managed effectively to poison the fountain of justice’ … [and] ‘an abuse of legal process’ …” Albanese said.

    “He has been exposed as a grubby opportunist who will do any thing to get into office, just as he would do anything to knock off Peter King, a sitting member from the Liberal Party, just as he would do anything to destroy people in the ARM [Australian Republican Movement]. What a success that was!”

    Tanner, the Minister for Finance, took the next bite: “This is not the first time he [Turnbull] has behaved like a grubby opportunist … I remind everybody in the House of his involvement with the HIH disaster. In 1997, along with Rodney Adler, he explored the prospect of buying HIH and decided that it was not a good purchase.

    “He was paid $1.5 million to help FAI find a buyer. He advised FAI not to get an independent valuation of its assets. He wrote to Goldman Sachs, his employers in New York, on 7 September, 1998, saying that the true net value of the assets of FAI was about $20 million. It was then later sold to HIH, partly on his advice, for $295 million. That played a central role in the collapse of HIH and we all know the misery that caused …”

    Burke added: “If you want to find a story about deals for mates … look back at the time [Turnbull] served as a minister in the previous government… A company named the Australian Rain Corporation … . sought money and the National Water Commission [which] … recommended that the [minister] provide them with $2 million for a trial …

    “He wrote to the prime minister seeking a lazy $10 million for the Australian Rain Corporation … This is where we discover that an executive of the corporation happened to be a next-door neighbour of [Turnbull]. The same person, the same neighbour, was a member of his electorate fund-raising committee, the Wentworth Forum … .

    Bowen, the Minister for Financial Services, said: “He [Turnbull] has been shown to be a shallow man… a man who has sold out on all semblance of credibility … . he has made himself a weapon and a tool of smear and innuendo … ”

    Tanner: “Malcolm Turnbull has taken a large campaign donation from an American billionaire closely linked to the predatory lending practices that triggered the sub-prime lending crisis …

    “Peter Briger, chairman and director of controversial ‘vulture company’, Fortress Investment Group, contributed $US50,000 – or $76,000 – to the Liberal campaign fund for the Opposition Leader’s seat of Wentworth last year.”

    Albanese: “I understand that the member for Wentworth knows a dead cat when he sees one… I could have sworn I was witnessing the ghost of Mark Latham. It was all there: the jaw jutting out, all the fake aggression, all the machismo … ”

    Burke: “I am aware of potential threats to Jasper the cat, living at the Lodge. I do put the Leader of the Opposition on notice; if anything happens to Jasper the cat, questions will be asked.”

    By the time they had trawled through Turnbull’s past, the Opposition Leader was portrayed, under the privilege of Parliament, as a treacherous, bullying, smearing, opportunistic, justice-poisoning, forest-stripping, tax-avoiding, profiteering, cat-abusing loser.

    I had thought all this was being warehoused for the next election. But no, they want him dead now. ]

    No. Labor wants him for the next election. Wrong again sheehan.

13. BH said “I think most people understand that a little arrogance is a good thing as a PM.”

    There’s a difference between “self-belief”, without which few would achieve anything, and “arrogance”.

    “Arrogance” is often a construct (ie a word “we compose of words which we have a concept of” http://www.update.uu.se/~fbendz/philo/words.htm ) people like to throw at intelligent, successful, highly effective, confident, well prepared people they dislike or envy – although there are people so sublimely blind to anything other than their own ego, who truly earn the term (eg Louis XV of France).

    “Arrogance” is one of those constructs one needs to justify, in case it is perceived as saying more about the user than the person against whom it is used.

    In OzPolitics, the arrogant SM Bruce of the 1920s would successfully reinvent himself in the 1930s. Menzies as PM 1939-41 was usually described, especially by his own party, as “arrogant”. The same term is rarely applied to same man’s as PM 1949-66. In both cases, “arrogant” was well earned; so was its disappearance after each’s “Fall”. Both remained “self-confident” without reverting to arrogance, because each learned his lesson well. In that, there are lessons to be learned both by politicians and those who deem them arrogant.

14. One of the great funny asides in this mornings coverage of the poll results came from the Sky News female political reporter, a person seriously out of her depth in that role. She insisted all morning that the mad monk Abbott came through last weeks pathetic display by the Opposition strongly and handled his temp role, in Pynes absence, in a strong and forceful way. She also implied Abbott would feature in any Turnbull front bench shakeup as he is a ‘strong and forceful’ performer!!!!! Abbott was one of Howards jack boot wearing front row, dirt, gutter tactics were the order of the day from the minute Rudd took over the Labor leadership. These days he has taken on the appearance of an escapee from a wax museum, with a frozen jaw. He is a sly, sneaky wimpish type who attempts to give the impression of a saint in waiting. He has form people, merely cast your memory back to 2007. he was a member of the Coalition dirty tricks team led by Minchin. There wasn’t a candidate for sainthood among them.

15. Turnbull’s starting to remind me slightly of El Cid.

    For the youngsters among youse our there who didn’t see the film, or the history illiterates, El Cid was a Spanish historical figure who, after he died, had his dead body strapped onto his horse to frighten the other side into surrendering. Turnbull’s saddled up, but whether he’ll frighten anything but his own side is another matter.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_cid

    We all know he won’t shut up. He’ll want to try again, in a vain attempt to prove he was always right. Admitting error is not in his makeup. In fact it doesn’t seem to be in the Coalition’s make up lately. They think they can run any line at all – e.g. “The fake email is Swan’s fault because it came from Treasury” – and get the public to accept it. No-one knows this more than Malcolm Turnbull himself, so I think he’ll up stumps and leave them all to squabble over the scraps Rudd leaves them to chew on.

    Joe Hockey is actually one of the worst offenders at the outrageous pronouncement that’s meant to be taken seriously, so why they’re thinking of putting him up for Leader, heaven knows. It’s a cast iron admission they have no-one left. They’re still mired in the past trying to prove they were right all along, way back from Howard’s time. History, in their minds, is a process whereby the story is written by them and then rewritten by them to prove they were always right. The public grows bored with this after a while.

    For Labor’s part, Albo’s citation of Latham was brilliant in that it put the Ghost Of Mark Latham to rest, at last. It was Labor’s final admission that they got it terribly wrong in putting Latho up for PM. This can only go down well with the electorate, right or wrong (Latham did have some good points). But the RW commentators and many of the bloggers couldn’t understand it. They were full of condemnation about it. They thought it was hypocrisy on Labor’s part to admit a mistake. It was actually very, very good sense, introduced at exactly the right time.

    But the Coalition’s biggest mistake, born of the Divine Right To Rule they assume is theirs and theirs only, is the thought that they could knock off an entire government with a silver bullet, much less a faked one. Until they realise there’s no silver bullet, and that they need to do the hard yards, first of clearing out the deadwood from Howard’s time, and then of the development of a policy platform that actually recognizes what the public at large wants (and not just the Ackerlytes’ wet dreams) they’re there in opposition for a long time. I couldn’t be happier for them to maintain the delusion that Rudd is Humpty Dumpty just waiting to topple off the wall, but that’s just me.

    But back to Turnbull… Turnbull has the reputation of being a sticker, but I think even he will realise the game’s up and that being PM is just a bridge too far for him. Far from being sacked, I would not be surprised if Turnbull walked. He can’t get any discipline happening, can’t even organise a simple vote or minor policy position without dissent. He can disappear to Tuscany or wherever and convince himself that the bad dream never happened, like Costello seems to have finally done. The cold sweats will stop after a while and Rainmaker can enjoy his millions in peace. He’s a barrister, and they know full well you can’t win them all. You couldn’t be a barrister and survive otherwise. They have to be able to go off to an expensive dinner at the Rock Pool in clear conscience (or perhaps without conscience is a better way of putting it) while their client enjoys his first night of spooning porridge and keeping a wall behind him always. Further, barristers have to have the gall to send a large bill for losing the case. After all, life goes on.

    So, BB’s prediction, you read it here first: Turnbull to resign and then leave politics, before the next election.

16. I just had a look at a piece in the OO re Rudd and I reckon one comment sums up the MSM perfectly with their inability to put Rudd into their own little box.

    [Can journalists and academics no longer cope with complex, intelligent individuals? Can they cope only with those they can stereotype / classify?.
    Journos and academics who attribute Rudd’s changing personæ to “spin” or “post-moderniam” may, in fact, be ignoring the liberating effects of 1970s less restrictive education – especially in Queensland, which abolished public exams (last held 1972) – and the freer atmosphere of state high schools (in this case, a SHS which combined beach kids, farm kids and small sugar-town kids) which do not share private schools’ “Our job is to mould you into our preferred shape” mantra. Rudd may simply be a man who wasn’t “moulded” to someone else’s design, 5. Queenslanders are perplexed by opinionistas’ inability to “read” Rudd, when some thorough homework in the Sunshine State would have shown the many facets of the farm boy, to car-sleeper, to SHS dux and ANU Hons, to diplomat, to Public Service hatchet man, to the scared husband who accompanied his wife to a bank meeting to ask for a $10,000 loan to start her business, to supportive husband of a successful entrepreneur, to awkward politician, to “Sunrise” performer, to PM. 6. That inability to read Rudd might owe more to media stereotyping and academic paradigming than to “chameleon” Prime Ministerial “spin”.]

17. Looks like Piers was right on the money with his brilliant column yesterday. 😛

    [“THOSE who claim utegate or mategate has cut off Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull at the knees are indulging their fantasies. The last weeks of the winter session have been more damaging to the Rudd Labor Government than the Coalition, no matter how you slice it.”]

    Even Bolt has said “Just a couple of weeks after Peter Costello says he’ll quit, Malcolm Turnbull is finished, too. “

18. Sounds like a load of rot to me…

19. ltep

    He’s finished politically. His approval ratings show that. Just look at SA where the exact same thing happened to MHS. There’s no way he will quit and I’m not sure his party will force him out because of the lack of a viable successor, except Cossie who must be having a good laugh ATM.

20. [The last weeks of the winter session have been more damaging to the Rudd Labor Government than the Coalition, no matter how you slice it.” ]

    When ever I slice an article by Piers, all I get is heaps of congealed fat and loads of stinky gases.
    eewww

21. Nice description of Hockey from Pies’ blog:

    [Joe Hockey. The heaviest lightweight in parliament! A man who equates the volume of his voice with the level of truth contained. A “Mr Soundbite” who thinks a 10-second trite quip at a doorstop interview is real opposition.
    Then there is… wait on, thats about it…

    Basher of Winston Hills]

    Keep bashing, Basher.

    The latest page also contains this wonderful couplet of ripostes from Pies:

    [Basher, Liberals aren’t as weak as Labor supporters, they know some pain is necessary. No pain, no gain.
    …
    Robert Thomas may have his reasons for hoping Turnbull survive’s but I am merely taking the longer view of the political scene, not the short view which captivates the “me” generation.]

    The “Me Generation” would presumably include “senior Liberal Party sources” quoted widely today, those who know there’s no gain without pain, who say Turnbull’s toast?

22. [El Cid was a Spanish historical figure who, after he died, had his dead body strapped onto his horse to frighten the other side into surrendering. ]

    He gave these instructions after he was dead?

23. Why do Sky bother with these polls lol
    Last week
    Who do you believe on utegate
    Rudd 29
    Turnbull 71
    (or there abouts)

    Todays poll
    Who do you prefer as leader of Libs
    Turnbull 37
    Abbott 10
    Hockey 21
    Oother 32

    I’ll have $10 on Other 🙂

24. This week, Turnbull has revealed himself as a bad politician, but his self-confidence and his bully-boy style is perfect for party back room brawling and number crunching.

    While he can’t bully the voters, you watch him make certain his own survival – this is what Turnbull is really good at.

    You can bet that Mr Turnbull does not fail. Any way you look at this, Turnbull will stay as leader – he will ensure it. He’s no Dr Nelson – he’s no locum.

25. [You can bet that Mr Turnbull does not fail. Any way you look at this, Turnbull will stay as leader – he will ensure it. He’s no Dr Nelson – he’s no locum.]

    Can’t agree. Turnbull knows the game’s up. He’ll fall on his sword, making brave noises about “the good of the party” and leave for Tuscany.

    [He gave these instructions after he was dead?]

    Pedant.

26. It is funny to reflect on MT’s big gamble.
    His best case scenario:
    PM: Gillard
    Treasurer: Tanner

27. Diogenes, my ‘load of rot’ comment was directed at BH’s post right above yours.

28. Re Kit at 119 on Malcolm Turnbull being a bad politican.

    The next times the libs consider a member for Wentworth for leader, they should consider the track record ain’t too good. John Hewson was also a bad politician.

29. Bushfire Bill @110

    One of your best!

30. These polls are clearly telling the Libs to get rid of Turnbull.

    However, the Libs are facing Hobson’s choice dilemma. Do they change their leader now in the wake of these frightening poll figures or do they wait until the outcome of the AFP and AG investigations?

    Allowing Turnbull to struggle on like a wounded elephant might buy them some time However, the continued alienation of the electorate could see their core voter support under threat. On the other hand, passing over to the next in line carries risks as well. (Inexperience, no credibility, how to energise a dispirited party etc). Of course the Libs have the added worry that whomever they choose could become further implicated in the various investigations which would be even more disastrous.

    Given this is the Party of people incapable of making a decison about Howard’s future and who have also managed to throttle the really credible leadership alternative of Peter Costello, then it’s likely they’ll assume the foetal position and start calling out for their “mummy” before making any decison.

31. SA have decided to beat the rush:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25705810-2702,00.html

32. I think predicitons of Turnbull’s demise are a bit premature.

    The newspoll 2PP was 58/42 throughout April.

    This one is 56/44 –

33. Things looking grim for Turnbull, Abbott is said he is safe.

    Turnbull safe despite polls: Abbott
    http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?ATL://1246232317097&section=latest&title=Turnbull+safe+despite+polls%3a+Abbott

34. Turnbull won’t recover. More people that were giving him the benefit of the doubt will now gradually move away. Nothing succeeds like success and Rudd Labors success is a meme people will be attracted to just as the meme of Turnbull Coallition failure under attack meme can become ingrained.

35. whomever they choose could become further implicated in the various investigations which would be even more disastrous

    This will keep MT safe for now because if they really do have something terminal to hide then he would be required to take the fall. My guess is he won’t be going away anytime soon, I’m sure they will have worked out the right amount of “denial and spin” to dodge the bullet.

    I would also expect the polls will move up again for MT unless …..

36. I think that Cleary should run in Wills not Brunswick because the demographics are better for him in the northern half of the electorate.

37. Oops 🙁

38. People thinking you are a bit of nerd, nong or weirdo is one thing but people not trusting you is fatal, it means your messages will always be filtered through scepticism.

39. If the Libs do decide to give Turnbull the flick (or if he goes of is own volition) they have a very difficult situation – who could bring it up to the Government in Parliament and to the voters at election time?
    Looking at the Opposition’s front bench there is a pretty sorry sight.

    Turnbull – obviously in a lot of trouble
    Bishop – no threat and she’s somewhat already yesterday’s woman
    Truss – an easy target (e.g. regional rorts)
    Robb – has a low profile and would not command interest from the electorate – although he is an experienced tactician
    Hockey – a mile wide and an inch deep – populism only goes so far
    Hunt – still has his training wheels on (and he has an irritating voice like Pyne)
    Pyne – has a very high annoyance factor
    Cobb, Keenan, Stone, Ciobo – no recognition factor at the moment
    Outer Shadow Ministry – nothing much there either

    So what do they do?

40. [I think predicitons of Turnbull’s demise are a bit premature.

    The newspoll 2PP was 58/42 throughout April.

    This one is 56/44]

    I’m sure the Libs will be ecstatic at their progress! The fact that their leader has taken such a huge knock in popularity will be even more lovely for them.

41. [51 per cent “believed Mr Turnbull had been dishonest or somewhat deceitful”.]

    In the Australian polity, you just don’t recover from that.

42. Trubbell at Mill, I believe that howard won two elections (2001 and 2004) after the “mean and tricky” assessment.

43. How long before the Nats pull out of the Coalition?

44. 138

    The Nats pulling out of the Coalition would be complicated by the LNP.

45. [How long before the Nats pull out of the Coalition?]

    They won’t.

46. Barnaby Joyce – leader of the opposition

47. ltep,

    The Nats already dislike Turnbull. Why should they sacrifice their brand to stay associated with the Libs atm. In the Senate, they could probably achieve more for their constituency by voting independantly of the Libs.

    I would be interested in your counter arguments.

48. They’ve become far too complacent and lazy after years of having to do nothing much at all.

    As far as the Senate goes, I imagine Barnaby will make sure the Nats do what they please.

    There will be rumblings from certain Libs (Heffernan, Schultz etc.) to end the Coalition deal but it will end in nothing happening.

    The only time I can imagine something changing would be if Joyce makes the move to the lower house.

49. [Trubbell at Mill, I believe that howard won two elections (2001 and 2004) after the “mean and tricky” assessment.
    ]

    9/11 & Latham may have helped. He was the ‘mean and tricky’ they knew.

50. [Trubbell at Mill, I believe that howard won two elections (2001 and 2004) after the “mean and tricky” assessment.]

    As others have mentioned a lack of credible Labor leader and a bit of a scare campaign allowed Howard to win those 2 elections. May have been different in 2004 if Rudd had been ready to challenge for leadership then.

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