Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The Poll Bludger is still in Summer Edition mode, so pardon me for being less than timely with the news that Roy Morgan attached a question on voting intention to its recent 715-sample phone survey on consumer confidence, which had Labor leading 57.5-42.5. Something like normal service will resume as of tomorrow night’s Newspoll. Other news:

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “branches in the Sutherland Shire seat of Cook are being furiously stacked in what moderates say is an attempt to ward off a potential challenge by the far right to the sitting Liberal member, Scott Morrison”. However, Right sources deny any such plan and instead argue the stacking is being conducted in pursuit of the moderates’ own designs against Morrison. Central to the ongoing dispute is Michael Towke, whose preselection win upon the retirement of Bruce Baird at the 2007 election was overturned by the party’s state executive following reports of branch-stacking activities and extravagant claims made in his CV. The seat instead went to the well-connected but factionally unaligned Morrison, who went on to suffer humiliation at the hands of the local Right-controlled branches which refused his membership application a few months after he entered parliament. Talk of ongoing Right designs on the seat received further impetus when Towke secured the position of Cook electoral council secretary. Coorey reports there are rumours afoot that the Right will seek to have state upper house MP Marie Ficarra depose Morrison, making her own position available to Towke – although this was “laughed off” by a “senior Right source”.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Labor national executive has given Kevin Rudd and the five-member national executive committee (Anthony Albanese, Mark Arbib, Mark Butler, Bill Shorten and Bill Ludwig) extensive powers over federal preselections. State branches will not be able to start preselection processes without the permission of the committee, which will further have the power to replace sitting members – significantly including Belinda Neal, the troubled member for Robertson.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Victorian Liberal leader Ted Baillieu, director Tony Nutt and president David Kemp have moved without reference to the party’s administration committee to truncate the preselection process for next year’s state election from eight weeks to four. Baillieu opponents say this is a move to shore up the position of his backers Andrew McIntosh (Kew), Helen Shardey (Caulfield) and Kim Wells (Scoresby). Landeryou also relates rumours about the possible departure of Liberal deputy leader Louise Asher, the member for Brighton.

• Liberal Party members in the Victorian federal seat of Corangamite, which the party lost in 2007, will today vote for a candidate at the next election. The front-runners are said to be Sarah Henderson, former 7:30 Report host and daughter of the late former Geelong state MP Ann Henderson, and Rod Nockles, internet security expert and former Howard government adviser. Others who have been mentioned at various stages include Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, more recently mentioned in relation to Wannon; former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Corangamite electorate council; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, owner of Kings Australia funeral services. (UPDATE: Sarah Henderson wins. See Andrew Landeryou and his comments thread for much confusion over who backed whom.)

• There was renewed talk this week that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden could be moving to the lower house. It was initially suggested he would take the seat of Keilor, expected to be forcibly vacated by controversial Right faction numbers man George Seitz. However, Madden has ruled this out, saying it would not be a good look for him to take the seat given the role of his staffer Hakki Suleyman in the Brimbank City Council controversies which are set to initiate Seitz’s departure. Madden said he did not want, but would not rule out, taking the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon. Prior to the 2006 election, it was planned that Madden would be accommodated in Bundoora due to the reduction in the size of the Legislative Council, but a rearrangement following Mary Delahunty’s departure from Northcote saw him stay put.

• The New South Wales Nationals’ annual state conference has resolved to proceed with an exciting plan in which a candidate in a yet-to-be-determined state electorate will be chosen by an American-style open primary, in which all voters in the electorate will be able to participate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

879 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

Comments Page 17 of 18
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  1. [Your lot have nowhere to hide on this matter.]
    No-one has anywhere to hide on this matter. I was at Docker River in 1974, and there were problems with police treatment of people at Laverton and Warburtonback then. Obviously things have got worse rather than better.

  2. I don’t think these sorts of issues should be reduced to the status of a political football, the fact is the Liberals are in Government therefore the onus is on them to deal with this serious matter.

  4. [Frank, your idiocy is intractable. You simply refuse to accept any proposition that Labor might be at fault. Of course Labor is to blame. It was in Government for 7 years. If it felt the system was so bad, it could have done something about it. But it didn’t do anything. In fact, it simply perpetuated the atrocity.

    To then blame the Liberals for the problem is as ridiculous as it is offensive.]

    But there is a culture in the Dept of Corrections which would’ve made it difficult, if not impossible to make such changes – and it is not just Labor’s fault, it is also the Liberals who privatised the entire process in the first place.

    That is the political fact – so Colin Barnett, who was a member of the Court Govt at the time has as much blood on his hands than Labor.

  5. [Of course. I sincerely hope Barnett fixes this problem.]
    They could start by sacking that public servant who admitted that he was responsible because he is the head of the department!

  7. Frank! That is not a good enough excuse and this is why this issue and similar issues should be above polly nit-picking for both sides have at times mis managed these issues but in saying that regardless of who runs something they are still answerable to the Law and I am sure we know that is where the role of Government comes in.

  8. [Apparently Newspoll shifts to the Libs]

    It must be the instantaneous clear air that Cossie has given Turnbull.

  10. No 801

    The mere fact of privatisation is not a suitable defence to the incompetence of Labor in managing these issues. The fact that it bought back the same vehicles from GSL/AIM, which it knew to be faulty and inappropriate for long haul transport, is a testament to that.

  11. [Frank! That is not a good enough excuse and this is why this issue and similar issues should be above polly nit-picking for both sides have at times mis managed these issues but in saying that regardless of who runs something they are still answerable to the Law and I am sure we know that is where the role of Government comes in.]

    Try telling that to Generic Heffalump, who made those comments about only blaming Labor, I just pointed out that the Privatisation happened under the Libs.

  12. No 802

    Yes, I agree. What a dolt. He didn’t have the guts to front up. At least Quirk did, even though it was too little too late.

  13. Antony Green… looks like I read Uhlmann’s little blurb on the 7 o’clock news right after all…

    Chris Uhlmann @ http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/15/2598926.htm

    [No matter how much Labor MPs have postured about wanting to face Peter Costello at an election, many would now admit it was false bravado.

    It might explain why there was more than the usual bonhomie in Parliament on Monday.]

    So Labor MPs were “posturing”, and “many” (up from “some” at 7pm) would now admit it was “false bravado”. There was bonhomie among the Labor ranks that the man they fear the most is going.

    What a giant of an imagination our Chris has.

  14. Mex BMW – I agree, I’m no mechanic, but how much does it cost to add a functioning air conditioner to a 10-year old Mazda van?

    A couple of hundred dollars????

    one thousand?? times how many vehicles in the fleet? 50?

    I’m just guessing at numbers, but whatever I come up with, it doesn’t make sense to withhold the expense,

  15. No 808

    Privatisation is not a reason for the atrocity. It’s just a cop out for someone who refuses to accept any responsibility even when the facts smack them in the face.

  16. [The mere fact of privatisation is not a suitable defence to the incompetence of Labor in managing these issues. The fact that it bought back the same vehicles from GSL/AIM, which it knew to be faulty and inappropriate for long haul transport, is a testament to that.]

    You obviously don’t understand – maybe they had NO choice in the matter due to the lack of a suitable NEW Vehicle – and then agfain the Private Operator is the main body responsible as THEY set out the policies in the transport of Prisoners.

  17. David Speers on twitter claims that Newspoll looks good for Turnbull. The Aus is advertising the results to be up at 10:15.

  18. Frank I missed GP’s comment that you refer to but knowing GP I would expect him to point the finger at the ALP!

  19. [Privatisation is not a reason for the atrocity. It’s just a cop out for someone who refuses to accept any responsibility even when the facts smack them in the face.]

    But it is a major FACTOR, in why it took place – if it were under Govt control, then there would’ve been stronger safeguards and mechinisoms to deal with such problems.

  20. No 813

    They should have commissioned a new vehicle. A Toyota HiAce is among the several alternatives the Government could have considered. They’re just modified vans – a request for tender for a new fleet should have been commissioned.

    And if you think the Private Operator was at fault, cancel the contract. Bring them to task. Do something. Labor did nothing, despite all the evidence that it was armed with.

  21. Regardless of who owns it there are community standards concerning basic human rights and this gentleman should have had access to Water and there is no excuse and no one can claim political points from this unless they are prepared to deliver higher standards.

  22. No 817

    In all seriousness, the Liberals would also be copping an equal amount of criticism had they been in power when this occurred. It’s just not acceptable. A guy was forced to urinate inside the vehicle, despite repeated attempts to get the attention of the prison guards! That is just not right, regardless of which party you support.

  24. No 819

    No there wouldn’t. Margaret Quirk bought back the same useless vehicles. Clearly her actions evinced no intention to change the situation, despite her public statements to the contrary.

  25. Labor has to put it’s hand up for the 4 Corners case. Ultimately, it was their responsibility. It was way too long after the Libs left to be able to blame them.

  29. It’s pretty sick that people are passing the buck over this one.

    The Liberals shouldn’t have privatised the thing in the first place, Labor should have fixed the corrections department when they had the chance, and the van guards should be on trial for manslaughter.

  33. GP,

    I’m impressed!

    If you and others lay down the guns of rhetoric maybe there is a solution.

    However, is this the extent of your committment or are you prepared to personally do something about it.

  35. Regardless of the condition of the vehicles, there were procedural methods of dealing with transport that could have been implemented. Simple things, like not travelling in the heat of the day, providing regular breaks, providing water, having back-up and emergency procedures in place, first aid training for transport staff. It is not legal to leave an animal in a vehicle, so how is it acceptable to leave prisoners in vehicles?

  37. [A spokesman for Senator Fielding said the evidence put forward by his team had given Senator Wong food for thought. ]

    Yeah – she is probably thinking, how did this guy learn to walk upright.

  38. Hopefully that will be repeated in other polling…

    If that is 40% our primary vote needs to be much higher if we’re to win government in future…

    That being said im happy its not 59-41 or 62-38… 😀

    THE NARROWING THE NARROWING lol

  40. if we take the 53-47 result and subtract 2% for election campaign narrowing what do we get

    A one-term ALP government!!

  42. [It’s pretty sick that people are passing the buck over this one.

    The Liberals shouldn’t have privatised the thing in the first place,

    Of Course.

    Labor should have fixed the corrections department when they had the chance,

    I’m wondering if when trying to do so, they stumbled onto a culture which was resistant to change like Defence

    and the van guards should be on trial for manslaughter.]

    Hopefully Robert Cock will lay charges, but somehow considering his recent record on such things, he probably won’t.

  45. The Coalition’s primary vote is now … two points higher than late last year when Mr Turnbull ousted Brendan Nelson to become opposition leader.

    Must be time for another change in the leadership.

  46. [if we take the 53-47 result and subtract 2% for election campaign narrowing what do we get

    A one-term ALP government!!]

    53-2 = 51.

    And the campaign narrowing generally has the voters going to the incumbent, not the Opposition, so that’s 53+2= 55.

  47. [Regardless of the condition of the vehicles, there were procedural methods of dealing with transport that could have been implemented. Simple things, like not travelling in the heat of the day, providing regular breaks, providing water, having back-up and emergency procedures in place, first aid training for transport staff. It is not legal to leave an animal in a vehicle, so how is it acceptable to leave prisoners in vehicles?]

    Which of course would’ve been done by the private operator – you could have the best vehicles in the world, but without those basic things it would still happen – though I wonder if AIMS/GSL would’ve acted differently if it was a Caucasion prisoner, or if in fact Bail would’ve been given ?

  48. [Might even buy the paper tomorrow what with cossie going and a better than usual newspoll…]
    Yeah get it block mounted! Or even framed!

  49. Key sentence:
    [While Kevin Rudd has maintained a strong lead over Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister]

    so doesn’t sound like any narrowing there…

    With Costello gone, the pressure will be on MT to perform.

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