Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA

Today’s West Australian brings a Westpoll survey of 400 voters showing federal Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 52-48. This points to a swing of over 5 per cent compared with the 46.7-53.3 result at the 2007 election, which if uniform would net Labor Swan (which the Liberals won by 0.1 per cent at the election, but it now has a 0.6 per cent Labor margin after the redistribution), Stirling (1.2 per cent), Cowan (1.2 per cent) and Canning (4.3 per cent), which rumour has it will be contested for Labor by senior Gallop-Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan. The poll also shows 52 per cent of respondents rate Kevin Rudd best to handle the economy against 29 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 44 per cent and 40 per cent in the October survey. However, Rudd’s 61-25 lead as preferred prime minister is slightly lower than in the February survey, when it was 63-22.

On Saturday, The West reported that this same survey showed 51 per cent planning to vote against daylight saving at the May 16 referendum against 47 per cent in favour. Yesterday it was reported that 60 per cent were in favour of allowing shops to open until 9pm on weeknights and all day on Sundays, which got the thumbs down at a referendum held in conjunction with the 2005 state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

61 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA”

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  1. Antony Green, you have nailed all the stats, for which I am duly grateful. As an early-rising beach-going swimmer and jogger and habitual afternoon-shopper and dinner-cook, DST is a complete disaster. I deplore it in every aspect and devoutly hope it fails. It contributes nothing but heat and longer working hours to the afternoon and utterly mucks up our morning routine. It is daylight robbery.

  2. And as for longer shopping hours, I have to say I am basically indifferent from a personal point of view. I am a small-time, low-voltage shopper with a deep aversion to shopping centres and the general spending experience. I feel for the shop-workers – long hours, tedious work, unsociable weekend shifts – and wouldn’t mind of shopping hours were shortened.

  3. 52:

    Maybe you lot over east like this “rationality” rubbish, but we like shootin’ from the hip. Rationality makes the days hotter and gives us longer hours in the afternoon. Anyway everybody over east hates us. We’re closer to the moon than we are to Sydney.

  4. [ We’re closer to the moon than we are to Sydney. ]

    And we’re literally closer (by km and time difference) to Indonesia than the eastern states. It’s cheaper to get there, too.

    [ I feel for the shop-workers – long hours, tedious work, unsociable weekend shifts – and wouldn’t mind of shopping hours were shortened. ]

    I do that kind of work, for a few months until I find something better (ie: related to my recently finished degree). It’s rough work but bearable enough, and it pays better than the dole. Even shifts are OK – just change your social life to suit. That’s why the “I want sunlight after work!” argument doesn’t fly with me… I knock off at midnight, which no sane amount of DLS could make sunny. I still find ways to enjoy myself after work, same as anyone else can if they try. The bonus of course, my afternoons are my own. 🙂

  5. Antony, another reason why the Yes vote isn’t as strong in central Perth compared to the northern and southern suburbs, is the age factor. For instance, the seats of Cottesloe, Mt Lawley and Belmont the average age would no doubt be higher than in the suburbs away from the CBD, who are likely to be more against Daylight Saving than for it.

    So what is everyone’s tips for the referendum. Will the no vote win by 60%, will the no vote win by similar margins as in the past? or will the yes vote just get over the line?

  6. I’ll tip a ‘yes’ vote in the mid to high 40’s, again, and yet another ‘trial’ in about a decade as punishment for not voting ‘yes’… again. The more things change, y’know…

  7. Antony Green @ 50

    I have a science background so whether it be nature or nurture, for better or for worse, I like to deal with facts. I do not deny, debunk or deride the statistics that you have supplied (if anything I think they help make my point). The numbers are what the numbers are. However you must take into consideration ALL the information.

    When Sydney gets more humid weather than Perth, I’m afraid that the 4 degs is significantly reduced – please refer to Apparent Temperatures information on the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) site. I do not ‘dismiss’ the 4 deg difference between mean Perth and Sydney temps – I said that they are very similar once – even more so once humidity is taken into consideration. As does the effect of an ocean breeze. The BOM state that;

    “It is midsummer in Perth in January, and days are generally sunny and either warm or hot. The low humidity that generally occurs on days of high temperature makes conditions more tolerable. Sea-breezes that blow across the coastal plain on most afternoons moderate the temperature. Hot spells, usually of two or three days’ duration, are commonly followed by cooler conditions for a similar period.”

    I’m sorry, Antony but simply restating the average maximum temps over and over again without taking into account humidity is pointless. As is the comment that “…4 degrees is the difference between Hobart and Sydney in January…”. Hobart’s max mean temp is less than Sydney and so a 4 deg difference, as a proportion is mathematically and appreciably larger than when comparing Perth to Sydney. And again that 4 deg “…is the difference between Sydney in mid-spring and Sydney in January…” Humidity is less in spring than summer.

    Then you intone that “the average maximum temperature is only one measure of temperature and takes no account of how long each day it is hot”. You’re absolutely correct – I never said or inferred otherwise… In fact it only aids my point that changing the time by one hour is not going to make much of an impact when the hot days are longer in Perth – it sure isn’t going to make them shorter by not having DLS. In fact having or not having DSL won’t change a whole heap of things – a point which I think you’ll agree. Consequently arguments based on them are just meaningless and silly – my very point in bringing up temperature in the first place!!

    I have challenged myself as to why I like DLS – trying to avoiding the parochial, silly arguments abo. For me it’s very simple. It comes down to what I do and don’t have control over; the time of work. When WA has no DLS, there is a 3 hour difference to the East Coast. When I arrive at work, I have until 2pm to conduct business conversation with them (leaving emails to be read the following day is often too slow). When they want to conduct a conference with Perth, it’s either too early or around our lunch time for us. When Perth wants to conduct a conference with the East Coast, it’s either too late or around their lunch time. Of course, lunch can be moved when it involves a very small group of people or is a short meeting. Typically this is often not the case and explaining to clients why multimillion deals should be postponed because I’m eating my tuna sandwich tends not to be received too well. Consequently I found myself getting up very early to get to work, thus limiting/eradicating the opportunity to do non-work activities prior. DLS helps to alleviate this by providing better ‘windows’ for meetings etc AND provides me with extra daylight at the end of the day. Of course this ‘bonus’ is not to be found the further north you go, so I can well understand why people in QLD and NT don’t want or need it – not to mention that their time differential with the main business centers of Melbourne and Sydney is less also.

    You state that there’s a lack of arguments “for or against daylight saving”. Interesting opinion but saying it doesn’t make it so. In the main I agree (hence me getting involved in this ‘debate’) and I note with some irony that it seems that it hasn’t stopped you trying to put forward plenty of arguments yourself .

    Finally, Fargo61 at # 41: As I suspect you well know, I was of course referring to the extra hour of sunlight after work rather than before work. So if you wish to continue with your “silly nonsense”, then bring it on son.


  8. Round and round in circles. Clearly people perceive a difference in Perth, otherwise they wouldn’t keep voting down Daylight Saving at referendums. The only time NSW voted on Daylight Saving, it got 75% support in Sydney. Three times its been voted on in Perth and barely got above 50%. Maybe it’s just because Perth people don’t like change, I don’t know. But Perth people say it is too hot and they don’t like, and who am I to disabuse them of that view.

    The one statistic I can’t find information on is the time of day of maximum temperature. All I could use was the 3pm statistics which suggest Perth stays hotter than Sydney later in the day. On average at 3pm Sydney is already several degress down from its daily maximum, while Perth is still lurking at maximum temperature. And of course under Daylight Saving, that 3pm temperature is at 4pm. That statistic backs the complaint Perth people make about it being too hot late in the afternoon with daylight saving. Perhaps they just don’t understand how much better off because there is low humidity, but they are certainly not going to do what Sydney people do and vote 75% in favour of Daylight Saving. Clearly there is something about Perth’s climate which means Perth people are not very keen on Daylight Saving.

    People either like or dislike daylight saving, almost always because something about it either fits or does not fit their lifestyle or work habits. Someone doing business with eastern states probably likes it, someone who likes an early morning swim probably isn’t so keen on it. Farmers always seem to hate it. Some parents hate it cos they can’t get kids to sleep with the sun up, some parents think its great cos their kids play outside. Different people will all have their own reasons, and that’s fair enough.

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