Essential Research: 61-39

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor’s lead moderating slightly to 61-39 from 63-37 in the previous two surveys. In other findings, 54 per cent approve of the government’s national broadband network, while 62 per cent think Australia’s economy “better than most countries” in the current global financial crisis. For this, equal credit is given to “the actions of the Rudd government – including the stimulus packages” and a well-regulated finance and banking sector. “The Howard government’s handling of the economy” ranks somewhat lower. Also featured are questions on potential budget measures, the role of human rights in international trade, and China’s human rights record.

What’s more:

• George Megalogenis of The Australian charts the rise of the centre left with reference to long-term Newspoll trends.

• Glenn Milne of The Australian has written a skeptically received article which speaks of plotting against Julie Bishop partly motivated by Senator Mathias Cormann’s designs on her blue-ribbon seat of Curtin. Andrew Bolt has published Cormann’s denial.

• Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn advises the government to get hip by allowing voters to enrol online.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian notes the Victorian ALP is struggling to meet its affirmative action quota of 35 per cent female candidates in winnable seats, making it “almost imperative that a woman replaces a retiring woman, and that at least one in two of all retiring men are replaced by women”. While little action is expected ahead of the next federal election, speculation is said to surround the state seats of Craig Langdon (Ivanhoe), Peter Batchelor (Thomastown), Lynne Kosky (Altona) and John Pandazopoulos (Dandenong). More substantially, “former speaker Judy Maddigan has confirmed she will retire and she is expected to support former Labor staffer Natalie Sykes-Hutchins to replace her in the seat of Essendon”.

• Adelaide’s Independent Weekly reports on Malcolm Mackerras’s tip for next year’s state election: Labor to be comfortably returned, with the loss of only Norwood, Mawson and Light. The report notes something I had neglected to relate previously: SA Murray Irrigators Association chair Tim Whetstone was preselected in November as the Liberal candidate for Nationals MP Karlene Maywald’s seat of Chaffey, ahead of Citrus Growers of SA president Mark Chown and businessman Brian Barnett. Mackerras tips Whetstone to win.

• Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a post on whether the federal parliament should be enlarged, with reference to international practice.

• Possum notes the cubic polynomial distribution of two-party electorate results, and its implications for interpreting marginal seat exit polls.

Courtesy of the April edition of the invaluable Democratic Audit Update:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will hold a “roundtable public hearing” on submissions to the green paper on campaign finance at Parliament House on Thursday, from 9.30am to 1pm.

• The Greens’ “parliamentary contract” with Labor’s minority government in the Australian Capital Territory is reviewed by Jenny Stewart in the Canberra Times.

• Brian Costar examines Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn’s demolition of the spurious justifications for the Howard government’s 2005 electoral “reforms” at Inside Story.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a research paper on the electoral demise of the Australian Democrats by Cathy Madden.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,454 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  3. Interesting things to note from the Essential Research survey:

    1. While only 54% support the NBN, only 24% oppose it while 21% have no opinion. So it looks like the NBN is a political winner (at this stage).

    2. The report says that 46% of respondents would oppose cuts to defence spending, but only 33% approve. However, 53% support an increase in alcohol taxes with only 32% opposed. So it looks like the Coalition has backed a loser here as well…

  5. Swing Lowe went re:alcotaxes

    [So it looks like the Coalition has backed a loser here as well]

    Can anyone think of any issue where a Turnbull position has come down on the side of majority opinion?

    So saying, that probably speaks volumes about Rudd as well.

  6. [Can anyone think of any issue where a Turnbull position has come down on the side of majority opinion?]

    He backed the initial stimulus package – which, incidentally enough, led to his best approval ratings of his short career as Opposition leader

  7. I think Malcom’s problem with Rudd’s $43b broadband announcement is that most voters don’t have a context for $43b…..I mean, …how many billions are out there to spend? …..how do I make sense of the proposition to spend $43b in return for faster broadband…

    $43bn is the same amount of money (roughly) as:

    one year GST revenue from all of Australian taxable goods and services sold.
    one year commonwealth spend on Australia’s Health System
    one year entire commonwealth tax grant’s to the states
    two years of Defence spending

    Imagine stopping Commonwealth spending on health for one year…that’s how much Rudd is thinking of spending

  11. [Imagine stopping Commonwealth spending on health for one year…that’s how much Rudd is thinking of spending]

    True. But he’s spending it over 8 years, not 1…

  12. [Imagine stopping Commonwealth spending on health for one year…that’s how much Rudd is thinking of spending]

    That said, if Turnbull framed his arguments in those terms, he would probably be getting more political traction than he currently is by saying broadband is going to cost $100/month (or was that $200 🙂 )

  13. If Turnbull takes the party backward in 2010 then he’s gone.

    I dont think we’ll ditch him before 2010 after all who wants to be the captain of the ship when it goes down.

  15. Squiggle,

    Heard tonight that there are fibre infrastructures set up in Afghanistan, Cambodia and Vietnam all countries arguably less well off than Australia.

    Why isn’t there a fibre infrastructure in Australia so we can play in the big world economy. Howard and Costello sold off the public monopoly Telstra to a privitised monopoly. They didn’t invest in the network. They just raped and pillaged Australia for as much as they could.

    Now, you probably haven’t been pillaged before. So the consequences are that we are now years behind the rest of the world.

    Malcolm can whine as much as he likes. But this is a cost the country has to bear. More power to Kevvie’s arm.

  16. Glen, turn it up.We all know that once the Dissatisfaction for the Opposition Leader is Greater than the satisfaction rating as measured by Newspoll it is Good night and Good Luck in 2009 not 2010.

  18. Steve we’d be even more of a joke if we went through 4 leaders in 2 years.

    It is Turnbull or bust in 2010.

    That said if his numbers stay at 18% or go lower anything could happen.

  20. [Imagine stopping Commonwealth spending on health for one year…that’s how much Rudd is thinking of spending]

    Wrong.

    It’s 51% of $43 billion over 8 years which is less than $3 billion a year.

  22. Squiggle, maybe we should cut defence spending for two years. Heck, it’s not as if we are going to be attacked within two years. Better still, the world should cut defence spending for two years and invest it in their respective economies. 😉

  25. Jenny is living in la la land.
    Leave it to the Greens to come up with yet another Bennite Solution.

    Man’s inhumanity to man will not stop and as such we cannot cut defence spending to 0 as she would like it.

    I doubt the Chinese would reduce their defence budget based on some tree hugers one worlder idea.

  26. [Maybe Phillip Ruddock could lead the party]

    Maybe they could bring back Dr Nelson if the Hammock man won’t roll out the hammock.

  30. []defence spending needs more accountability.]

    So does the Federal Liberal Party need more accountability, what is stopping Costello from being Liberal Leader now?

  32. GG @ 15

    Could it be that you are applesing and oranging?

    It can require a military convoy just to travel between some of the main cities in Afghanistan, so I would be a bit doubtful that the fibre networks would reach anything like about 90% (?) of the population, which is the aim in Australia…

  34. I reckon the Hammock Man faces a real dilemma. If Turnbull leads the party at the next election, they are going to lose so many seats that they couldn’t possibly win in 2013. If Cossie goes for 2010 they will only lose a few more seats but it will be the end of his political career.

    Oh the joys of the liberals in opposition, I love it!

  36. http://anz.theoildrum.com/
    good site

    I agree with that article that its rather silly for those UK citizen permanent residents to get the vote whilest other permanent residents do not. Nevertheless I’d prefer it if we based ones voting rights on residents, not citizenship. There are ex-pats with the vote. Yet there are people who have lived their entire adult life in this country that have never had the opertunity to vote anywhere ever. Back in the day permanent residents could get conscripted but couldn’t vote. Today permanent residents pay tax but can’t vote. Whatever happened to NO TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION! Plenty of other countries use residence as the basis for suffragacy (if thats a word) and it hasn’t destroyed their country.

  37. The Defence Budget doesnt need slimming! lol aka Jumbo one of my favourite characters in Yes Minister.

    I wish they made more episodes.

  39. [I agree with that article that its rather silly for those UK citizen permanent residents to get the vote whilest other permanent residents do not. Nevertheless I’d prefer it if we based ones voting rights on residents, not citizenship. There are ex-pats with the vote. Yet there are people who have lived their entire adult life in this country that have never had the opertunity to vote anywhere ever. Back in the day permanent residents could get conscripted but couldn’t vote. Today permanent residents pay tax but can’t vote. Whatever happened to NO TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION! Plenty of other countries use residence as the basis for suffragacy (if thats a word) and it hasn’t destroyed their country.]

    But what about Ex-Pat Italians who can both vote and Run for the Italian Parliament ?

  42. Glen, what sort of man makes his profile as a Junior Barrister with $weets, one of the steppingstones to workchoices, gets involved in the HR Nicholls Society that pushes workchoices, is Treasurer when workchoices is introduced, then sleeps in a hammock rather than come out and face his second electoral rebuff over workchoices?

  43. Remember Bludgers you read it here first;
    a) he will be out of high school by then,
    b) his voice will have broken by then,
    c) an aging, balding, nerdy type,
    d) their next great John Howard,

    Greg Hunt to make the libs competitive again 😉

  45. steve

    That article is hilarious. I like this bit;

    [The major political parties are built on a foundation of political scheming, media spin and beating up those people they think are in their way. Both the major parties say they are not into spin yet continue to produce it faster than a fairy floss machine at a country show. ]

    And then to champion someone who is Mike Rann’s Minister for Water Security as being above such grubby tactics as spin is gut-bustingly funny. Maywald and Rann spin faster on water than a back-yard sprinkler, which of course we can’t use in SA.

  48. It was a gem Diogenes.

    Speaking of spin perhaps the Hammock Man could run a comical election campaign based on his economic genius. Perhaps he could begin the campaign launch with,”Interest Rates will always be lower under a Coalition Government.” His second part of the campaign launch could feature a debt truck with an explanation of how he lost control of the Current Account Deficit while he was Treasurer.

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