The latest Roy Morgan survey of 1804 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 58-42, with their primary vote down 0.5 per cent to 49 per cent and the Coalition’s down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent. Much else to report:
• On Monday, Galaxy published a survey of 1004 respondents showing federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45. The primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor and 40 per cent for the Coalition are similar to those from the 2007 election, suggesting the two-party result flatters Labor a little. Furthermore, 17 per cent nominate themselves less likely to vote Labor if an early election is called against 12 per cent more likely. Kevin Rudd was rated “arrogant” by 31 per cent against 47 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, while their respective ratings for being “out of touch with ordinary Australians” were 29 per cent and 48 per cent. However, Rudd performed worse than Turnbull on the innovative measure of “someone who can turn nasty if he doesn’t get his own way”, scoring 43 per cent to Turnbull’s 31 per cent. Peter Brent at Mumble has tables.
• Tasmanian Electrical Trades Union secretary Kevin Harkins apparently plans to proceed with his bid for Senate preselection, despite having been told by Kevin Rudd his chances were “Buckley’s and none”. Harkins was endorsed as candidate for Franklin ahead of the 2007 election, but was compelled to step aside four months beforehand after his colourful activities as a union leader emerged as a political liability. It was reported at the time that the pill had been sugared with offers of “an elevated union position, increased salary and a future Senate seat”. Harkins is the favoured candidate of the Left faction for one of the two safe Senate seats, with incumbent Kerry O’Brien set to be dropped to loseable third. The Hobart Mercury reports that the Left’s position is now likely to go to Australian Manufacturing Workers Union secretary Anne Urquhart, who is seen as acceptable to the Right. The Right’s position at the top of the ticket will remain with the low-profile Helen Polley.
• Michael Owen of The Australian reports on tension in the South Australian Liberal camp over Senate preselection, with Right faction colossus Nick Minchin “warning off” moderate state president Sean Edwards. Minchin says Edwards had undertaken not to seek preselection when he ran for the presidency in 2007 so he could focus on next year’s state election. A “party source” says the Right has secured the postponement of preselection until April next year so a newly elected state council can provide them with a more favourable result, potentially leaving the party unprepared for an early election. The Right’s chief concern is to secure a seat for David Fawcett, defeated in Wakefield at the 2007 election, at Edwards’ expense. Alan Ferguson, who is associated with the Right faction and the conservative Lyons Forum, is “expected to retire” rather than seek another term.
• After holding the seat since Malcolm Fraser’s departure after his 1983 election defeat, David Hawker has announced he will retire as member for Wannon at the next election. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews has a comprehensive form guide of potential preselection aspirants, including “complicated Costello loyalist” Georgie Crozier; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, said to be facing a losing battle against former Howard government adviser Rod Nockles in his bid for the less appealing prospect of Corangamite; Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert Louise Staley, who challenged Kevin Andrews for preselection in Menzies ahead of the 2001 election; former police sergeant and anti-corruption crusader Simon Illingworth; “farmer, vet and former local councillor” Katrina Rainsford; and the similarly credentialled Matt Makin.
• Left faction Victorian state MP Carlo Carli has announced he will not re-contest Brunswick at the next election, perhaps boosting the Greens’ vague chances of snaring the seat. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews once again offers a goldmine of detail on preselection contenders, describing the seat as an “area of conflict” between the competing Left faction camps associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin and Senator Kim Carr. Griffin faction aspirants include former state secretary Eric Locke and Moreland councillor Alice Pryor, while the only identified contender from the Carr camp is 23-year-old Enver Erdogan, a staffer to House of Representatives Speaker Harry Jenkins. Apparently straddling the two camps is Danny Michel, an adviser to Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky. Moreland’s Right faction mayor Lambros Tapinos is also named as a “wild card”.
• Yet more from the House of Landeryou: preselection challenges apparently loom against two senior Victorian state Liberals, Shadow Police Minister Andrew McIntosh in Kew and Shadow Health Minister Helen Shardey in Caulfield. The story in Kew goes that a Josh Frydenberg federal preselection victory in Kooyong would unleash “irresistible pressure” for McIntosh to be dumped in favour of “Costello loyalist” Kelly O’Dwyer. In Caulfield, “local power-broker” Frank Greenstein proposes that Shardey make way for David Southwick, who previously contested the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and was narrowly pipped by short-lived Labor member Evan Thornley for an upper house seat in Southern Metropolitan in 2006. Ted Baillieu is apparently very keen that none of this transpire, as both McIntosh and Shardey are loyal to him.
• The Australian reports the June 30 deadline for Victorian Liberal federal preselection nominations has ratcheted up speculation about Peter Costello’s future plans, with the overwhelming expectation he will seek another term in Higgins. Kevin Andrews is expected to face a challenge in Menzies, but is “believed to have the numbers”.
• UMR Research has published one of its occasional polls on attitudes to republicanism, showing little change since November. Support is up one point to 51 per cent, opposition is up two to 30 per cent. Support for direct election of the president is up a point to 81 per cent, with opposition stable on 12 per cent. Fifty-three per cent support a referendum during the next term of parliament.
Typical pro-Labor Morgan poll. I don’t think anyone takes them seriously anymore.
From the other thread:
[Frank, drop the hate.]
So it’s ok for the Tofus to Hate the Laborites, but we Laborites have to bite our tongues.
Not on your nelly I will – two can play at that game.
Greens to retain Fremantle at the next state election.
😀
[This article quotes a NSW Nielsen poll with a 53-47 2pp.]
What!? NSW Labor is the most hated party / government in the country, yet the Libs can’t even pull a double digit lead?
O’Farrell should be sacked.
William, any idea about this Nielsen poll mentioned in this article?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/05/2590885.htm
No 4
Still a crushing victory for the Libs Showy.
[William, any idea about this Nielsen poll mentioned in this article?]
Wasn’t that the one a short while ago that did Preferred Premier of the 2PP is for some reason.
NSW poll now mentioned in NSW thread (by me).
No 5,
Typically, in that article, Sartor thinks his shit doesn’t smell.
[What!? NSW Labor is the most hated party / government in the country, yet the Libs can’t even pull a double digit lead?
O’Farrell should be sacked.]
As bad as the NSW Government is, I can’t bring myself to vote Liberal in 2011, I’ll probably vote Green(not that it matters in blue ribbon Liberal territory on Sydney’s North Shore).
[Greens to retain Fremantle at the next state election.
😀 ]
In your dreams 🙂 If Labor pre-select appropropriately then Adele’s futire isn’t as assured as you contend. And as for the Fremantle ALP Branch, you whinge when Labor preselect a local Mayor, and you still would’ve whinged if Party Office preselected someone NOT living in the electorate.
They wouldn’t be happy in anyone exexpt for a local union hack, who happens to be a Branch Member.
[Still a crushing victory for the Libs Showy.]
Even with optional preferential voting?
It would be 60/40 now if John Brogden was leader. Now would’ve been his time.
Sartor’s a dropkick. He might think he’s some potential messiah but next to no one in caucus likes him and he’d be less popular than Rees.
Keneally or Tebbut should be next up.
[In your dreams If Labor pre-select appropropriately then Adele’s futire isn’t as assured as you contend. And as for the Fremantle ALP Branch, you whinge when Labor preselect a local Mayor, and you still would’ve whinged if Party Office preselected someone NOT living in the electorate.
They wouldn’t be happy in anyone exexpt for a local union hack, who happens to be a Branch Member.]
Blah blah blah.
[Still a crushing victory for the Libs Showy.]
Perhaps, but Rees is catching up, and if O’Farrell is still leader in 2011 & the religious right of the Liberals cause trouble, you can’t completely write Labor off.
No 13
Ugh. Tebbutt is useless. Keneally is mildly competent but she’s invisible.
Excellent to see something new in the world of pshephing:
‘Someone who turns nasty when he doesn’t get his own way.’ Rudd handily outpoints Turnbull on the measure.
Punters have got a reasonable fix on Rudd on this issue. Turnbull is giving them problems on this issue. There could be several reasons:
(1) Turnbull is so frightened of the divisions of his party that he does not try to get his own way very often. So if he doesn’t try to get his own way, how would punters know what is really like when truly disappointed?
(2) The economy keeps shying away from the recession, so Turnbull doesn’t get his own way there but when tried to get nasty about that in Parliament he wasn’t very good at it.
(3) The punters have forgotten the story about what Turnbull did when thwarted in a certain business arrangement of some note.
(4) The punters don’t really spend much time thinking about Turnbull because they don’t want to waste their time.
[Blah blah blah.]
Hit another raw nerve haven’t I.
[(1) Turnbull is so frightened of the divisions of his party that he does not try to get his own way very often. So if he doesn’t try to get his own way, how would punters know what is really like when truly disappointed?]
Turnbull’s problem embodies the problem with consensus leading full stop. Conviction rules. Stand for something, make enemies (and friends), and move the country forward.
[Perhaps, but Rees is catching up, and if O’Farrell is still leader in 2011 & the religious right of the Liberals cause trouble, you can’t completely write Labor off.]
Another required ingredient would be half of the front Labor bench retiring at the election.
GP
Sounds good, but if Turbull put his strongly held global warming convictions on the table in Shadow Cabinet today, by tonight he would be gone.
[Turnbull’s problem embodies the problem with consensus leading full stop. Conviction rules. Stand for something, make enemies (and friends), and move the country forward.]
The problem is Turnbull is a liberal leader, but he still has Howard’s predominantly conservative party behind him. If Turnbull could get more young urban candidates pre-selected, it would make it a heap easier for him to move to the political centre.
Isn’t there something ironic about Ricky Ponting wearing a VB hat at a press conference while chastising Symonds for “an alcohol related incident”?
No 21
Good. Then we can get thrashed at the next election and the imbeciles would be gone.
[Sounds good, but if Turbull put his strongly held global warming convictions on the table in Shadow Cabinet today, by tonight he would be gone.]
Exactly, he is a centrist politician trying to lead a predominantly conservative party.
I think Turnbull and Rudd are extremely close ideologically, but Turnbull is leading a party that disagrees with his views, while Rudd is leading a party that agrees with his.
GP
*hearty grin*
It seems clear to me that the Coalition will never get back in while they refuse to do something serious about global warming. The Nationals have pretty well nailed their colours to the mast, as in over their dead bodies.
Is it time for the Coalition to split up in this Opposition?
Silvio and Rupert seem to have really fallen out. Silvio takes umbrage at what I would think was a very reasonable comment.
[Headlined The Clown’s Mask Slips, The Times on Monday called Mr Berlusconi a “chauvinist buffoon who cavorted with young women and abused his position by offering them political positions while treating the Italian public with utter contempt”.
The London daily followed up with a commentary by Mary Beard, a Cambridge professor of classics, comparing Mr Berlusconi behaviour with the “sexual frolics” and cover-ups of the emperor Tiberius.
Mr Berlusconi has denied having a sexual relationship with teenager Noemi Letizia, following accusations by his wife, Veronia Lario, that he “frequents minors”. Ms Lario is seeking a divorce.]
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/076c4b84-50f5-11de-8922-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss&nclick_check=1
GP is correct. The Liberals need a leader who is prepared to crash or crash through. (sorry GP if I am mangling your comment).
Turnbull is probably not capable, but he may be when he faces political oblivion. (Soon).
I don’t give a toss about the Nats (or the Greens) for politics to serve our country we need a strong Liberal party, putting forward alternative policies.
Sadly I don’t think it will happen. Ergas tax review – pulped. Anderson review – pulped. 🙁
Diogenese
I don’t think Tiberius felt the need to cover up anything. On the contrary, he felt a somewhat strong need to uncover everything.
When last I saw something on the topic, which was two or three weeks ago, Berlusconi’s popularity rating was higher than that of Rudd. The Italian Opposition is hardly something to die for.
[Hit another raw nerve haven’t I.]
You’ve never hit one so why would you have done so now?
[GP is correct. The Liberals need a leader who is prepared to crash or crash through. (sorry GP if I am mangling your comment).]
Nope, you didn’t mangle. It’s my position. Howard was like this, despite all the contentions that he destroyed the party. You need to be strong and have convictions or voters can see right through you. Australians have a remarkably sensitive bullshit meter.
ruawake
I agree that we all need a cohesive, thoughtful Opposition that develops strong critiques of Government policy and develops credible alternative policies. This is precisely what we do not have at the moment.
It is hard to see the Coalition fixing itself when it has such a substantial rump of fixated duds within the ranks.
I DO hope the Libs pick David Southwick for Caulfield. The man is a first-class nong, his family is widely disliked in the Jewish community, and he might just hand the seat to Labor if Labor can find a good Jewish candidate.
What relation is Louise Staley to Tony Staley?
[You need to be strong and have convictions or voters can see right through you.]
So that’s a big tick for Rudd is it?
After all, their Newspoll 2PP peaked at 63, and is currently at 55. Barnett’s peaked at 55.
Not to mention Rudd is the most popular PM in history only second to Hawke.
[ Hit another raw nerve haven’t I.
You’ve never hit one so why would you have done so now?]
ITs seems I ALWAYS hit a raw nerve with the Tofu Brigade when I DARE say something contrary to their sacred Adele Carles and other Green “Personalities”. For some reason they have to resort to personal attacks when such comments are made by ALP Supporters, and I don’t see the same amount of vitriol wwhen Glen and GP make similar comments.
Anyone seen the new Star Trek film?
[So that’s a big tick for Rudd is it?]
I can’t give you an unbiased answer.
SBS news are a joke, they had Swanny talking with a caption saying WAYNE SWAN, OPPOSITION LEADER.
Wishful thinking on their behalf? Wonder if they have started call Turnbull PM 😉
They also are still beating up the ‘Rudd getting gift of ute” story and even said the opposition are going to keep up the pressure to get another ministerial scalp! lol, so according to them Rudd will be forced to resign any day now.
This is off the subject but I just wanted to answer a question that Frank Calabrese asked in a blog during the fremantle by-election . No mate my brother and I are not related to Sam Wainwright . Oh and by the way I object to the term Failed yes I didn’t win but I came a good second a long way ahead of the rest of the pack and lets not forget I was up against the popular late Mayors wife Sandra Gregorini and we were fighting for her husband seat on council in reality she was always going to be a shoe in.
[I DO hope the Libs pick David Southwick for Caulfield. The man is a first-class nong, his family is widely disliked in the Jewish community, and he might just hand the seat to Labor if Labor can find a good Jewish candidate.]
I’d be careful about Jewish Candidates winning it for Labor, as the Tofu Brigade got their noses out of joint cos I dared mention that Peter Tagliaferri had the Italian Vote more or less tied up.
[SBS news are a joke, they had Swanny talking with a caption saying WAYNE SWAN, OPPOSITION LEADER.
Wishful thinking on their behalf? Wonder if they have started call Turnbull PM 😉
They also are still beating up the ‘Rudd getting gift of ute” story and even said the opposition are going to keep up the pressure to get another ministerial scalp! lol, so according to them Rudd will be forced to resign any day now.]
See what happens when SBS gets it’s funding cut by Conroy – they go Feral.
Is it Caulfield or Balaclava? I used to live around the corner from the Inkerman Hotel. I agree with Adam. The Jewish vote is all important.
Are the shops still closed on Saturday?.
Our politics really are dull, dull, dull…
The Hesbollah Party in Lebanon say they are trying to be reasonable.
So their policy is not to ban whisky, which we all know is a sin, but the policy is to ban importing it from Israel; this avoids the wedge and does not offend the Lebanese Christian vote.
Meanwhile, a group of Shi-ites who compete electorally with Hesbollah have had 38 cars burned in the run-up to the elections and had their party office molotov cocktailed.
What’s wrong with tofu?
[they have to resort to personal attacks]
Why bother accusing others of personal attacks when you engage in them yourself?
Oh, you don’t classify yours as personal attacks. Silly me.
Boer it is funny that you mention that since bleeding hearts are usually up in arms when the lunacy of some lebanese citizens in Australia is questioned.
[What’s wrong with tofu?]
Don’t tell me you are a Vegan ?
Oh well, I’ll have to refer to them as the Mung Bean Collective 🙂
[I can’t give you an unbiased answer.]
Therefore it’s a yes :0
Psephos
*hearty chuckle*
Frank and some Green bludgers have been conducting a flame war in the previous thread and Frank’s inspirations including branding them ‘tofu munchers’ or some such thing.
I’m not a vegetarian, but you don’t have to be to eat tofu. It’s a staple of Asian cooking.
Actually, the flame war managed to cross over into this thread as well.