Morgan: 61-39

The latest weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 61-39, although its primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 51.5 per cent while the Coalition is unchanged on 33.5 per cent. The slack has been taken up by Family First and independent/others.

Elsewhere:

• The Central Midlands & Coastal Advocate reports that Liberal Kalgoorlie MP Barry Haase has been making himself known in the areas of O’Connor which will be in the new seat of Durack under the radically redrawn boundaries. Despite being 75 years old, Wilson Tuckey has reportedly been taking an interest in the city of Kalgoorlie, which along with the southern coast from Albany to Esperance and areas of the South West will constitute the redrawn O’Connor.

• Liberal National Party candidate Andrea Caltabiano is launching a challenge against her 74-vote defeat by Labor’s Steve Kilburn in Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. Claimed irregularities include double voting, particularly by candidates who lodged absent votes, and voters being wrongly removed from the roll.

• The Australasian Study of Parliament Group Queensland Chapter is holding a “behind the scenes review of the Queensland 2009 State Election” at the George Street parliamentary annexe from 6pm on Monday, Apirl 27. Star attractions are Antony Green, Treasurer Andrew Fraser, Keating government Attorney-General Michael Lavarch and Lawrence Springborg’s former chief-of-staff Paul Turner. RSVP by Monday to Erin Pasley, who can be reached at Erin-DOT-Paisley-AT-parliament-DOT-qld-DOT-gov-DOT-AU or on 3406 7931.

• No, I haven’t forgotten the May 2 Tasmanian Legislative Council elections – I will have a post up when I get time. In the meantime, Antony Green outlines the candidates.

NOTE: I am leaving open the previous thread for those who wish to continue the discussion, if that’s the right word, about asylum seekers, indigenous affairs, racism and the rest. This thread is for pretty much anything else.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,291 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  3. I can’t believe even the WA Libs would endorse Tuckey for another term. He’ll be 75 next July, and he’ll rack up 30 years as an MP next October. His contributions in the House are, to put it charitably, erratic.

  5. No 3

    My favourite contribution was when he told Gillard to give the Workchoices mousepads away with her free computers. Gold. 🙂

    On a serious note, it’s probably time he retired and allowed new blood into the parliament. Same goes for Ruddock and a few others.

  8. Glen,

    If it makes your day or not to know Melbourne have a tip, I’ve tipped them this week. I reckon that if they can’t get over the hump against Richmond, …….

  9. Good point, Adam. I have changed “will remain” to “hopes to remain”. I would also note that the Libs need to be mindful of the newly resurgent Nationals in both of these seats.

  10. Just watched last night’s QandA. Loved Bowen’s response when Elliott said, ” I agree with Chris.”
    Bowen said, “I must be wrong then.”

  12. Ah juliem the poor old Dees. Yes i would ROTFL if we beat Richmond, but who else do we have a chance to knock off but Richmond. So if we are to beat anybody it will be the Tigers or the Dockers (so long as it is at the G and even then im not 100% certain of victory).

    If we get smashed in 2010 then 2013 would be out of the equation. So it all rests on us doing no worse than 2007.

    Tuckey should be dumped.
    Hasse is too old and his seat is a safe Tory seat so that’s at least 2 new young Liberal MPs we can bring into Parliament.

    But most likely those 2 old farts will get pre-selected again *shakes head*

  13. [Tuckey should be dumped.
    Hasse is too old and his seat is a safe Tory seat so that’s at least 2 new young Liberal MPs we can bring into Parliament.]

    Well put your money where your mouth is and move to the electoratde and seek endorsement then 🙂

  17. Speaking of Twitter…I have learned from it that Ozzy Osbourne is written ????????? and that he continues to have fans in Japan. Conversations via Google translate.

    Will be interesting to watch the Liberals primary vote over the next few months to see if their latest tactics are having any positive effect. I think Possums analysis highlights the need for the Lib’s to get real about being a mature responsible party that takes issues on their merit and not as opportunity to play cheap politics.

    But what are their chances of developing an agreed upon platform and set of policies that actually relate to Australians rather than pure ideology?

    Meanwhile…back to work.

  20. I’m sure we’d get along just fine as we both like a good rant now and again.

    I do enjoy listening to him oh and Hunch i mean Hinch but im assuming you already knew that 😉

  22. While you’re getting nit-picked, William, is Barry Haase’s name missing there? 😉

    As I said in the other thread, this sort of thing irritates the 20% of country folk who vote Labor, but if they run somebody like that UWA guild president again the Nationals will probably win, unless they’ve lost a lot of popularity in the bush in the couple of years between last September and next year. It could cause problems between the Libs and Nats over east if Grylls and co give it a good shake, too. If Tuckey runs down south and Haase up north, I’d pick the Nats in O’Connor – I’m guessing that seat covers Wagin (bulletproof National) and Blackwood-Stirling (once was Paul Omodei, but Nats won in 2008).

    In Durack, Labor do OK in state seats (well, they win them), and the Nats came second in Pilbara in 2008. (Also, the Greens did quite well in Kimberley.) Plenty of mining towns up there which will get belted by the boom ending, so there’ll be angry voters – who they’ll end up angry at, I dunno. Might be a bad thing for the Libs (particularly if dead Workchoices is still an issue in 2010). I’ll put down Durack as a roughie for Labor… if they really demolish the Libs in 2010, that’ll be the seat they pick up.

  23. Glen, I’d love it too if Labor had it’s own talkback radio station. I’d imagine though you haven’t exactly been having a great time the last couple of years what with your sport and politics buggered up.

  24. The Liberals are in a deathly bind. On the one hand the party lives for the prospect of returning to power to resume its WorkChoices crusade against fairness in the workplace. On the other hand, they know WorkChoices is electoral poison, so they dare not openly reveal their agenda.

    Consequently they appear to have no substantive policy. And they will never be competitive unless they do have substantive policy (policy apart from SerfChoices, that is).

  25. If the Nats couldn’t pick up the old O’Connor (which pretty much ran through the Nat party heartland in WA) in 2007 against Tuckey, I don’t really see how they’re going to be able to do it either O’Connor or Durack, where their base is split between the 2 seats.

    Of course, if Tuckey is disendorsed, it may give the Nats a better shot – particularly if some of his personal vote swings to the Nats rather than Labor.

  26. I think this post on the previous thread is relevant to comments here also.

    [If the Libs are hoping to rattle Rudd it’s going to be one more failure in an ever increasing list.]

    Vera, they sat around for twelve months watching Rudd reduce Howard to a trembling wreck of a man and in the process, destroying him and his “legacy” at the November, 2007 election.

    They have sat around and watched as he records poll after poll at stratospheric levels, all the while throwing everything including the kitchen sink at him and nothing has worked.

    I can’t see anything changing in this respect as it is becoming clearer that the Libs enjoy failure and irrelevance. If that summation is incorrect, then they better hurry up and develop a strategy that actually works for them and not to enhance the standing of the Rudd Government.

  27. Actually im quite used to Melbourne not performing.

    Politics well you need to enjoy the good times becuase they often dont last and in politics that is very true.

    The one thing i will give the Demons over the Liberals is that they do try, atm the Libs arent trying to come up with policy and it shts me quite a bit.

    Not to mention my dislike of Ted Ballieu who will lose in 2010 meaning the ALP will have been in power from 1999 to 2014+ which is a disgrace!

    GB luckily sport and politics arent the only things in life to enjoy if they were id be shattered lol!

  30. [Gary,

    If Glen’s love life is no good either, we’ll have to nickname him “Lucky”.]

    Channel 9 should start a new reality show called “The Liberal wants A wife” and intertwine it with Aussie Ladette to Ladies 🙂

  31. [Onya Judi Moylan

    “Liberal MP backs Rudd on asylum policy”]

    She is mine and Juliem’s local Federal Member and this is the only good thing about her 🙂

  37. [I wouldn’t mind betting this will be Moylan’s last term, too. She’ll be 66 next year and with comments like the above the dogs will be after her.]

    But who will they pre-selct ? It’s either Charlie Zannino, Mayor of the City of Swan, or failed candidate for West Swan Rod Henderson – who has been running a fear campaign against the building of a Mosque in Caversham.

  41. Bit hard for a party to get “new blood” when its primary support base is pensioners and rednecks, I would have thought.

  42. I dont care what faction they are from, id prefer it if they didnt even have an expressed faction.

    A mixture would do nicely.

  44. [Australian union membership posted its first increase in three years in 2008.

    Total union membership rose to 1.8 million workers last year, up 3% from the 1.7 million in 2007, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.]

    http://business.smh.com.au/business/union-membership-on-the-rise-20090417-a9ks.html

    I’m surprised there hasn’t been more discussion of this. With the combination of new workplace laws and the economic crisis I predicted union membership to rise, and I thought it would be an interesting point given it’s marked decline in recent years.

    Possum, if you’re out here somewhere, I think an interesting post could be one about union membership over the decades and then we could all have fun correlating it with economic circumstances and changes in legislation.

  45. No 44

    1.8 million is still less than 10% of the entire Australian population – so please tell me why unions should have overarching influence in workplaces?

  47. I don’t know about their influence in workplace relations, but I do know that during the Howard government business groups (who represent even less people) had a lot of influence.

    Allegedly, Rudd and Gillard engaged with both business and unions.

    Glen, they have “their own political party” because they went out created it. And the Australian people voted it in. I think you should remember that.

    Australians are not scared of unions. The Libs ran the biggest union scare campaign in the history of the country in 2007 and Australia said “We want Labor to be in government”.

  49. [The Federal Government will investigate the idea of making company directors personally responsible for corporate failures in some circumstances.

    The Government will audit state, territory and the Commonwealth legislation with the aim of developing nationally consistent laws.

    Possible changes could make company directors criminally liable if they have encouraged or assisted misconduct.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/17/2545906.htm?section=justin

    Good idea!

  50. No 47

    Regardless, why should unions have the right to enter private premises and inspect records of non-union employees. Why should unions even have right of entry, except for the purposes of conducting negotiations?

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