Newspoll 56-44; ACNielsen 58-42; Galaxy 56-44

An unprecedented triple whammy of opinion polls is disastrous enough for the Coalition to lend force to Dennis Shanahan‘s assertion that “Malcolm Turnbull’s political career has been smashed in just one week”. In turn:

• Arriving a day earlier than usual, Newspoll shows that the Coalition recovery detected a fortnight ago has come to a sudden end, with Labor’s lead back out from 53-47 to 56-44. The parties have also exchanged three points on the primary vote, Labor up to 44 per cent and the Coalition down to 37 per cent. However, the real shock is that Turnbull’s personal ratings have suffered what Shanahan calls “the single biggest fall in the survey’s 25-year history”: his approval rating has plunged from 44 per cent to 25 per cent, while his disapproval is up from 37 per cent to 58 per cent. Fifty-two per cent do not believe that John Grant received preferential treatment from the Prime Minister against only 24 per cent who do. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 57-25 to 65-18.

ACNielsen, which is hopefully back to monthly polling as we enter the second half of the term, has Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 46 per cent while the Coalition’s is down six to 37 per cent. Fifty-three per cent say the OzCar affair has left them with a less favourable impression of Malcolm Turnbull, whose approval is down 11 points to 32 per cent with his disapproval has shot up 13 points to 60 per cent. Turnbull comes third as preferred Liberal leader with 18 per cent, behind Peter Costello on 37 per cent and Joe Hockey on 21 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 64-28 to 66-25, and his approval rating is up three points to 67 per cent.

Galaxy has Labor’s primary vote up a point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s down two to 30 per cent. Sixty-one per cent believe Kevin Rudd has been open and honest about the OzCar affair, while 51 per cent “believed Mr Turnbull had been dishonest or somewhat deceitful”.

Once again, Victoria dominates the latest round of electoral news:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has tabled two major reports which I haven’t got round to sinking my teeth into: the regular conduct of the federal election report, and that into the Commwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008.

Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that complicated quarreling in the Victorian ALP has thrown up “rogue challengers” against at least ten state MPs. Keilor MP George Seitz, who faces enforced retirement in the wake of the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council, is said to be largely reponsible: Andrew Landeryou at VexNews identifies his state nominees as Tomislav Tomic (against Bundoora MP Colin Brooks), Seeralan Arumugam Gunaratnam (Carrum MP Jenny Lindell), Raymond Congreve (Lara MP John Eren), Rosa Mitrevski (Mill Park MP Lily D’Ambrosio), Philip Cassar (Mordialloc MP Janice Munt), Teodoro Tuason (Narre Warren North MP Luke Donnellan), Teresa Kiselis and Mate Barun (both taking on Northcote MP Fiona Richardson), Josefina Agustin (Prahran MP Tony Lupton), and Blagoja Bozinovski (Thomastown MP Peter Batchelor). For good measure, Seitz candidate Manfred Kriechbaum is taking on federal MP Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell. Other challengers are explained by Wallace in terms the “stability pact” forged between the Left and the Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and Steven Conroy, and counter-moves by rival Right unions seeking to forge ties with some of the more militant unions of the Left. This presumably accounts for Australian Manufacturing Workers Union candidate Andrew Richards joining the aforementioned Kriechbaum in a three-horse race against Vamvakinou in Calwell, Lisa Zanatta of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union challenging Lynne Kosky in Altona, and Kathleen Matthews-Ward of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association joining the Seitz challengers to Fiona Richardson in Northcote. The option of referring preselections to the party’s national executive remains available to John Brumby, who must be sorely tempted.

• Other challenges appear more obscure. A third Labor Unity candidate, Rick Garotti, is listed as a nominee against incumbent Craig Langdon in Ivanoe, in addition to the previously discussed Anthony Carbines. In Preston, Labor Unity MP Robin Scott is being challenged by Moreland councillor Anthony Helou (once of the Socialist Left, but more recently of Labor Unity) and Tamer Kairouz, said by Landeryou to be backed by upper house MP Nazih Elasmar, a principal of a Right sub-faction also linked with Theo Theophanous (not sure if any relation to Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz). Two Socialist Left members are under challenge from factional colleagues, which Andrew Landeryou suggests can be put down to dealings between the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and unions on the Right: Yuroke MP Liz Beattie faces a challenge from Colleen Gibbs, an official with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, while Darebin councillor Timothy Laurence has nominated against Steve Herbert in Eltham. Andrew Lappos, who in the past has been associated with the Left, is listed as a challenger to the Right’s Telmo Languiller in Derrimut, but it was reported last week that Languiller’s preselection had been secured by the national executive.

• The preselection contest for Brunswick has taken on new significance with the news that Phil Cleary will contest the seat as an independent. Cleary defeated the Labor candidate in the federal seat of Wills in the 1992 by-election that followed Bob Hawke’s retirement and was narrowly re-elected in 1993, before losing to Labor’s Kelvin Thomson in 1996. He has more recently worked for the Electrical Trades Union, which under the leadership of Dean Mighell has disaffiliated with the ALP and given support to the Greens. Three candidates are listed for Labor preselection, each a colleague of outgoing member Carlo Carli in the Socialist Left: Jane Garrett, Slater and Gordon lawyer and former adviser to Steve Bracks; Enver Erdogan, 23-year-old Moreland councillor and staffer to House of Represenatatives Speaker Harry Jenkins, said to be aligned with the Kim Carr sub-faction; and Alice Pryor, also a Moreland councillor, aligned with the rival Left sub-faction associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin. Former party state secretary Eric Locke has proved a non-starter; Andrew Landeryou reports he has withdrawn in favour of Garrett, who would appear to be the front-runner. According to David Rood of The Age, Garrett also has the backing of John Brumby.

• Andrew Landeryou further reports that National Union of Workers state secretary Antony Thow has been “elected unopposed” for the third position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket. If that means what it appears to, it’s a significant story the mainstream media appears to have ignored, as Labor would seem very likely on current form to repeat its 2007 election feat of winning a third seat.

• The Moonee Valley Community News reports it is “not expected” that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will be opposed in the Labor preselection for Essendon, to which the party has assigned him so sitting member South Eastern Metropolitan MLC Bob Smith can be given a safer seat in Western Metropolitan. Mark Kennedy, a former mayor of Moonee Valley, was earlier reported to have ambitions to replace the retiring Judy Maddigan.

• Federal Liberal MP Chris Pearce has announced he will not seek re-election in his Melbourne seat of Aston. Pearce gave his party a morale-boosting by-election win in the seat in July 2001, limiting the Labor swing to 3.7 per cent – which has since stood as exhibit A in the case that the Howard government’s re-election the following November could not entirely be put down to the subsequent Tampa episode and September 11. He was closely associated throughout his time in politics with Peter Costello, and the fact and timing of his departure have inevitably been linked to Costello’s shock announcement early last week. No discussion yet that I’m aware of as to who might replace him. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that “another swathe of resignations” from federal Liberals is expected when New South Wales and Queensland redistributions are finalised early next year, although no names are named.

• The ABC reports that three Western Australian state Labor MPs, headed by the factionally unaligned Alannah MacTiernan, have moved at state conference for preselection reforms allowing “compulsory secret ballots for preselections, with delegates completing their own papers”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,641 comments on “Newspoll 56-44; ACNielsen 58-42; Galaxy 56-44”

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  1. [Maybe we should make ‘em wear a SYMBOL so we can identify ‘em easier.]

    If needs be. You’re not going to scare me with political correctness, Gusface. In fact I’m in favour of a national ID card, which would solve that problem as well as many others.

    So what’s your solution to the fact that alcohol is destroying indigenous Australia? A treaty? What difference would that make?

  2. “The problem” is not merely intractable, it is irresolvable.

    “The problem” exists whether you are talking about racial differences (aboriginal and non-aboriginal), religious differences (religious and non-religious, Christian and non-Christian, catholic and protestant, Roman and orthodox) or economic differences (rich and poor) and all the other differences you can think of.

    There seems to be two extremes: integrate, and live and let live. The former makes no sense unless the two parties are sufficiently similar to allow it; even then schisms will develop. The latter does make sense. “The problem” then arises: what happens where the two overlap or conflict? To what extent should the values or wishes and desires of one be allowed to dominate the values of the other.

    Maybe we should go with live and let live and just put our resources towards the overlaps. Lots of “values” will be offended but at least it would be cheaper.

    Incapable of resolution.

  3. This debate misses one very big point if a person is unable to look after themselves or are at risk of extreme disadvantage there is already the ability to deal with this.

    I will use the Victorian example for I am unsure about the situation in other states but a person can go to VCAT and obtain a person who is at risk an Administration order that allows an Administrator to administrate a Clients financial and legal affairs as laid out in the Guardianship and Administration Act, also using the same act a Guardian can be appointed whos role is to oversea accomedation and health issues..

  4. [Maybe we should go with live and let live]

    In practice that would mean letting these communities drink themselves to death. That’s a defensible position, but it needs to be stated honestly.

  5. [So what’s your solution to the fact that alcohol is destroying indigenous Australia? A treaty? What difference would that make?]

    hopefully MarkTwain will be able to further enlighten you, re NZ and its relationship with its indigenes. My limited understanding is that from a legal base the indigenes have garnered certain rights,which btw are an evolving beast and still cause angst among maori and pakeha

    A treaty, unlike ‘sorry day’, would put into place a legal framework that would assit the indigene in regaining some sense of worth and PLACE in current Oz society. cf maori rights

    As I said before alcohol is the symptom not the cause- perhaps we look at those “dry towns” as models and go from there. bur simply saying its on of the core problems is maintaining the us V them attitude

  6. Mexicanbeemer, a hundred years ago the entire indigenous population was in that position – there were officially under the protection of the state. Are you arguing for a return to that state of affairs, for indigenous people who cannot or will not live by white standards of acceptable conduct to be placed in a kind of state wardship? Again, that’s a defensible position, but needs to be faced directly and not euphemised.

  7. Yes, Mexicanbeemer, and who will have the willingness to, or be concerned enough, to make the application? Probably only someone sharing the same disfunction (in our terms) as the person the application is about.

  8. [“The problem” is not merely intractable, it is irresolvable.]

    #1350 – are you going to get me into trouble again? 😉

  9. [A treaty, unlike ’sorry day’, would put into place a legal framework that would assit the indigene in regaining some sense of worth and PLACE in current Oz society.]

    Indigenous people already have a place in current Australian society – they have equal citizenship with everyone else. What other status would you advocate for them? And what difference would it make? The Native Americans are legally recognised as “nations” under American law, and they all have official treaties. Much good it has done them.

  10. [for indigenous people who cannot or will not live by white standards of acceptable conduct to be placed in a kind of state wardship? ]

    Is that, if not in fact but in application, what the ‘intervention” currently is.

  11. Over 9,000 Victorian are currently under Administration Orders some of these people live in their own homes others in Nursing Homes some in rental accomedation, what I am talking about is the State has the abilitiy to help people to overcome their difficulty in managing their own money and I know STL have been very successful in helping some people who previously have had diffculty overcoming them to the point that they no longer need an Admin order.

    What I am talking about is very different to the terrible policies of the Stolen Generation, what I am talking about is already firmly in place and I know it has a good track record.

    Health Professionals are the main source of applications

  12. Psephos @ 1353

    The alcohol is an “overlap”.

    Do I think we should deal with it? Yes. How, and to what extent? I don’t know: that’s not a copout, just ignorance.

  13. There’s only one way to deal with a situation where you have a defined ethnic population which has a completely overwhelming problem with alcohol abuse, and that is to prevent members of that population having access to alcohol. Does anyone have any better ideas?

  14. [There was Maori doctors and lawyers by 1900. Australian indigenous society and culture were much less “western” than Maori society and culture, and were more thoroughly destroyed by white conquest.]
    You don’t think things like being denied an education, having employment opportunities restricted and your wages controlled or confiscated had anything to do with this?
    [There’s only one way to deal with a situation where you have a defined ethnic population which has a completely overwhelming problem with alcohol abuse]
    Except that alcohol abuse is less common in Aboriginal communities than in non-Aboriginal communities. It is the effects of the alcohol abuse that are so devastating.

  15. Psephos

    “There’s only one way to deal with a situation where you have a defined ethnic population which has a completely overwhelming problem with alcohol abuse, and that is to prevent members of that population having access to alcohol.”

    Oversimplifying a problem and then providing a solution for that simplification is a bad solution. Preventing people from having things based solely on race is a bad solution.
    I think in this case it would be best to say that the people on this blog are not actually required to make the solution, and I don’t think you are really helping in solving it. You are allowed to say “I don’t know” when you don’t know.

  16. [Does anyone have any better ideas?

    Not that I’ve heard.]

    I think Frank C has articulated this better than me.

    [I don’t think you can do that legally anyway. I’m pretty sure the constitution prevents the Government making a law that only affects one ethnic group.

    And it hasn’t stopped the WA Govt from banning the sale of Alcohol in North west Towns such as Halls Creek. Also the problem with Alcohol isn’t in the Communities which are Dry areas, but when residents go to the big towns and cities where such restrictions are in place ie Darwin & Alice Springs]

  17. There are lots of people in society who have a problem with alcohol abuse. You need a way to deal with all of them.

    You need to deal with “white” people who have problems with alcohol and cause problems to others.

    You also need to let “black” people who don’t have a problem with alcohol get on with their lives normally without discriminating against them by not serving them when their colleagues have a drink at the pub after working in the law courts or the classroom all day.

    You can’t seriously be suggesting now that everybody has to have their race classified so that various alcohol laws can apply differently to them!

  18. [You don’t think things like being denied an education, having employment opportunities restricted and your wages controlled or confiscated had anything to do with this?]

    That’s just putting the same statement in different words. Indigenous society was (largely) destroyed by white conquest, and access to white society was barred except to a very few. That’s all true, but it’s not much help saying that now. Apologies won’t address the current situation. And some aspects of the old system, such as the station-based welfare system (ie, wages paid in kind) were clearly beneficial.

    [Except that alcohol abuse is less common in Aboriginal communities than in non-Aboriginal communities. It is the effects of the alcohol abuse that are so devastating.]

    I don’t know where you get that factoid from. Can you point to a white community that looks like Wadeye or Manangrida? In any case it’s not relevant. White communities are not committing auto-genocide through alcohol-induced social disintegration as indigneous communities.

  19. To put the Maori sets system in perspective

    They got manhood suffrage several years before the rest of New Zealand.

    They did not get the secret ballot until the late thirties and electoral rolls until the late forties. The first redistribution of Maori seat was in 1954. The Maori seats were fixed a four despite this being a fraction of what there number would be if they were based on the proportion of the population that is Maori. The Labour government in the 1970s floated the number of Maori seats when it gave Maori the right to choose to be on the normal role and 40% of the Maori stayed on the separate role and the number stayed a four. The Muldoon National government fixed the number back at four and it stayed that way until the MMP reforms in 1996.

  20. Psephos
    “White communities are not committing auto-genocide through alcohol-induced social disintegration as indigneous communities.”

    They are in Russia. Do you want to ban alcohol in Russia too?

  21. [You can’t seriously be suggesting now that everybody has to have their race classified so that various alcohol laws can apply differently to them!]

    Unless you have a better solution, yes. (Everybody in the US is legally classified by race, and our constitution recognises “race” as a legal category.)

  22. Part V – Powers of the Parliament
    51.The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws for the peace, order, and good government of the Commonwealth with respect to: –
    (xxvi.) The people of any race, for whom it is deemed necessary to make special laws:

  23. Psephos
    “Unless you have a better solution, yes. ”
    That is a very poor argument. No one here is required to solve this problem.

  24. [Do you want to ban alcohol in Russia too?]

    It couldn’t hurt. But I haven’t done any reading on the social pathology of Russia, so I’m not offering an opinion.

  25. [No one here is required to solve this problem.]

    We are all Australians, and well-educated and articulate ones at that. If not us, who? If not now, when?

  26. [Has prohibition ever worked?]

    It depends on how you define “work”. No country has ever stamped out alcohol-related problems, although I believe alcohol consumption did fall in the US during Prohibition. But we are not talking about national prohibition. We are talking about maybe 200,000 people.

  27. Psephos

    “We are all Australians, and well-educated and articulate ones at that. If not us, who? If not now, when?”

    This is a political statement. And reflects poorly on the issue.

    I think you are rushing toward a political solution (ie one that will produce some results quickly) rather than a real solution (which in this case would probably take decades). The real solution would require education, and will take a long time.

  28. Psephos

    “But we are not talking about national prohibition. We are talking about maybe 200,000 people.”
    How are you defining aboriginal then? Wikipedia gives a total of 517 000.

  29. It’s not that easy to stop an alcoholic from getting alcohol either. They can steal it, buy it on the black market or make their own. I can’t see any alcohol ban working too well.

  30. [I think you are rushing toward a political solution (ie one that will produce some results quickly) rather than a real solution (which in this case would probably take decades). The real solution would require education, and will take a long time.]

    I’m happy to hear about alternative solutions. What’s yours?

  31. A bit of googling tells me that alcohol consumption fell by 50% during Prohibition, as did hospital admissions for cirrhosis and alcohol-related dementia.

    Most indigenous drinkers are not “alcoholics” in a medical sense. They are just people who get drunk all the time.

  32. Psephos

    I don’t have a particular solution, I just think yours is a bad one.

    I would think the solution would be based in education. I think it would take a long time. I think we need to remove our expectations that this problem will be solvable in the short term. I don’t even think there is a ‘solution’ as that implies it will stop being a problem. Alcohol will always be a ‘problem’, in all communities (and I mean that globally).

    Many cultures and races have problems with alcohol, simply banning it won’t stop the problem.

  33. Diogenes,
    being a medicine man, do you know anything about the way Aboriginal people metabolise alcohol? I had heard they were less able. Perhaps the solution could actually be a medical one?

  34. [I would think the solution would be based in education.]

    Education of who about what?

    [being a medicine man, do you know anything about the way Aboriginal people metabolise alcohol? I had heard they were less able.]

    There has been research on this among Native Americans, which showed it to be untrue. I don’t know if any research has been done here.

  35. Wow! A good old-fashioned PB $hit fight!

    And I thought it was all about rusty utes, misleading parliament, fake emails, Liberal moles, fat first ladies, corrupt treasurers, blogs v. news, and an oppo leader who’s got all the skills except, y’know, those goldarn political ones.

  36. There is not a universal solution to indigenous “problems” – there are hundreds of solutions. What is needed in Wadeye is different to Redfern. What is needed on Palm Island is different to the Alice town camps.

    We need to stop treating “indigenous” people as one homogeneous group and address the different problems in different communities.

    The Productivity Commission admits its data is crud. But we get the knee-jerk reaction from the usual media suspects. 🙁

  37. [Don’t play silly reductio ad absurdam games with me. This is a serious subject, if you want to discuss it seriously, I’m happy to do so. If not, not.]
    On the one hand, you don’t think Aboriginal children should be made to go to school, but on the other hand, you think that white children should be forced to go to school, including being made to do subjects that they may not like. That’s an obvious contradiction.

    If people can point to their culture to explain why they shouldn’t be compelled to go to school, then it should apply to everyone equally. There shouldn’t be one rule for Aboriginal children, and another rule for white children.

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