Morgan: 61-39

The latest weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 61-39, although its primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 51.5 per cent while the Coalition is unchanged on 33.5 per cent. The slack has been taken up by Family First and independent/others.

Elsewhere:

• The Central Midlands & Coastal Advocate reports that Liberal Kalgoorlie MP Barry Haase has been making himself known in the areas of O’Connor which will be in the new seat of Durack under the radically redrawn boundaries. Despite being 75 years old, Wilson Tuckey has reportedly been taking an interest in the city of Kalgoorlie, which along with the southern coast from Albany to Esperance and areas of the South West will constitute the redrawn O’Connor.

• Liberal National Party candidate Andrea Caltabiano is launching a challenge against her 74-vote defeat by Labor’s Steve Kilburn in Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. Claimed irregularities include double voting, particularly by candidates who lodged absent votes, and voters being wrongly removed from the roll.

• The Australasian Study of Parliament Group Queensland Chapter is holding a “behind the scenes review of the Queensland 2009 State Election” at the George Street parliamentary annexe from 6pm on Monday, Apirl 27. Star attractions are Antony Green, Treasurer Andrew Fraser, Keating government Attorney-General Michael Lavarch and Lawrence Springborg’s former chief-of-staff Paul Turner. RSVP by Monday to Erin Pasley, who can be reached at Erin-DOT-Paisley-AT-parliament-DOT-qld-DOT-gov-DOT-AU or on 3406 7931.

• No, I haven’t forgotten the May 2 Tasmanian Legislative Council elections – I will have a post up when I get time. In the meantime, Antony Green outlines the candidates.

NOTE: I am leaving open the previous thread for those who wish to continue the discussion, if that’s the right word, about asylum seekers, indigenous affairs, racism and the rest. This thread is for pretty much anything else.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,291 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  4. [how do we get him into Federal politics when he hates the LNP?]

    Don’t you guys have any non-politicians to try and get in parliament?

    What about the AMA prez (forget her name, and can’t be bothered googling)?

    Any business people? ACCI types? AIG?

  6. Yes, as William was alluding the other night, there is nothing wrong with the leadership of:

    Peter Hostello and Greg Cant – A dream and wet team indeed.

  7. No 204

    Rosanna Capolingua would be a fantastic candidate.

    Also, Brough was an excellent politician and excellent Minister.

  9. GP 203
    A potential Howard Seat has already been earmarked for Manus Island. Is this possible outside Mainland Australia? Isn’t that outisde our migration zone?

  10. No 202

    He could be parachuted into the NSW or Victorian Branches. Actually, he would be pretty good for Lowe or Bennelong.

  16. [You wish.]

    No – just pointing out that I doubt they’ll be a seat named after him while he is alive – though not sure that is a policy

  17. [Also, Brough was an excellent politician and excellent Minister.]
    Evidenced by his failure to hold his own seat. Dream on.

  19. [I await with glee for the seat of Howard to be created.]

    I don’t think JH would be too pleased at that thought.

    Electorates are only named after “the dearly departed” Ex PMs.

  20. [Electorates are only named after “the dearly departed” Ex PMs.]

    I’m sure Janette can cook something up to hasten the progress 🙂

  22. How was he an “excellent Minister”?

    No one can name a single thing he did as Minister for Employment or Assistant Treasurer.

    The only thing anyone can think of is the back of the envelope intervention – after which he lost his seat.

  23. NEWSFLASH: Earthquake Hits Shepparton: Rudd To Blame
    News is just coming in of an earthquake that has hit Shepparton. Fortunately, there are no fatalities, but a number of cow-sheds have been severely damaged. Apparently, the earthquake (747 on the righter scale) occurred just as Kevin Rudd’s RAAF plane was refuelling on the tarmac. According to the local member, Dr Sharman Stone, the PM hadn’t taken time to eat for two days and, having ordered a salad sandwich from the stewardess, was informed that only local Shepparton-produced meat pies were available. Subsequently, according to Dr Stone, the earthquake was triggered by the fierce rumblings of the PM’s famished innards. And from the latest update from Dr Stone, she has demanded that “the PM should resign immediately, as he obviously hasn’t got the stomach for the job”. END OF NEWSFLASH.

  26. [Actually, he would be pretty good for Lowe or Bennelong.]

    Bennelong wont be very good. I’m looking forward to a nice little pick-up on Maxine again next election and I don’t think her odds will be very long if Brough is running against her.

  29. [Lost it as part of the anti-government tide.]

    Mal Brough in Longman was attacked with baseball bats. A double digit two-party swing of 10.32 percent.

    The national swing was only 5.44 percent.

  34. GP, politics 101: Please outline the 2PP swing in the election. Please outline the swing in Brough’s seat. Discuss.

  36. [GP, politics 101: Please outline the 2PP swing in the election. Please outline the swing in Brough’s seat. Discuss.]

    Considering the first and second have been given, I doubt GP will be doing the third 🙂

  42. OT – One good reason to NOT live in the US, particularly Palin’s state of Alaska …. found this tonight buried in an article about scariest drives in the USA. And I thought the Nullarbor was bad ….. (400 miles is 640ks)

    [
    Fear also factors into several Alaska drives. The state’s Dalton Highway (State Route 11) is the only one in the U.S. that crosses the Arctic Circle and the longest stretch of road in America with no services. Built in the early 1970s as a support road for the Alaska Pipeline, the highway runs just over 400 miles between Livengood (near Fairbanks) and Prudhoe Bay. All there is out there (beside the giant pipe) is frozen tundra and wild animals, including a few species that will gladly kill and eat you.

    The Dalton is open throughout the year, including the depths of winter, which means that snow and ice can throw up a challenge. But even in the best of weather, the gravel roadbed can be tricky to drive; fishtailing is not uncommon. And there are also steep grades that approach 12 percent. But the biggest danger is breakdown. You know what happened to the guy in Into the Wild—think in similar terms if you should happen to break down along the Dalton.

    The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) recommends that anyone driving the route thoroughly inspect their tires and fluid levels before setting out; pack at least two spare tires, extra gasoline and motor oil, emergency flares and a CB radio; and bring along warm clothes, first-aid kit, and enough ready-to-eat food for several days.
    ]

  44. [Lost it as part of the anti-government tide.]
    National swing against Liberals in 1997 – 4.2%
    Qld swing against Liberals in 1997 – 7.53%
    Swing against Brough – 10.3%

    Don’t let the facts get in the way of your assertions.

  45. Glen – I take it you’re booing at the decision and not me?

    As if it’s going to stop anything. Check out the Wolverine leak. ONe copy gets leaked. The studio is onto it straight away, threatens FBI etc … a million + downloads later….

    (that sad I might be about the only person on the interwebs never to have used Pirate Bay)

  46. No 233

    I don’t see the point in the verdict. The Pirate Bay is still active, copyright is still being wantonly thwarted, and the awarded damages are nowhere near what the industry claims has been lost thanks to piracy.

    Futile blather is all that could be said for that judgment.

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