Morgan: 61-39

The latest weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 61-39, although its primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 51.5 per cent while the Coalition is unchanged on 33.5 per cent. The slack has been taken up by Family First and independent/others.


• The Central Midlands & Coastal Advocate reports that Liberal Kalgoorlie MP Barry Haase has been making himself known in the areas of O’Connor which will be in the new seat of Durack under the radically redrawn boundaries. Despite being 75 years old, Wilson Tuckey has reportedly been taking an interest in the city of Kalgoorlie, which along with the southern coast from Albany to Esperance and areas of the South West will constitute the redrawn O’Connor.

• Liberal National Party candidate Andrea Caltabiano is launching a challenge against her 74-vote defeat by Labor’s Steve Kilburn in Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. Claimed irregularities include double voting, particularly by candidates who lodged absent votes, and voters being wrongly removed from the roll.

• The Australasian Study of Parliament Group Queensland Chapter is holding a “behind the scenes review of the Queensland 2009 State Election” at the George Street parliamentary annexe from 6pm on Monday, Apirl 27. Star attractions are Antony Green, Treasurer Andrew Fraser, Keating government Attorney-General Michael Lavarch and Lawrence Springborg’s former chief-of-staff Paul Turner. RSVP by Monday to Erin Pasley, who can be reached at Erin-DOT-Paisley-AT-parliament-DOT-qld-DOT-gov-DOT-AU or on 3406 7931.

• No, I haven’t forgotten the May 2 Tasmanian Legislative Council elections – I will have a post up when I get time. In the meantime, Antony Green outlines the candidates.

NOTE: I am leaving open the previous thread for those who wish to continue the discussion, if that’s the right word, about asylum seekers, indigenous affairs, racism and the rest. This thread is for pretty much anything else.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,291 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. Glen, warnings from someone whose party Leader has a dissatisfaction rating greater than his satisfaction rating is hilarious. When is the lame duck leader due to be replaced?

  2. They won’t have any grounds for compensation if it turns out they set fire to the boat themselves. (Not that I’m prejudging that!). They might have grounds for being charged with murder instead.

  3. [A human rights lawyer says the Federal Government could be liable to pay compensation to the families of those killed and injured after the Ashmore Reef asylum boat explosion.]

    Oh ffs.

    What tosh. Still it’ll fuel the shock jocks and shock bloggers for another day. Sigh.

  4. Adam @ 1226
    [what we really need is some sign of progress on Israel-Palestine. Although Obama has a very good team on the job in Clinton, Mitchell and Blair, it’s unfortunate that Netanyahu has returned to power at just this otherwise propitious moment.]

    Indeed not a timely event, although a major part of the new peace brokering landscape for the US (with others) will be working with the Palestinians more than has been done previously. There was an interesting article by Walter Mead in the recent edition of the influential ‘Foreign Affairs’ quarterly on the approach that might be taken by Obama’s team:

    [“When he reiterates the United States’ support for an independent, viable Palestinian state with borders based on the Green Line, that is, the pre-1967 borders (with minor and mutually-agreed-on modifications) Obama must go further than his predecessors. He must overcome the skepticism created by the Bush administration’s empty rhetorical support for a Palestinian state. He must declare that the United States is committed not only to an independent Palestine but also to acknowledging the wrongs the Palestinians have sufferered, compensating them for those, and otherwise ensuring a dignified future for every Palestinian family.”]

    It seems to me an excellent approach, which does not mean favouring the Palestinians over the Israelis – another point the article makes.

  5. [Rudd has only won the argument about broadband because Turnbull hasnt got an alternative policy!]
    That’s like saying Richmond are only losing because they haven’t got a midfield.

  6. [They might have grounds for being charged with murder instead.]

    Yep – or at very least manslaughter.

    I would say the Navy would have been taking their usual standard of care.

  7. [Should Susan Boyle get makeover, pose for $1million to lose virginity? – The shy singer has also been offered $1million from an adult entertainment company to lose her virginity on camera. The company has already set up a website,, where fans can vote for various possible movie titles. If Boyle were to accept the offer, the firm would fly her out to Los Angeles on — natch — Virgin Airlines. ],22049,25358237-5001026,00.html

    I am sure the Chaser Boys would volunteer.

  8. I can guess that Turnbull just lost a very large number of Chinese speaking/reading voters because of their approach over the China, Fitzgibbons etc attack.

    Some in The Age and other parts of media may have thought they could hurt Fitzgibbons and or Rudd over ‘China’ scaring but the opposite may now be true.

    My friend tells me that HK Chinese TVB news had an item running about 10-15 minutes going over the whole issue and clearly related it to cheap political games being played by the Opposition and media, appealing to latent racism or fears less aware people might have of China. They also talked about how Rudd knew that China was very important and they went over the Fitzgibbons and his friend thing putting it in its correct context.

    Net result The Age and Aussie media generally – kick up the bum
    The Opposition big kick up the bum.
    Rudd – big tick.

    Goodbye Bennelong and others maybe. Too bad Rupes, you don’t own TVB.

  9. I remember because Nelson had improved our primary vote so we had to let him go.

    What fools we were.

    I doubt Nelson would have bungled it up any worse than Turnbull.

    We probably inhindsight were a bit too quick to push Brendan he wasnt doing such a bad job.

  10. [When he reiterates the United States’ support for an independent, viable Palestinian state with borders based on the Green Line, that is, the pre-1967 borders (with minor and mutually-agreed-on modifications)]

    Has Obama said this? About the Green Line, I mean? He’ll have a job signing any Israeli PM to that, let alone Netanyahu. Most Israelis now think of the security fence as their de facto border. Their view is that when Arafat rejected the 2000 Camp David deal and launched the suicide bomber offensive, the Green Line option disappeared for good.

  11. It’s been like one of those Hits and Memories radio stations tonight.

    All we need is the gentle burble of “Malcolm’s Theme” (more commonly known as “I’m Forever Blowing Bubbles”) as he slides deeper in to the shite.

  12. Glen, youre missing the point, Nelson WAS doing a BAD JOB, as Turnbull is, as will any alternative that does nothing but oppose and carp and play cheap political games. Bring on the next leader- Hockey, perhaps??

  13. Andrew nothing has changed. We’re still 58-42 behind and we were probably closer to the ALP than we are now under Turnbull…

    We probably should have stayed with Nelson.

  14. [Don’t hate the rich, be one of them – By Li Hongmei People’s Daily Online

    Despite the turmoil in financial markets and global economic downtrend, the Chinese rich will go on accumulating wealth faster than ever anticipated. According to the private wealth report released some time ago that the number of China’s high net worth individuals is growing by leaps and bounds on a year-on-year basis. The concept of so-called high net worth individuals refers to those with net assets of at least US$1m excluding their main home…….

    A society without producing wealthy people is never progressing on the healthy track. Indeed, even the Bible says ‘money is the root of all evils.’ In this light, a highly commercialized society is not a noble one, either. But it is noteworthy that wealth in itself has nothing to do with guilt or innocence, and what matters most is how to manage it. Nevertheless, it will be beneficial to the general good of a society that, instead of bitterly envying the rich, more people are learning to become one of them. ]

    Dont laugh this is serious. It is from the People’s Daily, directly controlled by the powerful party Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCCCP).

    Like I said many times over, the Chinese were the original running dog capitalist. The West was imitating the running dog. It was just that the running dog was not running very fast in the last century but it is in full gallop now.

  15. Well this has to be the most boring Newspoll yet. The one week where the LNP might have had an outside chance of gaining and there’s nothing to show for all the rage. I think Mumble has a good take on these matters today.
    “Asylum seekers: fruits of incumbency”

  16. Vera, Malco must have picked up a few extra votes from Hanson and her mates.

    Rudd honeymoon is definitely over for his Hyde HostieGate persona but continues unabated for his Dr Jekyll impersonation.

  17. China – failed
    Yellow peril – failed
    Air Hostie – failed
    Qjumpers – failed

    ah, yes, there is always the recession

  18. Can we now have some decency in our political debate now Malcolm based around the merits of policy and alternative policy?

    Turnbull has only himself to blame. He is a bad leader and lacks personal integrity. He has shown now that he is willing to sacrifice anything including integrity and decency in order to stay leader, rather than be his own man. Just who is his own man we now have to ask.

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