The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.
UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd’s approval is down seven points to 63 per cent; Turnbull’s is down two to 45 per cent, his weakest result to date.
Elsewhere:
• Essential Research’s weekly survey has produced a status quo 59-41 result, along with a 56-20 preferred prime minister lead for Kevin Rudd that marks little shift from the previous time the question was asked in late November. Also featured are questions on expectations of the year ahead economically and for the Barack Obama presidency. Most interestingly, respondents were also asked to name their favourite prime minister since World War II, which produced a win for John Howard on 28 per cent. This is largely because those supporting Liberals (45 per cent of the total) showed no interest for contenders other than Howard and Bob Menzies (11 per cent), whereas the Labor loyalist vote was split between Kevin Rudd (20 per cent), Bob Hawke (12 per cent), Gough Whitlam (9 per cent) and Paul Keating (8 per cent).
• Former Tasmanian Tourism Minister Paula Wreidt has retired from politics, creating a vacancy in the electorate of Franklin that will be filled by a countback on February 2. This provides a clear entry to parliament for Daniel Hulme, the only remaining unelected Labor candidate from the 2006 election. My election guide entry tells me Hulme was an “Australian Taxation Office worker and former Young Labor president described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a ‘right-wing pro-development campaigner’”. Hulme was the last man standing after Paul Lennon’s exit in the middle of last year resulted in the election of Ross Butler – who, according to Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics, has raised eyebrows with his performance. If Hulme declines to nominate, or if any further Labor vacancies arise in Franklin before the next election, we might see the unprecedented activation of the clause which would allow Labor to initiate a by-election rather than have the seat go to another party. Still more from Peter Tucker.
• More casual vacancy news: the last remaining Australian Democrats MP, South Australia’s Sandra Kanck, has been replaced following her retirement from her upper house seat by David Winderlich. More from Andrew Bartlett.
• The NSW Nationals have intriguingly announced they will preselect a candidate for a yet-to-be-determined winnable seat at the 2011 state election by conducting an American-style primary, open to all voters enrolled in the electorate. Peter van Onselen notes in The Australian that “parties in countries such as Britain and Italy have increasingly embraced primary contests, more often than not with electoral success to follow”. The most likely electorates for the trial are said to be Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, each traditionally Nationals seats currently held by independents.
• Counting continues in South Australia’s Frome by-election, on which I have written an overview in today’s Crikey. Read about and comment on the progress of the count in the post below.
[would the real Obama please stand up, it is amazing.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24942170-5006301,00.html%5D
hahaha
[But he said he would not like to become an official body-double for Obama.
“I don’t want to get shot,” he said. ]
“It is one of the several US anthems. The melody is the same as “God Save the Queen”. The lyrics were written early in the 19th century and there is some confusion as to whether athe lyricist knew the tune was the British royal anthem”
Given th timing in early 19 th century , it would be a long bow to think it was a
co insidence…th same melodies Also surprised it still has currency , like people usualy like uniqueness of there anthem
We do not elect Rupert but he runs this country- 70 percent of all newspaper coverage with a monopoly of newspaper coverage in Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland. His company has significant ownership elsewhere. Do as i say or else.
Time we had more diversity in the media, but when?
Marky Marky
“Ron the problem about wage restraint, wage cuts and wage reductions is that it is fueling the economic problems. The less money in the economy the less hope their is for the economic crisis to be reversed”
Well marky marky , us centrist Keynes type believers reckon pump primin is always th answer in downturns , and if you need to go in deficit its no big deal , get th infrasrastucture etc spending going and “create” to make up for slack in private sector investments then …seeing in a full econamic cycle surplus’s should be attainable in growth periods
Marky, i never read the rag, i cancelled out during the election when they assassinated Nicole Corne’s charactor casting her as a brainless bimbo, i’ve got a deal going with the bloke next door, he gives me the letters to the editor page and cryptic crosswords after he’s read it and i’ll provide coffee and biccies, now and again i’ll send over some pea and ham soup or meatloaf etc, i do a bit of bulk cooking occasionally, i never did learn to cook for two so eldest daughters family round the corner gets a respite from cooking as well.
As an incentive not to post drunk?
That was in reply to Albert Ross at 350.
Marky, i do buy the sunday mail, my good pal is the head crime reporter there, i’ve known him since he was a cub reporter 30 years ago so i have to stay loyal to him, besides the tv book is useful.
Good to see Judith, i encourage people to not buy it, it only encourages him and increases his strength.
Ron, this is all before recorded music. My memory was that the lyrics were written to a piece of German music which turned out to be the same music the British knew as God Save the King. There were no national anthems in those days, no visiting international dignitaries, no international sport, no recorded music, lots of hymn music floating around that new lyrics could be written for and no lawyers enforcing copyright on sheet music. I don’t think it’s a long bow to claim coincidence.
But a music historian would know better. My quick hunt around the web produced a variety of answers.
Antony , thanks for that info , and assume many attempts hav been made over th years to see why th lyricist picked that particular German tune
Also imagine th first time , British and US dignatories were at a ceremony unknowing of th same tune for both anthems , there may hav been some unease , or even red faces
Jeez Fulvio I am a tee-totaller.
However, Special Minister of State John Faulkner last night defended the special “top-up” payments.
He said: “Approval of personal staff salaries above the band is a mechanism available to Governments and Oppositions … and should be used in exceptional circumstances.”
that sounds quite a logicol and reasonable statement reely , but its still incorect
.
“Jeez Fulvio I am a tee-totaller.”
well I believe you….sort of
Ron, I honestly enjoy your contributions but I kindly suggest that you install a spell-checker add-on to your browser.
I was just trying to suggest an answer your question Albert, not make a value judgment of your excellent posts!!
While I agree it can be frustrating not to be able to correct obvious grammatical/spelling errors, it does prevent the more devious amongst us from changing the meaning or context of what has previously been said, in a moment of madness or otherwise.
It also prevents a later post appearing irrelevant or nonsensical due to the editing of the post it is responding to.
Ultimately, the rules probably amount to 1, not posting anything you might later regret, 2. not posting after drinking, and 3. using a spell checker or dictionary.
Unless of course you are Ron, in which case rule 3 does not apply.
Just kidding Ron.
“2. not posting after drinking”
this is th rule I may be flaunting…..and naughtily
g’night everyone, this little rubber ducky’s got a busy day coming up, cya in the morning.
Well at least we may finally have an answer for Ron’s consistently barely-indecipherable postings!
Hillary Clinton has just been confirmed by the Senate at 94-2 as the SOS.
Go, Hill go and save the Obama Admin from falling flat on its face on FA.
About “God Save the Queen” tune. i can understand the Royals of Europe using the tune, as they are all come from the same inter-breeding cesspool and genepool.
But why sang this tune yesterday, at such an important occasion. Something that has linked back to the former colonial yoke. What about something more stirring and American like:
“With God on Our Side”
[Oh my name it is nothin’
My age it means less
The country I come from
Is called the Midwest
I’s taught and brought up there
The laws to abide
And that land that I live in
Has God on its side.]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qzsTdRTV90
Yes, there are laws to abide even with God on your side.
Entirely a matter of self defence. As my age has increased my tolerance for alcohol has decreased and it’s now at the point where if I have a couple of beers or have wine with dinner I feel totally RS the next day. If anybody has a work around for this TELL ME!
Martin Hamilton Smith has come up with a new pie in the sky idea, as if he could pull this off plus needing a 7% swing against labor.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24946750-5006301,00.html
Finns
[Hillary Clinton has just been confirmed by the Senate at 94-2 as the SOS.]
I really think you should go see a doctor regarding your Hilary itch,maybe there is virtual calamine lotion available.
You really cant stop it can you,even if you wanted to 🙂
[The markets dont think Obi can walk on water. On his day, Dow Jones went down 332 pts, a whopping 4% to 7949.09 and NASDAQ by 5.8%. dont cry for me my superannuation.]
When are you going to comment on today’s market results Finn?
Maybe they do think Obi can walk on water.
I know you have said that you really hope Obama does well but, in many of your comments on this I can’t help feeling there’s a deep down desire on your part to see Obama crash and burn.
Finnigan,
The point about “With God on Our Side” and the song and melody from which it may have derived from “The Patriot Game” are both ironic and questioning in sentiment. Not the average American’s long suit.
Does anyone else feel as I do about this heading in the OZ?
“Swan admits plan to prop up business”
The word “admit” to me has guilt overtones. You admit a wrong doing to police or to your parents. “Ok, I admit I have hidden this plan from you and you’ve found me out.”
Given that Tanner had already disclosed the idea, surely a better word would have been “confirmed”. A more positive, stronger image is portrayed. Then again we are talking about the OZ.
Sky Noos likes to use “admit” as well.
Caroline Kennedy bails out of New York senate race.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/22/nyregion/22caroline.html?_r=1
#375 GB,
How many times must a man posts,
before they really get it,
yes n’ how many times that “he is not a messiah, just a naughty boy”,
and a naughty boy requires constantly watch and spanking.
The answer my friend (amigo?), is passing in the wind,
The answer is passing in the wind.
#374, Gus, no no, yes yes. i do need a bit of the Obi oiliness to ease my itch.
i heard somewhere that there could be legal challenge to the legitimacy of Obi as a POTUS because the Chief Justice John Roberts has stuffed up the oath of office. A conservative conspiracy?
Roberts:”I Barack Hussein Obama”
Obama: “I Barack”
Roberts: “do solemnly swear.”
Obama: “I, Barack Hussein Obama, do solemnly swear”
Roberts: “That I will execute the office of president to the United States faithfully…
Obama: “that I will execute…”
Roberts: “faithfully execute the office of president of the United States…”
Obama: “The office of president of the United States faithfully…”
Robert: “and will, to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”
Obama: “and will, to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”
Roberts: “So help you God?”
Obama: “So help me God.”
[Several constitutional lawyers said President Barack Obama should, just to be safe, retake the oath of office that Chief Justice John Roberts flubbed.]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2168608/posts
He already retook the oath
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/obama-retakes-oath-of-office-20090122-7nab.html
Gary since when has the OZ been careful about using a proper headline when theres a more negative one to labor that can be installed? c’mon, cant you remember before the election, Shanahans breathless headline that Howard was catching up on Rudd–there was a 1% movement in the polls.
Newspoll got it wrong in 07. On election day in 07, there was only a 1.5% difference between Labor and the Coalition on the primary vote. So if Labor was dead even with the Coalition on the primary, then the Coalition would have retained most of their Queensland electorates and then WA would have saved them.
Temporary Tax cuts:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24947985-2702,00.html
I hope the plan is to double the tax free threshold for 1 year, back dated to January 1st.
[Frankly, the best option is Sartor]
Frankly my dear, are you serious!!!!
[As for the next two years, the only person faintly capable of managing NSW out of crisis before the next election is Frank Sartor, the former minister exiled by Rees last year.]
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/frankly-sartors-the-best-option/2009/01/21/1232471392453.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
I was just going to puke over the writer of this article, until I saw it was La Divine. It’s alright then, she was just trying to help the ALP to win the next election. She’s kosha.
Phew, it got me worried for a moment. Frank Sartor? What’s next, Tony “People Skill” Abbott for PM?
[So if Labor was dead even with the Coalition on the primary, then the Coalition would have retained most of their Queensland electorates and then WA would have saved them.]
There’s an old crude saying, which I won’t fully say here, that covers this type of argument – If my aunty had ….. she’d be my uncle.
It really is a useless exercise.
Now here is a case highlighting the opposition’s tactic of finding fault no matter what action the government takes.
When Rudd proposed taking Japan to the high court over whaling the Libs cried that this shouldn’t be done. Now that Rudd is saying diplomacy first we get this response.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24948189-5001028,00.html
Damned if you do and damned if you don’t. They are a joke.
Looks like “The Snails” holiday push for an early Qld election has been for nought.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24947582-952,00.html
Greg Hunt is getting his knickers in a knot over the McArthur River Mine, maybe he needs to be reminded that it was Ian Campbell who origanally approved the mine.
It was Campbell’s decision that was succesfully appealed in the Federal Court.
Or maybe it was John Howard’s idea.
PM intervenes in McArthur River dispute
“JOHN HOWARD: I want this project to go ahead, or the expansion of it to go ahead because it will be very good for the Territory and very good for the Country.”
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2006/s1755750.htm
Hunt is a dill. 😛
Gary
Wait for the Snail headline,
“Bligh backflips on early election due to Global Financial Swindle and Job Losses.” 😉
GB 387
I suppose the Oz will say that Bligh “has admitted she will wait out her full term, and is not prepared to face the people before then”.
389 & 390 – Both are real possibilities.
In the absence of Boerwar, I need to keep his spirit alive.
More good news for the Pine Bark Beetles. The Antarctica is warming after all. They have another habitat to infest. That 5% Rudd/ Wong CO2 reduction will make all the difference.
[ANTARCTICA is now confirmed to be melting and not bucking the global warming trend as previously thought.
US researchers have pored over data from satellites and weather stations in the biggest ever study of the frozen continent’s climate and found it’s warming after all.]
But it’s not all good news for the Beetles. They might need to shift inland by the end of the century. Still, a seaside house will be cheap until it’s underwater.
[Scientists now estimate the melting of Antarctica’s massive ice sheets will cause the world’s sea levels to rise by one to two metres by the end of the century.
That’s bad news if you live near the Australian coast,” Professor Brook said.
“In some areas where you’ve currently got housing, you’d probably have to abandon those areas.”
He said the sea would penetrate up to 1km inland in flat areas like South Australia’s lower lakes.
Large areas which don’t see flooding now would get flooded by king tides.
House prices for coastal areas would probably drop, Professor Brook said. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24946666-11949,00.html
Simon Jackman on the retaken oath.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=1087
ruawake
Hunt is a dill.
so whats new lol.
Judith
Hunt is lucky that parliament is not sitting, it was John Howard who pressured Campbell to approve McArthur River in haste.
This approval was flawed as the Federal Court found. Garrett has to fix a Liberal Party stuff up.
This all comes back to ministerial responsibility, just ’cause the PM says “I want this project approved…” Does not mean OK – rubber stamp boss.
I guess that is what hapens when you give a “Commercial Property Consultant” the environment gig.
At least Garrett has a law degree and may understand the legal ramifications of his office and the approval process?
GB – regardless what you or I think of the CM (which I suspect is something we can agree on) the story of the early Qld election was not a beat up.
There were strong rumours that she would go in Feb/March.
However, if she has been reported correctly (it was the CM again after all) it doesn’t give her much wriggle room.
[the story of the early Qld election was not a beat up.]
Winston
The only people saying there would be an early election were the courier mail and ABC 612’s Madonna King (wife of the CM editor).
How many times does Anna Bligh have to say she will run full term?
Rua, I don’t base my opinions on the Courier Mail or Madonna King.
OK Winston
Please tell us what “strong rumours” you are aware of ??? Or is that secret squirrel stuff???.
Rua, I’m just sharing a bit of information.
The story is that the Qld economy is not looking good, with a significant downturn in the mining sector. We’ve already had the news of BHP cuts – well that’s what the Qld mining companies are facing. It means that the Budget will be pretty nasty.
And with the opposition looking so hopeless, an early election was a serious option.
Now it sounds a bit too much like WA to me, so maybe they came to their senses.