Morgan: 58-42

The latest Roy Morgan survey of 1804 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 58-42, with their primary vote down 0.5 per cent to 49 per cent and the Coalition’s down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent. Much else to report:

• On Monday, Galaxy published a survey of 1004 respondents showing federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45. The primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition are similar to those from the 2007 election, suggesting the two-party result flatters Labor a little. Furthermore, 17 per cent nominate themselves less likely to vote Labor if an early election is called against 12 per cent more likely. Kevin Rudd was rated “arrogant” by 31 per cent against 47 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, while their respective ratings for being “out of touch with ordinary Australians” were 29 per cent and 48 per cent. However, Rudd performed worse than Turnbull on the innovative measure of “someone who can turn nasty if he doesn’t get his own way”, scoring 43 per cent to Turnbull’s 31 per cent. Peter Brent at Mumble has tables.

• Tasmanian Electrical Trades Union secretary Kevin Harkins apparently plans to proceed with his bid for Senate preselection, despite having been told by Kevin Rudd his chances were “Buckley’s and none”. Harkins was endorsed as candidate for Franklin ahead of the 2007 election, but was compelled to step aside four months beforehand after his colourful activities as a union leader emerged as a political liability. It was reported at the time that the pill had been sugared with offers of “an elevated union position, increased salary and a future Senate seat”. Harkins is the favoured candidate of the Left faction for one of the two safe Senate seats, with incumbent Kerry O’Brien set to be dropped to loseable third. The Hobart Mercury reports that the Left’s position is now likely to go to Australian Manufacturing Workers Union secretary Anne Urquhart, who is seen as acceptable to the Right. The Right’s position at the top of the ticket will remain with the low-profile Helen Polley.

• Michael Owen of The Australian reports on tension in the South Australian Liberal camp over Senate preselection, with Right faction colossus Nick Minchin “warning off” moderate state president Sean Edwards. Minchin says Edwards had undertaken not to seek preselection when he ran for the presidency in 2007 so he could focus on next year’s state election. A “party source” says the Right has secured the postponement of preselection until April next year so a newly elected state council can provide them with a more favourable result, potentially leaving the party unprepared for an early election. The Right’s chief concern is to secure a seat for David Fawcett, defeated in Wakefield at the 2007 election, at Edwards’ expense. Alan Ferguson, who is associated with the Right faction and the conservative Lyons Forum, is “expected to retire” rather than seek another term.

• After holding the seat since Malcolm Fraser’s departure after his 1983 election defeat, David Hawker has announced he will retire as member for Wannon at the next election. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews has a comprehensive form guide of potential preselection aspirants, including “complicated Costello loyalist” Georgie Crozier; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, said to be facing a losing battle against former Howard government adviser Rod Nockles in his bid for the less appealing prospect of Corangamite; Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert Louise Staley, who challenged Kevin Andrews for preselection in Menzies ahead of the 2001 election; former police sergeant and anti-corruption crusader Simon Illingworth; “farmer, vet and former local councillor” Katrina Rainsford; and the similarly credentialled Matt Makin.

• Left faction Victorian state MP Carlo Carli has announced he will not re-contest Brunswick at the next election, perhaps boosting the Greens’ vague chances of snaring the seat. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews once again offers a goldmine of detail on preselection contenders, describing the seat as an “area of conflict” between the competing Left faction camps associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin and Senator Kim Carr. Griffin faction aspirants include former state secretary Eric Locke and Moreland councillor Alice Pryor, while the only identified contender from the Carr camp is 23-year-old Enver Erdogan, a staffer to House of Representatives Speaker Harry Jenkins. Apparently straddling the two camps is Danny Michel, an adviser to Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky. Moreland’s Right faction mayor Lambros Tapinos is also named as a “wild card”.

• Yet more from the House of Landeryou: preselection challenges apparently loom against two senior Victorian state Liberals, Shadow Police Minister Andrew McIntosh in Kew and Shadow Health Minister Helen Shardey in Caulfield. The story in Kew goes that a Josh Frydenberg federal preselection victory in Kooyong would unleash “irresistible pressure” for McIntosh to be dumped in favour of “Costello loyalist” Kelly O’Dwyer. In Caulfield, “local power-broker” Frank Greenstein proposes that Shardey make way for David Southwick, who previously contested the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and was narrowly pipped by short-lived Labor member Evan Thornley for an upper house seat in Southern Metropolitan in 2006. Ted Baillieu is apparently very keen that none of this transpire, as both McIntosh and Shardey are loyal to him.

• The Australian reports the June 30 deadline for Victorian Liberal federal preselection nominations has ratcheted up speculation about Peter Costello’s future plans, with the overwhelming expectation he will seek another term in Higgins. Kevin Andrews is expected to face a challenge in Menzies, but is “believed to have the numbers”.

• UMR Research has published one of its occasional polls on attitudes to republicanism, showing little change since November. Support is up one point to 51 per cent, opposition is up two to 30 per cent. Support for direct election of the president is up a point to 81 per cent, with opposition stable on 12 per cent. Fifty-three per cent support a referendum during the next term of parliament.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,451 comments on “Morgan: 58-42”

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  1. [But the ABC doesn’t charge money for showing community service announcements. It isn’t allowed to.]

    I’m talking about donations of ABC Goods such as ABC Kids stuff and personal appearances by ABC Kids presenters such as a trip to the Play School Set, a meet and Greet with B1 & B2, meeting Eliot Spencer of Rollercoaster etc. And of course said charity refusing the ABC permission to screen said community serives Announcemnt as Paynack.

  5. I’d love to completely boycott the ABC in protest, but then again I’d miss SPOOKS, so that won’t be happening.

  6. What about an ABC Pollbludger show? Live on stage – ALL the stars. See them in the flesh for the first time! Bring the children … or not.

  7. I’m probably showing my ignorance here (ok, I do it with every post), but I was listening to Radio National for a while today and there was a five minute segment of anti Labor vitriol, poorly disguised as humour, by a guy who I think is called Patrick Cook.

    Has anyone heard of this person or know anything about him?

  8. Goodness knows what the “new & improved” Chaser will look like on June 24, all very sanitised & boring, I bet.

  10. evan14
    Yes, Spooks is great. A repeat of the Spook show with the Q&A type progam of a week or so ago would be a superb filler.

  11. [Goodness knows what the “new & improved” Chaser will look like on June 24, all very sanitised & boring, I bet.]
    Hey, Hey it’s Saturday comedy, you know, the type that refuses to upset TV executives.

  12. [I don’t see the connection.]

    Oh you do when it comes from corporate donations – you don’t see most businesses doing it out of the kindness of their hearts – there is ALWAYS some kind of commercial benefit in supporting a worthy charity such as increased PR etc – why do you think Charities drop someone like a hot potato if they’re involved in some kind of controversy and that the reason they give is “Their actions don’t fit in the image of our charity”.

  13. Finns
    [The Revenge of the Tofu Eaters?]
    We can tie some tofu bits at the fag end of our dreadlocks for the show then.

  15. [I’m probably showing my ignorance here (ok, I do it with every post), but I was listening to Radio National for a while today and there was a five minute segment of anti Labor vitriol, poorly disguised as humour, by a guy who I think is called Patrick Cook.

    Has anyone heard of this person or know anything about him?]

    He is a so-called Satirist, and he is a regular guest on Counterpoint.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Cook

  19. [Yes, Spooks is great. A repeat of the Spook show with the Q&A type progam of a week or so ago would be a superb filler.]

    Exactly, and here’s a Spooks spoiler: Ros comes back in a couple of weeks.
    Woohoo!

  21. [Oh you do when it comes from corporate donations – you don’t see most businesses doing it out of the kindness of their hearts ]
    Fair enough, but the ABC isn’t a business, rather, it costs tax payers about $1 billion a year to run, and any profits it makes (like from selling DVDs of The Chaser) must by law be reinvested into new projects.
    [Is Brandis Howie’s love child? Somebody should do DNA test on him.]
    It is hilarious that he didn’t used to look so much like Howard, it is a role he has grown into.

  23. Thanks Frank.

    What struck me was that he was just spouting Liberal Party talking points and accusations as if they were undeniable, self evident, and universal truths, without any attempt to justify or provide evidence to support his rantings.

    I thought he was a supercilious prat, not a satirist.

    But what do I know.

  24. [Fair enough, but the ABC isn’t a business, rather, it costs tax payers about $1 billion a year to run, and any profits it makes (like from selling DVDs of The Chaser) must by law be reinvested into new projects.]

    But providing in kind support to charities is – as I said The Word would’ve been, stop the Chasers, or we won’t be asking for your help in granting wishes, and thus denying both organisations valuable free publicity and kudos – it makes the ABC look good by giving something back to the Community, and it gives “Street Cred” to the Charity that they’ve got major support from the National Broadcaster. Can you imagine if the ABC had a policy of no help to charities whatsoever ? It would make the Chaser’s skit look like a walk in the park.

  26. [Can you imagine if the ABC had a policy of no help to charities whatsoever ? It would make the Chaser’s skit look like a walk in the park.]
    Well, it has to, it has to show some community service announcements.

    And again, I have never thought of the ABC as a business trying to drum up publicity for itself, rather, it has a charter that says it must provide television, radio and internet media that reflects Australian cultural diversity, and isn’t put through a commercial sieve.

  28. [Leigh Sales dumped Stephen Long.]

    If only it was true. But there’s probably some pefectly rational explanation for his absence tonight.

    Perhaps drowned in his own misery?

  29. [Well, it has to, it has to show some community service announcements.

    And again, I have never thought of the ABC as a business trying to drum up publicity for itself, rather, it has a charter that says it must provide television, radio and internet media that reflects Australian cultural diversity, and isn’t put through a commercial sieve.]

    You obviously haven’t seen the “backdoor marketing” of ABC Commercial then. One upon a time for a modest fee you could get an audio and/or video recording of a particular program from your local ABC office. Now you have the full gambit of commercial products available via ABC Shops and normal retailing and it’s all tied in to a particular show, and no it’s not done in house, they are doig distribution deals with commercial organisations such as Universal Music for ABC Music and Roadshow for DVD’s and Uncle Rupert’s Harper Collins for ABC Books.

    And you may not be aware that Hi-5 was orginally concieved to replace Play School and that the Producers dug their heels in and thus the Show was eventually sold to Ch 9 – oh and who can forget the abortive Active Kids show/DVD’s which were sponsored by the Egg Marketing Board as a device to sell the merits of Eggs.

    This has escalated during the Howard Years as a direct result of their funding being cut. Oh and why are the Play School concerts being organised via an outside events company who are booking these concerts in places such as RSL Clubs and Hotel Function Rooms, even though tere is no access to Alcohol and Gaming, iit is setting a bad example when a lot of these places have adequate Community Halls in which to stage these concerts – heck, at a pinch they can use a Loval School’s Auditorium.

  30. Brandis says that Labor inherited the “best financial books in the Western world”.

    The sad thing for him is that the world economy is so bad, that even with $300+ billion worth of debt, Australia will STILL have the “best financial books in the Western world”.

  32. the chaser’s skit is small beans compared to the disgusting “Class We Failed” Daily Telegraph headline, for Christ’s sake!

  34. Here’s another indication – this from Hillary in a Fox interview of all things, that corroborates the view that diplomacy has been full-on in the M East – and that’s no doubt mostly with the Palestinians because of of their fractured composition. No organic stop will remain unpulled, it seems:
    [VAN SUSTEREN: Obviously, here in Cairo, Egypt, and the — it must be particularly important to the administration because not just the president of the United States but the secretary of state is here, as well. Why did you both come?

    CLINTON: Because this is a very important part of our new diplomacy, our outreach, our policy of engagement and partnership. This is something the president promised to do early on in his term. And it is my second trip to Egypt since I’ve been secretary of state.]
    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,525178,00.html

  35. A new fresh shiny Obama with lots of hope behind him is going about trying to wedge off and marginalise the extreme elements from the whole.

    He is uniquely placed to do so having some Muslim family associations and living in a Muslim country in youth – they will see him as someone speaking who might know something.

    Interesting to see where all this heads over the next few years.

    [In Buchenwald, Obama To Target Holocaust Denial

    The speech in Cairo included a scathing indictment of those who question the Holocaust. To do so, he said, “is baseless, it is ignorant, and it is hateful.”
    ………

    “As a boy, I spent several years in Indonesia and heard the call of the azaan at the break of dawn and at the fall of dusk,” he reminisced.

    Obama said his life’s experience has taught him Islam is a religion of peace and justice.

    “The enduring faith of over a billion people,” he said, “is so much bigger than the narrow hatred of a few.”]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/05/in-buchenwald-obama-to-ta_n_211703.html

  36. We had a number of years there were the US Administration used Muslim and Terrorist as interchangeable words. A habit the media picked up, Muslim was made a scary world. Which only served to make enemies where none existed. So how refreshing it must sound to these same people to hear Obama speak this way. Going from the formula Muslim=Terrorist to respect for Islam as a religion of peace. Regardless what the reality of all that is.

  37. Thomas Paine
    [“The enduring faith of over a billion people,” he said, “is so much bigger than the narrow hatred of a few.”]
    Yes, Obama is going about it in the most eloquent but direct way imaginable, from where I sit near the State of Origin sideline with 8 replays available. However, I don’t need a replay of the Egypt speech – Obama scores. Could the right-wing Netanyahu have been thrown a ‘hospital pass’ by the speech and be in line to be crunched by a powerful forward?

    It is indeed an electrifying spectacle to see this huge initiative unfolding.

  39. Finnigan’s query about George Brandis’ being JH’s love-child is probably wide of the mark. Brandis was long identified as a Costello supporter. He was also noteworthy as the alleged originator of the accusation of the former PM as a “lying rodent” – responsibility for which, it must be said, he has vigorously denied.
    Re. Patrick Cook: I don’t know if it’s the same fellow who was a cartoonist with the Bulletin, the Fin Review and the National Times during the 1980s, and also wrote occasional satirical columns in one or more of those publications. My guess is that the PC I’m thinking of would be well into his 60s, but maybe he is just anticipating the rise in pension-eligibility age.

  40. [Re. Patrick Cook: I don’t know if it’s the same fellow who was a cartoonist with the Bulletin, the Fin Review and the National Times during the 1980s, and also wrote occasional satirical columns in one or more of those publications. My guess is that the PC I’m thinking of would be well into his 60s, but maybe he is just anticipating the rise in pension-eligibility age.]

    It is indeed the same Patrick Cook, who must be performing to orders from the producerfs of Counterpoint or else 🙂

  41. Just an idle observation, but commendable of Obama in the Egypt speech, when speaking of religion, not to espouse the view (eg Dawkins) that stupid religious moderates are as bad as the extremists in a way because they provide the basic affirmation that superstition is OK for the unbalanced in their midst, thus unwittingly creating zealots who kill non-believers as it says they should in the quran (and bible for that matter). I think that point was well left out under the circumstances. 🙂

  42. Obama has two big problems:

    1. You cannot be all things to all people, at all the time
    2. If you raise the expectation too high, they are easily disappointed

    The speech I heard wasn’t trying to be all things to anyone, he pretty much laid it on the line, and those that responded negatively came across as the extremists to whom he was giving the finger. The response from FOX news for instance was laughable. No I think he did a good job,and boy can that man deliver a speech.

  44. I think that point was well left out under the circumstances.

    Yes I think so “don’t let this great religion of billions be hyjacked by a few” sounds better than “hey you billion people, why you believe in fairies?”.

  47. [England crashed to one of their most ignominious cricketing defeats of all time, as the Netherlands won the ICC World Twenty20 curtain-raiser at Lord’s by scoring two runs off the final ball amid scenes of scarcely believable drama.]

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/cricket/8082343.stm

    OMG,

    * Economy in total ruins
    * Political leadership in total paralysis
    * Saddle with 2012 Olympics that nobody wants and no money
    * Now Cricket in total ruins

    If England is beaten in tonite World Cup qualifier in Kazakhstan, I would suggest Australian Border Security watch out for new wave of boat people, from England.

    Just as well Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr are still going strong. She loves you, yeah, yeah, yeah.

  48. From Melbourne’s Age this morning:

    [
    Tony Wright and Brendan Nicholson
    June 6, 2009

    SENATOR John Faulkner may not be the sort of Defence Minister who naturally loves the whump of helicopter rotors and the roar of tanks, but he knows a bit about the feelings of old soldiers.

    In 1993, as the minister for veterans affairs in the Keating government, Senator Faulkner took his first overseas trip, leading a group of 14 World War I veterans back to the battlefields of their youth.

    As the old men — all in their late 90s at the time, and gone now — were shuttled by bus across the fields of the Western Front in northern France and Belgium, one of them drifted into despondency. He confided to nurses accompanying the group that he felt unable to continue and wanted to return to Australia. A little sensitive prodding revealed his problem: the old man suffered a form of claustrophobia. He couldn’t abide the chatter on the bus and felt crowded in. He needed space and quiet.

    His plight reached the ears of a coupe of journalists who were travelling with the party and, through them, officials who spoke to Senator Faulkner.

    The Senator had been supplied a limousine by the French Government to ferry him around the battle sites, memorials and graveyards of the Western Front. Without any fuss at all, Senator Faulkner solved the old soldier’s problem.

    The next day, as the buses carrying veterans, war widows, officials and media cruised a motorway of northern France, the minister’s limousine glided by. Sitting happily alone on the back seat was the nonagenarian veteran, no longer demanding to leave the tour.

    Senator Faulkner had taken the old man’s spot on the bus. And that’s the way arrangements stayed for the remainder of the tour — the minister riding along with his veterans, and the lone veteran occupying pride of place in the official limo.]

  50. Australia will always has the lowest debt and deficit of all the major advanced economies under Labor.

    Paul Kelly and the alternate Treasurer, Chris Richardson, like they are seeing:

    [Access Economics principal Chris Richardson said yesterday that his firm was revising its peak unemployment forecast down from 8.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. That’s a big revision. “It’s like being hit over the head with one brick instead of two bricks,” Richardson said. But Rudd and Swan, trapped for months in a spiralling global downturn, see light amid the gloom.

    “I’m still calling it a recession,” Richardson said, reflecting the consensus among economists after the 0.4 per cent GDP increase for the March quarter following the negative December quarter.

    “But this will help confidence, and confidence is important. The more stable indicator of how much trouble we’re facing is the unemployment rate. But Australia’s performance in this downturn has been extraordinary compared to other rich nations.”

    There is a reasonable chance that Australia will avoid a technical recession in this downturn. “Yes, that’s possible,” Richardson said yesterday. Rudd and Swan cannot dare to suggest this because, as everyone admits, the downturn has a long way to run with plenty of bad news ahead. But this is their private hope, a forlorn prospect until this week. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25593641-28737,00.html

    Hey, hey Paul, what about Hawkie/PJK?, they laid the foundation for these little piggies:

    [First, we didn’t commit the same financial excesses as others (thanks to the Howard government); second, we are assisted by our strong trade position with China (thanks to good luck); and, third, the significant economic policy responses “have also played a role” (thanks to the Rudd Government’s stimulus and the RBA’s rate cutting). This is a reminder there is no single explanation for Australia’s favourable position. Both sides of politics have a claim on this outcome.

    The extent of Australia’s superior performance to this stage is stunning. Figures provided by Swan’s office show that for the March quarter, while Australia grew, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development area contracted by 2.1 per cent, the US economy shrank by 1.5 per cent, Britain’s contracted by 1.9 per cent, Germany’s by 3.8 per cent and Japan’s by 4 per cent.]

    yes, Oh what a lovely crisis.

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