An unprecedented triple whammy of opinion polls is disastrous enough for the Coalition to lend force to Dennis Shanahan‘s assertion that “Malcolm Turnbull’s political career has been smashed in just one week”. In turn:
• Arriving a day earlier than usual, Newspoll shows that the Coalition recovery detected a fortnight ago has come to a sudden end, with Labor’s lead back out from 53-47 to 56-44. The parties have also exchanged three points on the primary vote, Labor up to 44 per cent and the Coalition down to 37 per cent. However, the real shock is that Turnbull’s personal ratings have suffered what Shanahan calls “the single biggest fall in the survey’s 25-year history”: his approval rating has plunged from 44 per cent to 25 per cent, while his disapproval is up from 37 per cent to 58 per cent. Fifty-two per cent do not believe that John Grant received preferential treatment from the Prime Minister against only 24 per cent who do. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 57-25 to 65-18.
• ACNielsen, which is hopefully back to monthly polling as we enter the second half of the term, has Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 46 per cent while the Coalition’s is down six to 37 per cent. Fifty-three per cent say the OzCar affair has left them with a less favourable impression of Malcolm Turnbull, whose approval is down 11 points to 32 per cent with his disapproval has shot up 13 points to 60 per cent. Turnbull comes third as preferred Liberal leader with 18 per cent, behind Peter Costello on 37 per cent and Joe Hockey on 21 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 64-28 to 66-25, and his approval rating is up three points to 67 per cent.
• Galaxy has Labor’s primary vote up a point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s down two to 30 per cent. Sixty-one per cent believe Kevin Rudd has been open and honest about the OzCar affair, while 51 per cent “believed Mr Turnbull had been dishonest or somewhat deceitful”.
Once again, Victoria dominates the latest round of electoral news:
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has tabled two major reports which I haven’t got round to sinking my teeth into: the regular conduct of the federal election report, and that into the Commwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that complicated quarreling in the Victorian ALP has thrown up “rogue challengers” against at least ten state MPs. Keilor MP George Seitz, who faces enforced retirement in the wake of the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council, is said to be largely reponsible: Andrew Landeryou at VexNews identifies his state nominees as Tomislav Tomic (against Bundoora MP Colin Brooks), Seeralan Arumugam Gunaratnam (Carrum MP Jenny Lindell), Raymond Congreve (Lara MP John Eren), Rosa Mitrevski (Mill Park MP Lily D’Ambrosio), Philip Cassar (Mordialloc MP Janice Munt), Teodoro Tuason (Narre Warren North MP Luke Donnellan), Teresa Kiselis and Mate Barun (both taking on Northcote MP Fiona Richardson), Josefina Agustin (Prahran MP Tony Lupton), and Blagoja Bozinovski (Thomastown MP Peter Batchelor). For good measure, Seitz candidate Manfred Kriechbaum is taking on federal MP Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell. Other challengers are explained by Wallace in terms the “stability pact” forged between the Left and the Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and Steven Conroy, and counter-moves by rival Right unions seeking to forge ties with some of the more militant unions of the Left. This presumably accounts for Australian Manufacturing Workers Union candidate Andrew Richards joining the aforementioned Kriechbaum in a three-horse race against Vamvakinou in Calwell, Lisa Zanatta of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union challenging Lynne Kosky in Altona, and Kathleen Matthews-Ward of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association joining the Seitz challengers to Fiona Richardson in Northcote. The option of referring preselections to the party’s national executive remains available to John Brumby, who must be sorely tempted.
• Other challenges appear more obscure. A third Labor Unity candidate, Rick Garotti, is listed as a nominee against incumbent Craig Langdon in Ivanoe, in addition to the previously discussed Anthony Carbines. In Preston, Labor Unity MP Robin Scott is being challenged by Moreland councillor Anthony Helou (once of the Socialist Left, but more recently of Labor Unity) and Tamer Kairouz, said by Landeryou to be backed by upper house MP Nazih Elasmar, a principal of a Right sub-faction also linked with Theo Theophanous (not sure if any relation to Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz). Two Socialist Left members are under challenge from factional colleagues, which Andrew Landeryou suggests can be put down to dealings between the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and unions on the Right: Yuroke MP Liz Beattie faces a challenge from Colleen Gibbs, an official with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, while Darebin councillor Timothy Laurence has nominated against Steve Herbert in Eltham. Andrew Lappos, who in the past has been associated with the Left, is listed as a challenger to the Right’s Telmo Languiller in Derrimut, but it was reported last week that Languiller’s preselection had been secured by the national executive.
• The preselection contest for Brunswick has taken on new significance with the news that Phil Cleary will contest the seat as an independent. Cleary defeated the Labor candidate in the federal seat of Wills in the 1992 by-election that followed Bob Hawke’s retirement and was narrowly re-elected in 1993, before losing to Labor’s Kelvin Thomson in 1996. He has more recently worked for the Electrical Trades Union, which under the leadership of Dean Mighell has disaffiliated with the ALP and given support to the Greens. Three candidates are listed for Labor preselection, each a colleague of outgoing member Carlo Carli in the Socialist Left: Jane Garrett, Slater and Gordon lawyer and former adviser to Steve Bracks; Enver Erdogan, 23-year-old Moreland councillor and staffer to House of Represenatatives Speaker Harry Jenkins, said to be aligned with the Kim Carr sub-faction; and Alice Pryor, also a Moreland councillor, aligned with the rival Left sub-faction associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin. Former party state secretary Eric Locke has proved a non-starter; Andrew Landeryou reports he has withdrawn in favour of Garrett, who would appear to be the front-runner. According to David Rood of The Age, Garrett also has the backing of John Brumby.
• Andrew Landeryou further reports that National Union of Workers state secretary Antony Thow has been “elected unopposed” for the third position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket. If that means what it appears to, it’s a significant story the mainstream media appears to have ignored, as Labor would seem very likely on current form to repeat its 2007 election feat of winning a third seat.
• The Moonee Valley Community News reports it is “not expected” that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will be opposed in the Labor preselection for Essendon, to which the party has assigned him so sitting member South Eastern Metropolitan MLC Bob Smith can be given a safer seat in Western Metropolitan. Mark Kennedy, a former mayor of Moonee Valley, was earlier reported to have ambitions to replace the retiring Judy Maddigan.
• Federal Liberal MP Chris Pearce has announced he will not seek re-election in his Melbourne seat of Aston. Pearce gave his party a morale-boosting by-election win in the seat in July 2001, limiting the Labor swing to 3.7 per cent – which has since stood as exhibit A in the case that the Howard government’s re-election the following November could not entirely be put down to the subsequent Tampa episode and September 11. He was closely associated throughout his time in politics with Peter Costello, and the fact and timing of his departure have inevitably been linked to Costello’s shock announcement early last week. No discussion yet that I’m aware of as to who might replace him. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that “another swathe of resignations” from federal Liberals is expected when New South Wales and Queensland redistributions are finalised early next year, although no names are named.
• The ABC reports that three Western Australian state Labor MPs, headed by the factionally unaligned Alannah MacTiernan, have moved at state conference for preselection reforms allowing “compulsory secret ballots for preselections, with delegates completing their own papers”.
Squig, you’d have a go at selling ice to the Eskimos I reckon.
Conceded, TP, but my point was that, with the right circumstances, a polly can recover from an assessment by the public of dodginess. And I didn’t even mention the ‘non-core promise’
Howard and Menzies learnt from their mistakes to come back in triumph. Turnbull has the raw talent to do this but does he have the determination to accept the humiliations that lie ahead?
Kit:
Yes, but that wasn’t an assessment of Howard. If you remember, Howard leaked Stone’s memo precisely because it had been worded, with the rodent’s connivance, to finger Costello as being the ‘mean and tricky’ one.
Kit I don’t think Howard did recover from that “mean and tricky” perception.
I think the voters knew he would go too far one day and they were just waiting for a chance to belt him – it took Labor leadership change and the right strategy to get him on workchoices and a few other things.
Howard is still considered to be mean and tricky, even by people who voted for him. He will never lose that.
Geoff Robinson, my point exactly, I think that Turnbull is fueled by his belief in his own ability to counter and destroy any attempt at his humiliation. This sort of environment (when his back is against the wall) is what makes him thrive.
Sorry Squiggly but you’re starting to sound like a drowning man now.
Dare I say shades of Shanahan and Preferred PM debate? That feather dance didn’t seem to draw many wolf whistles either…
Dave @ 108
Sheehan has it wrong again, of course. It isn’t hyenas going after Turnball, it’s vultures.
Peter Sandman 2004 Conference Transcript -Boston College Center for Corporate Citizenship Conference http://www.bcccc.net/index.cfm?fuseaction=page.viewPage&PageID=979
In this speech, Sandman (of ‘Risk = Hazard + Outrage’ fame) discusses why being loved may not bring any benefit, and may have a downside, but being hated is a real cost, and has no upside. He is, of course, talking about corporations, but it could just as easily be applied to politicians.
Good point, but Howard still won two elections. And, over time, I reckon Turnbull will be able to turn that sort of perception around, while Howard’s actions and manner only confirmed it.
Move on, Turnbull is finished, so says His Master’s voice.
http://www.thepunch.com.au/
Dont laugh, this is serious:
Thansk GB, nice to be known for something
Nelson, Crean, & Beazley were all moved on after a prolonged period of poor satisfaction/PPM scores.
That hasn’t happend to MT yet. I’d need to see today’s numbers sustained before thinking he is on his way out.
I think an added problem with Turnbull is that he also comes over too aggressive with a hint of violence. Nobody ever saw Howard that way. He was clever and tricky accountant. Or as one lady here said of him at the time…he is just a nice old man.
Diog I wish someone would ask Piers next time he is on insiders about how much todays polls reflect his comments yesterday….I cant believe this bloke is actually employed as a commentator. My cat would have interpreted last weeks events more accurately than he.
Turnbull will survive because Hockey can see the writing on the wall for the next election, and wont challenge. The best outcome for Labor is a damaged Turnbull stays. Of course, the next round of polls will no doubt be heralded as a major comeback for Turnbull as he is coming off such a low base with these polls.
I have heard Turnbull interviewed a no of times about the fake email and his whole defence has been that the senate commitee testimony swayed him. No one seems to have asked his opinion of Grech’s major qualifications such as “I could be totally false”, ie. he was indicating a significant degree of hesitancy and doubt. How sweet though that Turnbull’s mole has inflicted such damage on him. Karma
PBs hit Crickey’s front web page, no wonder they lap up PB posts.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/29/newspoll-56-44-acnielsen-58-42-galaxy-56-44/
The voters will stick even with a PM they don’t much like if there is no acceptable alternative. Snedden, Peacock, Howard (1st time), Crean, Latham, Hewson, Nelson, – not acceptable alternatives. Whitlam in 72, Hawke in 83, Howard in 96, Rudd in 07 – acceptable alternatives to PMs who were not much liked. Rudd is genuinely popular and respected, and Turnbull has no hope at all against him.
Hope Turnbull stays. The cartoonists are only just beginning to explore the dead cat angle.
And for the record Shanahan’s headline about Turnbull being SMASHED by the polls was more foreful that The Age’s. I wonder whether he cried into his tea as he wrote that or someone else had to write it for him??
The idea that Turnbull should stay on until the AFP and AG investigations are finalised might be a good one if they are not sure who could be in the deep stuff over it. And it is just possible some of it could be very deep.
Turnbull will stay unless the AFP investigation reveals talks between Godwin Grech and Turnbull. As I’ve said before, if it turns out that Grech showed Turnbull the email, then Turnbull is toast because Grech said he didn’t have the email in Senate estimates and Turnbull would have known that not to be true.
Kit – Turnbull is supposed to be leading the party of business but he has, in the past few months, annoyed businesses in many ways.
How embarrassing that he thought it necessary to lecture at a breakfast meeting recently about not taking his side in the CC debate.
He not only has enemies within his party – they are throughout the business community too. Car dealers, commercial property developers, exporters (his China rubbish was woeful), Banks, etc. etc.
He’s gawn even if he contests the next election as leader
Had the Senate been enlarged to 14 per state, in one go, at the 1984 election then Garret would have become a Senator in 1985.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/1984/1984senatensw.txt
Maybe Bob posts on Ackermans web site, he has said Turnbull will survive,I Piers have said so,backed up but some of the silliest reply’s I have every read,you lot though the US had a advantage in nutters I think your wrong, Ackerman has the worlds best conspiracy theorists.
In celebration of the unprecedented release of three polls we have a competition!
Who wrote:
TP107
Thanks for that photo of the Shanghai collapse. At least engineers cna point to things collapsing when they don’t have input. Unlike the economists 😉
Musrum, Machiavelli
BH 165
Agreed. I have said several times that different Libeal policy stances would harm business and I can’t see why they would possibly fund their next election campaign.
Hey, William. My post @ 92 is still in moderation. It’s only a quote which I feel would add to the discussion and would be throwing all the numbering out.
Kit: Correct! Here you go: :cookie:
I’m sure he’s very grateful now that he didn’t.
cookie emotions need to be imagined…
Socrates – agree about the funding for Libs. If Turnbull underwrites a lot of the campaign would that show up in donation list if it is paid by a Trust.
emotions == emoticons
Surely the current chaos of the libs is not only repetitive political history but also the real specific legacy of Howard “the nice old man” or dare I hope a sign of the true long term malaise of this band of opportunists who couldn’t face up to supporting a Costello leadership coup …too late now..or is it??
(haven’t been around for awhile as I’m getting more entertainment these days from Mafia Wars on Facebook; a d*** addictive game LOL)
Had to chime in today with a YIPEEE when I saw the poll results, Malcolm doesn’t have a clue at all …… and I missed KR on Rove last night too, was his piece any good? Saw story about Bruno this morning vis a vis Rudd and raised a bit of an eyebrow at that, Bruno is one weird dude ……
Juliem
Welcome back – we have certainly missed you!
yes welcome back julie. rudd as his usual dorky self- no major damage in the interview. And you know Bruno is a character dont you??
It’s all here Julie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QggLtP2yUkI
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25706369-5006301,00.html
Mmm charming.
will assume that is a youtube bit about bruno or something? guessing I don’t want to look at it LOL …..
Juliem – you missed the most interesting week ever here. These guys were brilliant and had the email declared fake by early Friday evening. Their analysis left the MSM in its wake.
A truly entertaining week on PB and today’s polls top it off. Better than any other game played I can tell you.
Forgot to mention Juliem – you would be pleased that the bill passed through the Senate for dishing repayments by refugees. Thank goodness.
Little by little Labor will bring the public along to realise that asylum seekers are not the scum of the earth but we Ozzies can be slow learners in trying to protect our WASP way of life.
If Rudd can stay in power for another term then Howard’s terrible legacy may be erased completely.
BH @ 184, I’ve followed every bit on the news believe you me 🙂 🙂 …. was thinking a fair few of our Lib regulars probably are checking themselves into the doctor for ulcer and heartburn checkups 😀
No, aside from politics though, if you’ve a FB account, go check it out (Mafia Wars) ….. you won’t regret it, at least you will have had a look 😉 …. I can tell you I would like to send my M-16’s and Humvee tanks into the Liberal party room 😉 {if I could}
So what happened with Grocery Watch?
If it can’t be done then how come Choice and the retailers now http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2610866.htm
both want to do it?
Did the government need Collies to co-operate?
Were they so threatened by it? Do they need ignorance to make a profit?
Ah, juliem! Relieved to see you back again. Have been considering asking if anyone knew where you’d got to. I even checked back for your last post (15th June, I think).
Keeping up over the last couple of weeks has been mammoth effort! I never did catch up on a dozen or so pages that appeared while I was in a meeting. That said, your insights would have been a welcome addition.
Andrew 158:
If you think of Pies, not as a commentator, but what he really is – a Liberal shill, there to push an anti-Labor, pro-Liberal argument, his counter-intuitive, hairy-chested views make perfect sense.
Juliem – I’m on dialup – in the country, up hill and down dale. No chance of checking out Mafia Wars altho I would like to and join you in driving the Humvees to Lib HQ.
Will get my kids to look at it and relay the info.
Swannies turn to win next week so I ain’t saying good luck with your team.
I just wonder why the MSM and the Liberal party can even entertain the idea that Turnbull could ever be Opp leader let alone PM as his history’ such as the HIH debarcle and the $10m Rainmaker grant, along the list previously listed on this thread. A grant to a neigbour and fund raiser for Turnbull himself, which his company donated $10,000 to the relection of Turnbull.This is much worse and not in the same league as the $20m grant to Howard’s brother’s business, as that money at least went to the workers, otherwise they would have been jobless and cashless, which made it very hard for the ALP to attack.
From the Liberals Twitter Feed 🙂
Don’t forget mannildra, the bio-fuel mob – grant money for major lib donor – and mate of howard.
Its different of course – mates only applies to labor
An updated summary of current events. Very funny.
http://bekk.blogspot.com/2009/06/utegate-as-told-by-lolcats.html