Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The Poll Bludger is still in Summer Edition mode, so pardon me for being less than timely with the news that Roy Morgan attached a question on voting intention to its recent 715-sample phone survey on consumer confidence, which had Labor leading 57.5-42.5. Something like normal service will resume as of tomorrow night’s Newspoll. Other news:

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “branches in the Sutherland Shire seat of Cook are being furiously stacked in what moderates say is an attempt to ward off a potential challenge by the far right to the sitting Liberal member, Scott Morrison”. However, Right sources deny any such plan and instead argue the stacking is being conducted in pursuit of the moderates’ own designs against Morrison. Central to the ongoing dispute is Michael Towke, whose preselection win upon the retirement of Bruce Baird at the 2007 election was overturned by the party’s state executive following reports of branch-stacking activities and extravagant claims made in his CV. The seat instead went to the well-connected but factionally unaligned Morrison, who went on to suffer humiliation at the hands of the local Right-controlled branches which refused his membership application a few months after he entered parliament. Talk of ongoing Right designs on the seat received further impetus when Towke secured the position of Cook electoral council secretary. Coorey reports there are rumours afoot that the Right will seek to have state upper house MP Marie Ficarra depose Morrison, making her own position available to Towke – although this was “laughed off” by a “senior Right source”.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Labor national executive has given Kevin Rudd and the five-member national executive committee (Anthony Albanese, Mark Arbib, Mark Butler, Bill Shorten and Bill Ludwig) extensive powers over federal preselections. State branches will not be able to start preselection processes without the permission of the committee, which will further have the power to replace sitting members – significantly including Belinda Neal, the troubled member for Robertson.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Victorian Liberal leader Ted Baillieu, director Tony Nutt and president David Kemp have moved without reference to the party’s administration committee to truncate the preselection process for next year’s state election from eight weeks to four. Baillieu opponents say this is a move to shore up the position of his backers Andrew McIntosh (Kew), Helen Shardey (Caulfield) and Kim Wells (Scoresby). Landeryou also relates rumours about the possible departure of Liberal deputy leader Louise Asher, the member for Brighton.

• Liberal Party members in the Victorian federal seat of Corangamite, which the party lost in 2007, will today vote for a candidate at the next election. The front-runners are said to be Sarah Henderson, former 7:30 Report host and daughter of the late former Geelong state MP Ann Henderson, and Rod Nockles, internet security expert and former Howard government adviser. Others who have been mentioned at various stages include Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, more recently mentioned in relation to Wannon; former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Corangamite electorate council; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, owner of Kings Australia funeral services. (UPDATE: Sarah Henderson wins. See Andrew Landeryou and his comments thread for much confusion over who backed whom.)

• There was renewed talk this week that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden could be moving to the lower house. It was initially suggested he would take the seat of Keilor, expected to be forcibly vacated by controversial Right faction numbers man George Seitz. However, Madden has ruled this out, saying it would not be a good look for him to take the seat given the role of his staffer Hakki Suleyman in the Brimbank City Council controversies which are set to initiate Seitz’s departure. Madden said he did not want, but would not rule out, taking the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon. Prior to the 2006 election, it was planned that Madden would be accommodated in Bundoora due to the reduction in the size of the Legislative Council, but a rearrangement following Mary Delahunty’s departure from Northcote saw him stay put.

• The New South Wales Nationals’ annual state conference has resolved to proceed with an exciting plan in which a candidate in a yet-to-be-determined state electorate will be chosen by an American-style open primary, in which all voters in the electorate will be able to participate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

879 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  1. What blog was Kerr referring to when he said disagree with group think and the tribe will chase you off the cliff? Bolts? Akermans?

  2. [Bushfire Bill # 659:

    Costello = loser? *Laugh out loud*

    He’s presumbably far more successful and accomplished than you’ll ever be. Miserable little troll.]

    Mr Pot meet Mr Kettle – Geez bring back Bree, at least she’s far more entertaining than this sad little petal.

  3. [Miserable little troll.]

    Hi Patrick

    Still feeling the pain, don’t worry the next election is only about 1 year away now, you will probably get your hopes up, (they want me back), but more likely I see more tears ahead.

  4. [He’s presumbably far more successful and accomplished than you’ll ever be. Miserable little troll.]
    Calling people trolls is un-pollbludgermentary.

  6. I think the last NewsPoll was 55/45 TPP to the forces of goodness and light??

    I reckon 56/44 for tonight. If its better than that for the ALP then i will laugh, a lot.

    Good to see Costello finally piss off. He was a useless distraction to everyone. Maybe now the Libs can start to rebuild.

  7. I have it on good authority that Christian Kerr used to log on here under the name “Bree”. Hows that for breaking news in a blog?

  8. [He’s presumbably far more successful and accomplished than you’ll ever be. Miserable little troll.]

    Yes, it’s so hard to ride a mining boom wave. I spose it is hard work tending to those bedsores… hammocksores… whatever you care to call them.

  9. [He’s presumbably far more successful and accomplished than you’ll ever be]

    I wouldn’t presume that Costello has been successful or accomplished.

  10. [I have it on good authority that Christian Kerr used to log on here under the name “Bree”. Hows that for breaking news in a blog?]

    Even Kerr’s comments are more intelligent than Bree’s. And that’s saying something.

  12. # 705,

    Last time I checked, the mining boom didn’t begin until 2003, idiot. Hard to ride a “wave” when you weren’t actually riding one.

  13. Possum,

    let’s just say, the Oz is an institution. But, do you want to take your advice from some who lives in an institution.

  15. [Consider the early names being touted: former Kroger employee Jason Aldworth; former Liberal state director Julian Sheezel; John Roskam from the Institute of Public Affairs; Tom Elliott, the son of former party treasurer John Elliott; and Mal Brough, the former Howard government cabinet minister who has moved south to Melbourne.]

    All I know, it’s going to be a massive bun fight.

    Then there’s Bradfield…

  16. [I have it on good authority that Christian Kerr used to log on here under the name “Bree”. Hows that for breaking news in a blog?]

    Hmm, Bree/Hilary Bray – it seems young Christian has a thing with posting under a female name – does he have problems dealing with his gender ?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4vUC54zkk

  18. Patrick Fogarty, while we’re waiting to hear what key we’re to bay in and who’s got any eggs for Possum to chuck on the Newspoll, any thoughts on how tremendously jolly Malcolm was about Costello’s announcement? He was awfully pleased.

  21. [What? You want to turn another Liberal seat into a Labor one]

    Bullbutter

    Someone of Brough’s star quality will increase our margin in Higgins!

    Vote Brough!

  22. Glen,

    Out of left field I have heard Michael O’Brien to Higgins and Matthew Guy in to Malvern (State) and write your own ticket for Matt Guy’s MLA seat.

  23. From the Senator who gave us “the oversized mouse” comment…..

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/15/2598957.htm

    [ Let us be blunt: Peter Costello was double-crossed.

    In all of the subsequent years, he never brought on a leadership ballot for two reasons.

    The first was that he was never close to having the numbers. But Paul Keating never had the numbers either.

    Many pressed him to do what Mr Keating had done, and play the wrecker. It was not in his nature. His instinct for loyalty to his party’s broader interests was always a stronger impulse than singleminded ruthless ambition.

    Mr Howard saw that and he took full advantage of it. Peter’s innate decency was never going to be a match for Mr Howard’s guile.

    The Costellos never had the all-consuming need to live in The Lodge with which the Howards were so obviously consumed.w.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/15/2598957.htm ]

  28. [The Costellos never had the all-consuming need to live in The Lodge with which the Howards were so obviously consumed.]

    which is, of course, why the Howards lived in Sydney.

  30. [The Costellos never had the all-consuming need to live in The Lodge with which the Howards were so obviously consumed.]

    What a moronic statement

  31. [Last time I checked, the mining boom didn’t begin until 2003, idiot. Hard to ride a “wave” when you weren’t actually riding one.]

    And what was so great about the economy prior to the mining boom?

    Costello did nothing for the economy. He cut spending, waited for the mining boom, then spent a ton of money on middle class welfare. Where was the neoliberal economic reform that we saw under Hawke and Keating?

    Hawke and Keating set up the economy to take advantage of the mining boom and overseas demand. Costello just swung in a hammock.

  32. [ Well Brough has more to offer now… 😀

    Brough’s star was rising Costello’s has been waning. ]

    Just the technicality of winning a seat 🙂

  33. [Many pressed him to do what Mr Keating had done, and play the wrecker. It was not in his nature. His instinct for loyalty to his party’s broader interests was always a stronger impulse than singleminded ruthless ambition.]

    Except that Keating’s challenge saw Labor gain a fifth term of government. Costello didn’t challenge, and the Liberals were only in power for four terms.

    Thus, Keating did way more for his party than Costello. Who is loyal exactly?

  34. Grog

    I’m with you on Kerr and ESJ.

    Landeryou is the blog he’s referring to as a sh!t-sheet.

    I’m guessing we could easily be the “Disagree with the group-think of the tribe and they will chase you over a cliff” lot. We’ve got it down to a fine art. 😀

    Isn’t Kerr missing the point though? I post here because it’s interesting to talk about politics and learn stuff in this format, where you have to be able to debate (which you can’t do on blogs like Bolt’s etc because they are not instantly posted). That’s the only reason I’m here. I have no illusions about influencing anyone or anything.

  35. [Just the technicality of winning a seat ]

    And somehow the good electors of Higgins would not take too kindly to a Queenslander being parachuted into the seat 🙂

  36. Bob,

    Good point.

    It certainly creates a Plan A that was successful versus Plan B scenario. Should create many books of “How to do Politics in Australia”.

    The lesson being “Don’t die wondering if”.

  37. [Except that Keating’s challenge saw Labor gain a fifth term of government]

    Exactly – Keating challenged because he thought he was the only chance the ALP had of winning. If Costello thought the same of himself and yet didn’t challenge, then what does that mean?

  38. Higgins is one of the few Liberal seats which is cosmopolitan enough to not worry about an outsider representing it. Brough would actually be quite a good fit for Higgins, and as a cleanskin he wouldn’t set of a Kroger-Baillieu sh*tfight.

  39. Diogenes, I also thought Kerr and ESJ. At least on the Bludger, however, if you go over the cliff you may learn something on the way down, and in a sort of improbability type place, you can sort of bob up again. I do wish William would let us know whether it’s B flat or A minor we’re to start with at the announcement of Newspoll. Please Terry Gilliam, not F sharp.

  40. [And somehow the good electors of Higgins would not take too kindly to a Queenslander being parachuted into the seat]

    Try as I might, I cannot picture Brough representing a surburban middle class Melbourne seat.

    We Victorians find it hard enough not to lol when one of the McGauran brothers wanders around in a drizabone and at least they have the decency to only do so in the confines of FEG (Far East Gippsland).

  41. [Isn’t Kerr missing the point though? ]

    Err yes. Possum provides great analysis, but that’s too much apparently. He shows the complete bull that was going on with the whole ABS unemployment data and yet, that’s “over-egging”.

    William gives summaries on every poll out there, and yet that’s just throwing a few facts out to a baying pack of readers? (actually I prefer to be a “poster” rather than a passive reader, but whatever..).

    Kerr does a post about Turnbull making a face when he gives a handshake. Make of that what you will.

  42. Psephos, disagree with you about Higgins and Mal Brough, the minister for drizabones. I think the Libs in Higgins would turn up their noses. Military, but not a general, or even a major, what?

  43. Another thoughtful post from Paul Hodgson on LP.

    I’ll spend an hour or so exploring whether I can get something like this “Wanted” ad placed in the Australian:

    “I am a journalist for The Australian. I was formerly political commentator for http://www.crikey.com.au. I was sacked by Crikey. Crikey then employed people like Scott Steele from pollytics and William Bowe from pollbludger. I am now writing opinion pieces for the Australian in which I attack Scott Steele and William Bowe. I see no need whatever to acknowledge this background in my pieces for The Australian. I am told that I should seek help from ethicists and psychologists. The Australian finds nothing amiss with what I am doing. I need advice.”

  46. In a way I agree with Psephos about Higgins being the type of seat that wouldn’t be concerned by an outsider and whilst I have no problem with Brough I am not sure if the Liberal Party should be using Higgins to return a former Howard minister when it has the change to bring in new blood just as it will be in Kooyong.

    The idea of Michael O’Brien into Higgins and Guy into Malvern sounds good on paper but if my memory is correct is O’brien someone Costello likes and I would imaing he will have a big say in who replaces him in a seat that now should be counted as a marginal Liberal seat.

    No I am not expecting the Liberals to lose Higgins but on paper it is now a marginal seat.

  49. Ah, but mexicanbeemer, it ONLY requires a 4.7% swing and even if the Greens don’t win it next time, they’ll win it the time after that, or when Tanner leaves, or….

  50. [My guess at Newspoll is 57-43 (reflecting the good news on avoiding a recession)]

    😆 I forgot about that! Geez, the news cycle goes fast now!

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