Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread

So much going on at the moment that it can’t wait for the next opinion poll post:

• Brendan Nelson’s announcement he will vacate his blue-ribbon northern Sydney seat of Bradfield at the next election could initiate another of the classic preselection clashes for the NSW branch of the Liberal Party has become justly famous in recent years. Party sources quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian say the preselection will be “the most open and hotly contested since Bronwyn Bishop succeeded Jim Carlton in the neighbouring seat of Mackellar in 1994”, with no clear front-runner and neither Right or Left controlling the seat. However, it is also “understood party bigwigs are intent on avoiding a repeat of the preselection debacle in 2007 in the southern Sydney seat of Cook”. Salusinszky’s report floated the possibility of his paper’s conservative pundit Janet Albrechtsen taking the field, but she promptly ruled herself out. Live possibilities apparently include another connection with The Australian in Tom Switzer, former opinion page editor and staffer to Nelson; Arthur Sinodinos, John Howard’s legendary chief-of-staff; Nick Farr-Jones, former rugby union international; Julian Leeser, executive director of the Menzies Research Centre; Geoff Selig, former state party president; Alister Henskens, barrister and local party office-holder; David Elliott, former Australian Hotels Association deputy chief executive; Paul Blanch, a sheep farmer who ran in Calare in 2004; and, as always, Adrienne Ryan, former Ku-ring-gail mayor and ex-wife of former police commissioner Peter Ryan. The Sydney Morning Herald reports we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for a result:

A state executive meeting tomorrow is likely to discuss the timetable for the preselection race but because of a redistribution of seats in NSW, the final ballot will not be held until the end of the year. Because of that, most Liberal insiders believe the final candidate has yet to emerge.

• The Electoral Commissioner’s federal electoral determination has been published, confirming redistributions will need to occur to remove a seat from New South Wales and add one to Queensland. There seems to be some confusion abroard as to whether this scotches any chance of an election this year. As Antony Green explains, it is indeed the case that Queensland cannot be deprived of the seat which it is constitutionally entitled to at the next election now that the determination has been made, and it is indeed true that a redistribution process takes the better part of a year. However, the Electoral Act lays out a set of procedures for “mini-redistributions” in these circumstances, in which the two most or least heavily enrolled adjoining electorates in the state are either divided into three or merged into two. This has never happened before, and there would be obvious political difficulties in justifying an election held under such slapdash arrangements if it could possibly be avoided.

• Could Western Australia’s May 16 daylight saving referendum be the catalyst for a super Saturday of state by-elections? It certainly seems war clouds are gathering over the electorates of the two most powerful figures in the defeated Carpenter government: Jim McGinty, the member for Fremantle, and Alan Carpenter himself, who holds the neighbouring seat of Willagee (surely I have not so pleased the Lord that He would grant me neighbouring same-day by-elections in my own backyard?). According to Jenny D’Anger of the Fremantle Herald:

In the face of persistent rumours that veteran state Labor MP Jim McGinty is about to trigger a by-election for Fremantle by announcing his retirement, the Greens have called a war cabinet to talk tactics and anoint a candidate. It is all but certain they will choose South Fremantle’s Adele Carles, who came within a whisker of taking the seat at last year’s state election … Ms Carles says if the powerbroker is considering calling it quits he should do it so the by-election can coincide with the daylight saving referendum in May, saving thousands of dollars … The tom-toms have been beating for weeks that Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri was the shoe-in as Labor’s choice to replace Mr McGinty. But more recently a senior union figure has emerged as a front-runner, which a Labor insider says had Mr Tagliaferri threatening to run as an independent (Word around the campfire is that this refers to Dave Kelly, one of McGinty’s successors at the LHMWU – PB). The Herald’s Labor source said Alan Carpenter also had to be taken into account: If the former premier decides to quit politics the union figure may prefer Mr Carpenter’s safe Willagee seat, which is not threatened by the Greens. This would leave Fremantle open for Mr Tagliaferri. But both Mr McGinty and Mr Tagliaferri are denying a by-election is imminent. “It’s no more than rumour-mongering,” Mr McGinty barked down the phone, adding he stood by the Herald’s report last November that he had no plans to go early but was unlikely to run again in 2013.

• Killjoy Harry Quick has gone back on his threat to run against Treasurer Michael Aird as Greens candidate in the looming upper house election for Derwent. According to the ABC, Quick says “his family has played second fiddle to his political aspirations for too long”. An earlier report said he was “understood to be ready withdraw his nomination due to family pressure to stay true to the Labor Party”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,270 comments on “Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread”

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  2. [Such a plan to legislate a republic may run into trouble with the wording of the schedule which implies/says that the King or Queen of the United Kingdom is who is referred to as Queen in the Constitution.]

    I dealt directly with that point in my post earlier.

  6. [Albanese alleged that Turnbull once asked Keating to make him an ALP Senator. Has this allegation been proved or disproved?]
    Bree says she can remember seeing it mentioned on the cover of a Sydney paper. It was Graham Richardson’s old seat.

  9. I disagree. The Constitution cannot be amended without a referendum and I am sure that there are people and organisations who would bring to court a challenge to a legislated republic.

  10. [there are people and organisations who would bring to court a challenge to a legislated republic]

    They could only do so by arguing that Australia is still bound by legislation of the UK Parliament. That would be a hard case to make.

  11. [The Constitution cannot be amended without a referendum and I am sure that there are people and organisations who would bring to court a challenge to a legislated republic.]
    I agree. I can’t see how the Australian parliament can amend an act of the U.K. parliament.

    And even if they could amend the act, does that imply amending the constitution itself? Isn’t the constitution more than just another act because of Section 128?

  14. Wow, Pyne is such a little b!tch, heres someone who plays the man instead of the ball the whole time, and then uses his moderate votes to force a resignation when he’s on the end of it…Soft Pyne Soft.

  17. [I can’t see how the Australian parliament can amend an act of the U.K. parliament.]

    They would not be amending it. They would be over-riding it.

    [does that imply amending the constitution itself?]

    No. As I carefully explained, the Constitution of Australia Constitution Act 1900 is not part of the Constitution. It is merely the package the Constitution came in, now discarded.

  20. In the 1950’s Labor hero Gough Whitlam was a member of the Liberal Party Likewise Don Dunstan was a member of the Liberal Party before joining Labor and later becoming Premier. Someone has already mentioned Billy Hughes and then there was Joe Lyons both in non-labor parties that were forerunners to todays Liberal Party. The defections between Labor and Liberal often remind us of how Australia would be a one party state without that other third main party to aid variety our Country to National Party.

  27. [She saw it reported at the time?]
    This is her post from the previous thread:
    [ShowsOn – “Turnbull asked Keating to make him a Senator for NSW when Graham Richardson retired in 1994?
    Bree – I remember that. It actually first made the news headlines about a few months after the 1993 federal election.]
    Maybe it was just another part of her anti-Turnbull rant.
    [No. As I carefully explained, the Constitution of Australia Constitution Act 1900 is not part of the Constitution. It is merely the package the Constitution came in, now discarded]
    I don’t understand how you can make a new constitutional act that automatically overrides the old one. Surely this would just result in a massive dispute, and would be a harder way to amend the constitution than just using ye old Section 128. The Liberals would never support such a move.
    [In the 1950’s Labor hero Gough Whitlam was a member of the Liberal Party]
    Woah, I’ve never heard this before!
    [how Australia would be a one party state]
    That seems unlikely. Plus, the Nats vote the same as the Liberals when they are in government, so they are just a sub-faction of the Liberals.

  28. [ Australia would be a one party state without that other third main party to aid variety our Country to National Party. ]

    You’re forgetting Julian McGauran. 😉

  29. [I don’t understand how you can make a new constitutional act that automatically overrides the old one. ]

    In 1900 Australia was part of the British Empire. The UK Parliament legislated to bring the Constitution into effect. That Act was the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. It was not then and is not now part of the Constitution. It was and is an Act of the UK Parliament, and since Australia is no longer part of the British Empire it is not binding on Australia if we choose to legislate otherwise. Is that clear?

  32. [Bernardi appears to have been sacked by Turnbull after a damaging spat with fellow South Australian politician Christopher Pyne.]

    Can the Libs run a chook raffle at the moment?

  33. I hope Hockey tries to argue this tonight on Q & A
    :

    [“Imagine if Ben Chifley and Robert Menzies had given every Australian a cheque for 50 pounds instead of building the Snowy Mountains Scheme,” he said.

    “Imagine for all those major projects that have developed over Australian history, if the Government had simply given the money to the people instead of building massive infrastructure.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/19/2495975.htm?section=australia

    Almost had me crash the car when I heard it. After 11 years of doing nothing the Libs want to make that point! The biggest infrastructure work they ever planned was scrapped before it got off the ground namely, the extension to the dining room at John and Janet Bucket’s harbour side residence

  34. Somethings funny is happening with the Cory Bernardi rumour/story. The Tiser is reporting it as unverified fact about to be announced. But the OO hasn’t linked the story at all. The OO will normally just link a national Tiser story to keep up to date with breaking news but they haven’t this time.

    I bet the Lib Right is making a few phone calls to shut it up and reverse the decision so they don’t want their press officers at the OO spreading it.

  36. [I bet the Lib Right is making a few phone calls to shut it up and reverse the decision so they don’t want their press officers at the OO spreading it.]
    Surely it will be all out war if it happens. In the SMH there is a story about how annoyed Abbott is for not becoming Manager of Government Business. The Right is getting annoyed that Turnbull is giving out all the plum jobs in the House to wets.

  39. [Hockey still doesn’t grasp the meaning of the word “stimulus”. Massive infrastructure projects have a long lead time. They don’t stimulate spending NOW.]
    Most people don’t seem to realise this. So it is good politics (but dumb economics) to base an attack on this misunderstanding.

  40. [Somethings funny is happening with the Cory Bernardi rumour/story. The Tiser is reporting it as unverified fact about to be announced. But the OO hasn’t linked the story at all. The OO will normally just link a national Tiser story to keep up to date with breaking news but they haven’t this time.]

    SMH have it now

  43. True ShowsOn. One can but dream of the infrastructure they could have built had they not frittered away billions in pre election tax cuts.

  44. ShowsOn @ 186

    I’m sure Abbott would be quite peeved at not getting Manager Of Government Business, considering the fact that the Coalition got voted out of Government 15 months ago 🙂

  45. ShowsOn

    There clearly is a huge fight for the corrupted, blackened, evil, limpid disaster that is the Liberal Party’s soul. The dry’s have had enough of Turnbull’s shift to rebuild the Party in his own image. It keeps spilling into the media and li looks like getting better and better.

  47. It’s in the OO now. The last sentence doesn’t bode too well does it! 😆

    [MALCOLM Turnbull has sacked Liberal senator Cory Bernardi after he accused senior frontbencher Christopher Pyne of saying he would have happily joined the Labor Party.

    Senator Bernardi was the shadow parliamentary secretary for disabilities, carers and the voluntary Sector.

    It is understood Senator Bernardi was asked to retract the comments and apologise but he has refused, prompting Mr Turnbull to sack him.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25078153-601,00.html

  49. Oh mercy! Who needs reality TV when you’ve got the Federal Libs to watch. Is it possible for a political party to be awarded “The Biggest Loser” medal?

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