The Poll Bludger is still in Summer Edition mode, so pardon me for being less than timely with the news that Roy Morgan attached a question on voting intention to its recent 715-sample phone survey on consumer confidence, which had Labor leading 57.5-42.5. Something like normal service will resume as of tomorrow night’s Newspoll. Other news:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “branches in the Sutherland Shire seat of Cook are being furiously stacked in what moderates say is an attempt to ward off a potential challenge by the far right to the sitting Liberal member, Scott Morrison”. However, Right sources deny any such plan and instead argue the stacking is being conducted in pursuit of the moderates’ own designs against Morrison. Central to the ongoing dispute is Michael Towke, whose preselection win upon the retirement of Bruce Baird at the 2007 election was overturned by the party’s state executive following reports of branch-stacking activities and extravagant claims made in his CV. The seat instead went to the well-connected but factionally unaligned Morrison, who went on to suffer humiliation at the hands of the local Right-controlled branches which refused his membership application a few months after he entered parliament. Talk of ongoing Right designs on the seat received further impetus when Towke secured the position of Cook electoral council secretary. Coorey reports there are rumours afoot that the Right will seek to have state upper house MP Marie Ficarra depose Morrison, making her own position available to Towke – although this was “laughed off” by a “senior Right source”.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Labor national executive has given Kevin Rudd and the five-member national executive committee (Anthony Albanese, Mark Arbib, Mark Butler, Bill Shorten and Bill Ludwig) extensive powers over federal preselections. State branches will not be able to start preselection processes without the permission of the committee, which will further have the power to replace sitting members – significantly including Belinda Neal, the troubled member for Robertson.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Victorian Liberal leader Ted Baillieu, director Tony Nutt and president David Kemp have moved without reference to the party’s administration committee to truncate the preselection process for next year’s state election from eight weeks to four. Baillieu opponents say this is a move to shore up the position of his backers Andrew McIntosh (Kew), Helen Shardey (Caulfield) and Kim Wells (Scoresby). Landeryou also relates rumours about the possible departure of Liberal deputy leader Louise Asher, the member for Brighton.
• Liberal Party members in the Victorian federal seat of Corangamite, which the party lost in 2007, will today vote for a candidate at the next election. The front-runners are said to be Sarah Henderson, former 7:30 Report host and daughter of the late former Geelong state MP Ann Henderson, and Rod Nockles, internet security expert and former Howard government adviser. Others who have been mentioned at various stages include Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, more recently mentioned in relation to Wannon; former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Corangamite electorate council; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, owner of Kings Australia funeral services. (UPDATE: Sarah Henderson wins. See Andrew Landeryou and his comments thread for much confusion over who backed whom.)
• There was renewed talk this week that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden could be moving to the lower house. It was initially suggested he would take the seat of Keilor, expected to be forcibly vacated by controversial Right faction numbers man George Seitz. However, Madden has ruled this out, saying it would not be a good look for him to take the seat given the role of his staffer Hakki Suleyman in the Brimbank City Council controversies which are set to initiate Seitz’s departure. Madden said he did not want, but would not rule out, taking the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon. Prior to the 2006 election, it was planned that Madden would be accommodated in Bundoora due to the reduction in the size of the Legislative Council, but a rearrangement following Mary Delahunty’s departure from Northcote saw him stay put.
• The New South Wales Nationals’ annual state conference has resolved to proceed with an exciting plan in which a candidate in a yet-to-be-determined state electorate will be chosen by an American-style open primary, in which all voters in the electorate will be able to participate.
Harry! dare I be cheecky and suggest Psephos wants Brough in Higgins is it may make the seat winnable for the ALP.
Lets look at Higgins the Liberal vote in the prahran/South Yarra end is falling, all that is winning them that seat at present is the Malvern/Glen Iris/Camberwell booths, if the ALP can shift those booths then that seat may sart looking like Melbourne Ports which is very similar in many ways.
[Ah, but mexicanbeemer, it ONLY requires a 4.7% swing and even if the Greens don’t win it next time, they’ll win it the time after that, or when Tanner leaves, or….]
if the Libs don’t run a candidate and all the dirty campaigbning is outsourced to 3rd parties with a vested interest like a certain recent By-Election.
Adele has a LOT to answer for here 🙂
Thoughtful maybe, but is it accurate? “I was sacked by Crikey” is not right about Christian Kerr, though I am prepared to stand corrected. Saying something like that about the wrong person can cost you a lot of money, as a few people at Crikey have found out over the years.
Zoomster! I agree the Greens will be a better change when Tanner departs or this Government has aged a bit but my point is aimed at 2010.
Wow. I have never seen a more damning 4 corners. It just makes you want to scream in frustration that such an atrocity could ever be allowed to occur.
Farewell to Peter Costello. He will be missed.
[Wow. I have never seen a more damning 4 corners. It just makes you want to scream in frustration that such an atrocity could ever be allowed to occur.]
Well it didn’t help when the Court Government privatised Prison Transport in the late 90’s.
The Liberals will contest melbourne for a simple reason if the Liberals don’t the ALP could quite righty say the Liberals do not care about Melbourne and that could hurt the Liberals across the city of Melbourne
Mexican the only reason why the Libs run in Melbourne and those western suburbs ALP strongholds is for the Senate votes…
BTW the good people of Higgins would most likely want a star to replace Costello and someone who’ll be on the front bench…if Brough got in he’d be on the front bench in a second…
More factionalism we dont need in victoria and the hacks have enough free seats to keep them busy…the question is did Costello and Brough get along…it is a good chance they did.
Did Costello support Brough when he came to Cabinet in 2007 and asked for an increase in the pension rate? (Because the penioners were living on dogfood, remember?) I think the answer is Not Bloody Likely.
No 754
It doesn’t help that Margaret Quirk completely failed to fix the problems she was notified of which resulted in the unnecessary and tragic death of Mr Ward.
No 757
So Bloody What? Pensioners and carers had received sizeable bonuses for a number of years anyway.
Well put simply id rather have Brough in Higgins than a Hack…
Whether or not that happens well we’ll soon see.
Glen! I am fully aware the Liberals on run in certain areas for senate votes.
Mexican BMW,
I agree with you about Prahran/Sth Yarra (i’m actually living there just now myself) looking a bit like parts of Melbourne Ports (eg St Kilda).
The trouble is, Prahan/South Yarra have been retty much like this for years (maybe even decades).
IF there was going to be a transformation of Higgins into an edgy, green-heavy marginal, it would have happened already-
People here don’t vote Liberal because Costello has been the member
GP! Now now control yourself for those pensioners are your strongest supporters.
[BTW the good people of Higgins would most likely want a star to replace Costello and someone who’ll be on the front bench…if Brough got in he’d be on the front bench in a second…]
Brough is an excellent candidate for Higgins and Turnbull would definitely make good use of him on the front bench. Main thing is that he’s still pretty young and has Ministerial experience which are all pluses in my book.
Glen,
Go ahead, make my lunch
Mal Brough in Higgins would turn it into a marginal Labor.
[It doesn’t help that Margaret Quirk completely failed to fix the problems she was notified of which resulted in the unnecessary and tragic death of Mr Ward.]
Margaret Quirk to her credit did try to convince cabinet to terminate the contract when she did find out, but alas she wasn’t able to convince them to do so, and she has since regretted it and at least she’s had the courage to admit she was wrong, which is more than what any Liberal would’ve responded if faced with a similar situation.
No 763
Sometimes even your best supporters need some tough love. The most recent pension increase was simply unaffordable given the unbelievable rate of spending that had preceded the budget via the stimulus packages.
How about GP for Higgins? Just ask Rudd to make sure the election is between semesters.
Mr Squiggle!! gee you have a long memory referring to my old PB name!
Yeah I take your point!
Glen would be a better fit for Higgins!
GG one word…bullbutter!
If the Rudd slide could only take off 1% from Costello’s margin i doubt we’d lose the seat if Brough or anyone else ran in the seat…
Plus let’s look at it this way the Libs need talent on our front bench and here is ready made talent that could fit in really well.
GP,
Cached for future reference.
If you want to cut your own throat, don’t ask me for a bandage.
Mal Brough would be a good Liberal candidate anywhere he stood (inlcuding Solomon)
The problem for Labor with Higgins is that even though it’s fairly marginal on paper, is has Armadale and Toorak in it, and they will vote for anything with a Liberal label on it, come what may. The Labor voting fringes at Prahran-Windsor and Carnegie-Alamein can never match the 70% Liberal vote in Armadale-Toorak. Maybe one day if the seat extends out to Oakleigh, but not now.
# Mex
Much of my memory is stored in my nose – there is more room than other puppets
With due respect Higgins wont be falling to the ALP but if the boundaries were redrawn it could be interesting.
Glen,
As you said, local member withstood the avalanche.
Please Brough, please.
No 766
Frank, yes she did admit she was wrong, but that’s all too easy after a person has needlessly lost their life due to her own incompetence. Furthermore, the Government spun its way out of disaster by proclaiming it was building new vehicles, when it fact all it had done was purchase the same old AIM/GSL vehicles at a cheap price, thereby perpetuating the mistreatment of prisoners.
And please, stop embarrassing yourself and your party by deferring the matter as an inherent problem with the Liberals. Your lot have nowhere to hide on this matter.
Agreed…Mr Squiggle but we dont want what happened to Brough in 2007 to happen to him again down the track (solomon has a tendency to be highly marginal)…
Higgins would suit him nicely…maybe he had a heads up that so many seats would become available before he decided to live in Melbourne…
Wonder what he does for a crust down here?
Toorak makes up less than 10% of the vote in Higgins and the ALP do better in Toorak than the Liberals do in Braodmeadows.
Glen for Higgins!!! Glen For Higgins!!!
Vote early, vote often!
There is a serious arguement for St Kilda to be put in with Prahran/South Yarra and putting Camberwell and Glen Iris into Kooyong that could make things interesting.
P.S this could be done by putting Sth Melbourne and Port5 Melbourne into Melbourne.
[Furthermore, the Government spun its way out of disaster by proclaiming it was building new vehicles, when it fact all it had done was purchase the same old AIM/GSL vehicles at a cheap price, thereby perpetuating the mistreatment of prisoners.]
Actually those vehicles were FORMER Govt Vehicles which were sold to AIMS/GSL when it was first privatised.
GP #758 – Four corners was really disturbing
I’m an east coaster, I associate Australia with sand, surf, sunshine, beautiful women, you know..good things were people can grow and love life
Hearing about that mazda, and the elder dying like he was stock in a cattle truck was really sickening.
I’m no big fan of the indigenous agenda in Oz, but that truly was a story to be ashamed of
Apparently Newspoll shifts to the Libs
No 783
Which makes their spin-doctoring effort even worse. They knew how old and poorly-maintained the vehicles were when they purchased them. The minster was aware of reports indicating that the vehicles were inappropriate. The minister chose to purchase them anyway.
[And please, stop embarrassing yourself and your party by deferring the matter as an inherent problem with the Liberals. Your lot have nowhere to hide on this matter.]
But as I said, it was a system which was created by the Libs privatising it, so it is a bit rich for yourselves and the WA Libs to criticise Labor when it was a Liberal Govt which provided the structure for the system in the first place, and AIMS/GSLK were involved in several other problems in WA, including the infamous Supreme Court Escape and the Govt were so close in cancelling the contract then, but decided to give them one final chance – perghaps that is the problem.
[Apparently Newspoll shifts to the Libs]
Ah so that’s why the big “tune in at 10:15”
the NARROWING!
53-47?
No 784
Hear hear. It was absolutely terrible. There is just nothing else one can say about it. What’s even more mind boggling is that the Government was made aware of these issues several times and did nothing about it. It actually purchased the vehicles that it knew to completely unsuitable for the job!
possibly but even so that is bringing it back to Ruddslide levels…plus it is only one poll of that figure…
[Which makes their spin-doctoring effort even worse. They knew how old and poorly-maintained the vehicles were when they purchased them. The minster was aware of reports indicating that the vehicles were inappropriate. The minister chose to purchase them anyway.]
The problem lies in the lack of vehicles which are actually designed for proper prison transport – even our Police Deptartments are experiencing finding suitable vehicles. Perhaps there should’ve been a ban on Road Transport in areas which reqwuire more than 60 minutes travelling time ?
If you know something Possum, spit it out!
The suspense is killing me. I hope it will last…
This cycle, two polls moved toward Labor, so with Newspoll going the other way it’s a wait and see for the next cycle jobbie. That said, it could come in at 54-56 and have some movement on PPM for Turnbull.
Nothing like the beauty contest to drive column inches.
No 787
Frank, your idiocy is intractable. You simply refuse to accept any proposition that Labor might be at fault. Of course Labor is to blame. It was in Government for 7 years. If it felt the system was so bad, it could have done something about it. But it didn’t do anything. In fact, it simply perpetuated the atrocity.
To then blame the Liberals for the problem is as ridiculous as it is offensive.