Morgan: 60-40

The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan survey has Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 59-41 to 60-40. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 50 per cent, while the Coalition’s is down 1.5 per cent to 34 per cent. The balance is evenly distributed among the Greens, Family First and others.

Other news:

Antony Green tells you everything you need to know about all this double dissolution talk.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal contest to replace Brendan Nelson in Bradfield could develop into a contest between two big conservative guns: The Australian’s opinion page editor Tom Switzer, and John Howard’s legendary former chief-of-staff Arthur Sinodinos.

• The Federation Press will publish a self-explanatory volume entitled Australia: The State of Democracy, edited by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin of the Democratic Audit of Australia, on June 15.

Brian Costar of Swinburne University of Technology reviews the implications of the Victorian Ombudsman’s recent report into Brimbank City Council and the related internal matters of the Victorian ALP.

• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee has published the final report of its Inquiry Into Political Donations and Disclosure, which I won’t claim to have read at this stage.

• Two electoral events in Western Australian tomorrow: the daylight saving referendum, which you can discuss here, and the Fremantle by-election, which you can discuss and read about in very great detail here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

886 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 17 18
  1. Thinking of influential politicians of my lifetime in Australia, I am forced to conclude that all the Prime Ministers from Menzies onwards fill the bill. Most were in power so long that they were influential even if by default. The shorter term PMs such as Whitlam and Keating are included because one was Whitlam and the other was perhaps our most influential Treasurer since WW2. Others that fill the bill are B.Petersen, Dunstan and ……?

  2. The most influential Australian politicians since Menzies were Whitlam, Hawke, Keating and Howard. Obviously you could tweak that list a bit, but no way in the world could you include Fred Daly or Petro Georgiou.

  3. [Others that fill the bill are B.Petersen, Dunstan and โ€ฆโ€ฆ?]

    statewise
    N wran ,C court, R askin, R bolte, J kennett possibly R Carr

    [but no way in the world could you include Fred Daly ]

    You surprise me considering the impact he had on our voting system to name but one tangible

  4. J-D @ 847

    By the time the Whitlam Government came to power, Daly had so long been the ALP’s spokesman on electoral matters that it becomes difficult to disentangle personal influence and party policy.

    Apart from all of that, I don’t recall ever hearing the slightest whisper of impropriety about Daly’s personal or ministerial behaviour – not bad for someone who was in Parliament for 32 years, and a great contrast with many subsequent Ministers from both parties, to say nothing of the goats currently governing New South Wales, and Mr Bowe’s Treasurer in Western Australia. Our public life is the poorer for having fewer Fred Daly types these days.

  5. Daly wouldn’t make the top 100.
    He had a reputation (mainly self-promoted) as a wit, but if you’ve read his books there’s not much evidence for it.
    I recall he bragged that he kept personal files on Liberal members so he could attack them in Parliament.
    If you are looking for someone other than a PM who made a real contribution, try Moss Cass.

  6. [try Moss Cass.]

    Pray tell why would the good Dr would make your list

    re fred
    well you had to be there
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  7. [You surprise me considering the impact he had on our voting system to name but one tangible]

    Like J-D says, if Daly hadn’t introduced the legislation, some other Whitlam government B-lister would have done it instead. I don’t deny he was a delightful character, but they’re not the terms of reference here.

  8. Daly was shadow minister for Immigration prior to the 72 election but was removed for supporting some aspects of the White Australia policy. He became minister for Services and Property upon the election of the Whitlam Government.

  9. Winston @ 856

    Wit is very much a matter of personal taste, and I can’t claim to have read all of Daly’s books, but I did see him speaking on the stump during the 1974 election campaign, as well as in Parliament, and he was very quick with his responses – a far cry from modern politicians who won’t go out in public unless the people they will be seeing have been vetted by an advance party. Fred wouldn’t have had any trouble dealing with the silly old English pensioner in Tasmania who gave Mr Rudd the rounds of the kitchen for distracting his choir during a campaign event.

  10. Centre 807, that is very funny ๐Ÿ™‚ …… Port darn near gave it away though ๐Ÿ˜‰ … I was out walking the dogs and missed the end of that game so will be hanging out for the replay ๐Ÿ˜‰ …..

  11. [72 election but was removed for supporting some aspects of the White Australia policy.]

    link pls

    [I was.]
    brilliant orator eh
    then you must admit he straddled both sides (bowen anyone?) and certainly dwarfs todays bunch of wallflowers

    [He became minister for Services and Property upon the election of the Whitlam Government.]

    How long had he been in Parl?

  12. As Minister for Environment and Conservation Cass was responsible for establishing the environment as a national issue. He was also a major player in the anti-war movement and a man of great principle,

  13. [As Minister for Environment and Conservation Cass was responsible for establishing the environment as a national issue. He was also a major player in the anti-war movement and a man of great principle]

    environment as a national issue- ?

    How long had he been in parl?

  14. Geez, I go away for an evening and suddenly Fred Daly is on a list of most significant politicians?

    As the guy who wrote “The Politician Laughed” I guess he’d see the funny side of that.

  15. [By the time the Whitlam Government came to power, Daly had so long been the ALPโ€™s spokesman on electoral matters that it becomes difficult to disentangle personal influence and party policy.]

    As I have already pointed out, it ain’t so. He was shadow for Immigration in 69.

  16. From Daly’s wikipedia bio:
    [Daly spent the next 23 years as an opposition frontbencher ]

    Just imagine that length of time. And the current ALP talk about the 11-12 years they had in opposition, try doubling it. No wonder the Whitlam Govt ‘failed’ – too many men who’d waited too long.

  17. No, not really ….. they were riding a winning streak probably one week longer than they should have (given their form and place on the ladder atm). I reckon (for now, might change my mind before next weekend) that they will get up against my mob in Melbourne and start a new winning streak ;-). (Pav had 150 Super Coach points in a loss Friday night.)

    Can you tell I am a bit cynical? ๐Ÿ˜€

  18. Daly was also Leader of the House right through the period of the Whitlam Government, and therefore had quite a prominent parliamentary profile. And unlike almost all of his ministerial colleagues at the time – including most of the ones I suspect Mr Bowe might classify as A-listers – he didn’t really perpetrate any policy stuffups.

  19. [Daly was also Leader of the House right through the period of the Whitlam Government, and therefore had quite a prominent parliamentary profile. And unlike almost all of his ministerial colleagues at the time – including most of the ones I suspect Mr Bowe might classify as A-listers – he didnโ€™t really perpetrate any policy stuffups]
    Pedant
    forget scholar you go straight to emeritus
    ๐Ÿ™‚

  20. [but theyโ€™re not the terms of reference here.]

    I thought we were talking about best politician as opposed to best PM/leader

    there is a difference

  21. Winston @ 868 – The notion of having strictly defined shadow ministers is a relatively modern one. My recollection is that prior to the 1972 election the ALP had an “Opposition Executive” with certain individual policy specialisations. I share your recollection that Daly looked after Immigration at one point, but that doesn’t exclude his having a focus on electoral reform, on which he was seen as the leading ALP voice (after Gough, of course). Is your memory good enough to point to anyone else who was the designated ALP spokesperson on electoral matters pre-1972?

  22. Incidentally, in none of this have I been trying to argue that Daly was in any sense a major historical figure – he wasn’t. I have simply been responding to Mr Bowe’s request to be reminded of what Daly did in his time.

  23. [Is your memory good enough to point to anyone else who was the designated ALP spokesperson on electoral matters pre-1972?]

    Got me there.

  24. Too early to say, really but I think I would give the title to Howard. Here are his achievements:

    (1) through his megalomania and his winner takes all social conservativism, he has virtually eleminated the conservative side of politics as a serious force, probably for a decade to come.
    (2) he took us into two wars – consequences yet to be paid.
    (3) he ate up the boom years – consequences yet to be paid.
    (4) he normalized xenophobia
    (5) he ate up the boom years
    (6) he fostered an entitlements mentality that will be difficult to roll back.
    (7) most of all, he cost us a decade of do nothing on climate change.

  25. [through his megalomania and his winner takes all social conservativism, he has virtually eleminated the conservative side of politics as a serious force, probably for a decade to come.]

    Ahhh

    But try as he might, and god did he try, he couldny oust the wily P georgiou, yet he disposed of how many labor leaders?

  26. [Got me there.]

    still awaiting your link re @859 [72 election but was removed for supporting some aspects of the White Australia policy]

  27. I watched Eurovision for a laugh tonight and can take comfort that, however flawed, our voting system is not as bad as that one. The peception of voting blocs picking songs other than on merit isn’t jsut peception; it has been analysed quite a bit:
    http://www.liacs.nl/~tcocx/songfestival/indexenglish.html

    This made me think though, just how unrepresentative the international one-vote-per-nation type systems are, including the UN. Some like to think we “punch above our weight” in such fora. But is that what we should be aiming for? It would seem better if everyone punched proportional to their weight. Considering issues like the GFC and soon CC, the need for coordinated international action is rising, but our ability to deliver it is still low.

  28. Hmmm

    Socrates

    Let’s see, 20 million into 1.2 billion goes China has 60 times our voting power. Europe has roughly 30 times our voting power. Africa ditto. India also about 60 times over voting power.

    My guess is that the HowRudd Convergence has just about shredded our international cred on global warming…

    Why would people listen to an Aussie King Coal?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 17 18