The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.
UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd’s approval is down seven points to 63 per cent; Turnbull’s is down two to 45 per cent, his weakest result to date.
Elsewhere:
• Essential Research’s weekly survey has produced a status quo 59-41 result, along with a 56-20 preferred prime minister lead for Kevin Rudd that marks little shift from the previous time the question was asked in late November. Also featured are questions on expectations of the year ahead economically and for the Barack Obama presidency. Most interestingly, respondents were also asked to name their favourite prime minister since World War II, which produced a win for John Howard on 28 per cent. This is largely because those supporting Liberals (45 per cent of the total) showed no interest for contenders other than Howard and Bob Menzies (11 per cent), whereas the Labor loyalist vote was split between Kevin Rudd (20 per cent), Bob Hawke (12 per cent), Gough Whitlam (9 per cent) and Paul Keating (8 per cent).
• Former Tasmanian Tourism Minister Paula Wreidt has retired from politics, creating a vacancy in the electorate of Franklin that will be filled by a countback on February 2. This provides a clear entry to parliament for Daniel Hulme, the only remaining unelected Labor candidate from the 2006 election. My election guide entry tells me Hulme was an “Australian Taxation Office worker and former Young Labor president described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a ‘right-wing pro-development campaigner’”. Hulme was the last man standing after Paul Lennon’s exit in the middle of last year resulted in the election of Ross Butler – who, according to Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics, has raised eyebrows with his performance. If Hulme declines to nominate, or if any further Labor vacancies arise in Franklin before the next election, we might see the unprecedented activation of the clause which would allow Labor to initiate a by-election rather than have the seat go to another party. Still more from Peter Tucker.
• More casual vacancy news: the last remaining Australian Democrats MP, South Australia’s Sandra Kanck, has been replaced following her retirement from her upper house seat by David Winderlich. More from Andrew Bartlett.
• The NSW Nationals have intriguingly announced they will preselect a candidate for a yet-to-be-determined winnable seat at the 2011 state election by conducting an American-style primary, open to all voters enrolled in the electorate. Peter van Onselen notes in The Australian that “parties in countries such as Britain and Italy have increasingly embraced primary contests, more often than not with electoral success to follow”. The most likely electorates for the trial are said to be Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, each traditionally Nationals seats currently held by independents.
• Counting continues in South Australia’s Frome by-election, on which I have written an overview in today’s Crikey. Read about and comment on the progress of the count in the post below.
Well at least it’s not a record low for Rudd… had a few of these last year.
Ze narrowing?
statistical noise?
end of the honeymoon?
MOE?
Mo’s bar?
(personally I go for Mo’s)
“In the wake of Access Economics’ forecast yesterday that the federal budget was “buggered” (please link to ryan yarn in monday’s paper), Mr Turnbull said a budget deficit should be a last resort.”
HAHAHA, whoops, perhaps they were so excited to publish it they forgot to properly edit it! At least they call it for what it is, a yarn, and a misquoted taken out of context yarn at that.
And now buggered has been correctly linked.
They’ve fixed that one pretty quick, Bob.
diog
Posted Monday, January 19, 2009 at 9:14 pm
“Ron I know you can’t divorce a person from their politics but if you could, GWB would probably be quite fun to be around. He’s witty and quite charming in a buffoonish sort of way …….so I’m not indiscriminately magnanimous.”
Diog (later)
“I just find Bush and Abbott likeable. Perhaps I need therapy”
diog , i wasn’t with you at all ….until those last 4 words “Perhaps I need therapy”
You were coming along quite well actualy , but GWB likability is a big relapse……..into a sort of intelectualism fashionable fairness , but don’t let those fairy floss intelectuals cloud your intelegentsia logics And thanks for your info on that WW2 resistanse fighter I reely admire people like that , and so how come Howard gets a medal of freeedom & yet i asume your guy didn’t
So back to the same 54-46 2PP we last saw on 26 October 2008. There’s no doubt the last Newspoll was a standout rogue and this one seems to be a better fit with the basic scheme of things.
Something for a Tory to cheer about an 8 point deficit instead of an 18 point deficit, each are horrible…. 🙁
20% for Rudd the greatest labor prime minister since WW2 youch
The last seven Newspolls have gone like this:
20-Sep-08: 55: 45
11-Oct-08: 55: 45
26-Oct-08: 54: 46
09-Nov-08: 55: 45
23-Nov-08: 55: 45
07-Dec-08: 59: 41
19-Jan-09: 54: 46
Ron,
I suspect GWB would be a much better bloke to have a beer with than most political leaders … which probably sums up his problem as a leader.
steve,
Agree with your summation – in this early stage of the economic downturn, Rudd is effortlessly holding Turnbull at bay.
20% for Rudd is bull butter and is only because people can recognise his name as he is PM now.
Half those other PMs have done more to change Australia than Rudd has in only 1 year as PM…
further to that b’uggered’ story , and Socrates earlier coment of media exagerations , confidense is a fickle thingy and is vital with Govt pump primin to provide stimuli and reduce GFC afects ….GFC will hurt us , we’ll get a deficit , higher unemployment , a tech recesion etc , but we don’t want silly media talking econamy potentialy don worser than what it will be as that can be self creating also into worse tech recession As for depression it is not going to happen here for numerous reasons , but some countrys may end up on edges there
abit of responsibility wuldn’t hurt and critisise indiv policys directon , but responsobility is not an MSN word known , perhaps Malcolm could try that aproach & be suportative on Keynesan approach and difer in detail , but not sure he ralizes that wuld be quite politcaly wise , let alone econamicly so and that his cureent bagging is not confidense wise (longterm) helpful to oz
I’m surprised that Ben Chifley didn’t make it to towards the top of the “favourite PM since WW2” list. I think this is partly because not many people under the age of 70 have heard of him (except for politics geeks like us), and also because Australians don’t really know much about the history of our Prime Ministers. This might be a good thing and a bad thing. At least we don’t turn our leaders into canonised heroes like the Americans do. I can’t ever imagine Bob Menzies on the obverse of our 5-cent piece, or Andrew Fisher on the $20 note, or a public holiday devoted to the birthday of John Curtin.
I’d love to see the results of a “least favourite PM” poll. I nominate Billy Hughes, by a very very long margin, with Stanley Bruce and John Howard neck-and-neck a distant second.
Catatonia,
Keating would run hot in a “least favourite PM” poll. He created a whole generation of rusted-on Liberals – myself included.
Ron,
Unfortunately Bonhoffer was killed by the Nazis a month before the end of the war.
Dyno
#11
“Ron, I suspect GWB would be a much better bloke to have a beer with than most political leaders … which probably sums up his problem as a leader.”
Dyno , i’d be a better person that GWB for you to hav a beer with , especialy if you were shouting I mean then i’d almost agree with everting you said
now if you took all th Labor Premiers incl Carpenter ex WA Premier , if i was having to pay 50/50 then i’d only be intersted in a beer with Beattie (and Anna) , and Bracks , supose Brumby if quality beer is on offer to make up for his humour lacking ….other Labor Premiers can drink by themselves if I’ve gotta pay for my drinks I feel its purely a co-insidense that I also think Bracks Beatie Anna Brumby etc th best Premiers as likability and performanse different
Turnbull is making reasonable progress given the circumstances. Problem is when he doesn’t produce the magic wand and magic away the weight of the past 12 years the polarising, dry liberal faction will begin to get impatient, either ousting him or leading to him saying some ultra-conservative things to placate them, and upsetting the electorate in the process. Someone put the sod out of his misery, if anyone deserves to have to suffer the pains of first term opposition it is Abbott, shove him in the grinder for three years. Turnbull can have another go in a more favourable climate like Peacock and Howard both go to.
And Canatonia, I agree whole heartedly, Hughes the worst of the worst, Howard and Bruce can fight for second.
Howard would top the least favoured PM as well, lets say with 72%
Dyno
Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2009 at 12:07 am | Permalink
“Ron, Unfortunately Bonhoffer was killed by the Nazis a month before the end of the war.”
Just saw that post Dyno , sorry to hear that Obviously a brave man and wars produce those wonderfuls fighting for a reel cause , and yet one sees some Dictators around th World and wonder at them shake me head and amazed at diferences in th quality of diferent men
Britain has announced a new bank bailout scheme today.
[Speaking at the prime minister’s 10 Downing Street residence in London, Mr. Brown placed the blame for the financial crisis on “irresponsible lending” by the banks and said institutions that took advantage of the new measures would have to sign a legally binding agreement with the government to provide more credit to consumers and businesses.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/business/worldbusiness/20ukbanks.html?_r=1
Ron and Judith
Sorry you were quite right – I saw the “buggered” quote on the news by Richardson. Anyway as Ron said the rest of his comments were still reasonable – he did not imply any criticism of current government policy. I also agree on the importance of language and confidence – widespread optimisim and pessimism can both be self fulfilling. People shoudl understand that this shoudl pass more quickly in Australia, as the underlying debt problem is noting like the US. We have to get things moving again.
As for this poll; its steady as she goes, why would there be any change on recent events?
“the underlying debt problem”
you ar quite right Socrates , our debt is manageable , whilst US’s is quite worrying Whilst chinese won’t desert th US $ in securities buyng , they do face intersting choises as well now in levels of investments & how , given there projected contracton of available excess funds to invest and where do you feel
Catatonia, I was thinking along the same lines but was shot down by Possum. Most people have zero idea who people besides Keating, Howard and Rudd are.
In international news, El Salvador is going to the polls this weekend and it’s predicted they may become the latest Latin American country to make a leftward turn.
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/01/16/el.salvador.election/index.html
This should not be understated as El Salvador has traditionally been a US economic outpost in Latin America.
Dynos @ 16
Keating was bad (with some good points), though I haven’t heard anyone bad-mouth Keating for several years now. Like I alluded to in @15, political memories fade. I think the 2007 election result is testament to this. In 1998, 2001 and 2004 memories of Keating, and the “recession we had to have”, and the 17% interest rates, the perceived pandering to minority interests, and the cosying up to South East Asian dictators such as Suharto, would probably still have been stronger. So I don’t think Keating would rate as high in a hypothetical “worst PM” poll now as he would 5 years ago.
Vera @ 20
John Howard probably would top the “worst PM ever” poll, but only because he’s so fresh in everyone’s memory. Give it another couple of generations and all his bad points would fade from people’s minds and he’ll be probably be remembered, if he is remembered at all, as just another plodding, do-bugger-all conservative PM in the mould of Malcolm Fraser or Bob Menzies who got Australia involved in some war or other.
OZ
“Catatonia, I was thinking along the same lines but was shot down by Possum.”
oz , don’t let that marsupial up there in a tree put you off
“respondents aged 18 – 24 were more likely to rate Gough Whitlam as the best
as the best Australian Prime Minister (17%)”
So th young people voted our Gough at 17% , and overall that dropped to 9%
Then “Respondents in the 25 – 34 year age group were more likely to rate Kevin Rudd as the best Australian Prime Minister (34%)” & overall that dropped to 20%
So enemy marsupial must hav fallen off his branch there
Also “People aged 50 years and over were more likely to prefer Robert Menzies (19%)” , which overall dropped to 11%…which as i sugested earlier is a demograpgic problam i feel libs hav
WILLIAM , you may like to tell essential Research that my post said 55% went for Labor PM’s and 45% to Lib PM’s per there own chart but at bottom they say:
“56% of respondents nominated a Labor Prime Minister compared to 44% who nominated a Liberal.” which is incorect , and perhaps they may not appreciate somone of my eloquense pointing out there maths errors
I’m extremely proud of the people in my age bracket. University age radicals are what make this country what it is.
Just saw Possum’s article on the same subject of the Best PM Since WW2 poll. I’m surprised that Gough was more popular among people aged 18 to 24. This shoots my “political memories fade” theory a little bit out of the water. Not right out of the water, but enough to get a few feathers dry.
The 18-to-24 cohort was born in January 1985 at the latest – 9 years and 2 months after Gough’s dismissal. Therefore, the 17% of this age cohort who picked Whitlam as their favourite PM must have gotten their information which caused them to like Gough from some source. Perhaps their parents mentioned E.G. with adulation over dinner a few times, or maybe they heard about him on Triple J, or possibly some progressive-minded school teachers and university faculty members. Who knows?
Catatonia, you might be interested to know that I sent the following email to Essential Media two months ago, shortly after they had asked a question on perceptions of Howard:
[I was fascinated by the question on John Howard in the latest survey. It occurs to me that it would be equally interesting if you asked about earlier PMs as well – no less so if respondents were too young to properly remember them. I remember a few years ago high school students were asked to nominate the Australian they most respected, and Gough Whitlam was either number one or very close to it. These are people who could tell you nothing at all about Khemlani, Morosi, Gair or the rest, but the impression of Gough as a noble crusader who was done over by powerful interests has clearly taken root in a way that will colour perceptions of Australian history for decades if not centuries to come. In his particular case, I would love to see a breakdown of attitudes by age group. Certainly my readership would be fascinated to see the results from this kind of question, for whatever that’s worth.]
“Certainly my readership would be fascinated to see the results from this kind of question, for whatever that’s worth.”
I’d be fascinated to see them corect there maths per my #27 , seeing they obviously took up your suggeston to poll by PM’s
you know that us libs will eventually beat you, ha ha ha ha
hello glen, my fellow twaveller 🙂
Ron, it’s obviously to do with rounding – we’re adding up results that have been rounded to full percentage points, whereas they have raw figures to go off.
and then you will win again, you howwible socialist, dang, and then we shall win, and then you shall, OOOhh the endless Cycle of life!
William i can see what you’re saying , however its rather inconsistent to show rounded % figures per PM , that show Labor PM’s at 55% suport and then via rounding say “56% suported Labor PM’s”
Essential could hav rounded by PM first , so that adds equal….or show PM’s by decimal , but they seem to hav criss crossed methodoloogys to what I’d hav done , but then i’m not Essential
seeing rounding affects even Newspolls % figures both Nationaly and by State ….like th curent Newspolls of 54/46 may be anywhere from 43.6% to 54.4% …and then th MOE
corecton , from 53.6% to 54.4% …0.8% diferential (not 43.6% to 54.4%)
No 28
Oh please. University radicals have barely even set foot in the real world, let alone had a chance to shape it. After all, those same radicals are advocating for the imposition of compulsory taxes on students to subsidise their political escapades!
Another Liberal National conspiracy theory being developed for the Queensland campaign. What will they think of next?
[A senior Labor Government source said the LNP decision to host the presentation, at the beginning of an election year, was surprising.
“This is the sort of kooky LNP Heiner conspiracy theory stuff we have become used to,” the source said. “He (D’Arcy) was convicted by a jury and confirmed on appeal.
“The LNP kooks are now meeting to discuss ways how to get him off.”
While the D’Arcys are banned from talking to the media under the terms of his parole, a supporters’ group website last year claimed that D’Arcy was set up by Labor colleagues, the media and police, and then let down by a fallible justice system.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24935529-5006786,00.html
“These are people who could tell you nothing at all about Khemlani, Morosi, Gair or the rest”
The inconvenient truth …
[The inconvenient truth …]
Probably the same people who could tell you nothing about siev X, Children overboard, Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, Australian Wheat Board, workchoices, Reith, Andrews, Ruddoch or the rest.
Yes Steve @ 41,
Give me Khemlani,Morosi,Gair any day compared to those other utterly corrupt and contemptuous Sieve X, Children overboard etc.
steve @ 10,
That poll on Dec 7 may show what a Government can do with a $1000 handout at Xmas. Already the punters are asking, “What have you done for me lately?”
Apart from that quirk, the trend shows the electorate actively standing still.
#38
I think you missed the sarcasm.
ummm Steve, you forgot their last nasty, Haneef.
[Probably the same people who could tell you nothing about siev X, Children overboard, Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, Australian Wheat Board, workchoices, Reith, Andrews, Ruddoch or the rest.]
I think that’s a pretty strong misrepresentation. Young Australians are not idiots and certainly have not be under represented in rallies and campaigns against WorkChoices, the Iraq war and for human rights in recent years.
In two days time, Whitlam passes Frank Forde to become the longest-lived Australian PM ever
“Probably the same people who could tell you nothing about siev X, Children overboard, Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, Australian Wheat Board, workchoices, Reith, Andrews, Ruddoch or the rest.”
Indeed Steve, will any of us ever be TOLD the full truth on those topics. Some powerful people went to a lot of trouble at the time to prevent those in the know from speaking. As much as I looked forward to 2005 for hte end of the 30 year rule to see the truth about east Timor, I suspect we’ll have to wait till 2035 for the truth about Howard, ugly as I expect it to be.
Here is an in-depth misunderstanding of the Newspoll from the ABC, where clearly Antony Green needs to do some teaching of the reporters about MOE and outliers:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/20/2469640.htm
#43, [“What have you done for me lately?”]
Amigo GG, guess what? Heard this morning Gerry Harvey of Harvey Norman whinging already that the $10B handouts was for December, it has passed quickly and not doing anything for january. You have to hand it to good old Gerry, the bastion of capitalism and free market.
Dont also forget, Gerry also pioneered the “buy now, no interest for 2 years and pay later with 28% interest if you miss a payment”, supported by GE Money.