Newspoll 56-44; ACNielsen 58-42; Galaxy 56-44

An unprecedented triple whammy of opinion polls is disastrous enough for the Coalition to lend force to Dennis Shanahan‘s assertion that “Malcolm Turnbull’s political career has been smashed in just one week”. In turn:

• Arriving a day earlier than usual, Newspoll shows that the Coalition recovery detected a fortnight ago has come to a sudden end, with Labor’s lead back out from 53-47 to 56-44. The parties have also exchanged three points on the primary vote, Labor up to 44 per cent and the Coalition down to 37 per cent. However, the real shock is that Turnbull’s personal ratings have suffered what Shanahan calls “the single biggest fall in the survey’s 25-year history”: his approval rating has plunged from 44 per cent to 25 per cent, while his disapproval is up from 37 per cent to 58 per cent. Fifty-two per cent do not believe that John Grant received preferential treatment from the Prime Minister against only 24 per cent who do. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 57-25 to 65-18.

ACNielsen, which is hopefully back to monthly polling as we enter the second half of the term, has Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 46 per cent while the Coalition’s is down six to 37 per cent. Fifty-three per cent say the OzCar affair has left them with a less favourable impression of Malcolm Turnbull, whose approval is down 11 points to 32 per cent with his disapproval has shot up 13 points to 60 per cent. Turnbull comes third as preferred Liberal leader with 18 per cent, behind Peter Costello on 37 per cent and Joe Hockey on 21 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 64-28 to 66-25, and his approval rating is up three points to 67 per cent.

Galaxy has Labor’s primary vote up a point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s down two to 30 per cent. Sixty-one per cent believe Kevin Rudd has been open and honest about the OzCar affair, while 51 per cent “believed Mr Turnbull had been dishonest or somewhat deceitful”.

Once again, Victoria dominates the latest round of electoral news:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has tabled two major reports which I haven’t got round to sinking my teeth into: the regular conduct of the federal election report, and that into the Commwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008.

Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that complicated quarreling in the Victorian ALP has thrown up “rogue challengers” against at least ten state MPs. Keilor MP George Seitz, who faces enforced retirement in the wake of the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council, is said to be largely reponsible: Andrew Landeryou at VexNews identifies his state nominees as Tomislav Tomic (against Bundoora MP Colin Brooks), Seeralan Arumugam Gunaratnam (Carrum MP Jenny Lindell), Raymond Congreve (Lara MP John Eren), Rosa Mitrevski (Mill Park MP Lily D’Ambrosio), Philip Cassar (Mordialloc MP Janice Munt), Teodoro Tuason (Narre Warren North MP Luke Donnellan), Teresa Kiselis and Mate Barun (both taking on Northcote MP Fiona Richardson), Josefina Agustin (Prahran MP Tony Lupton), and Blagoja Bozinovski (Thomastown MP Peter Batchelor). For good measure, Seitz candidate Manfred Kriechbaum is taking on federal MP Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell. Other challengers are explained by Wallace in terms the “stability pact” forged between the Left and the Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and Steven Conroy, and counter-moves by rival Right unions seeking to forge ties with some of the more militant unions of the Left. This presumably accounts for Australian Manufacturing Workers Union candidate Andrew Richards joining the aforementioned Kriechbaum in a three-horse race against Vamvakinou in Calwell, Lisa Zanatta of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union challenging Lynne Kosky in Altona, and Kathleen Matthews-Ward of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association joining the Seitz challengers to Fiona Richardson in Northcote. The option of referring preselections to the party’s national executive remains available to John Brumby, who must be sorely tempted.

• Other challenges appear more obscure. A third Labor Unity candidate, Rick Garotti, is listed as a nominee against incumbent Craig Langdon in Ivanoe, in addition to the previously discussed Anthony Carbines. In Preston, Labor Unity MP Robin Scott is being challenged by Moreland councillor Anthony Helou (once of the Socialist Left, but more recently of Labor Unity) and Tamer Kairouz, said by Landeryou to be backed by upper house MP Nazih Elasmar, a principal of a Right sub-faction also linked with Theo Theophanous (not sure if any relation to Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz). Two Socialist Left members are under challenge from factional colleagues, which Andrew Landeryou suggests can be put down to dealings between the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and unions on the Right: Yuroke MP Liz Beattie faces a challenge from Colleen Gibbs, an official with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, while Darebin councillor Timothy Laurence has nominated against Steve Herbert in Eltham. Andrew Lappos, who in the past has been associated with the Left, is listed as a challenger to the Right’s Telmo Languiller in Derrimut, but it was reported last week that Languiller’s preselection had been secured by the national executive.

• The preselection contest for Brunswick has taken on new significance with the news that Phil Cleary will contest the seat as an independent. Cleary defeated the Labor candidate in the federal seat of Wills in the 1992 by-election that followed Bob Hawke’s retirement and was narrowly re-elected in 1993, before losing to Labor’s Kelvin Thomson in 1996. He has more recently worked for the Electrical Trades Union, which under the leadership of Dean Mighell has disaffiliated with the ALP and given support to the Greens. Three candidates are listed for Labor preselection, each a colleague of outgoing member Carlo Carli in the Socialist Left: Jane Garrett, Slater and Gordon lawyer and former adviser to Steve Bracks; Enver Erdogan, 23-year-old Moreland councillor and staffer to House of Represenatatives Speaker Harry Jenkins, said to be aligned with the Kim Carr sub-faction; and Alice Pryor, also a Moreland councillor, aligned with the rival Left sub-faction associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin. Former party state secretary Eric Locke has proved a non-starter; Andrew Landeryou reports he has withdrawn in favour of Garrett, who would appear to be the front-runner. According to David Rood of The Age, Garrett also has the backing of John Brumby.

• Andrew Landeryou further reports that National Union of Workers state secretary Antony Thow has been “elected unopposed” for the third position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket. If that means what it appears to, it’s a significant story the mainstream media appears to have ignored, as Labor would seem very likely on current form to repeat its 2007 election feat of winning a third seat.

• The Moonee Valley Community News reports it is “not expected” that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will be opposed in the Labor preselection for Essendon, to which the party has assigned him so sitting member South Eastern Metropolitan MLC Bob Smith can be given a safer seat in Western Metropolitan. Mark Kennedy, a former mayor of Moonee Valley, was earlier reported to have ambitions to replace the retiring Judy Maddigan.

• Federal Liberal MP Chris Pearce has announced he will not seek re-election in his Melbourne seat of Aston. Pearce gave his party a morale-boosting by-election win in the seat in July 2001, limiting the Labor swing to 3.7 per cent – which has since stood as exhibit A in the case that the Howard government’s re-election the following November could not entirely be put down to the subsequent Tampa episode and September 11. He was closely associated throughout his time in politics with Peter Costello, and the fact and timing of his departure have inevitably been linked to Costello’s shock announcement early last week. No discussion yet that I’m aware of as to who might replace him. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that “another swathe of resignations” from federal Liberals is expected when New South Wales and Queensland redistributions are finalised early next year, although no names are named.

• The ABC reports that three Western Australian state Labor MPs, headed by the factionally unaligned Alannah MacTiernan, have moved at state conference for preselection reforms allowing “compulsory secret ballots for preselections, with delegates completing their own papers”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,641 comments on “Newspoll 56-44; ACNielsen 58-42; Galaxy 56-44”

Comments Page 1 of 33
1 2 33
  1. The Libs need to avoid Monty Burns leaders. Perhaps Bishop (the better Bishop) could take the helm. What about an Abbott/Bishop combo? That would give the cartoonists some fun.

  2. Nup. BB. Stay with the movies. The endings work, more or less.

    I would have posted this in the SA thing. But.

    If Nicole Cornes had the opportunity to stand again in Boothby or somewhere, she would rock in. Nicole would save the Libs in SA, if she could bear to do it.

    She is truly talented, smart, and so.

    Not to mention rather gorgeous to look at. Which does not count, of course.

  3. Milne’s saying that journalists are apprehensive about email public servants after the AFP got involved in Utegate, and that – shock horror – a commentator was punished for being anti-Rudd. Poor diddums. He should have thought of that when he became one of the Libs’ most rampant yodellers, and accepted at face value peddled falsehoods spread deliberately to bring down the government on a tissue of lies. Did he really expect a mere inter-departmental inquiry? If that’s all Rudd had done Milne would have been screaming from the rooftops that Rudd had something to hide.

    Poor darling, he’s just seen off his hero Costello, and now the new crush, Turnbull, is about to get the chop. Still fighting? Held his ground? I know it’s trite, but that Monty Ptyhon knight is the perfect metaphor for Turnbull over the past week.

    The reason they think they can say anything, do anything, forge any lie, peddle any fake document, bring down a government on a technical matter of parliamentary procedure is that they still don’t get that they lost the last election. They seem to genuinely believe the public is on a knife’s edge waiting for a decent excuse to cover their mass desertion of Labor, and come running back to the Coalition. There’s years in this delusion for Labor if they play their cards right.

  4. So I think that we can use the Newspoll figures released so far to deduce that when the full primaries are published we will get:
    ALP 44, Lib 33, NP 4, Green 11 and Others 8

    which means no increase for the minor parties despite all the mud being flung about.

  5. [Nup. BB. Stay with the movies. The endings work, more or less.]

    Doubt was really about nothing much at all, but they all did it so well. Alien v. Predator – Resurrection was quite scary but ultimately forgettable in that “I’m still glad I saw it” sort of way. The wife nearly fled to bed two or three times, and it did look gorgeous on the Big Screen we have (as did Doubt).

    All in all a good night’s entertainment with the icing on the cake after when I read the results of all three polls.

    I’m still not sure whether I’m dreaming, though. Are they actually seriously thinking of putting Hockey in as leader? He’s a dill!

  6. Newspoll shows a steady non-major party total but we are yet to see if there is any movement between Greens and ‘Other’ in either direction.
    ACNielsen shows a 4% increase in combined Greens/Other with further break down yet to be released I think.
    Galaxy shows a 1% increase in combined Greens/Other with further break down yet to be released I think.
    This averages out to a 1.666% increase in the combined Greens/Other vote across the three polls. Well within the margin of error but overall it suggests that there has been a small – very small – move away from the major parties.

  7. It’s a little bit disappointing to see a lack of serious challenges to clear out the deadwood in the Vic parliament. Several of the MPs targeted by Seitz really deserve to go, but are only being challenged by nonentities. One can only hope that the woman challenging hopeless fool Kosky might have a bit of luck, but alas I doubt it.

    I think all the guff about Cleary in Brunswick is a bit of a beatup. He was well-known fifteen years ago, and he’s faded well out of the limelight since then. I doubt he’ll top five percent, most of which will be would-be Green primaries that’ll come back on preferences.

  8. BB
    Look at that polling – they simply cannot continue with Turnbull. Therefore they need someone else. Robb = Monty Burns, Abbott = his namesake: very religious + he puts off a lot of people, Costello has departed, Bishop had enough trouble getting support as treasury spokeperson let alone leader (but apart from that she could be okay), no way they can make a National the COALition leader in the current climate, Hockey therefore wins by default. Besides he does have some charactor.

  9. Doubt it really, BB.

    Would the Libs have the courage to ditch their only viable player?

    I reckon they lack the guts to remove Malcolm, which gives them nowhere to go.

    Now and into the next election.

    And, I have to say, I have a perfect 8 in the footy tipping this weekend.

  10. Once the ball of leadership speculation starts rolling the leader tends to go in the end (with plenty of exceptions though). Even if they stick with Turnbull at the next sitting, that is no guarantee that he won’t get the boot early in the new year etc. Don’t get me wrong, I prefer Turnbull to almost every Lib coz he comes across as somewhat moderate but don’t forget that he only narrowly won the leadership vote last time.
    Politics is sometimes like any number of boardgames, for example Monopoly: once you are in a bad spot circumstances inevitably lead you to an even worse situation. Turnbull has the waterworks (and a rain-making machine like from the videoclip for the song ‘running up that hill’) but thats about it – for now Rudd has both Mayfair and Park Lane – and Brown, though on the verge of bankruptcy ( 😉 ) has a lot assetts such as the green properties.

  11. The nonsense pedaled by papers and Liberal hacks most of last week about the Liberals having a watertight case against Swan seems to have taken a nasty hit from the voters too, seeing few believe Grant got any preferential treatment.

    [But the biggest problem for Mr Turnbull is the fall in voter satisfaction with the way he is doing is job — from 44 per cent two weeks ago to just 25 per cent last weekend, while dissatisfaction rose 21 points to 58 per cent.

    This is the single biggest fall in voter satisfaction for an opposition leader in Newspoll history and puts Mr Turnbull at the same low level as Kim Beazley and Dr Nelson when they lost their party’s leadership to Mr Rudd and Mr Turnbull respectively.

    The Newspoll also showed that voters, by a ratio of 2:1, did not believe Brisbane car dealer John Grant received preferential treatment because of his friendship with the Prime Minister.

    A total of 52 per cent of those surveyed said they did not believe Mr Turnbull’s claims, while only 24 per cent said they thought they were true. Of Coalition supporters, 29 per cent said they did not think Mr Turnbull’s claims were true].

  12. gee, why cant u have a quiet good night sleep anymore.

    The moral of the story is simple, the punters see bully with the fake email and then demand the pm to resign. Happy days ahead.

  13. What is the point of letting Turnbull reshuffle the frontbench when there is no reason to even consider him a leader by any known definition?

  14. I have to admit I never thought the poll reaction to the whole thing would be so significant. I think it’s hard to argue that the changes in Turnbull’s ratings are anything else.

    It’ll certainly be tempting for many in the Coalition to start to look to a new leader. I get the feeling they won’t though.

  15. Holy shit…
    Holy shit. I don’t think there could be a worse set of numbers in one day for one person. Turnbull must be bloody glad that parliament is not sitting this week.

  16. Re Pembroke election in Tasmania – Vanessa Goodwin is standing for the Liberals and has an excellent chance of getting in. This could be the end of the Bartlett Government.

    Sorry to be OT William.

  17. Ahh What a grand way to start the new week.

    A big thank you to turnbull, hockey and co for making it so. Also to howard for making sure the libs next best prospect left politics.

    The beauty about it all is that most of the damage was inflicted by the libs on themselves.

    The bonus is the hacks at limited news are damned as well by their own poll results.

    And our kevin comes out of it all smelling like a rose. He is on the front foot having outclassed the libs on the economy.

    Libs go ahead and block any senate bills you like. Bring it on !

  18. [Cosssssie, please come back,]

    He would if he thought that they had a good chance at the next election.

    News article notes of Turnbull that his figures were worse than Lathams,
    “madder than Mark?”

  19. This is really pathetic from Milne, if he can go anymore pathetic. What about the shameful act of having Steve Lewis on the show’s interviewing panel, not a single mention. I think the MSM overall should be ashamed of themselves over this episode.

    They really do treat the punters with utter contempt.

    Thanks God we dont have to rely on the letters to the editor anymore. Long Live Blogging.

    [Which brings us to the Ten Network’s Meet the Press program. The Liberal Party was convulsing yesterday over Turnbull’s decision to go on the Sunday morning talk show. The repeated question was simply: “Why?”

    For a start, Tony Abbott was over on the ABC’s Insiders, maintaining the assault on Wayne Swan over OzCar. The unstated rule is leaders should only submit themselves to these programs when they have something to say. And when they do, all other airwaves should be cleared of competing voices.

    The media cycle had already given Turnbull a reprieve. Michael Jackson’s death was a godsend. In a media sense it should have put an abrupt end to the Coalition’s public haemorrhaging, allowing them to regroup and get back to talking about debt and deficit.

    Instead Turnbull went on Meet the Press. To say what exactly? Sure, the Opposition Leader must have drawn some comfort from commentary at the week’s end that gave him points for remaining standing, let alone swinging. But absent some new avenue of attack on Swan, Turnbull would have been better off staying in bed yesterday morning. ],25197,25703955-33435,00.html

  20. Like I said, Rudd was only identifying himself as the victim in Turnbulls email folly, nothing to do with ‘expectation management’. And we haven’t got the results of the AG/AFP investigation yet. Now THAT will be interesting 🙂


  21. Are you all ready for this?

    I admit I was wrong. Turnbull indeed has stuffed up that bad.

    There wasn’t a huge swing, it’s just back to the numbers that the parties were on prior to the real narrowing, but a swing is still a swing.

    There – i admitted i was wrong – which is more than can be said for some others on here 😉

  22. Bob1234, nice bit of trolling.

    What are the odds of the Libs replacing Turnbull with a new leader only to have to replace said new leader because the AG/AFP investigation implcates said new leader in illegal activities?


  23. Of course the worst may yet be to come.

    Who knows what the federal police will turn up or what GG has told them ??

    Who else will be implicated…

  24. I thought it would be max 58, ACNielson nearly made me wrong, Turnbull is still as popular as all their other options, he will survive. The only hope the Liberal party has is to select young moderates ( preferable not lawyers) for their safe seats. All of the current front bench are very unlikely to be ministers again. The sooner they face that reality and get on with it, the better for the party, and as the system works better with a viable opposition, the country.

  25. The libs will replace turnbull with hockey. The gov will call a DD election for November after the ETS bill goes down. That will be my call. They will have to move quickly to replace turnbull to give Hockey the chance to pick up the outer suburbinite slob vote.

  26. Well that was an interesting old week in politics 🙂

    Hockey is the obvious next choice, although he is a lightweight (politically) and way too tied up in the AFP inquiry. Can the Libs wait and see which way that goes or do they change now and then have to change again before the election???

    There is just no one there, they might as well stick with Turnbull and cop the loss.

  27. Perhaps a moment from the Bard

    “Caesar beware of Brutus; take heed of Cassius;come not near Casca;have an eye to Cinna;mark well Metellus Cimber;Decius Brutus loves thee not; thou hast wrong’d Caius Ligarius. There is but one mind in these men, and it is bent against Caesar. If thou beest not immortal, look about you. Security gives way to conspiracy” Julius Caesar Act 2, Scene 3

    Donna R

  28. centaur009

    The ETS bill will go though and Labor will not have a DD trigger. Hockey’s popularity is equal with Turnbull’s, there is no advantage, and my money is on Hockey being mixed up with utegate. That leaves the mad monk, who is the only politician in the whole bunch, he might be capable of keeping his views to himself, but I am sure the Labor party would work hard at preventing that.

    It looks like those who don’t sigh up to carbon reduction schemes will be facing trade barriers. Is that what the Greens and Liberals want for Australia?

  29. I have no spur
    To prick the sides of my intent, but only
    Vaulting ambition, which o’erleaps itself,
    And falls on th’ other …
    (Macbeth 1 vii)

    Ah, THE questions …

    Will Malcolm, as is his wont, chuck a tan, pick up his bat and ball, mount his steed and ride off into the sunset?

    If he doesn’t resign, will there be a Liberal leadership spill before the result of the AFP & Auditor General investigations?

    Terms of reference appear to include any leaks during the current government’s term. I gather from Liberal reactions that no one is quite sure who’s in the clear. Nor does there seem to be a clear alternative. Hockey? But he rang Grech, so perhaps … The Bishop J and the Abbott, unelectable … Hunt, maybe, but not yet … Um, ah … Andrew Robb would love to be – almost as much as the ALP would love him to be … Does Judi Moylan have what it takes to lead the party through its next electoral defeat to its 2nd term in Opposition rebuilding?

    Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow …
    … It [was] a tale
    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
    Signifying nothing.

    (Macbeth 5 v)

    Ah I love Sweet William!

  30. If the Libs do toss Turnbull it will leave them with a very difficult choice. Bishop is discredited and would be an easy meal for the Govt. Hockey, the “popular choice”, is really a lightweight. When has he ever demonstrated depth and rigour in examining and explaining important issues?

  31. So Milne is whining about not being favoured by Rudd?
    What else did he expect? Why should Rudd give special favours to a journo so closely aligned with the conservatives?

  32. I predict Abbott will put his hat into the ring if Turnball’s poll numbers don’t improve.
    Rudd must be shaking in his boots at the prospect of going up against
    “Mr People Skills”.

  33. [Voters also marked Mr Turnbull down on the issues of likeability, trustworthiness and arrogance although Mr Rudd’s personal standing also dropped slightly as a result of the two most tumultuous parliamentary sitting weeks since the Rudd government came to power. ]

    I knew that was gonna happen. Rudd wasn’t gonna benefit from this.

  34. 26 bob1234 – Good on you for admitting you were wr… wr…. wrong.
    [There – i admitted i was wrong – which is more than can be said for some others on here]
    Come on Bob name names. Don’t shirk that one.

  35. As I stated in the previous thread:

    ” vote1maxine
    Posted Sunday, June 28, 2009 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

    Will Turnbull’s dissatisfaction rating exceed satisfaction rating in the next Newspoll? I’m expecting it to significantly do so.”

    Turnbull will survive the next 6 weeks. After that, it depends on what the AFP & A-G investigations conclude.

  36. [Mr Rudd’s personal standing also dropped SLIGHTLY ….

    I knew that was gonna happen. Rudd wasn’t gonna benefit from this.]

    You’re joking right Bob?

  37. [You’re joking right Bob?]

    Did his satisfaction raise like the 2pp did?

    The rise in 2pp isn’t increased support for Rudd Labor, it’s decreased support for the Turnbull coalition. If the 2pp rise was pro Rudd and not anti Turnbull, you’d have seen an increase in Rudd’s satisfaction, but instead it went (slightly) backward.

  38. [The rise in 2pp isn’t increased support for Rudd Labor, it’s decreased support for the Turnbull coalition.]

    [The parties have also exchanged three points on the primary vote, Labor up to 44 per cent and the Coalition down to 37 per cent.]

  39. Given the public interest, as per my comment on Richard Farmer story:

    My preliminary view based on the AFP having so far decided to NOT charge Godwin Grech (meaning he is not the forger, if indeed the email is forged?), is:

    The electorate are angry at being told their symbolic spouse, has breached faith, been unfaithful etc. The electorate “don’t believe it” as per Martin OShannasey of Newspoll on radio earlier today.

    But that doesn’t mean the spouse is not having an affair. Affairs happen every day – just ask Mr Sanford.

    The question is what the electorate will believe after the AFP fat lady sings, auditor general too.

    And what are the stages of a ‘truth’ that dare not be spoken?

    1. anger (the polls today)
    2. denial
    3. bargaining
    4. acceptance.

    Bring on the AFP charges for who did in fact send the Treasury email. ALP hack or not ALP hack? I wonder.

  40. The Libs need to forget ‘will make a good PM’ or electability as PM in the criteria for their next leader. They need someone who can put the party over personal ambition and put in the hard yards of rebuilding – finding new candidates, developing policies, creating a team.
    So they should elect, um, must be someone, …

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 33
1 2 33