Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread

So much going on at the moment that it can’t wait for the next opinion poll post:

• Brendan Nelson’s announcement he will vacate his blue-ribbon northern Sydney seat of Bradfield at the next election could initiate another of the classic preselection clashes for the NSW branch of the Liberal Party has become justly famous in recent years. Party sources quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian say the preselection will be “the most open and hotly contested since Bronwyn Bishop succeeded Jim Carlton in the neighbouring seat of Mackellar in 1994”, with no clear front-runner and neither Right or Left controlling the seat. However, it is also “understood party bigwigs are intent on avoiding a repeat of the preselection debacle in 2007 in the southern Sydney seat of Cook”. Salusinszky’s report floated the possibility of his paper’s conservative pundit Janet Albrechtsen taking the field, but she promptly ruled herself out. Live possibilities apparently include another connection with The Australian in Tom Switzer, former opinion page editor and staffer to Nelson; Arthur Sinodinos, John Howard’s legendary chief-of-staff; Nick Farr-Jones, former rugby union international; Julian Leeser, executive director of the Menzies Research Centre; Geoff Selig, former state party president; Alister Henskens, barrister and local party office-holder; David Elliott, former Australian Hotels Association deputy chief executive; Paul Blanch, a sheep farmer who ran in Calare in 2004; and, as always, Adrienne Ryan, former Ku-ring-gail mayor and ex-wife of former police commissioner Peter Ryan. The Sydney Morning Herald reports we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for a result:

A state executive meeting tomorrow is likely to discuss the timetable for the preselection race but because of a redistribution of seats in NSW, the final ballot will not be held until the end of the year. Because of that, most Liberal insiders believe the final candidate has yet to emerge.

• The Electoral Commissioner’s federal electoral determination has been published, confirming redistributions will need to occur to remove a seat from New South Wales and add one to Queensland. There seems to be some confusion abroard as to whether this scotches any chance of an election this year. As Antony Green explains, it is indeed the case that Queensland cannot be deprived of the seat which it is constitutionally entitled to at the next election now that the determination has been made, and it is indeed true that a redistribution process takes the better part of a year. However, the Electoral Act lays out a set of procedures for “mini-redistributions” in these circumstances, in which the two most or least heavily enrolled adjoining electorates in the state are either divided into three or merged into two. This has never happened before, and there would be obvious political difficulties in justifying an election held under such slapdash arrangements if it could possibly be avoided.

• Could Western Australia’s May 16 daylight saving referendum be the catalyst for a super Saturday of state by-elections? It certainly seems war clouds are gathering over the electorates of the two most powerful figures in the defeated Carpenter government: Jim McGinty, the member for Fremantle, and Alan Carpenter himself, who holds the neighbouring seat of Willagee (surely I have not so pleased the Lord that He would grant me neighbouring same-day by-elections in my own backyard?). According to Jenny D’Anger of the Fremantle Herald:

In the face of persistent rumours that veteran state Labor MP Jim McGinty is about to trigger a by-election for Fremantle by announcing his retirement, the Greens have called a war cabinet to talk tactics and anoint a candidate. It is all but certain they will choose South Fremantle’s Adele Carles, who came within a whisker of taking the seat at last year’s state election … Ms Carles says if the powerbroker is considering calling it quits he should do it so the by-election can coincide with the daylight saving referendum in May, saving thousands of dollars … The tom-toms have been beating for weeks that Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri was the shoe-in as Labor’s choice to replace Mr McGinty. But more recently a senior union figure has emerged as a front-runner, which a Labor insider says had Mr Tagliaferri threatening to run as an independent (Word around the campfire is that this refers to Dave Kelly, one of McGinty’s successors at the LHMWU – PB). The Herald’s Labor source said Alan Carpenter also had to be taken into account: If the former premier decides to quit politics the union figure may prefer Mr Carpenter’s safe Willagee seat, which is not threatened by the Greens. This would leave Fremantle open for Mr Tagliaferri. But both Mr McGinty and Mr Tagliaferri are denying a by-election is imminent. “It’s no more than rumour-mongering,” Mr McGinty barked down the phone, adding he stood by the Herald’s report last November that he had no plans to go early but was unlikely to run again in 2013.

• Killjoy Harry Quick has gone back on his threat to run against Treasurer Michael Aird as Greens candidate in the looming upper house election for Derwent. According to the ABC, Quick says “his family has played second fiddle to his political aspirations for too long”. An earlier report said he was “understood to be ready withdraw his nomination due to family pressure to stay true to the Labor Party”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,270 comments on “Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread”

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  2. [I’m not sure that the privilege of being ridiculed by Albanese every day is what I’d call a “plum job.” Can we imagine the fun Albo will have with Pyne?]
    I’m quite looking forward to it!

    But seriously, Pyne was justice shadow (essentially junior to the shadow attorney general) under Nelson. Turnbull gave him Education (a shadow cabinet portfolio) and now M.O.B. That is pretty good going in a short space of time, and is pretty obvious that he is trying to piss people like Tonys Smith & Abbot off.
    [True ShowsOn. One can but dream of the infrastructure they could have built had they not frittered away billions in pre election tax cuts.]
    I agree. The federal government could’ve paid for a de-sal plant in every state that needed it, freeing them up to spend hundreds of millions more on schools and hospitals instead.
    [I’m sure Abbott would be quite peeved at not getting Manager Of Government Business,]
    LOL! This is a funny mistake, because initially I wrote “Leader of the House”.
    [The dry’s have had enough of Turnbull’s shift to rebuild the Party in his own image. It keeps spilling into the media and li looks like getting better and better.]
    Yeah I agree. But I have some sympathy for the bloke, if I was trying to buy my way to becoming P.M., I’d want everything my way too. 😀
    [Sky Noos has the Bernardi story as Breaking News.]
    Did they get it off the AdelaideNow website?

  5. Oh this is the saddest Pyne related thing I’ve ever heard!
    [In a statement, Mr Pyne denied having ever considered joining the Labor Party.

    He listed examples of his Liberal Party loyalty including saying he had “campaigned for the Liberal Party in 1975, aged 8 years old, wearing a “Turn On The Lights: Liberal” badge to school in grade three”.]

  6. The Wet Liberals on the Tiser site have gone into meltdown. Evidently, the Liberal Party will never win another election now that it has lost it’s best Senator. We’re gonna get an awful load of hubris to eat at some stage but how much worse can it get for the Libs?

  7. Comments on Costello on PM Agenda say he won’t “leave Parliament period end of sentance” until he is “satisfied” with the person to succeed him in Higgins and that he won’t be happy unless that person is “cabinet level and/or PM material” and that Costello isn’t happy with those prospects at present so he isn’t going anywhere ….. that came from Glen Milne btw.

  9. [Evidently, the Liberal Party will never win another election now that it has lost it’s best Senator.]
    It’s a pretty sick party when he’s the best they can do. And they are right, he had the #1 spot on the ticket!
    [he won’t be happy unless that person is “cabinet level and/or PM material”]
    That rules out gutless Kroger running for spineless Costello’s seat.

  10. Peter Costello being done up as for the opening of the 2031 Parliament as first Liberal PM since John Howard back in 2007. He has done very well. No, it wasn’t Julie Bishop that is doing the touch-up.

  11. [Comments on Costello on PM Agenda say he won’t “leave Parliament period end of sentance” until he is “satisfied” with the person to succeed him in Higgins and that he won’t be happy unless that person is “cabinet level and/or PM material” and that Costello isn’t happy with those prospects at present so he isn’t going anywhere ….. that came from Glen Milne btw.]

    Goodness, he’s going to be the oldest ever MP if he’s waiting for someone of PM material to come along because, as we all know, that person hasn’t even been born.

  13. are the libs committing particide.

    I hope so.
    🙂

    [Unfortunately for him the question is “Who’s doing most damage: Turnbull or Costello?”]

    Dont let Bree see that
    😉

  16. [And such impartial questions, too. Where is “Turnbull, for being a pompous, irresponsible, reckless, dangerous, selfish, megalomaniac?”]
    What’s that Victorian state seat that should be Liberal held, but the Liberal candidates try to buy it with thousands of dollars worth of advertising, so it has been Labor since 1999?

  19. Bernardi stands by his comments and will not retract them. However, he refuses to confirm that this individual is Pyne and claims that the media put those words into his mouth. He said the incident in question took place 14 years ago and he’s carried the memories with him that long.

  20. [Mr Abbott today told 2GB radio if the Government were to raise the pension in the current economic circumstances, it would amount to an “enormous hit on the revenue”.

    “I think something like this would need to be considered very carefully and very cautiously,” he said.

    “I think that at least in the short term a better way of proceeding might be to look at those pensioners who are doing it toughest, such as pensioners who don’t own their own home and targeting assistance directly to them.”

    Mr Abbott’s comments have prompted Nationals leader Warren Truss to speak out, saying he does not agree with Mr Abbott’s position.

    Also speaking to 2GB, Mr Truss said the Coalition’s stance on the issue has not changed.

    “[An increase] has been our publicly declared position,” he said.

    “We haven’t moved away from that position and I don’t have any plans to move away from it.

    “He’s obviously got his views on the issue. My views I guess are somewhat different.”]

    Such bickering on so many fronts. It’s the Liberal equivalent of the Victorian bushfire situation – too many fires to effectively control.

    What’s that old saying? Something along the lines of “If you can’t manage your own party situation how the hell can you manage Australia?

  21. Final comments – Bernardi says he is not “in a position to retract comments” when those comments relate to fact/truth and are not an opinion.

  23. [He said the incident in question took place 14 years ago and he’s carried the memories with him that long.]
    Written down on a piece of paper that he keeps in his wallet?

    I know how Turnbull could piss Bernardi off even more – make Pyne the shadow for disabilities, carers and the voluntary sector, as well as Education!

    Oh, and he could email Bernardi instructing him to have the banner on his webpage fixed: http://www.senatorbernardi.com/

  24. What has Bernardi actually been sacked from? Just his portfolio or worse?

    Plenty of comments on the Tiser site that Turnbull sacked the wrong one. Dunno what he was meant to sack Pyne for but the Lib Right’s forte isn’t rational thought.

  25. [What has Bernardi actually been sacked from? Just his portfolio or worse?]
    He was shadow for disabilities, carers and the voluntary sector (essentially a shadow parliamentary secretary), but now he will go to the back bench.

    That will probably suit him, because he seems to enjoy making Senate speeches against Liberal policy.

  26. 222, Steve I think he was BUT my kids had just arrived home from school so I didn’t hear the last few minutes of what he said. Perhaps someone else has heard that answer (?) or you can check the Skynews podcast later?

  28. What is this about Costello’s concerns that the person who succeeds him in Higgins is Cabinet or PM material? The good people of Higgins do not have one in either position now and haven’t for a while.

  30. 228 & 229, those were Glen Milne’s words. I do not know how close he travels to Costello these days so can’t be sure how true that statement is to Costello’s actual own thinking.

  32. [Where was the conviction, the beliefs, the values that I believe should motivate our political leaders?]

    These are Bernardi’s own words (today) in describing shock at Pyne’s admission. Maybe Bernardi is a Liberal with a sense of values that go beyond blatant opportunism.

  34. [These are Bernardi’s own words (today) in describing shock at Pyne’s admission. Maybe Bernardi is a Liberal with a sense of values that go beyond blatant opportunism.]
    Where is his “sense of values” when spreading the lie that the Governor General is our Head of State? He seems very willing to make up nonsense just to support his lame arguments. That’s not someone I would ever trust.
    [Thank you for your email regarding the republic debate on 20 April.
    In response to your question, the Australian head of State has been recognised by successive governments as the Governor-General, an Australian appointed by the government of the day.
    Once again, thank you for your correspondence.
    Yours sincerely
    Cory
    CORY BERNARDI
    Liberal Senator for South Australia
    Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Families and Community Services ]

  35. The timing of the Bernardi pique of honesty has to be related to Pyne being selected over Abbott for the MOB in Parliament. The right wing trogs switched to Turnbull at the leadership spill and have received none of the plums as their due reward. They’re mad as hell and won’t take it any more.

    I suspect that Costello despises Abbott, Minchin et al as much as Turnbull. So this Pyne stuff is just a drive by shooting to let Turnbull know they can cause trouble.

  36. [Happy days are here again :D]
    Parliament is going to be great next week!
    Hockey as #2 choice for shadow treasurer
    Hockey that people are richer now than ever
    Bernardi / Pyne affair
    Will Julie Bishop remain deputy?
    Abbott unhappy he isn’t manager of opposition business
    Dutton unhappy he isn’t manager of opposition business
    Costello waiting to be Leader of the Opposition

  37. Gusface

    #30
    “Could one of the esteemed psephological troika please direct me (Monarchs

    actual powers). to where..”

    “esteemed psephological troika”..I don’t fit first 2 , but hav been called ‘troika’

    I can quote if you’re interested all varous sections of Constitution on both Queen & GG ,powers there’s a lot ….however th result is a an apparently confusing three & one ¼ way plus square triangle of a Constituton done in 1900 for THOSE 1900 tikmes

    ..of th Queen being part of troika of having legislative powers on one hand , plus a GG being her Representativ for those powers that apart from specific social duties include specific reel powerful powers on othr hand , plus a Senate & HOR with powers on third hand , and extra powers & jobs that Queen may decide to giv GG on ¼ hand , and maybe some “conventions” as a bonus to add confusion

    Monarchists luv this initialy confusing legal square triangle , because our Republicon debate always ends up trying to unravel this legal triangle with legal complexity and interpretation AND often division between Republicons as well…. meaning Royalists get off th hook in having to actualy debate/defend this absurb 21st Century foreigner ‘involvement’/’link’ to our sovereign independent country called Nation Australia

    Summary of varous “powers” answer , if you short cut

    1/ Queen still has power to giv GG powers & jobs , but they ar undefined ,

    2/ GG has social duties but also has enormous specific powers (some frightening & theoretically despotic powers ) over our Country but here is th confusion triangle legal trick…he GG has them not th Queen …yet he th GG is th Queens representative… and he must be legaly pre approved by th Queen ….and she th Queen has th power to reject that nomination/not to approve

    3/ HOR/Senate also hav specific legaslative Parliamentary powers , but as an overall part of troika with th Queen so adding to point 3/ apparent confusion

    4/ there ar these ‘conventions’ ..many great until a Sir Joh smashs them
    Solution…foerget th above legal triangles completely , its th ‘Royalists’ battleground to confuse/divide us Republicans

    Instead simply argue for ‘kiss and gradualism’ principals like:

    A/ we Ausralians simply want back THAT power of pre approval of a “GG”/”President”….then that gets th Queen in principal right out of oz 99%

    That’s achievd by getting oz voters ‘sentiment’ answer in principal first
    via a plebiscite queston yes/ no on a Republic (but my original longer version)

    This approach avoids getting into th above confusing legal square triangle s of a 1900 constitution AND then opens field in principal for easy legal options THEN to be takn

    B/ with a ‘yes’ answer (expect 80% incl 50% of Libs) , only THEN does one addres all these above legal triangle complecitys of

    (i) if Ptresident keeps all or some current GG reserve powers , some despotic ones hav to go to Parliament for sure
    (ii) codify fully ,
    (iii) codafy ‘conventions’ and

    (iv) decide/educate on direct election vs HoR/senate appontment options…get a cart before th horse first surely

    C/ remove last 1% of her undefined powers to give GG powers & jobs and also th consequential legal stuff re queen in our Constitution , easy then done with point (b)

    Obvious you hav Republicon knowledge , perhaps this clarifys but its my view

  38. [Parliament is going to be great next week!]

    I had to check to see if this is correct. I thought it was the following week. Just goes to show how confusing it can be when the one party runs both sides of the argument during a parliamentary recess. It’s almost like normal parliament except much juicier.

  39. In the end Barton headed off an attempt by British business interests to make the Privy Council the final place of appeal for High Court cases.

    AG

    Isn’t that what we ended up with for 80 odd years anyway?

  40. Shows On,

    But wait, there’s more…..

    Hockey v Rudd on Q & A tonight
    Howard rebuttal of Rudd tonight
    Abbott telling pensioners they shouldn’t get a $35 rise in the next budget
    Another Newspoll on Monday

    And there is still all of Friday and the weekend for the Libs to demonstrate how relevant they are to Australia’s future.

  41. 222 & 226, heard a bit more about 5 to 10 minutes ago and apparently the stuff came to the fore now because one of his constituents asked him about his motivation for getting into politics. It was something along the lines of “not what motivates this guy” {my words in the quotes} as he said those words stuck with him from that day and he wanted to make sure he was entering politics for the right reasons and convictions.

    238, yes Parliament on in all its glory next week 😀

  42. GG

    Is QANDA live?

    Joe Hockey can’t be looking forward to it tonight. It’s pretty hard to spin the last week for the Libs. He’ll be eating an awful lot of humble pie tonight.

  43. [Hockey v Rudd on Q & A tonight]
    Is it going to be Rudd or Swan?
    [Abbott telling pensioners they shouldn’t get a $35 rise in the next budget]
    They just played the audio of Abbott on Channel 10 News.
    [Another Newspoll on Monday]
    YES! Can’t wait for this. My prediction, 58/42

  47. [Isn’t that what we ended up with for 80 odd years anyway?]

    The Australian delegation to London in 1900 wanted to make the High Court the final court of appeal for all Australian cases. But the states lobbied Joseph Chamberlain, the Colonial Secretary, to retain the Privy Council in London as the highest court of appeal. Chamberlain forced the Australians to agree to this. He conceded, however, that cases to do with the constitutional powers of the Commonwealth and states (“inter se” cases) could not be appealed beyond the High Court. The states eventually abolished Privy Council appeals themselves – in think Qld was the last to do so.

  50. The privy council appeals were abolished in two stages in (1968 and 1986 I think it was) by the Commonwealth (there is a special provision for bills doing this to be reserved for the Queens assent).

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