Morgan: 61-39

The latest weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 61-39, although its primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 51.5 per cent while the Coalition is unchanged on 33.5 per cent. The slack has been taken up by Family First and independent/others.

Elsewhere:

• The Central Midlands & Coastal Advocate reports that Liberal Kalgoorlie MP Barry Haase has been making himself known in the areas of O’Connor which will be in the new seat of Durack under the radically redrawn boundaries. Despite being 75 years old, Wilson Tuckey has reportedly been taking an interest in the city of Kalgoorlie, which along with the southern coast from Albany to Esperance and areas of the South West will constitute the redrawn O’Connor.

• Liberal National Party candidate Andrea Caltabiano is launching a challenge against her 74-vote defeat by Labor’s Steve Kilburn in Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. Claimed irregularities include double voting, particularly by candidates who lodged absent votes, and voters being wrongly removed from the roll.

• The Australasian Study of Parliament Group Queensland Chapter is holding a “behind the scenes review of the Queensland 2009 State Election” at the George Street parliamentary annexe from 6pm on Monday, Apirl 27. Star attractions are Antony Green, Treasurer Andrew Fraser, Keating government Attorney-General Michael Lavarch and Lawrence Springborg’s former chief-of-staff Paul Turner. RSVP by Monday to Erin Pasley, who can be reached at Erin-DOT-Paisley-AT-parliament-DOT-qld-DOT-gov-DOT-AU or on 3406 7931.

• No, I haven’t forgotten the May 2 Tasmanian Legislative Council elections – I will have a post up when I get time. In the meantime, Antony Green outlines the candidates.

NOTE: I am leaving open the previous thread for those who wish to continue the discussion, if that’s the right word, about asylum seekers, indigenous affairs, racism and the rest. This thread is for pretty much anything else.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,291 thoughts on “Morgan: 61-39”

Comments Page 2 of 26
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  1. Oz

    I can vaguely remember a committee suggesting to Costello that he do a similar thing. He said he would – but never did. Hammock bound I suppose.

  3. Glen @ 12,

    Tuckey is like the Dockers, don’t pick him for anything to save yourself, he can’t take a trick at all and neither can they ….. my dilemma will be who to pick when Richmond play Freo and will probably chose the Tigers. Out here in Perth, I’m making myself an honorary Dockers fan in case the locals ask but privately, I won’t tip them period end of sentence.

    Isn’t footy a wonderful leveller across all other political barriers? 😀

  4. 15,

    The right wingnuts (illiberals) want to push him out.

    Let the religious nutcakes have him (Ruddock) and get whom they want for preselection. Makes it easier for us in the Labor party in the final analysis 😉

  6. Glen
    Posted Friday, April 17, 2009 at 4:16 pm | Permalink
    No im not moving back to Perth as much as i like it Melbourne is my home.

    AH HAH ……… now the roots of the conservatism Glen 😀 ……. what part of WA/Perth, mate? And for how long prior to VIC?

  7. William, what evidence makes it evident?

    There was a report to this effect in the Kalgoorlie Miner a few months back. I’ve done some rewording …

    While you’re getting nit-picked, William, is Barry Haase’s name missing there?

    … which included correcting this.

  9. Isn’t footy a wonderful leveller across all other political barriers? 😀

    It’s also a good indicator sometimes. I vote for the Democrats (well, used to at least), and I barrack for the mighty Fremantle Dockers, who once led Melbourne by 50 points at half time and still managed to lose. I sense a pattern there…

  10. He is a member of Amnesty International.

    Just think how bad Detention would have got had Tony Abbott been Immigration minister??

  12. Frank @ 31,

    Yes, anyone who speaks out in defiance of the Coalition leadership gets a small tick in my book. But still won’t vote for her 😉 ….

  13. Juliem I’ve spent most of my life in Melbourne.

    I did spend 5 years in Perth, well Cottesloe and then Bicton.
    I have half my family over there so it is nice to go back and see them, i really did enjoy my time in WA.

    But Melbourne is and forever shall be my home 🙂

  15. Regardless, why should unions have the right to enter private premises and inspect records of non-union employees. Why should unions even have right of entry, except for the purposes of conducting negotiations?

    Er because legislation passed by the Parliament says they can? 😉

  18. BOP @ 59,

    Taking that arguement one step further (to see if I am in line), if any other PB’rs out there would care to identify as North Melbourne supporters, where do you also self identify yourself on the political spectrum? I’m way out on the left of Labor and after previous comments on the other older thread, would identify myself closely with Tim Costello’s view points on many things (although he hasn’t to my knowledge publically flagged his party affiliation at any point).

  20. 60,

    GLEN!

    Just think how bad Detention would have got had Tony Abbott been Immigration minister??

    wash your mouth out with soap, mate 😀

  22. Glen,

    But Melbourne is and forever shall be my home

    That goes many miles in my book towards redemption for all of the Liberal pitfalls 🙂
    I’m a VIC through and through also so when our moving around days are behind us, will have a permanent address somewhere in metropolitan Melbourne.

  23. 67,

    Steve K
    Posted Friday, April 17, 2009 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
    I live in the seat of Lowe, which is held by Labor.

    I’m in Melbourne Ports.

    I’m so pleased for you both.

    As am I, they are not contributing to the increase of Libs in the House 😀 ……

  24. Just think how bad Detention would have got had Tony Abbott been Immigration minister??

    The Spanish Inquisition all over again.

  27. I’ve never heard of John Murphy lol shows what a go getter he is LOL!

    Juliem it is nice to know that even while we may be on different sides of politics we can at least appreciate the place where we want to live.

    Danby is dead wood, he’s asks the occasional question and is best known for being the only Australian MP of the jewish faith. Other than that i cant see him making my life any better.

  28. Isn’t there a bludger who lives in Indi?

    Not sure but there is a bludger who lives in Higgins – spends his days in a hammock apparently.

  31. I’ve never heard of John Murphy lol shows what a go getter he is LOL!

    Where were you during stroganoff-gate? Under a rock?

  32. Danby is dead wood, he’s asks the occasional question and is best known for being the only Australian MP of the jewish faith. Other than that i cant see him making my life any better.

    You’re just saying that because Adam Carr is one of his staffers 😛

  35. Danby is dead wood, he’s asks the occasional question

    Actually he’s a very hard-working MP and respected in Canberra. He has two good committee chairs (Immigration and Foreign Affairs).

    the only Australian MP of the jewish faith

    Mark Dreyfus is also Jewish.

    Adam Carr is one of his staffers

    I haven’t worked for Michael since the elections.

  37. GP, doesn’t matter at all what it used to be, what is it now 😀 ….. I won’t be working for my members re-election next year and neither will Frank. I suspect you won’t be handing out HTV for your member either 😉

  39. Billy McMahon would be sad to see what has happened in Lowe.

    Apart from Lowe and Bennelong are there other seats formerly held by a PM in the hands of another party?

  40. 78,

    Steve K
    Posted Friday, April 17, 2009 at 5:43 pm | Permalink
    Isn’t there a bludger who lives in Indi?

    Not sure but there is a bludger who lives in Higgins – spends his days in a hammock apparently.

    But he is a Republican so give him that at least (we’ll ignore the fact he barracks for the Bombers)

  42. As a former speaker of the House of Representatives, Liberal MP David Hawker is not prone to outbursts of the sort you’d hear on Dad’s Army from Cpl Jack Jones whose regular catchcry was “Don’t panic!”

    But Mr Hawker, a veteran of the House since 1983 when he took the safe Liberal Victorian seat of Wannon vacated by Malcolm Fraser, isn’t so sure that there aren’t a few Cpl Joneses among his more inexperienced colleagues.

    In his 26-year career he’s served under six Liberal leaders — Andrew Peacock (twice), John Howard (twice), John Hewson, Alexander Downer, Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull — and he fears that the party faces the dreadful prospect of revolving door leadership in the months and years ahead if it doesn’t stay united and calm.

    So last week he took the unusual step of emailing his colleagues soon after the publication of polls showing Mr Turnbull’s rating as preferred prime minister had reached a new low and, worse, that the percentage of people satisfied with his performance had fallen below those dissatisfied for the first time.

    “Dear coalition colleagues,” his email began. “As one who lived through the leadership problems of the 1980s, my firm advice right now is hold your nerve.

    “Rudd’s popularity will fall. It will happen sooner than most realise. When it does it will be dramatic. When voters become tired of Labor they need to know we, the coalition, are credible, capable and dependable to lead again.

    “Our best approach is to be strongly united, continue incisive criticism and refine policy. There is a growing and palpable unease with Labor’s spending spree and we have many, many supporters relying on us to return to government soon.”

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=9&ContentID=136587

    Hawker just wants to be Australia’s most disgraceful speaker in history for a second time.

  47. He was Australia’s best ever speaker.

    He wouldn’t even let opposition members finish saying ‘point of order’! How can you praise someone that doesn’t even begin to listen to what a point of order is?

    I guess it shows where your parliamentary standards are – in the gutter.

  48. RE: unions and right of entry – we had a situation up here (probably still have) where the local trolley collectors were sacked and overnight replaced with people-who-were-obviously-not-local (based on skin colour!). They also didn’t speak much English and were housed in company premises. As they didn’t belong to a union, and unions couldn’t enter their workplace, there was no way for anyone to determine whether they were being employed legally. (As it turned out that the previous workers had been working for below award wages, and the company admitted that it had sacked them because the new workers were cheaper, most people could join the dots – but there was no proof).
    If unions have right of entry, then in such cases they can at least determine if workers are receiving their legal rights.

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