EMRS: 43-36 to Labor in Tasmania

The latest quarterly EMRS survey of 1000 Tasmanian voters shows no radical change in state voting intention since February, with Labor’s lead after distribution of the undecided up a point to 43 per cent, the Liberals steady on 36 per cent and the Greens down two to 17 per cent. There are also breakdowns by electorate which you can see for yourself, but with samples ranging from 133 to 206 it wouldn’t do to take them too seriously. Slightly good news for the Liberals from the preferred leader ratings, which have David Bartlett down two to 39 per cent and Will Hodgman up two to 31 per cent. Newish Greens leader Nick McKim is up one to 13 per cent.

More from Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics and Kevin Bonham at the Tasmanian Times, who are puzzled by EMRS’s high undecided rates (24 per cent on this occasion).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

10 comments on “EMRS: 43-36 to Labor in Tasmania”

  1. intersting Labor seems to have improved their position in Braddon which really will be key to the election in my opinion. I doubt labor can keep that seat in Franklin.

    Im not sure how it would be picked in phone survey but a change in Braddon (where Labor really has been struggling) could be due to the government coming to the Aid of the King island abattoir. These people NEVER vote labor but one should never underestimate the power of parachialism/pork. King island is small enough that bugger all people would be surveyed im guessing. I Know stuff all about the methodology.

    If Labor gets those votes on King island it would be a coup!!!

  2. The sample was only 200 in Braddon, get rid of a quarter (24% undecided) for 150 and you end up with a completely worthless statistic.

  3. yea it does make it pretty pointless doesn’t it. But they are as reliable as the last ones (yes that does not say much) so if labor was behind and is now ahead in braddon i was just suggesting a possible reason, if it shows up in the poll or not.

    not defending EMRS in the slightest but could the Hare Clarke result in higher undecideds due to the possibility of a minority government if one votes for x as well as people voting mixed ballots?

  4. If they took one today after the announcement of the abolition of DEPHA, and the way it was done, I suspect the numbers would be very different. I’ll be amazed if Bartlett gets back in.

  5. Yeah this department thing is firing up. Should be McKim’s biggest asset if he can play it right. Save jobs + the environment.

  6. The change in Braddon from Libs 3 points ahead to Labor 1 point ahead between Feb and May isn’t anywhere near statistically significant. The sample sizes are only 200 (33 undecided) and 188 (29 undecided) respectively; the margin of error is massive. I think the one showing the Libs ahead was a bit dubious given that Labor beat them by 13.5 points in that electorate last time – even taking into account that EMRS’ treatment of undecideds underestimates the Labor vote and that two of the three Labor members for Braddon have been affected by scandals. Then again Braddon can be a very conservative electorate so it will probably swing back to the Liberals much more readily than the others.

    I’m certain that it is EMRS’ methods rather than Hare-Clarke that is causing the bulk of the undecided response. Morgan used to poll Tassie but haven’t done so since the last state election. Morgan never got anything like that level of “undecided”.

    As for the DEPHA changes I’m not sure how much those really will hurt Labor. The department’s being abolished but nearly all the jobs are being relocated. A lot of the “boo hoo, no one will manage our national parks” stuff will turn out to be nonsense and it should be easy to overshadow the issue by pointing out that you can’t make a billion-dollar GST black-hole-fixing omelette without breaking eggs. Bartlett has been fighting with the public sector unions almost since he took over the job and it hasn’t hurt him much yet (indeed he’s doing quite a clever job of making them look out of touch) ; given how many affected public sector employees would be either locked-on Labor or already voting Green he might well gain as many admirers as he loses if he markets this one right, whatever the unions say otherwise. That said, the manner of announcement/leaking was indeed not the ideal start.

    It did amuse me that our Premier went and did something so drastic the day after I issued a fairly positive assessment of how his government was travelling electorally.

  7. I really don’t think people are going to sympathise with a Premier using forced redundancies and the abolishment of department to hold the public sector union hostage.

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