The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.
UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd’s approval is down seven points to 63 per cent; Turnbull’s is down two to 45 per cent, his weakest result to date.
Elsewhere:
• Essential Research’s weekly survey has produced a status quo 59-41 result, along with a 56-20 preferred prime minister lead for Kevin Rudd that marks little shift from the previous time the question was asked in late November. Also featured are questions on expectations of the year ahead economically and for the Barack Obama presidency. Most interestingly, respondents were also asked to name their favourite prime minister since World War II, which produced a win for John Howard on 28 per cent. This is largely because those supporting Liberals (45 per cent of the total) showed no interest for contenders other than Howard and Bob Menzies (11 per cent), whereas the Labor loyalist vote was split between Kevin Rudd (20 per cent), Bob Hawke (12 per cent), Gough Whitlam (9 per cent) and Paul Keating (8 per cent).
• Former Tasmanian Tourism Minister Paula Wreidt has retired from politics, creating a vacancy in the electorate of Franklin that will be filled by a countback on February 2. This provides a clear entry to parliament for Daniel Hulme, the only remaining unelected Labor candidate from the 2006 election. My election guide entry tells me Hulme was an “Australian Taxation Office worker and former Young Labor president described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a ‘right-wing pro-development campaigner’”. Hulme was the last man standing after Paul Lennon’s exit in the middle of last year resulted in the election of Ross Butler – who, according to Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics, has raised eyebrows with his performance. If Hulme declines to nominate, or if any further Labor vacancies arise in Franklin before the next election, we might see the unprecedented activation of the clause which would allow Labor to initiate a by-election rather than have the seat go to another party. Still more from Peter Tucker.
• More casual vacancy news: the last remaining Australian Democrats MP, South Australia’s Sandra Kanck, has been replaced following her retirement from her upper house seat by David Winderlich. More from Andrew Bartlett.
• The NSW Nationals have intriguingly announced they will preselect a candidate for a yet-to-be-determined winnable seat at the 2011 state election by conducting an American-style primary, open to all voters enrolled in the electorate. Peter van Onselen notes in The Australian that “parties in countries such as Britain and Italy have increasingly embraced primary contests, more often than not with electoral success to follow”. The most likely electorates for the trial are said to be Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, each traditionally Nationals seats currently held by independents.
• Counting continues in South Australia’s Frome by-election, on which I have written an overview in today’s Crikey. Read about and comment on the progress of the count in the post below.
Winston
Anna Bligh has said on at least 6 occasions that she will run full term. The latest today.
The LNP are hopeless they will be just as hopeless in Sept. The budget will be a plus for Bligh.
You are not sharing info, just repeating rumours. Labor was always and will go to the polls in sept.
Winston
“Rua, I’m just sharing a bit of information.
The story is that the Qld economy is not looking good, with a significant downturn in the mining sector. We’ve already had the news of BHP cuts – well that’s what the Qld mining companies are facing. It means that the Budget will be pretty nasty.
And with the opposition looking so hopeless, an early election was a serious option.”
Hav you since heard option is now killed , or has no further info has come to you
One thingy about any Politcan thinking of calling an early electon , is they do not say they’re thinking about it They instead say they ar not thinking about it , until after they hav had a think about it and decided , and even then they ar still thinking about it ……..and why wuldn’t Anna think about it still , at th moment she is guaranted of 4 more years ( getting th “excuse” is usualy th problam)
Has anybody had a look at the A-PAC channel???
Anybody think it’s any good??
There are rumours that the ABC will set up their own politics channel too and that the pay-tv groups will provide A-PAC to digital TV viewers…
See we also hav Wall Street cowboys , this is th story of Soust a CEO of a biotech crowd on our free market ASX , but only getting $245,000 a year so know where near enough to afford a decent holiday But our own aussie cowboy Soust looks at his bonus scheme and sees no greed options , or did he Yep he did , Mr Soust then spends $2200 worth of th Companys in last 25 minutes of trading on 31st December and whaco share price jumps form 2 cents to 2.5 cents……and 2.5 cents a share under his bonus scheme that he probabley influened parameters anyway triggers a Soust bonus of $34,500
Am tinking to myself , how did he later sit thru Remuneraton committees Oking it and later Board meeting aproving it …..and ASIC asked same questons and found he was there but silent , andd so Soust stoory ends at ASIC actions
but story not should end there …shame these cowboys in publicity so deter greedy others and how come Board bad governanse is no penalty , and how else you get productive managrs & private enterprise unless charlotans pay a reel price , and supose Soust disappears as another story in a week forgot and so lessons also forgotton
.
Glen , who but I will ask you like where is this channel and which buttons hit
looks like Joyce’s move to the lower house would cause a bun fight for his senate spot between the Nats and the Libs and the OZ is still pushing the story Bligh will call the election next month.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24950563-2702,00.html
Listening to ABC Radio on the way to work I just heard a prime bit of Turnbull falsehood. When asked what to do about the GFC he said tax cuts because “evidence from around the world” was that they gave people confidence to spend and were not just saved.
Quote that evidence! This is not necessarily true, and depends on how high tax rates were, and who gets the cuts. The Bush tax cuts that went to the wealthy did not do much for the US. The only way that consumption went up and savings down was a perverse one – as the poor got squeezed their savings fell. Someone please challenge Turnbull on this drivel.
The overall eveidence is that government spending stimulates activity more than tax cuts. I’d challenge Turnbull to prove otherwise.
That’s exactly what I was thinking about Joyce’s move to the House. It’s got the very real possibility of The Nationals reducing their numbers in the Senate by 1. They’ll gain one through Victoria… but possibly lose 2 (1 in Queensland and 1 in NSW).
Judith,
“Mr Springborg, who has pointed to the LNP as a model for coalition unity, declined to comment”.
Says it all, really.
If Joyce does get elected to Fed Parliament, will he be a National or a LNP member?
As a Qlder he must be a LNP which makes him half Lib and half National, that then becomes a conflict of interest for him to lead the Nationals. What a woven mess this is becoming.
We also now see that a Liberal wants the Upper House seat that Joyce is vacating. I thought they are now all members of the LNP.
There is great unity in the LNP in QLD, so says the Borg.
This alone shows what a shambles the idea of the LNP is.
and this is because Howard put his finger in the pie by getting in Joyce’s ear, there seems to be no end of the damage he wants to inflict on the party he professes to love, maybe it’s revenge because in the end they wanted to unseat him.
It does look as the Section W.11, does come with a handy part ‘C’ escape clause.
(b) Amongst such sitting Senators, the order shall be as follows:-
(i) Senator the Hon. George Brandis;
(ii) Senator Barnaby Joyce
(iii) Senator the Hon. Brett Mason;
(iv) Senator Russell Trood.
(c) This clause is subject to any subsequent written agreement to the contrary signed for and on behalf of and with the authority of the Liberal National Party of Queensland, the Liberal Party of Australia and the National Party of Australia.
http://www.lnp.org.au/images/stories/PDFs/LNPConstitution080808.pdf
I just can’t understand why Barnaby would want to cause all these problems by moving from the Senate to the House. He might be Shadow Minister for Trade or something. Then he’s more susceptible to Party discipline and can’t spout off about any topic. It’s not as if he’ll miss out on being PM because of being in the Senate.And everyone can ignore him coz one vote in the HOR is irrelevant.
Have I missed something ❓
Put it this way, that other well known mavericky maverick Sarah Palin wouldn’t do it so why would Barnaby. 😀
I don’t think he was a merger fan in the first place. The dislike between Liberal and Queensland Nationals runs far deeper than rational thinking, Diogenes.
I’m just waiting for the formation of the “True Liberal Party” or the “Real Liberal Party”. It mustn’t be far away now.
In the age of economic globalisation voters are less likely to blame incumbent state govts for a struggling state economy or even a resultant tough state budget. As we see in NSW its the quality of govt services that govts are held accountable for, my impression is that Qld Labor is seen as doing OK on these.
with all of this infighting the Courier Mail is trying to push Bligh into an early election, she’d be mad if she did, this is heaven sent for her.
It will pay to keep an eye on “others” in Newspolls between now and the September election. A sharp upturn in “others” could give us an indication if there is a move on towards independents at the expense of the Liberal National Party. It was always going to be the risky side of the merger and this Joyce nonsense feeds into the likelihood.
The merger should have been done Federally first.
There is no reason to have 2 conservative parties in this day and age.
Speaking of Independents, a few minutes ago some bloke drove past with a rickety old trailer holding up a cheap billboard with “Stiller for Sandgate” scrawled across it. Had something about the need for Independents.
Everyone seems to be getting in on the early election act.
[There is no reason to have 2 conservative parties in this day and age.]
Yes, we should have the Liberal Party, the National Party, the Liberal National Party and the True Liberal Party.
How about just the Australian Conservative Party vs the ALP hey it works in the UK?
Glen, you’d lose a swag of inner metro seats where the inhabitants aren’t actually conservative, but anti-labour (in the old fashioned sense) and hence non-labor (in the modern sense).
Julie Bishop on ABC Brisbane radio seemed to be advocating more workchoices as the answer to the economic crisis.
Bull butter Possum, Australians are by and large a conservative people whether you like it or not…how did Rudd win in 2007 by moving to the far left?? No he went to the Right to win…the less bickering we have between the Libs and Nats give the people a clear choice between one group and the other mob…NZ have one conservative party and they won last year…the Brits have one and they will win in 2010 and Canada have one party and they’re in government too.
[
Has anybody had a look at the A-PAC channel???
]
I watched the inauguration (replay) on it, as well as a quick squiz every now and then. At the moment there is a lot of C-SPAN stuff which appears to be more informative than the other US channels (CNN, Fox, etc), though not as funny as Fox.
[
Anybody think it’s any good??
]
It’ll come into its own when it parliament is sitting. No more cutting off of transmission in the middle of a delayed question time (I may be projecting hope there). Plus we’ll get to see a few state parliaments in action (or lack thereof).
Thanks for the update Flaneur.
Glen – if you want to know which Coalition seats a Capital C branded Conservative party with a Capital C branded conservative political framework will lose, look no further than Coalition held seats that either voted yes, or very nearly voted yes in the Republic referendum.
If you reckon the country contains 18 million Eric Abetz’s running around the place, you’ll be on the wrong side of the chamber for eternity.
Do you honestly think the people that elect Bruce Scott actually have anything meaningfully in common with the people that elect Malcolm Turnbull?
Conservatives you reckon?
Waltz down the middle of Wentworth one day spouting anti-abortion, anti-gay, vacuous family values stuff and see how far you get.
Something else worth mentioning, the conservative fantasy of the Australian population being “just like them” is nothing but an enormous myth. If we go to page 23 of the Australian Election Study – it’s pretty clear that the Australian population is, on average, centrist and that they see the Coalition much further (on average) to the right of their own political beliefs.
The first two charts on this page are the two diagrams from page 23 of the survey.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/11/09/sunday-requestathon/
#424 You are going to have to be more specific about you mean in that context about ‘inner metro seats’. For instance, in Sydney, do you mean Wentworth, North Sydney, Bradfield, Warringah?
Possum
On that graph, I’m surprised that the voter’s see the Liberals as further to the right than the Nationals.
Charles,
North Sydney, Wentworth and Ryan upfront. Over the next decade/decade and a half, depending on the death rate of the elderly, some of those blue ribbon Victoria seats like Kooying and Higgins would be a marginal call. Actually, Melbourne would become a real problem. The Melbourne anti-labour forces only really had two things in common with their northern conservative cousins for the last 100 years. Their dislike of organised labour and, post WW2, their protectionist tendencies (after the NSW free traders died out).
The former is slowly becoming irrelevent (as is organised labour itself on the whole, YRAW not withstanding), and the latter is already meaningless for anyone not old enough to remember it.
That exposes a lot of raw cultural differences in the Liberal/Conservative movement now that the glue that has kept them together has slowly started to dissolve. Howard didn’t help by forcefully moving the Liberal Party into National Party territory. In the coastal seats – sure, it was a fair enough demographic fit.
But in the inland seats it’s going to be a nightmare, forcing the Libs to juggle two constituencies that have virtually nothing in common, but an awful lot to dislike about each other.
Dio, maybe some see the National Party’s agrarian socialism for what it is?
Possum im not saying the 18m Australians are as right wing as Eric Abetz but i will say they have more in common with most Liberal MPs than Julia Gillard…
The Conservative Party (UK) has like the Liberals many MPs with differing opinions on some issues putting some in the centre which isnt a bad thing you could hardly call David Cameron a right wing nut job he is a Conservative but he’s not far right by any stretch….but the people by and large want lower taxes and less government influence in their daily lives.
[Maybe some see the National Party’s agrarian socialism for what it is?]
You can be so nasty sometimes.
I saw that Virginia Tech had another tragedy today with a PhD student studying agrarian economics being decapitated in the cafe.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24951745-5006301,00.html
Glenn – the poms have the Liberal Democrats, which allows the small l Liberals to park their vote in a non Labour Party place, which then allows the Tories to move to the right – not really having to worry about that constituency.
But if the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist AND you had compulsory voting in the UK running with compulsory preferential, the Tories would arguably have the same problem at the moment that the Coalition has here.
Another question Glen – I’m fascinated by the Liberal Party line on Gillard. Do you really think that the wider public (meaning wider than the local Liberal Party) believes that Gillard is a left wing fanatic?
All of the (albeit sparse) polling so far shows she’s pretty popular.
There’s another myth that the Coalition needs to get a bit of self awareness over too – tax cuts. Taxes have been repeatedly cut since Hawke, which makes the so called coalition “strength” mostly one based on propaganda and political messaging than any real inherent truth.
But Howard’s GST weakened even the propaganda value of that line for a large chunk of the country. It’s not really something that the Coalition can rely on as an actual vote winner (although I’m sure they’ll continue to bang on about it and waste their breath regardless).
The other point is that people want “less government interference in their lives”. Again, a nice nebulous concept that crashes into the reality of public opinion when it comes down to actually suggesting which government services should be cut.
Food for though anyways.
Possum i hardly thing you could say David Cameron has moved the Tories further to the Right…the Tories compete with the Liberal Democrats for seats as much as they do against Labor so they are capable of branching out to the small l liberals…
Gillard wont be Prime Minister Possum. Plain and simple she is too far to the left for the ALP to have her as PM and if she were put in power at a later date she’d lose at the next election…She is not representative of middle Australia and her views arent shared by large sections of Australians…She is merely a novalty factor for the media to build her up but Joel Fitzgibbon would most likely take over from Rudd down the track if that ever happened.
Never forget it was the DLP., with urging to vote DLP by the Catholic Church, which kept Menzies in power or so long after WW2.
Glenn – I wasnt really talking about which way Cameron has moved (or if he even had), but was saying that comparing the behaviour of the conservative political forces in the UK with Australia isnt really a meaningful comparison because of the existence of a small L liberal party, and the way that combines with non-compulsory voting (and their lack of compulsory voting running with compulsory preferential) and how that all plays out demographically means the political landscape is just fundamentally different.
I had nothing to say at all about Gillard being PM or otherwise – but was wondering why the Liberal Party seems to think she’s a radical left weak link in the ALP armour, even though there’s has been no evidence to even remotely suggest that the public believes the same.
The polling evidence actually suggests that she’s getting more popular over time – making me wonder just what the purpose of the Gillard attack is, or if it’s just a bit of desperate flailing about?
Steel @ 433
There will probably be Labor hegemony across the broader electorate for a while but if Federal seats like North Sydney, Ryan, Kooyong and Higgins do become ‘marginal’ for non-Labor in the next decade, then inevitably non-Labor will adjust its personnel and policy positions to ensure it does not lose the electoral support of the people (of whatever age group) who live in those comparatively affluent areas.
Ooops, sorry David – didnt mean to call you Charles! It’s all a bit formal – let us put on our smoking jackets and break out the cognac dear fellow! 🙂
No doubt the Liberals will try to move that way if their blue ribbon seats start to fade from them. I wonder though how that would play out with their rural and regional constituents?
If the Coalition moves to the right to bolster the regions, they suffer on their left flank with votes going to the ALP and the Greens. But if they move to cover their small l liberal constituency they lose votes on their right flank to either independents (or to the ALP from people that would ordinarily vote on values issues, but if it’s removed by both parties appearing the same, leak to the ALP on government services issues like health, education and welfare).
The right flank of the Coalition is larger than the left flank of the ALP. If the ALP moves to the right, Greens votes come back to them anyway via prefs.But the if the Coalition moves to the left, there’s no guarantee that the votes they lose on the right will come back to the Coalition at all.
We’ve seen how places like North Sydney have been slowly moving toward the ALP since Tampa – the Coalition left flank. But we’ve also seen the Coalition lose their right flank to Labor in places like Forde and some of the regional QLD seats. The Coalition struggles to play values politics in the regions to bolster their right flank without it getting coverage across the country and blowing back on them in the inner cities.
Glen dont kid yourself Gillard couldnt be PM later on, four years ago what chances would you have given an African American would be POTUS? Gillard isnt very left at all and she’d get some votes just for being a woman, women like to see some of their own sex in charge and Gillard has shown herself very capable when she fills in for Rudd.
That’s Ok Scott. Don’t like cognac but appreciate the bonhomie. I am certainly interested in your perspectives on the direction of non-Labor politics in our great country. Perhaps we can revisit this topic another time, maybe on your site. Cheers.
Possum,
My experience from chatting with some of those Conservatives of which we speak, tells me that they consider themselves very rational realists. They believe absolutely in small government and low taxes and even more in the proliferation of big government, big spending socialist lefties.
They are so convinced by their own logic and practicality that, for them, is stands to reason that all right-thinking people would feel the same. Hence the claim to enjoy greater support Australia wide than in fact they have on any real measure. In fact, the majority of the Australian public has not supported many conservative positions, such as the monarchy and the war in Iraq.
Alternatively, the Australian public has continued to support causes which the Conservatives have traditionally railed against, such as:
climate change; abortion; single parenthood; and welfare payments.
This is why they think Julia Gillard is a liability – they can even imagine why she wouldn’t be.
Young Liberals propose national service:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24951935-601,00.html
No, not to develop a sense of community involvement, it is actually to detail with the financial crisis!
“Young Liberal president Noel McCoy said the aim was to provide a sizeable low-cost workforce that would help to offset the effects of the financial crisis.”
Well I guess you can’t get lower cost than ZERO. So I guess this counts as WorkChoices II
This push for tax cuts to diminish GFC efects is just a repeat of th econamic philosophy of 12 years of Costello
According to ANZ guru’s stats , th July 2008 tx cuts were significantly saved debt reduction , not spent and thats what you’d expent except th spending demographics I wuld hav thought if turnbull didn’t like infrastructure spending , then atleast he should be pushing th other obvious , temp tax breaks for investment
(finishing) as Tiurnbull seems to hav lkost touch even with business sector
“But the if the Coalition moves to the left, there’s no guarantee that the votes they lose on the right will come back to the Coalition at all.”
No , not at all But ahilst I think you ar wrong i just hope th Liberal party actualy believe you completely Enemy Marsupial because they won’t win back Federol power thinking that way
They need to become less ‘consevative’ and revolutionary 9for Libs & Menzies thoughts) become ‘services’ policuy focused cause Labor beats them in all those categorys , and there past alternitive fortes (national security & econamics) won’t help them with a Rudd at helm watching them two areas
Will be interesting to see what the LNP campaign on at the next election.
Race, bigotry, interest rates and the national security fear cards are all gone. No Aboriginal communities to invade, no refugees to use and abuse, no public servant departments to corrupt, no billions in tax payer dollars to throw at the media and, no neocon USA to call on either. Not being in government there is no wedge card available. Goodness! for the first time in a decade they will have to actually campaign on policies. They are doomed in that case. They will have to campaign on how Rudd ruinded the world economy in the space of a few months.
And it is not certain conservative business would like to see Rudd go either so the LNP might not get the usual full support from that quarter.
BTW so the young libs announce the ultimate conculsion of Workchoices – nationalising the workforce.