Morgan: 61-39

The latest weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 61-39, although its primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 51.5 per cent while the Coalition is unchanged on 33.5 per cent. The slack has been taken up by Family First and independent/others.


• The Central Midlands & Coastal Advocate reports that Liberal Kalgoorlie MP Barry Haase has been making himself known in the areas of O’Connor which will be in the new seat of Durack under the radically redrawn boundaries. Despite being 75 years old, Wilson Tuckey has reportedly been taking an interest in the city of Kalgoorlie, which along with the southern coast from Albany to Esperance and areas of the South West will constitute the redrawn O’Connor.

• Liberal National Party candidate Andrea Caltabiano is launching a challenge against her 74-vote defeat by Labor’s Steve Kilburn in Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. Claimed irregularities include double voting, particularly by candidates who lodged absent votes, and voters being wrongly removed from the roll.

• The Australasian Study of Parliament Group Queensland Chapter is holding a “behind the scenes review of the Queensland 2009 State Election” at the George Street parliamentary annexe from 6pm on Monday, Apirl 27. Star attractions are Antony Green, Treasurer Andrew Fraser, Keating government Attorney-General Michael Lavarch and Lawrence Springborg’s former chief-of-staff Paul Turner. RSVP by Monday to Erin Pasley, who can be reached at Erin-DOT-Paisley-AT-parliament-DOT-qld-DOT-gov-DOT-AU or on 3406 7931.

• No, I haven’t forgotten the May 2 Tasmanian Legislative Council elections – I will have a post up when I get time. In the meantime, Antony Green outlines the candidates.

NOTE: I am leaving open the previous thread for those who wish to continue the discussion, if that’s the right word, about asylum seekers, indigenous affairs, racism and the rest. This thread is for pretty much anything else.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,291 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. Yep, that’s the 2nd night of Chris Uhlmann banging on about Rudd “not being able to avoid these questions” without pointing to the slightest evidence that Rudd has avoided any.

    Get this through your thick skull, Uhlmann: we have a thing called the rule of law in Australia. Waiting for a police investigation is the NORMAL way to proceed.

    The last government was way out of line when it drew false conclusions in an unseemly rush to make political capital. That was ABNORMAL behaviour.

    If you dont believe me, listen to the NT Police. Clowns like Talcum and Barnett are only compromising the possibility of any prosecutions taking place in any Australian jurisdiction.

    As for TPVs – where’s the evidence they deter arrivals, Talcum? Go on, I’ll debate you myself. What you’ll notice is a massive SPIKE in arrivals in the years after it was introduced. It was a joke – it punished plenty, but deterred no-one at all.

  2. Turnbull was always in deep poo when he just scraped in as leader. Instead of stamping his authority he has been castrated by his oppenents.

  3. [But where did he go wrong? He seemed like the great white (!) hope of the Libs. Bright, in favour of an Oz republic, rich, a good speaker. ]


    actually I think that the problem is quite simple.


  4. Can you believe Turnbull is attakcing Rudd for saying there will be a recession, because it’s diverting attention from SIEVX?

    Yep 95 refugees/illegal immigrants vs the economy.

    Gee Malcolm what is more important…

    Take you time now…

  5. Chris Uhlmann days will be numbered. When the new management is firmly in place he will get sacked, moved or have to shape up. At the moment he is back to his pre election trashiness.

  6. I noticed the Government have wedged Turnbull again. The Government demanded that Turnbull come up with an alternative policy. Turnbull obliges by talking about TPVs. Government roll out Turnbull’s inconsist statements on this issue in recent months. Turnbull looks wishy washy. Turnbull loses.

    In contrast the Government say only what they want to, ignore the baying hounds of the media and starve the story of oxygen.

  7. centre @ 1186
    [He wants to talk to the Iranians. He wants to rid the world of nuclear weapons. He wants to hold discussions with the Cubans. He is shaking hands with Hugo Chavez]

    That’s right – bad choice, that Obama, wasn’t he? He’s clearly a soft-c*ck, commie, liberal, pinko, muslim-loving, appeasing accommodator. He must be stopped. Christ, if he keeps going with this there’ll be no-one left for Americans to hate, or be hated by. 🙂

    That would mean maybe reducing the $664 billion dollar US annual defence budget and the industrial part of ‘The Complex’ won’t like that. Watch your back Barry – and put on a bp vest. That’s the worry I have, given the rabid way the right are carrying on in the US.

  8. don,

    I reckon Turnbull’s problem is that he was over-boomed. He’s not a politician, even Latham was more of a professional than him. If you can’t control your own party, if you can’t lead – you’ve gotta go!

    Can you believe that he is calling for Rudd to tell the truth over the boat incident? After Howard’s truthful record? He should be differentiating his policies with Rudd’s first and then playing cheap points. Not the other way round!

  9. [Can you believe Turnbull is attakcing Rudd for saying there will be a recession, because it’s diverting attention from SIEVX?]

    Well if he did that then he is probably the biggest fool they have yet chosen as their leader (and I’m including Downer in that comparison the previous worst yet).

    If he does is doing that then he is unbelievably giving the impression to the public that the economy is now a lesser issue. Less important than this little storm. He has in fact partially trivialised his major election issue.

    This storm will fade into the distant but the impression that the economy is a lesser issue wont.

  10. [Watch your back Barry – and put on a bp vest. That’s the worry I have, given the rabid way the right are carrying on in the US.]

    JV, is not the Right that Bazza has to worry about. JFK and Bobby took on the Mafia and see what happened to them.

    Now Bazza and the Amigos are taking on the Mexican Drug Lords, they are the ones that Bazza has to watch his back from.

  11. [In contrast the Government say only what they want to, ignore the baying hounds of the media and starve the story of oxygen.]
    Rudd is a master at setting the agenda
    “We’ll decide what is news in this country” 😉

  12. “We tend to believe that if one party is trying it on in a political poll, their opponent probably is too, thus evening out the result.”

    HAHAHA idiots.

  13. Part of the problem of course is the bitter resentment of the old media that they can’t control the agenda like they used to do. They are up against the potent combination of a PM who can talk effortlessly to the electorate over their heads, and a proliferation of new media through which the electorate can *talk to itself* without needing a caste of self-appointed experts to mediate. As Corporal Jones used to say: “They don’t like it up ’em, sir!”

  14. Centre @ 1216
    [I think you might have backed him If I recall.]

    Indeed I did – had another fine bottle of Heathcote shiraz purchased from the winnings last night, in fact. I just hope Barack survives.

  15. Finns @ 1212
    Yes, agree, the threats will only grow close to home I suspect

    [“THE election of Barack Obama as president had not changed the attitude of Muslims towards the United States, an al-Qa’ida leader says in a new video”.]

    But they have a brand to protect – and supporters to keep focussed on mayhem, so of course they’d say that. The fact they put out such a video at all with that message it provides the insight.

  16. Oz

    They did have a point with the Road Minister poll. There were a huge number of very negative comments, about 10:1 against having a Road Safety Minister with a lead foot, while the internet poll shifted enormously but ended up 50:50. As I’ve said on several occasions, the only thing yuo can tell from an internet poll is whether the issue is important enough to a Party to manipulate it.

  17. [Gillard’s ‘PM potential’ attracts biographers – AN ASPIRING prime minister needs a narrative. Julia Gillard, the woman best placed to become Australia’s first female PM, is set to get two accounts of her life and politics.

    Authors Chris Wallace and Jacqueline Kent are working on separate biographies of the Deputy PM. The Wallace book is to be published by Allen and Unwin; the Kent one by Penguin. Neither is authorised, but Ms Gillard is expected to give interviews to both authors.]

    St. Kevin, be afraid and be very very afraid. Dateline: April 2014.

  18. [an al-Qa’ida leader says]

    Well their only reason for existence seems to be to kill and cause destruction so I don’t imagine they will be saying ‘peace and good will to all men’. Bush and Cheney were a god send for them, they were the best friends terrorists ( and defence contractors) could have, gave them a reason to be and helped recruit many to the ’cause’.

    Terrorists and Defence contractors will really hate Obama. He is bad for their business.

  19. The point is not whether the evil men who raun al-Qaeda like Obama or not, it’s whether their recruitment pool of deluded young Arab men will start to dry up as a result of the departure of Bush and the changed situation in Iraq. I think it might, but what we really need is some sign of progress on Israel-Palestine. Although Obama has a very good team on the job in Clinton, Mitchell and Blair, it’s unfortunate that Netanyahu has returned to power at just this otherwise propitious moment. Clinton will need to use all her occult superpowers to bend him to her will.

  20. Looks like the Immigration row is running out of steam when the best they can trot out to explain the Liberal’s policy which happens to be the one rejected at the last election, is this man. Apparently the Liberal policy is up for review but they can’t work out what it should be so they have defaulted to a tattered, old, failed policy as well as the Architect of that policy being resurrected. The policy for the future is whatever Andrews can remember about the past.

  21. [St. Kevin, be afraid and be very very afraid. Dateline: April 2014.]

    I think Kev may hand over in 2014 without being pushed Finns.

    PM is a very demanding job, April 2014 would be 6 1/2 years, through a recession, ETS, reconcilliation, massive public works and infrastructure. Would be able to opt out very satisfied with what he did and relax to writing and heading charible foundations.

    He is a big promoter of women, first GG, most women ministers, first deputy and acting PM, big backer of Bligh, first elected premier. He would know Julia’s ambitions and abilities and would not keep her dangling like Howard did with Costello.

  22. Rudd is a bit of genius, maybe. He can take the opportunity to come out and say we are going into a recession under the cover of the SIEV…

    The SIEV issue is a short term one and will fade away. Rudd gets away with confronting a major Opposition attack point as Turnbull is left in two minds which to go for. Turnbull will be like that dog with a bone in its mouth looking at the reflection of dog with a bone in its mouth.

    However I reckon this dog whistle will work on some, at least in the short term. Previous polls and Hanson showed there are enough around ready to feel ‘concerned’ about ‘not one of us’ types ‘streaming’ into the country.

    However when the issue blows over will people feel just a little bit of bad taste in their mouth and just a little uncomfortable with the Turnbull approach, the lasting impression that his behaviour brings, rather than the issue itself.

  23. Rudd is a very good politician.

    Here’s Turnbull today:
    [“It is a classic Rudd tactic isn’t it? It’s a distraction,” he said.

    “He isn’t able to provide Australians with the facts about the tragic events involving the unauthorised boat that blew up recently that had the tragic fire in which so many people were injured and three people were killed. ]

    By talking about the economy he has got Turnbull to say Australia going into a recession is “a distraction”. As though the real issue for Asutralians is 49 boat people, and whether or not an explosion on SIEV 36 was accidental or deliberate.

    I’m telling you, JWH has nothing on Rudd when it comes to being a smart politician.

  24. No. We are blessed to probably have the two best leaders at the same time in our life times. Rudd should stay until he breakes Hawkies record. Then it will be Hillary and Julia. 🙂

  25. Bligh and the New Opposition Leader were meeting this afternoon to talk about four year fixed parliamentary terms for Queensland. Could put a nice old strain on the Leader’s relationship with Deputy Leader Springborg who has a list of conditions longer than the Flemington straight attached to his concept of fixed four year terms.

  26. While waiting for 9 News to come on I saw a bit of “Who want’s to be a Millionaire”
    Q was “who made cat claws at Julia Gillard in QT”
    The contestant said Peter Costello 😀

  27. The economy and unemployment are the only issues that are big enough to help Turnbull gain ground.

    He can go hell for leather with these transitory events with the help of the media, but they often fade with little lasting effect. All that people will remember of this episode is the behaviour of Turnbull as the Govt has been fairly low keyed on it. And the Govt tactic or remaining low keyed on this type of issue is plain and best. And makes a pleasant change.

  28. Australian had a story of Bishop being pursued by the big swinging dicks, the Chaser boys would have afield day with that story dressed up in the appropriate costumes running after Julie.

  29. Just thinking about BSDs, this is a term from Liar’s Poker referring to financial market traders.

    Now who is the biggest BSD in this context? Malcolm Turnbull?

    Could it be that BSDs are in fact the Turnbull faction and they want to shaft Julie Bishop?

  30. Its so great to see the libs and their MSM cronies getting so frustrated that the government wants to wait for an official enquiry until releasing information into an incident. Wow, they’ve learnt so much from children overboard.

    I think they are FINALLY realising that they dont control the agenda anymore. What joy

  31. More pain for Turnbull in the Essential Research. Labor has comprehensively won the argument about broadband. The majority are spending their StimPac II money, only 35% are saving it or paying off debt.

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