Essential Research: 61-39

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor’s lead moderating slightly to 61-39 from 63-37 in the previous two surveys. In other findings, 54 per cent approve of the government’s national broadband network, while 62 per cent think Australia’s economy “better than most countries” in the current global financial crisis. For this, equal credit is given to “the actions of the Rudd government – including the stimulus packages” and a well-regulated finance and banking sector. “The Howard government’s handling of the economy” ranks somewhat lower. Also featured are questions on potential budget measures, the role of human rights in international trade, and China’s human rights record.

What’s more:

• George Megalogenis of The Australian charts the rise of the centre left with reference to long-term Newspoll trends.

• Glenn Milne of The Australian has written a skeptically received article which speaks of plotting against Julie Bishop partly motivated by Senator Mathias Cormann’s designs on her blue-ribbon seat of Curtin. Andrew Bolt has published Cormann’s denial.

• Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn advises the government to get hip by allowing voters to enrol online.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian notes the Victorian ALP is struggling to meet its affirmative action quota of 35 per cent female candidates in winnable seats, making it “almost imperative that a woman replaces a retiring woman, and that at least one in two of all retiring men are replaced by women”. While little action is expected ahead of the next federal election, speculation is said to surround the state seats of Craig Langdon (Ivanhoe), Peter Batchelor (Thomastown), Lynne Kosky (Altona) and John Pandazopoulos (Dandenong). More substantially, “former speaker Judy Maddigan has confirmed she will retire and she is expected to support former Labor staffer Natalie Sykes-Hutchins to replace her in the seat of Essendon”.

• Adelaide’s Independent Weekly reports on Malcolm Mackerras’s tip for next year’s state election: Labor to be comfortably returned, with the loss of only Norwood, Mawson and Light. The report notes something I had neglected to relate previously: SA Murray Irrigators Association chair Tim Whetstone was preselected in November as the Liberal candidate for Nationals MP Karlene Maywald’s seat of Chaffey, ahead of Citrus Growers of SA president Mark Chown and businessman Brian Barnett. Mackerras tips Whetstone to win.

• Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a post on whether the federal parliament should be enlarged, with reference to international practice.

• Possum notes the cubic polynomial distribution of two-party electorate results, and its implications for interpreting marginal seat exit polls.

Courtesy of the April edition of the invaluable Democratic Audit Update:

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will hold a “roundtable public hearing” on submissions to the green paper on campaign finance at Parliament House on Thursday, from 9.30am to 1pm.

• The Greens’ “parliamentary contract” with Labor’s minority government in the Australian Capital Territory is reviewed by Jenny Stewart in the Canberra Times.

• Brian Costar examines Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn’s demolition of the spurious justifications for the Howard government’s 2005 electoral “reforms” at Inside Story.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a research paper on the electoral demise of the Australian Democrats by Cathy Madden.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,454 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  3. From George M’s piece:
    [Labor and the Greens can boast a combined primary vote above 50 per cent because of two shifts in public opinion during the past 10 or so years. The Greens have taken votes off Labor, but Labor has grabbed more from the Liberals.]

    This illustrates that Labor has captured for the moment the centre demographic that both majors have been after in the past 10 years, while the LNP’s image is still hanging out to dry to the right of centre – thanks to Howard’s policies.

    Malcolm has been unable to soften that LNP image because of the core rightists still lurking on his shoulder.

    The left-tending voter is now looking for policiesmore life-sustaining and progressive than the ALP now offers. It has made its durge-like ”christian democrat” intentions clear as it strives only to keep the LNP out of its former territory.

    But as we all now know from the previous thread, because of the unrepresentative system we have, those looking to alternative smaller groups will quite likely be sidelined while the two big players shoulder-charge each other towards the centre of the field on single seat preferences. There’s plenty of fresh air down the sideline but no-one else is allowed to run on and take the ball.

    It really is a travesty of representative democracy.

  6. [But that wont be too hard to bare if Prime Minister Greg Hunt stays PM for 12 years until 2028]

    But be grateful his first name isn’t Chris 🙂 The Spoonerisms would be most unfortunate 🙂

  7. [Remember Bludgers you read it here first;
    a) he will be out of high school by then,
    b) his voice will have broken by then,
    c) an aging, balding, nerdy type,
    d) their next great John Howard,]

    Centre, what about “when” he lost his virginity?

  8. JV,

    Cry me a river.

    Over the last 50 years or so we have had the DLP which was basically a bloc of ALP hating Catholics determined to see them out of power. Once Gough won in 1972, there raison d’etre vanished and their demise occurred rather quickly.

    The second was the Democrats who started out as dissatified Libs and ended up fulfilling a role as hand ringing centrists that didn’t like any one making a decision. Once Meg Lees made a decision on the GST their popularity declined rather dramatically and they disappeared from the scene.

    Now, we have the Greens who really fulfill the Bambi role in politics. They spout the doggerel of the concerned. But, as has been adequately explained here, most of their support comes from inner suburban enclaves of radical mummy’s boys and girls. Apparently, they are about to support the election of an ex Communist as their new messiah. Don’t like their chances. The Greens are yet another transitory fable of disaffection in the community. How long will they last?

  9. [Gus, SBS? Am watching the ABC1 Garden Show in Mexico.]

    Damn those tech savvy kids of mine and their penchant for renaming channels

    NTS get even newer glasses
    🙁

  10. Gusface, the Bolters supporters will be over here shortly to explain to the misguided lefties here that the answer is to put Costello in now. They are always fun people to deal with.

  11. [Number five and counting, Grog. This is just the beginning]

    or is it the end of the beginning??

    [if Prime Minister Greg Hunt stays PM for 12 years until 2028 ]

    worse things could befall the nation…

  13. Gus, now is Havana’s City gardens. Amigo Guantanamera,

    [I am a truthful man from this land of palm trees
    Before dying I want to share these poems of my soul
    My verses are light green
    But they are also flaming red]

  14. Glen:

    Would you agree that firm and decisive action needs to be taken against the anti-vaccination organisations?

    I’m all for tolerating ignorance and stupidity but the anti-vaccination folk are dangerous as well as stupid

  20. [Gusface, the Bolters supporters will be over here shortly to explain to the misguided lefties here that the answer is to put Costello in now]

    Nah , its way past their bedtime.
    🙂

  21. Ms Party

    [Would you agree that firm and decisive action needs to be taken against the anti-vaccination organisations?]

    Such as?

  22. [For you Amigo,]

    Also bastardised as “One Tony Lockett”

    or my more cruder version – “One Ton of Merda” aka One Ton of “Sh*t” 🙂

  24. [Nah , its way past their bedtime.]

    Didn’t stop them from posting about Maxine’s proposed brainwashing of toddlers to be become Leftie, pinko commies on Adelaide Now at Midnight WST.

  25. Frank why are the left bothering with ‘brainwashing’ in pre-school why not wait till they get to school that has been the usual practice.

    Everything has become sooo PC now adays and anything whitebread is attacked for being racist.

  26. Diogenes:

    Anything – these people are dangerous to children and adults alike – i would pass a law legally dissolving the main Australian anti-vax organisation and confiscate its assets – i would also pass laws making life as uncomfy as possible for anti-vax parents

  27. [Now, we have the Greens who really fulfill the Bambi role in politics. They spout the doggerel of the concerned. But, as has been adequately explained here, most of their support comes from inner suburban enclaves of radical mummy’s boys and girls. Apparently, they are about to support the election of an ex Communist as their new messiah. Don’t like their chances. The Greens are yet another transitory fable of disaffection in the community. How long will they last?]

    Who are singing this 🙂

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NvLkBA9vsQ

  31. Let’s face it things are boring now in Australian politics.

    2010 will be much more fun, elections galore overseas and at home and a Federal one to boot.

  32. [Frank why are the left bothering with ‘brainwashing’ in pre-school why not wait till they get to school that has been the usual practice.

    Everything has become sooo PC now adays and anything whitebread is attacked for being racist.]

    Spoken like a paranoid culture warrior.

  35. Things are dull in Australian politics.

    Case in point – William now no longer mentions who is leading in the Federal polls. He just assumes that we all know that Labor is up. The question now is – when will the Coalition next take the lead in a federal poll?

    I’m guessing some time in 2011 (after the next election). But I could be wrong…

  37. [Prime Minister Alex Hawke 2016-2031]

    Oh god, please no… i’ll cry.

    [Let’s face it things are boring now in Australian politics.]

    I prefer Australian politics to be boring. Much better than the divisive dogwhistling politics of Howard’s time.

  38. Finns

    No, I’ve been consoling Mrs D about the quote we got today to have watertanks and underground lines put in so we can have a lawn. I promise to download it though.

    Ms Party

    Unfortunately, lots of people do stupid things all the time which damage their children and the rest of society. Smoking cigarettes, drinking heavily, not vaccinating, feeding them crap etc etc. It’s pretty hard to single one out as much as we’d like to.

    Our “herd immunity” to a few horrible diseases like whooping cough is dropping to the point where we are going to get serious outbreaks. But what to do is the hard thing.

  39. [Prime Minister Alex Hawke 2016-2031

    Oh god, please no… i’ll cry.]

    Bob,
    I think Glen done a mistake in his post.

    He was referring to Austria not Australia

  40. Things will heat up again after the May budget and Turnbull threatens to block everything.

    Don’t worry Bob. Alex Hawke is my MP. If he ever becomes PM, and if the money is good from you Bludgers, I’ll go and rub him out 😀

    Finns, maybe e) at post 57.

  41. 61-39. Our only hope is 2013. I suggest a Victorian dream team of Peter Costello and Greg Hunt or a Queensland dream team of Mal Brough and Peter Dutton. It’s a good start.

  42. [And Frank, Barry was so much older than, he’s younger than that now]

    And Barry is now a Born Again Christian singing Gospel music.

    And trivia buffs should note that he recorded the original version of California Dreaming using the same backing track, which was later used for the Mamas and Papas version and if you listen very carefully to that version, you can just hear very faintly Barry singing “All the Trees”, as the vocal track wasn’t erased properly.

  43. Bree, leadership counts but we need some good policies and Turnbull has provided 0 so far.

    I really think Mal Brough should be given a safe seat for 2010 and Peter Dutton in 2013 if he loses his seat in 2010.

    2013 we’ll have a good crack like the ALP had in 2001. So we have to sort ourselves out now.

  44. Bree
    option 1
    go for the happy clappers- Abbott and Bishop

    option 2
    go for the comedy buffs- Abbott and Costello

    option 3
    go for the twins vote-Bishop and Bishop

    option 4
    go for the undead/zombie vote-Ruddock and Tuckey

    option 5
    bend over and kiss your ass goodbye till 2021

  46. I agree, Glen. We are very fortunate not to be in the same position as Labor going into the 1998 federal election. In fact, if we get the same swing Labor got in 1998, then will be in office.

  48. [I really think Mal Brough should be given a safe seat for 2010 and Peter Dutton in 2013 if he loses his seat in 2010.]
    Hah. Glen already preparing for the worst?

    Actually, it will be interesting to see what the redistribution committee does to Dickson.

  50. [I suggest a Victorian dream team of Peter Costello and Greg Hunt ]

    Bree, two points about your “dream team””

    1. just dont confuse H with the C.

    2. Apparently the day when Hunt lost his virginity, he shouted “look, no hand”.

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