An unprecedented triple whammy of opinion polls is disastrous enough for the Coalition to lend force to Dennis Shanahan‘s assertion that “Malcolm Turnbull’s political career has been smashed in just one week”. In turn:
• Arriving a day earlier than usual, Newspoll shows that the Coalition recovery detected a fortnight ago has come to a sudden end, with Labor’s lead back out from 53-47 to 56-44. The parties have also exchanged three points on the primary vote, Labor up to 44 per cent and the Coalition down to 37 per cent. However, the real shock is that Turnbull’s personal ratings have suffered what Shanahan calls “the single biggest fall in the survey’s 25-year history”: his approval rating has plunged from 44 per cent to 25 per cent, while his disapproval is up from 37 per cent to 58 per cent. Fifty-two per cent do not believe that John Grant received preferential treatment from the Prime Minister against only 24 per cent who do. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 57-25 to 65-18.
• ACNielsen, which is hopefully back to monthly polling as we enter the second half of the term, has Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 46 per cent while the Coalition’s is down six to 37 per cent. Fifty-three per cent say the OzCar affair has left them with a less favourable impression of Malcolm Turnbull, whose approval is down 11 points to 32 per cent with his disapproval has shot up 13 points to 60 per cent. Turnbull comes third as preferred Liberal leader with 18 per cent, behind Peter Costello on 37 per cent and Joe Hockey on 21 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 64-28 to 66-25, and his approval rating is up three points to 67 per cent.
• Galaxy has Labor’s primary vote up a point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s down two to 30 per cent. Sixty-one per cent believe Kevin Rudd has been open and honest about the OzCar affair, while 51 per cent “believed Mr Turnbull had been dishonest or somewhat deceitful”.
Once again, Victoria dominates the latest round of electoral news:
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has tabled two major reports which I haven’t got round to sinking my teeth into: the regular conduct of the federal election report, and that into the Commwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that complicated quarreling in the Victorian ALP has thrown up “rogue challengers” against at least ten state MPs. Keilor MP George Seitz, who faces enforced retirement in the wake of the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council, is said to be largely reponsible: Andrew Landeryou at VexNews identifies his state nominees as Tomislav Tomic (against Bundoora MP Colin Brooks), Seeralan Arumugam Gunaratnam (Carrum MP Jenny Lindell), Raymond Congreve (Lara MP John Eren), Rosa Mitrevski (Mill Park MP Lily D’Ambrosio), Philip Cassar (Mordialloc MP Janice Munt), Teodoro Tuason (Narre Warren North MP Luke Donnellan), Teresa Kiselis and Mate Barun (both taking on Northcote MP Fiona Richardson), Josefina Agustin (Prahran MP Tony Lupton), and Blagoja Bozinovski (Thomastown MP Peter Batchelor). For good measure, Seitz candidate Manfred Kriechbaum is taking on federal MP Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell. Other challengers are explained by Wallace in terms the “stability pact” forged between the Left and the Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and Steven Conroy, and counter-moves by rival Right unions seeking to forge ties with some of the more militant unions of the Left. This presumably accounts for Australian Manufacturing Workers Union candidate Andrew Richards joining the aforementioned Kriechbaum in a three-horse race against Vamvakinou in Calwell, Lisa Zanatta of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union challenging Lynne Kosky in Altona, and Kathleen Matthews-Ward of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association joining the Seitz challengers to Fiona Richardson in Northcote. The option of referring preselections to the party’s national executive remains available to John Brumby, who must be sorely tempted.
• Other challenges appear more obscure. A third Labor Unity candidate, Rick Garotti, is listed as a nominee against incumbent Craig Langdon in Ivanoe, in addition to the previously discussed Anthony Carbines. In Preston, Labor Unity MP Robin Scott is being challenged by Moreland councillor Anthony Helou (once of the Socialist Left, but more recently of Labor Unity) and Tamer Kairouz, said by Landeryou to be backed by upper house MP Nazih Elasmar, a principal of a Right sub-faction also linked with Theo Theophanous (not sure if any relation to Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz). Two Socialist Left members are under challenge from factional colleagues, which Andrew Landeryou suggests can be put down to dealings between the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and unions on the Right: Yuroke MP Liz Beattie faces a challenge from Colleen Gibbs, an official with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, while Darebin councillor Timothy Laurence has nominated against Steve Herbert in Eltham. Andrew Lappos, who in the past has been associated with the Left, is listed as a challenger to the Right’s Telmo Languiller in Derrimut, but it was reported last week that Languiller’s preselection had been secured by the national executive.
• The preselection contest for Brunswick has taken on new significance with the news that Phil Cleary will contest the seat as an independent. Cleary defeated the Labor candidate in the federal seat of Wills in the 1992 by-election that followed Bob Hawke’s retirement and was narrowly re-elected in 1993, before losing to Labor’s Kelvin Thomson in 1996. He has more recently worked for the Electrical Trades Union, which under the leadership of Dean Mighell has disaffiliated with the ALP and given support to the Greens. Three candidates are listed for Labor preselection, each a colleague of outgoing member Carlo Carli in the Socialist Left: Jane Garrett, Slater and Gordon lawyer and former adviser to Steve Bracks; Enver Erdogan, 23-year-old Moreland councillor and staffer to House of Represenatatives Speaker Harry Jenkins, said to be aligned with the Kim Carr sub-faction; and Alice Pryor, also a Moreland councillor, aligned with the rival Left sub-faction associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin. Former party state secretary Eric Locke has proved a non-starter; Andrew Landeryou reports he has withdrawn in favour of Garrett, who would appear to be the front-runner. According to David Rood of The Age, Garrett also has the backing of John Brumby.
• Andrew Landeryou further reports that National Union of Workers state secretary Antony Thow has been “elected unopposed” for the third position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket. If that means what it appears to, it’s a significant story the mainstream media appears to have ignored, as Labor would seem very likely on current form to repeat its 2007 election feat of winning a third seat.
• The Moonee Valley Community News reports it is “not expected” that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will be opposed in the Labor preselection for Essendon, to which the party has assigned him so sitting member South Eastern Metropolitan MLC Bob Smith can be given a safer seat in Western Metropolitan. Mark Kennedy, a former mayor of Moonee Valley, was earlier reported to have ambitions to replace the retiring Judy Maddigan.
• Federal Liberal MP Chris Pearce has announced he will not seek re-election in his Melbourne seat of Aston. Pearce gave his party a morale-boosting by-election win in the seat in July 2001, limiting the Labor swing to 3.7 per cent – which has since stood as exhibit A in the case that the Howard government’s re-election the following November could not entirely be put down to the subsequent Tampa episode and September 11. He was closely associated throughout his time in politics with Peter Costello, and the fact and timing of his departure have inevitably been linked to Costello’s shock announcement early last week. No discussion yet that I’m aware of as to who might replace him. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that “another swathe of resignations” from federal Liberals is expected when New South Wales and Queensland redistributions are finalised early next year, although no names are named.
• The ABC reports that three Western Australian state Labor MPs, headed by the factionally unaligned Alannah MacTiernan, have moved at state conference for preselection reforms allowing “compulsory secret ballots for preselections, with delegates completing their own papers”.
Dario
Not true. Some of them actually got worse, like child abuse.
[Isn’t it good that crimes that once went unreported, are now (sic) being reported?]
It all depends on whether the doubling in reporting is actually due to genuine cases or not
[Not true. Some of them actually got worse, like child abuse.]
Again, that could just be an increase in reporting of abuse, not actual worsening of abuse
[I don’t expect much “improvement”, ever. We are defining “improvement” as “the degree to which indigenous people live more like white people.” The fact is that most of them don’t wish to do so, and passively resist all efforts to make them do so. Words like “poverty” and “squalor” are western cultural notions which we are imposing on them.]
Agree. Still, that shouldn’t give whites a get out of jail free card on the subject.
Dario
It certainly could be, which would be a good thing and probably indicative that the Intervention has had at least one success. Or it could reflect increasing actual abuse which would indicate the opposite.
The child abuse figures aren’t just a Western construct.
[It shows the rate of substantiated notifications for child abuse or neglect for Indigenous children has more than doubled since 1999-2000, from 16 per 1000 children to 35 per 1000 children.
At the same time, the rate for non-Indigenous children has risen from five to six per 1000.]
[Still, that shouldn’t give whites a get out of jail free card on the subject.]
That evades the question of what whites are supposed to do about it. My view is that we should assist the minority who want to acquire a western education and live in white society. But what about those who want to live like they do at Wadeye? All we can do is pay them the dole and let them be.
“child abuse” is itself a western construct. “Child” is a western construct.
[That evades the question of what whites are supposed to do about it. ]
I’m not sure it does. We need to keep taking measures to try and solve the problem, but just be a bit more realistic about the likelihood of improvement when it comes to dog whistle politics.
I worked in an area with a lot of child abuse. I cannot say that the indigenous community was any worse than the non-indigenous. Lots in both communities and it meant many sleepless nights for me worrying about the upcoming cases and the consequences for the kids.
It’s a difficult area to work in and I take my hat off to many of the DOCS workers – some were better than others but all had horrendous caseloads.
Typical that most of the media talk in that area was about … you guessed it, only the indigenous community.
[We need to keep taking measures to try and solve the problem]
But what is the “problem”? That people in these communities live in circumstances that we define as “appalling.” That they fail to meet our definitions of good health, life expectancy, education, employability etc etc. *We* cannot change that, because *they* are not *us*.
[“child abuse” is itself a western construct. “Child” is a western construct.]
Especially the latter when initiation ceremonies are conducted when the “Child” is 12 or 13″ and after said cermenonies they are considered “Men”.
[But what is the “problem”?]
I think in part you answered your own question:
[fail to meet our definitions of good health, life expectancy, education, employability etc etc.]
[*We* cannot change that, because *they* are not *us*.]
I agree we cannot change that to get their living standards to be the same as whites, but that should not necessarily be the ‘target’
If we seriously want to force our definitions of childhood and child abuse onto indigenous communities, and impose our forms of social work on them, then the only possible measure to take is to remove the children from the abusive circumstances. But wait… we already tried that, and it’s now regarded as one of the crimes of the century, which we have just apologised for, despite the clear evidence that it greatly benefited many of the individuals concerned (as Lowitja O’Donohue has conceded in her own case). So what do you propose doing about it?
After seeing the Four Corners show on Monday regarding the Immigration department boats in Torres Strait, and from my own perception working in Canberra, the govt could do worse than cleaning out the Immigration department. it was the least competent federal organisation I ever dealt with. This isn’t a criticism of govt policy. Sheer apathy and incompetence can still kill people, and indigenous persons in remote communities are often more vulnerable to such failures.
As for Aboriginal indicators, I am utterly pessimistic of any improvement until education standards are improved. Without that there is no hope. That will require some form of social intervention IMO, as disfunctional communities do not often fix themselves. That is as true in Macquarie Fields as it is in Wilcannia.
[I agree we cannot change that to get their living standards to be the same as whites, but that should not necessarily be the ‘target’]
So what should be the tgarget?
[I am utterly pessimistic of any improvement until education standards are improved]
Most indigenous kids are not interested in whitefella education, because its content is meaningless to them. It’s the equivalent of putting you in a hassidic yeshiva and making you memorise the Torah all day. “Education” is worthless unless it conforms to your values about what is important to know. My brother tought in a country high school for ten years and never got an indigenous kid past year 10, despite heroic efforts. Of course there are exceptions, and they should be helped as much as possible, but they *are* exceptions to the rule.
The only area I have any expertise in is Health, esp Indigenous Burns (about 12x higher mortality than non-indigenous). We’ve put in a huge amount of resources and energy but it’s really hard to make much difference.
[Symbolism is important but is actually counter-productive if it is a substitute for substance.]
I can’t think of a single person who proposed that once the parliament apologises, that nothing else needs to be done.
[I don’t expect much “improvement”, ever. We are defining “improvement” as “the degree to which indigenous people live more like white people.” ]
Are we really? It’s not a western construct to improve the health of a population, that is something all governments should do for everyone, because it means people live more fulfilling lives if they aren’t constantly sick.
There has been little substantive research and reporting of child sexual abuse [CSA] in indigenous communities.
There has been a lot, an enormous amount, of unsubstantiated hysterical statements by politicians and media. A lot of words, virtually nil numbers.
The only vaguely credible and authoritive reports have given estimates for CSA for indigenous communities at rates about the same [in one case] and even lower [in another] than CSA rates in white communities throughout Australia.
In other words, the only valid estimates for CSA in indigenous communities suggests that their rates of incidence [as distinct from reported suspected cases which is a far far different thing altogether] are lower than the general estimates for Australians as a whole.
Which are, roughly cos there is considerable debate much of it unfounded, around 1 in 4-6 for girls and 1 in 6-8 for boys, so say 1 in 10 at a very very conservative estimate and that is more than the estimated rates for indigenous communities.
But the media and politicains don’t let facts get in the way of a good smear.
Adam,
You might be interested in having a look at this!
[Mark Gould meets veterans of the 43 Group, an organisation of Jewish ex-servicemen who waged a five-year war against Oswald Mosley’s fascists]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2009/jan/27/holocaust-memorial-day-43-group-public-event
[So what should be the target?]
Good question. Trying to achieve white living standards in remote communities is simply not realistic. How high do we set the bar? Can’t say I have the answer. Not sure it’s something that can be determined in 5 minutes either.
[“Education” is worthless unless it conforms to your values about what is important to know.]
Are you sure? I was forced to do mathematics at school, even though I found it completely pointless.
White students have to learn all sorts of things that they don’t “value”, why should indigenous students be allowed to reject things that don’t conform to their “values”.
Plus, learning and being curious about the world are human values anyway. That’s how children learn to speak and walk.
We live in a culture that values good health, longevity, hygeine, education, employment and affluence. We are completely mystified by a culture that values none of those things. So we oscillate between guilt and anger at the current state of affairs, which is largely a product of (a) rapidly increasing indigenous population, (b) greater mobility (c) penetration of indigenous communities by our cultural detritus such as alcohol, drugs and porn, (d) the breakdown of the old station-based welfare system, and (e) the corruption and incompetemce of the self-appointed indigenous “leadership”
The target should be to educate the children. Education brings a chance for a life to develop in a different way. Many of the children are very keen to learn – they only need the adults to be encouraged to make sure they do.
If education, and health, are not the top priorities then nothing will ever change for those communities. Just sitting on your bum on the dole will not help at all.
If the communities want to be left alone then perhaps paying the dole is the wrong thing to do.
[It’s not a western construct to improve the health of a population]
Of course it is. What was the life expectancy of indiegnous people in Australia before 1788? About 25 I think I read somewhere.
[why should indigenous students be allowed to reject things that don’t conform to their “values”.]
Ok, if you really believe that, you should be advocating for the mass removal of indigenous kids from these communities. Do you have the nerve to advocate that?
[We live in a culture that values good health, longevity, hygeine, education, employment and affluence. ]
So, if a white person decides to reject good health, longevity, hygiene, education, employment, and affluence, then it would be find for them to receive the dole indefinitely as well?
The fact you agree their exceptions, i.e. indigenous people that go to university and get degrees demonstrates that the cultural difference you ascribe to indigenous people are just as arbitrary as the ones you ascribe to the culture we live in.
[So, if a white person decides to reject good health, longevity, hygiene, education, employment, and affluence, then it would be fine for them to receive the dole indefinitely as well?]
It’s not “fine”, but since there aren’t many of them it’s not worth the effort of trying to prevent them living on the dole.
[The fact you agree their exceptions, i.e. indigenous people that go to university and get degrees demonstrates that the cultural difference you ascribe to indigenous people are just as arbitrary as the ones you ascribe to the culture we live in.]
The fact that are exceptions to a rule doesn’t invalidate the rule. Are you seriously saying there is no cultural difference between white Australians and indigenous people?
[Ok, if you really believe that, you should be advocating for the mass removal of indigenous kids from these communities. Do you have the nerve to advocate that?]
If you really believe that, then white students shouldn’t be forced to study English, or Mathematics, or any other compulsory subjects that they don’t like.
[It’s not “fine”, but since there aren’t many of them it’s not worth the effort of trying to prevent them living on the dole.]
Why isn’t it fine? Why are you allowed to force your values on another white person, but won’t accept that some cultural values are universals that apply to everyone?
[Are you seriously saying there is no cultural difference between white Australians and indigenous people?]
Are you seriously saying there aren’t some cultural universals that all people share?
[If you really believe that, then white students shouldn’t be forced to study English, or Mathematics, or any other compulsory subjects that they don’t like.]
Don’t play silly reductio ad absurdam games with me. This is a serious subject, if you want to discuss it seriously, I’m happy to do so. If not, not.
Other countries seem to have been a lot more successful than us, like NZ and even the US. Lots of South America has a similar problem which still seems to be better managed than us. I’m not sure why there is so much more of a “gap” in Oz than in those other countries.
[ I’m not sure why there is so much more of a “gap” in Oz than in those other countries.]
because even now, we still are thinking along the lines of us and them.
Until we accept the indigenes inalienable rights and set those out in the form of a treaty/moratorium/agreement, then we are truly the dog chasing its tail
[Other countries seem to have been a lot more successful than us, like NZ and even the US. Lots of South America has a similar problem which still seems to be better managed than us. I’m not sure why there is so much more of a “gap” in Oz than in those other countries.]
Because the cultural gap is much wider. The Maori adapted to western culture quite quickly, and they were numerically in a stronger position. There was Maori doctors and lawyers by 1900. Australian indigenous society and culture were much less “western” than Maori society and culture, and were more thoroughly destroyed by white conquest. As far as I know the situation with Native Americans is pretty similar to the situation here, and for the same reasons.
[Until we accept the indigenes inalienable rights and set those out in the form of a treaty/moratorium/agreement]
And what would those inalienable rights be? What difference would a treaty/moratorium/agreement make to their actual circumstances? (I’m not necessarily opposed to one, I just don’t see what practical difference it would make.)
[Until we accept the indigenes inalienable rights and set those out in the form of a treaty/moratorium/agreement]
Now there’s a post jam-packed with “Western constructs” …
I think we have to keep trying to “close the gap” (whatever that means), especially on health. I don’t really care if that view makes me a tacit supporter of imposing “Western constructs”.
[And what would those inalienable rights be? What difference would a treaty/moratorium/agreement make to their actual circumstances? (I’m not necessarily opposed to one, I just don’t see what practical difference it would make.) ]
+1
[And what would those inalienable rights be? What difference would a treaty/moratorium/agreement make to their actual circumstances? (I’m not necessarily opposed to one, I just don’t see what practical difference it would make.)]
I suggest you refresh your understanding of the treaty of waitangi
ps a bit of a sweeping statement regarding the maori’s abilty V the aborigine to become doctors etc etc
[Now there’s a post jam-packed with “Western constructs” …]
Well, the whitey’s have to understand it to
😉
[I think we have to keep trying to “close the gap” (whatever that means), especially on health. I don’t really care if that view makes me a tacit supporter of imposing “Western constructs”.]
Ok, that’s a fair enough position. The two essentials for that are a ban on the sale or supply of alcohol to indigenous people, and the removal of children from dysfunctional (by western definition) indigenous households. Without those two things, all else is futile. Are you willing to advocate those things?
Start with the alcohol and see where that gets us.
[Ok, that’s a fair enough position. The two essentials for that are a ban on the sale or supply of alcohol to indigenous people, and the removal of children from dysfunctional (by western definition) indigenous households. Without those two things, all else is futile. Are you willing to advocate those things?]
Those are SYMPTOMS of a dysfunctional society, please do nto put them in the causal basket.
The are evident in ANY society
[The two essentials for that are a ban on the sale or supply of alcohol to indigenous people]
I don’t think you can do that legally anyway. I’m pretty sure the constitution prevents the Government making a law that only affects one ethnic group.
The Treaty of Waitangi reflected the willingness of the British in 1840 to treat the Maori as a sovereign people, mainly because the Maori were in a strong enough position to defend their lands by force. There’s no analogy between that situation and what we have in Australia now. So I ask again, what would the content of such a treaty be, and what practical difference would it make to anything?
[sweeping statement regarding the maori’s abilty V the aborigine to become doctors ]
I made no statement about innate “ability.” I made a statement about cultural differences. There were Maori members of Parliament from 1867. Australia didn’t have an indigenous MP for a century after that.
Perhaps the range of cultural differences between different Aboriginal Clan and National groups, (which to some extent exists today) would explain why it is simply impossible to treat them as a single homogeneous group and apply remedial fixes as a one size fits all measure.
[There is great diversity between different Indigenous communities and societies in Australia, each with its own unique mixture of cultures, customs and languages. In present day Australia these groups are further divided into local communities.[4]]
[The population was split into 250 individual nations, many of which were in alliance with one another, and within each nation there existed several clans, from as little as 5 or 6 to as many as 30 or 40. Each nation had its own language and a few had several. Thus over 250 languages existed, around 200 of which are now extinct or on the verge of extinction.
The mode of life and material cultures varied greatly from region to region. The greatest population density was to be found in the southern and eastern regions of the continent, the River Murray valley in particular.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Australians
[I don’t think you can do that legally anyway. I’m pretty sure the constitution prevents the Government making a law that only affects one ethnic group.]
It’s called the “race power” and it’s been in the Constitution since 1901. The 1967 referendum extended it to indigenous people.
[The Treaty of Waitangi reflected the willingness of the British in 1840 to treat the Maori as a sovereign people, mainly because the Maori were in a strong enough position to defend their lands by force. ]
OK, so might is right and cos the indigene didnt have a treaty – suck shit
Very flawed logic there psephos
[I made no statement about innate “ability.” I made a statement about cultural differences. There were Maori members of Parliament from 1867. Australia didn’t have an indigenous MP for a century after that.]
Gee psephos ever heard of legal recognition, I love you use of the maori mp , the Q should be WHY didnt we have one????
[I don’t think you can do that legally anyway. I’m pretty sure the constitution prevents the Government making a law that only affects one ethnic group.]
And it hasn’t stopped the WA Govt from banning the sale of Alcohol in North west Towns such as Halls Creek. Also the problem with Alcohol isn’t in the Communities which are Dry areas, but when residents go to the big towns and cities where such restrictions are in place ie Darwin & Alice Springs.
I won’t bother further with Gusface.
Frank, that’s why the ban needs to be racial rather than geographical. It should be illegal to sell or supply alcohol to any indigenous person, anywhere. Yes, that is “racist.” But since the problem is a race-bsed one, it needs race-based solutions.
[It should be illegal to sell or supply alcohol to any indigenous person, anywhere. Yes, that is “racist.” But since the problem is a race-bsed one, it needs race-based solutions.]
Maybe we should make ’em wear a SYMBOL so we can identify ’em easier.