The latest Roy Morgan survey of 1804 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 58-42, with their primary vote down 0.5 per cent to 49 per cent and the Coalition’s down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent. Much else to report:
• On Monday, Galaxy published a survey of 1004 respondents showing federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45. The primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition are similar to those from the 2007 election, suggesting the two-party result flatters Labor a little. Furthermore, 17 per cent nominate themselves less likely to vote Labor if an early election is called against 12 per cent more likely. Kevin Rudd was rated “arrogant” by 31 per cent against 47 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, while their respective ratings for being “out of touch with ordinary Australians” were 29 per cent and 48 per cent. However, Rudd performed worse than Turnbull on the innovative measure of “someone who can turn nasty if he doesn’t get his own way”, scoring 43 per cent to Turnbull’s 31 per cent. Peter Brent at Mumble has tables.
• Tasmanian Electrical Trades Union secretary Kevin Harkins apparently plans to proceed with his bid for Senate preselection, despite having been told by Kevin Rudd his chances were “Buckley’s and none”. Harkins was endorsed as candidate for Franklin ahead of the 2007 election, but was compelled to step aside four months beforehand after his colourful activities as a union leader emerged as a political liability. It was reported at the time that the pill had been sugared with offers of “an elevated union position, increased salary and a future Senate seat”. Harkins is the favoured candidate of the Left faction for one of the two safe Senate seats, with incumbent Kerry O’Brien set to be dropped to loseable third. The Hobart Mercury reports that the Left’s position is now likely to go to Australian Manufacturing Workers Union secretary Anne Urquhart, who is seen as acceptable to the Right. The Right’s position at the top of the ticket will remain with the low-profile Helen Polley.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports on tension in the South Australian Liberal camp over Senate preselection, with Right faction colossus Nick Minchin “warning off” moderate state president Sean Edwards. Minchin says Edwards had undertaken not to seek preselection when he ran for the presidency in 2007 so he could focus on next year’s state election. A “party source” says the Right has secured the postponement of preselection until April next year so a newly elected state council can provide them with a more favourable result, potentially leaving the party unprepared for an early election. The Right’s chief concern is to secure a seat for David Fawcett, defeated in Wakefield at the 2007 election, at Edwards’ expense. Alan Ferguson, who is associated with the Right faction and the conservative Lyons Forum, is “expected to retire” rather than seek another term.
• After holding the seat since Malcolm Fraser’s departure after his 1983 election defeat, David Hawker has announced he will retire as member for Wannon at the next election. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews has a comprehensive form guide of potential preselection aspirants, including “complicated Costello loyalist” Georgie Crozier; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, said to be facing a losing battle against former Howard government adviser Rod Nockles in his bid for the less appealing prospect of Corangamite; Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert Louise Staley, who challenged Kevin Andrews for preselection in Menzies ahead of the 2001 election; former police sergeant and anti-corruption crusader Simon Illingworth; “farmer, vet and former local councillor” Katrina Rainsford; and the similarly credentialled Matt Makin.
• Left faction Victorian state MP Carlo Carli has announced he will not re-contest Brunswick at the next election, perhaps boosting the Greens’ vague chances of snaring the seat. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews once again offers a goldmine of detail on preselection contenders, describing the seat as an “area of conflict” between the competing Left faction camps associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin and Senator Kim Carr. Griffin faction aspirants include former state secretary Eric Locke and Moreland councillor Alice Pryor, while the only identified contender from the Carr camp is 23-year-old Enver Erdogan, a staffer to House of Representatives Speaker Harry Jenkins. Apparently straddling the two camps is Danny Michel, an adviser to Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky. Moreland’s Right faction mayor Lambros Tapinos is also named as a “wild card”.
• Yet more from the House of Landeryou: preselection challenges apparently loom against two senior Victorian state Liberals, Shadow Police Minister Andrew McIntosh in Kew and Shadow Health Minister Helen Shardey in Caulfield. The story in Kew goes that a Josh Frydenberg federal preselection victory in Kooyong would unleash “irresistible pressure” for McIntosh to be dumped in favour of “Costello loyalist” Kelly O’Dwyer. In Caulfield, “local power-broker” Frank Greenstein proposes that Shardey make way for David Southwick, who previously contested the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and was narrowly pipped by short-lived Labor member Evan Thornley for an upper house seat in Southern Metropolitan in 2006. Ted Baillieu is apparently very keen that none of this transpire, as both McIntosh and Shardey are loyal to him.
• The Australian reports the June 30 deadline for Victorian Liberal federal preselection nominations has ratcheted up speculation about Peter Costello’s future plans, with the overwhelming expectation he will seek another term in Higgins. Kevin Andrews is expected to face a challenge in Menzies, but is “believed to have the numbers”.
• UMR Research has published one of its occasional polls on attitudes to republicanism, showing little change since November. Support is up one point to 51 per cent, opposition is up two to 30 per cent. Support for direct election of the president is up a point to 81 per cent, with opposition stable on 12 per cent. Fifty-three per cent support a referendum during the next term of parliament.
[SNIP: Quote from deleted comment deleted – The Management.]
If my posts upset you so much, don’t read them.
JV, Obama has two big problems:
1. You cannot be all things to all people, at all the time
2. If you raise the expectation too high, they are easily disappointed
Well why stop there then Frank? Maybe the next scetch could be world vision people walking through starving populations offering them buckets of KFC. It’s not no holds bared. Or maybe abolish all charities, just get the needy to door knock themselves, cold call and send out letters.
[Pick on the charities if there is impropriatry but not the victims.]
Which they were by using the EXACT same devices these charities use in the first place, by portraying sick kids as VICTIMS – which they are anything but – it is virtually telling them “why bother fighting this thing with a positivive attitude when we can feed both your own and celebrity egos by emphasising you’re going to drop dead anyway – yes it may be cruel and callus, but that is the underlying message I can swwe from their modus operandi in getting money.
And before you call me heartless, I’m speaking as a person with a disability who cannot stomach the woe is me type image of charitable organisations, while getting VERY Generous tax benefits while their client base fight over the dregs by jumping so many hoops to get such help it is any wonder why we sometimes don’t even bother asking.
[Well why stop there then Frank? Maybe the next scetch could be world vision people walking through starving populations offering them buckets of KFC. It’s not no holds bared. Or maybe abolish all charities, just get the needy to door knock themselves, cold call and send out letters.]
You obviously don’t get it – you do not understand how the fight for the allmighty Charity Dollar results in so called proffessional fundraisers making more money for themselves, than for the people they purport to assist.
[Maybe the next sketch could be world vision people walking through starving populations offering them buckets of KFC.]
Why not? It would be fair comment on some of the so called aid that has been dumped on starving populations.
Frank may have given me the irrits in the last flame war, but I agree with him on this. The charities are fair game. The charities use the kids. Pretty hard to have a shot at the charities if you make the kids off limits.
I chose the charity that provides my daughter’s post-school program very carefully. There are some I would happily see taken down. Frank could probably name a few too.
Finnigans
[2. If you raise the expectation too high, they are easily disappointed]
True, but so far Obama has far exceeded my expectations. Back in January last year I expressed the hope he would address the M East situation anew. I didn’t really think I’d see anything like the magnificent opening gambit we have just seen, so soon. Which, by the way, is fully supported by an already well-established and comprehensive diplomatic front right through the arab world and in Israel. Yes, you are going to raise expectations with something like the M East just by taking it on, but how fantastic he is getting stuck right in.
[1. You cannot be all things to all people, at all the time]
His speech was anything but that. It was certainly impartial, but criticised and scolded both sides, and made clear there would be demands set. That’s what effective mediation is about sometimes – letting each side know the strengths and weaknesses of their position. It’s absorbing to watch this guy in action.
[I chose the charity that provides my daughter’s post-school program very carefully. There are some I would happily see taken down. Frank could probably name a few too.]
And I should point out that Ch 7 in Perth have a Telethon each year to raise money for Child Research (and the local Kid’s Hospital) and have a “Telethon Child” to put a public face to the appeal – for many years it was a child in a wheelchaie/physical disability, and often the child had a speech problem as well – but more recently they’ve had a Cancer Kids (two of which died shortly afterwards) and kids who don’t have any outward disability but “look normal” – all these were used to delicit sympathy, along with the mauldlin music etc to tug at the heart strings – there was no attempt to paiont a positive aspect of these people’s lives, nor the day to day problems involving difficulties in personal care, transport etc.
And I’ll bet all these Celebrities who attend such fundraisers do it more out of a contractual obligation to the network, than for any Altrustic reasons (though there are some genuine people.
Oh i get it the charities use the dying kids as pawns to raise money for themselves, so we should make fun of the dying kids so that we can expose the charities inappropriate use of the dying kids. Is that how it goes?
[And they have suceeded in playing on your emotions. And the Charities know that and treat the poople they purport to support as a pawn to feather their own nests.]
Pretty sweeping statement. You refer to them as ‘the Charities’ as though they are all tarred with the same brush.
BTW you can’t feather a nest with pawns. 🙂
[Oh i get it the charities use the dying kids as pawns to raise money for themselves, so we should make fun of the dying kids so that we can expose the charities inappropriate use of the dying kids. Is that how it goes?]
In most cases – Yes, the amount of money that gets spent on expensies instead of going to the people they are supposedly there to assist.
[Pretty sweeping statement. You refer to them as ‘the Charities’ as though they are all tarred with the same brush.]
And I know this from 44 years living with Spina Bifida – Charities only want to help those who play by the established rules – no rocking the boat WHATSOEVER – I call it Complient Cripples.
JV, i sincerely hope Obama succeeds. If not, our side of politics will be completely farq for a long long long time.
Hannity & friends will forever saying “we told you so”
162
That’s your experience. My experience is is far more positive.
Steve K
[BTW you can’t feather a nest with pawns.]
Or prawns – they’re warm enough after a while – but the stench … the hatchlings refuse to leave the egg.
Lots of noble indignation from those who have never been on the receiving end of these charities.
[That’s your experience. My experience is is far more positive.]
That’s because you played their little corporate games – try whinging about something or making some sort of constructive criticism – your life within the organisation will suddenly be a lot more difficult.
C’mon frank you’re not meant to agree with my stupid summation.
[JV, Obama has two big problems:]
I think he has a third big problem. There are millions of people in Arab countries that want Obama to help improve their living standards, i.e. they want the U.S. government to do what all the governments in these countries should already be doing.
So a lot of these people want the U.S. to forgo a perceived military hegemony, but replace it with a hegemony where the U.S. government is responsible for the living standards of most Arab countries!
I mean, could you imagine how hilarious it would be if Obama rocked up to Australia and said “The United States is going to work with the Australian government to fight the spread of Polio in Australia!”. But that is effectively what Obama did yesterday:
[And today I am announcing a new global effort with the Organization of the Islamic Conference to eradicate polio. And we will also expand partnerships with Muslim communities to promote child and maternal health.]
Sure this is a great charitable idea, but I think what Obama wanted his audience to appreciate is that it is a complete and utter condemnation of the backwardness of the Governments in this region that they can’t even get their populations immunised. Let’s remember also that the Taliban banned the polio vaccine because they proposed it was just an attempt to sterlise Muslims
[Taliban militants in Pakistan’s northern Swat Valley region are preventing UN officials from administering the Polio vaccine to hundreds of thousands of children with the claim that it is an anti-Muslim sterilization plot]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/27/taliban-denies-polio-vacc_n_180071.html
The fact is, the problems in these countries are mainly the doings of the Governments in those countries. The U.S. has to simultaneously pretend it is going to use less military force, while on the other hand go around fixing up a huge rage of socio-economic problems that have been caused by incompetent and unrepresentative governments.
[Lots of noble indignation from those who have never been on the receiving end of these charities.]
Especially if you live in an outer suburban semi-rural area and your hard working parents decided to build a 2 storey house with appropriate wheelchair accessible shower/toilet and you are REFUSED funding, because you didn’t submit the house plans BEFORE construction started – and this was from a Government Hospital – no reimbursment for moneyt spent either. Oh and being denied community transport cause you aren’t needy enough cos of said house, and being picked on because you complain about wheelchair restraints which weren’t deemed to be safe by another disability organisation.
Finnigans
[If not, our side of politics will be completely farq for a long long long time.]
‘Our side of politics’?? Is politics a Rubic’s Cube?
Yes, and doesn’t all of that possibility of failure and what it could mean at home enhance Obama’s standing as a ‘conviction politician’? He’s gone out there taking a risk for the good of world peace. Not many people get an opportunity to personally initiate something as big as this. I think he is swifty pricking the chubby cheeks of the balloon holders who said he was all piss and wind in the primaries and then main campaign.
[I mean, could you imagine how hilarious it would be if Obama rocked up to Australia and said “The United States is going to work with the Australian government to fight the spread of Polio in Australia!”. But that is effectively what Obama did yesterday]
I imagine the details of this deal were negotiated and agreed before Obama rocked up to announce it.
Frank,
Basically, yeah. Don’t display initiative, go on the waiting list, play by the rules, agree to the photo ops, modify your needs to what can be provided, and don’t complain about obvious injustices and inequalities, don’t expect too much and don’t expect it to be really useful …
Obama delivered his nice speech about democracy in the Muslim world courtesy of the Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt for 30 years thanks to massive US financial aid and who is grooming his son to succeed him. But the main opposition to Mubarak are the Islamist crazies of the Muslim Brotherhood, who would turn Egypt into a Taliban-style theocracy. How to escape this dilemma? I have no idea. Personally I would extend the Israeli security fence so that it encircles the entire Muslim world and leave them to fight it out. (I might exempt Indonesia and Malaysia.)
ShowsOn @ 161
[replace it with a hegemony where the U.S. government is responsible for the living standards of most Arab countries!]
I don’t think it will be seen that way. Obama is trying to repair the tarnished US image as a neutral entity in the world, with a desire to help the less fortunate. When you’re desperate you accept help even from the US. Australia has – it wasn’t polio, but think Coral Sea in the early 1940’s. The 4 Trillion spent on the Iraq excursion would support a lot of vaccination ….
Anyway, I would imagine that he’s already had feedback in spades form the arab nations and through his diplomats as to what will make a difference to attitudes in their areas, and this was reflected in the speech. He wasn’t making it up as he went along.
[Basically, yeah. Don’t display initiative, go on the waiting list, play by the rules, agree to the photo ops, modify your needs to what can be provided, and don’t complain about obvious injustices and inequalities, don’t expect too much and don’t expect it to be really useful …]
Oh and fill in 9 million forms, go through the spanish inqwuisition on your health and personal situation – expect a 28 day wait for any funding to be approved if at all – you can only spend the 12 months of money in one order – oh and the orders are through the two cheapest suppliers – examply I’ve just had 12 months of continence funding via the State Government via Silver Chain – I ordered 2 leg bafgs and the associated tubing to empty said bags – the bags arrived yesterday when ordered from oner company, while the ubing and the other goods I ordered are still to come from a different supplier – they had to get 3 quotes for the stuff ordered.
There was a terrific French satirist, Pierre Desproges, who said that you can joke about everything but not with everyone
scarpat
[There was a terrific French satirist, Pierre Desproges, who said that you can joke about everything but not with everyone]
That’s good. A possible conclusion to be drawn being: If it doesn’t make you laugh, just ignore it and get on with life.
Of course the current moralistic paradigm interprets M Desproges aphorism as:
“You can’t joke about Anything if it offends Anyone.”
My own version is – “It doesn’t matter who you hurt, as long as you get a laugh.”
I object to censorship from the ABC, under pressure from the hypocrites in the commercial media. What the f*** are we meant to watch on Wednesday night for the next two weeks? A repeat of some dud British comedy presumably.
Adam Hills and the Spicks & Specks crew better watch out, the thought police will target them next.
[That’s because you played their little corporate games – try whinging about something or making some sort of constructive criticism]
You have no idea what my involvement is with charities. Secondly it could be that your attitude is seen as a right royal pain in the arse and that’s why you receive large doses of negativity. I have not idea if this is true. Have you tried seeing it from their point of view?
[I object to censorship from the ABC, under pressure from the hypocrites in the commercial media. What the f*** are we meant to watch on Wednesday night for the next two weeks? A repeat of some dud British comedy presumably.
Adam Hills and the Spicks & Specks crew better watch out, the thought police will target them next.]
I’m wondering if there are some kind of commercial pressures inlved as no doubt the ABC would’ve aired Community Services Announcements from Make A Wish, as well as providing stuff in kind such as ABC Kids product and personal appearances from the Bananas in Pyjamas, Play School etc (Wiggles aren’t owned by Aunty, only get their stuff released via ABC Kids etc.) I can well imagine the ultamtion to ABC Management – do something to thnose Chasers, or else we won’t be asking for your product fo use by our Charity.
[Merkel Backs Obama on Push for Accord in Middle East]
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/06/world/europe/06prexy.html?hp
Psephos
Has Halliburton got a fencing division do you think?
[You have no idea what my involvement is with charities. Secondly it could be that your attitude is seen as a right royal pain in the arse and that’s why you receive large doses of negativity. I have not idea if this is true. Have you tried seeing it from their point of view?]
I see you are defending the Tin Pot Dictators who run charities and play favourites by the type of syncophant you are to their organisations – if you know the right people/channels you get what you want, but raise legitimate issues and you’re treated with contempt
Very disappointed with the ABC, they don’t deserve the extra funding from the Rudd Government, particularly as their news/current affairs coverage is up to shit and little more than blatant pro-Liberal Party propoganda.
Psephos
[I would extend the Israeli security fence so that it encircles the entire Muslim world]
You can see form the article TP linked that Obama stands ready to provide the maintainance on your proposed erection. Halliburton miss out:
[A day after he sought to mend fences with the Muslim world in Cairo, President Obama declared Friday that “the moment is now” to press for a Middle East settlement, but he put Israelis and Palestinians on notice that it was up to them to make “difficult compromises.”]
And I deplore hack conservative radio talk show hosts, like Alan Jones/Ray Hadley/Steve Price, determining what I’m allowed to watch on my TV screen.
Shame on the ABC and the gutless people running that organisation.
186 “maintenance” – naughty Coopers
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/us-unemployment-hits-94-but-job-losses-slow-20090605-bynr.html
[
The US unemployment rate surged to 9.4 percent in May, while the number of job losses slowed to a better-than-expected 345,000, government data showed Friday.
The report offered conflicting signals about a weak labor market, but suggested that the massive pace of job cuts linked to a slumping economy appeared to be easing.
The number of jobs shed in the economy was much lower than the 520,000 expected and better than the revised figure of 504,000 in April. It was also about half the monthly decline of the past six months.
But the unemployment rate, based on a separate survey of households, rose sharply from 8.9 percent to a worse-than expected 9.4 percent.]
[Shame on the ABC and the gutless people running that organisation.]
Hang on. If the ABC is run by gutless people how is it that they have an anti ALP bias according to several posters here? A gutless ABC would be kowtowing to the government of the day. There seems to be a flaw in the argument.
[I don’t think it will be seen that way. Obama is trying to repair the tarnished US image as a neutral entity in the world, with a desire to help the less fortunate. When you’re desperate you accept help even from the US.]
The fact people need help from the U.S. is a condemnation of the governments that rule over these people. They need to accept that when Obama says that he is interested in the human rights, health, education, and well being of people in Muslim dominated countries, what he is actually saying is “If you want things to change, you must attack your government’s from within, because when my country attacks your governments from without, they fund another heap of terrorists who end up attacking my country.”
[I’m wondering if there are some kind of commercial pressures]
I doubt it, just the ABC managing director Mark Scott paranoid that this could get turned into a political football, and be used by M.P.s to attack the ABC’s funding and / or independence.
[I see you are defending the Tin Pot Dictators who run charities and play favourites by the type of syncophant you are to their organisations]
Dare anyone to spend a day in a sheltered workshop before they give one of these charities money.
[Oh and fill in 9 million forms]
and half of those need to be signed by your GP, who will charge, and it’s not covered by medicare.
And having to prove every year/time that the permanent disability still exists.
And that’s the charities – don’t get us started on the Government ‘services’.
[I doubt it, just the ABC managing director Mark Scott paranoid that this could get turned into a political football, and be used by M.P.s to attack the ABC’s funding and / or independence.]
I’m pretty sure commercial considerations were also taken into account as well.
U.S. unemployment rate up to 9.4%
But jobs lost in May (345,000) is lowest since last September.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31121258/
[don’t get us started on the Government ’services’.]
Oh I won’t believe me.
What do we watch instead at 9PM on Wednesday? Repeats of THE NEW INVENTORS?
I can’t wait!
Mark Scott is a conservative hack!
[I’m pretty sure commercial considerations were also taken into account as well.]
But the ABC doesn’t charge money for showing community service announcements. It isn’t allowed to.
[What do we watch instead at 9PM on Wednesday?]
Put in SBS Rockwiz. It will put Spicks & Specks into shame.
[What do we watch instead at 9PM on Wednesday? Repeats of THE NEW INVENTORS?
I can’t wait!
Mark Scott is a conservative hack!]
Some 3rd rate British Sitcom sitting on the shelves – like Dad’s Army 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfQwHb1pWPE
There’s probably another series of MY FAMILY they haven’t shown yet LOL