Morgan: 60-40

The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan survey has Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 59-41 to 60-40. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 50 per cent, while the Coalition’s is down 1.5 per cent to 34 per cent. The balance is evenly distributed among the Greens, Family First and others.

Other news:

• Antony Green tells you everything you need to know about all this double dissolution talk.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal contest to replace Brendan Nelson in Bradfield could develop into a contest between two big conservative guns: The Australian’s opinion page editor Tom Switzer, and John Howard’s legendary former chief-of-staff Arthur Sinodinos.

• The Federation Press will publish a self-explanatory volume entitled Australia: The State of Democracy, edited by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin of the Democratic Audit of Australia, on June 15.

• Brian Costar of Swinburne University of Technology reviews the implications of the Victorian Ombudsman’s recent report into Brimbank City Council and the related internal matters of the Victorian ALP.

• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee has published the final report of its Inquiry Into Political Donations and Disclosure, which I won’t claim to have read at this stage.

• Two electoral events in Western Australian tomorrow: the daylight saving referendum, which you can discuss here, and the Fremantle by-election, which you can discuss and read about in very great detail here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

886 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

Comments Page 16 of 18
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  1. [Australia a a very logical place for a large steel industry because we have all the components and cheap energy ]
    Our energy is unrealistic cheap because it is overwhelmingly sourced from fossil fuels. Once our power sources no longer put CO2 in the air, it will be much more expensive. At least double, if not triple.

  2. A person who is now 70 was born in 1939. They are too young to remember the great days of the Curtin government, but they grew up in the wake of the defeat of Chifley in 1949, the Korean War and the Cold War. As adults they experienced full employment, home ownership and a standard of living which their parents in the Depression never had. Naturally they gave Menzies the credit for this and voted for him. Many of them have stuck with the Libs the rest of their lives.

    But I still don’t know why they are the “blue generation.” Is this a political characterisation? Or are they all really depressed?

  3. Tom

    Very good idea. It is also more energy efficient and value added for us to be exporting steel rather than iron ore and coal.

  4. Shows On, do you know how S.A. compares to the other States in relation to power production? I know that Vic. has to import powere from both NSW and Tas. at times of high demand.

  5. But wait there’s more – here is the Greens position a few days before.

    [ “The liquid assets test threshold will now increase from $2,500 to $5,000. This will ensure that people who lose their job will not be forced to eat through their savings before being allowed to receive Government benefits.”

    “We need to ensure that in this time of financial crisis we focus our efforts to look out for those who will be the hardest hit by the downturn,” said Senator Siewert. ]

    http://rachel-siewert.greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/greens-achieve-win-liquid-assets-test

    Tee Hee. 😉

  6. [But I still don’t know why they are the “blue generation.” Is this a political characterisation? Or are they all really depressed?]

    A pun on blue rinse.

  8. Ore renewable energy will be on a large scale and because of the desert and low density pasture where land is cheap because there are not many land uses to compete with solar. We have all this good for solar land domestically so we will not have to import it unlike Europe and Japan which will have to import most of their electricity from North Africa and China/Mongolia respectively.

  10. The new solar power station will be built close to an existing power stations. It is not economical to built a high voltage line into the desert.

  11. [Shows On, do you know how S.A. compares to the other States in relation to power production? ]
    Over the course of an entire year, S.A. only requires a small net import of power from Victoria. The problem is during the summer where on some days 1/3 of the power comes from Victoria at extremely high prices.

    Victoria is a net exporter of power if you include its share of the Snowy Mountains Hydro scheme. NSW is a net importer of power from Queensland. There’s heaps of detail in this PDF:
    http://www.ret.gov.au/energy/Documents/facts%20statistics%20publications/key_facts_aust_energy_industry.pdf

  13. The tv generations got to start with elvis, the beatles and so on. Not surprising default attitudes began to shift left. The earlier gens had 74s newspapers and radio. Also when was the advent of 38s and stereo?

  17. I don’t think Quentin Crisp could ever, in any one’s wildest imagination, be thought to belong to the blue rinse set. He would have screaming from the merest suggestion.

  18. TP

    I just bought a brand new turntable that plays 78s, 45s, 33.3s. Direct drive with magnetic cartridge, diamond stylus AND USB port. 🙂

    My major hobby is transferring the close to 1,000 vinly recordings I have to digital. The only problem I have is Ms ru loves op shops and the collection keeps growing by 20 or so a week. 🙂

  20. cf Land and Water Australia.

    Farming contributes enormously to Australian standard of living.

    Have a look at their list of publications. Good stuff for information-based decision-making.

    CSIRO has been gutted by cuts by all stripes of government cutting, cutting, cutting… expecting CSIRO to take up any slack for LWA is pipe dream stuff.

    I am not aware of any duplication in research. If there was, someone could point to it.

  21. So if the ALP had won in 1961 then more of those born before 1947 would vote for them because of the good times under them in the 1960`s including the more comprehensive public health system we would have had earlier. Australia would be a much better place.

  22. Boerwar

    Farming contributes to the standard of living of farmers (along with subsidies from the other 90% of taxpayers who live in cities). Farmign is less than 3% of GDP, adding both food and other crops like cotton. It is trivial, though we pretend otherwise. Hairdressing is a bigger industry than most crops.

    Six large cotton farms near Deniloquin use more water permits than Adelaide. We are now building a desal plant for over $1 billion. Those farms are worth much less, yet consume more water. Better to get rid of the farms. Curious hat most right wingers park heir competitive market ideologies to the side when pork barrelinh in the bush 🙂

  23. Boerwar

    LWA is funded by:

    •CSIRO Land & Water
    •Department of the Environment and Heritage
    •Murray Darling Basin Commission
    •National Land & Water Resources Audit
    •CSIRO Plant Industry
    •CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

    They then use this funding to fund other projects, they are a cosy little office in Canberra churning funds – get rid of them.

  25. [CSIRO has been gutted by cuts by all stripes of government cutting, cutting, cutting… expecting CSIRO to take up any slack for LWA is pipe dream stuff.]

    CSIRO is about to rake in billions in royalties from companies such as Microsoft, Intel, Dell, HP, Toshiba and Nintendo because they hold a patent on wireless LAN technology.
    http://yro.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=09/04/22/1545238&from=rss
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/22/2549678.htm

  26. Scorpio

    None – but I understand your asking. I had an attention seeking cat trying to sit on my lap as I typed that last post.

  28. Is it just me who’s stopped listening to anything the CSIRO says anymore after they agreed to become the Howard Government’s Ministry for Scientific Propaganda?

  29. Dio

    I have a mixed view on CSIRO. There are different parts of it and some do some great work on a few areas that interest me. However they are perhaps too narrowly focused on rural science IMO.

  30. RUawake at #768

    Where did you get the turntable with the USB?

    I’ve been looking for one of these things, but the JB Hi Fi stores in Melbourne that I have checked with say they are out of stock and won’t have any for a few more months

  31. [The only problem I have is Ms ru loves op shops and the collection keeps growing by 20 or so a week]

    Glad to see the 🙂 after that sentence!

  32. Yes polyquats @ 775. That’s good news for Aust.

    For those who follow the footy, Geelong are at $2.3 to win the flag this early in the season. Maybe they could go through unbeaten? It’s a much closer competition in League.

  34. “The idea of India — a vibrant, secular, plural, resurgent nation that can transcend its myriad differences and complexities to reaffirm an essential unity of purpose — received a resounding victory today as the world’s largest electorate shed the politics of extremes.” (Calcutta Telegraph). Congress smashed *both* the BJP Hindu chauvinists *and* the Communists. A great victory for democracy, moderation and modernity. Bravo Indian voters!

  38. [Mr Turnbull said the $1.9 billion in projected savings over four years the government estimates from means testing the private health insurance rebate would amount to an insignificant proportion of commonwealth revenue.

    “It’s a tiny, tiny percentage of the federal government revenues,” he said. ]

    Yes ladies and gentleman, as of 17 May 2009, $1.9 billion can be classed as “tiny”. (or more acurately “tiny, tiny”).

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25495813-601,00.html

  40. I found this at AB’s site. It’s a great story.

    [Guatemala in uproar after lawyer predicts own murder

    Rodrigo Rosenberg, a middle-aged Guatemalan lawyer, has become an unlikely YouTube star in macabre circumstances. In a video recorded last Friday at the offices of a friend, he sits behind a desk and talks at the camera for 15 minutes.

    “If you are hearing this message,” Rosenberg begins, “unfortunately, it is because I have been murdered by the president’s private secretary, Gustavo Alejos, and his partner, Gregorio Valdez, with the approval of Álvaro Colom and Sandra de Colom {Guatemala’s president and first lady}.”

    Two days later, on Sunday, Rosenberg was shot while riding his bicycle in Guatemala City. He died on the street.]

    http://u.tv/News/Guatemala-in-uproar-after-lawyer-predicts-own-murder/96906d7e-4faa-45ee-83a0-f7ba5836e707

  41. 782,

    [
    For those who follow the footy, Geelong are at $2.3 to win the flag this early in the season. Maybe they could go through unbeaten? It’s a much closer competition in League.
    ]

    I went 8/0 this week. First time in my life for that 😀 ……. that having been said, I don’t look forward to picking the game between Geelong and St. Kilda when it happens this season, I reckon that each time are the only other ones who can put each other out. The team that wins that game will run the table …..

  42. Thus ensuring that the Repubs lose their only possible viable candidate for 2012. A very clever move. It’s also interesting as it shows that Huntsman knows Obama will not be beatable in 2912. Now the Repubs are left with the grisly choice of Huckabee, Palin or Romney, although others will probably emerge.

  46. [786 I had plenty of liquid assets this afternoon.

    None are left now tho.]

    But I reckon you will have felt stimulate for a while at least.

  49. Obama will not be beatable in 2912 because he will not be in Office because he will be dead and he will have had 2 terms.

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