Newspoll: 54-46

The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.

UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd’s approval is down seven points to 63 per cent; Turnbull’s is down two to 45 per cent, his weakest result to date.

Elsewhere:

• Essential Research’s weekly survey has produced a status quo 59-41 result, along with a 56-20 preferred prime minister lead for Kevin Rudd that marks little shift from the previous time the question was asked in late November. Also featured are questions on expectations of the year ahead economically and for the Barack Obama presidency. Most interestingly, respondents were also asked to name their favourite prime minister since World War II, which produced a win for John Howard on 28 per cent. This is largely because those supporting Liberals (45 per cent of the total) showed no interest for contenders other than Howard and Bob Menzies (11 per cent), whereas the Labor loyalist vote was split between Kevin Rudd (20 per cent), Bob Hawke (12 per cent), Gough Whitlam (9 per cent) and Paul Keating (8 per cent).

• Former Tasmanian Tourism Minister Paula Wreidt has retired from politics, creating a vacancy in the electorate of Franklin that will be filled by a countback on February 2. This provides a clear entry to parliament for Daniel Hulme, the only remaining unelected Labor candidate from the 2006 election. My election guide entry tells me Hulme was an “Australian Taxation Office worker and former Young Labor president described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a ‘right-wing pro-development campaigner’”. Hulme was the last man standing after Paul Lennon’s exit in the middle of last year resulted in the election of Ross Butler – who, according to Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics, has raised eyebrows with his performance. If Hulme declines to nominate, or if any further Labor vacancies arise in Franklin before the next election, we might see the unprecedented activation of the clause which would allow Labor to initiate a by-election rather than have the seat go to another party. Still more from Peter Tucker.

• More casual vacancy news: the last remaining Australian Democrats MP, South Australia’s Sandra Kanck, has been replaced following her retirement from her upper house seat by David Winderlich. More from Andrew Bartlett.

• The NSW Nationals have intriguingly announced they will preselect a candidate for a yet-to-be-determined winnable seat at the 2011 state election by conducting an American-style primary, open to all voters enrolled in the electorate. Peter van Onselen notes in The Australian that “parties in countries such as Britain and Italy have increasingly embraced primary contests, more often than not with electoral success to follow”. The most likely electorates for the trial are said to be Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, each traditionally Nationals seats currently held by independents.

• Counting continues in South Australia’s Frome by-election, on which I have written an overview in today’s Crikey. Read about and comment on the progress of the count in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

Comments Page 10 of 17
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  2. LCP had surplus’s , good econamic mangers and low employment….
    ALP hav deficits , bad econamic mangers and high 6-7% unemployment

    LCP offers tax cuts
    ALP CC policy transferring aussie jobs to overseas
    ALP gone too far on IR , Union thugs ar running things
    ALP promised fast broadband , where is it

    All politcal Partys always hav lines

    Its arrogant & political ilnous to wipeout Libs as if they will never regain Govt and also that all there best voting demographics (older people) ar all dying… as if we ar just still staying young , but then maybe we ar These things go in cycles (th better th encumbant Govt & poorer th oposition th longer th cycle except econamic/security crisis’s)

  3. Diehard Libs hate Gillard the way the left hated Howard. It took Labor a long time to realise that the average non-interested swinging voter didn’t hate Howard like they did. Similarly they don’t hate Gillard the way the Libs do. My personal experience is that Labor voters love her, Liberal voters hate her and the middle don’t seem to mind her at all.

    To say she doesn’t represent middle Australia is ridiculous. I suppose Malcolm merchant banker Turnbull does? Most average people have been exposed to unmarried, childless people through their own family or work. They aren’t scared of her.

  4. What is it that you compare Howard with Gillard. Howard had form, he was the Treasurer in the ‘Bottom of the Harbour’ fiasco in the 80’s and did nothing about it. Then he became PM and invented core and non core promises, the ‘never ever GST’ and continued the lies and deceit for the remainder of his term.
    What is it that Gillard has done, that gives reason for the hatred shown towards her by the die hard LIbs?

  5. You don’t form government with only North Sydney, Ryan, Kooyong and Higgins, and you don’t need North Sydney, Ryan, Kooyong and Higgins to form government. As the AAP move to the right they force the Liberals into a very narrow zone.

  6. No , ALP has not moved to ‘right’ at all , thats a Greens myth Th Labor Party is a centre left Party, reflective of its Govt who won like all Govt’s do with th midle ground Australian voters….this middle ground has always favoured Labor’s ‘left’ policys on Health educaton , social justise etc and Polls hav always shown that

    Labors electoral problams hav always been to overcome Liberal’s perceived advantages in security & econamics both of which assisted Howad vctories , but when th first ‘died’ and th second’s crdability undermined by rate rises , and then W/C as well then Labor was in box seat to win So ALP haven’t forsed Liberal Party inrto a narrow zone , they did themselves by swinging to ‘consevative’ to creat seeds of defeat wirhth W/C a ‘consevative’ notion , they need to become ‘liberal’ again to hav any chanse & therfter sweat on Labor error’s

  7. Ron,

    There is and has been far too much gratuitous advice to the Libs about how to conduct their affairs. I am more than happy for them to continue exactly as they have done for the last twelve months or so.

  8. GG

    yes Amigo , agree am happy for them to continue as is…thought it was safe to giv advise on what they should do , because they like th elitist intelectuals see my lyrics & tink such literary prose is just too far above there levels of imaginations

  10. That is true GG “take them nowhere.”

    At moment they’re 1/2 way between notwhere and no where , but if there left alone they’ll end up at nowhere but united….. But If they follow me advice , then ‘consevatives’ and ‘liberals’ will fight each other….and still end up nowhere but divided….only trying to help

  12. Suppose you’ve budgeted for your finalls 8 judster tickets already

    Also glen mentiond a new channel APAC that i could’t find , but my tech daughter did near Discovery Channel , first time saw it tonite and had good China lecture on

  14. Gusface , just because thats where we got em from , does mean they’re ‘right’ , Greeks pinched stuff from Egytians and for mine st.ffed up those thingys long th way

    You know GG “Blues are back!” , geez I can picture Big Jack sayin out loud “th blues ar back in town” gravel voice and all

  16. Oh noes, you’re talking feetball, bludgers. Quelle horreure! Pardon about the spelling, the 3 legged cat is on the rampage. Now, let’s see if I can say something before the whole thing gets consigned to virtual oblivion. ( He doesn’t like the letters v and b they disturb his positioning on my lap). O. k. , he’s decided to play cello, always charming.
    Anyway, I’ve been laughing every time today I heard of Her Maj’s Loyal Opposition Leader attacking the gov’t. for being on the side of the banks. That he says it with such a straight face, just adds to my mirth.
    Idiot.

  17. [Blues are back!]

    Amigo GG, the Blues migh be back, but the Green&Golds have gone away. they were just too scare to HIT the effing ball!!!

  19. What is it that Gillard has done, that gives reason for the hatred shown towards her by the die hard LIbs?

    1: Demonstrate her capability’s

    2: Fear

  21. I wonder if the Young Liberals, running up this scheme for military or civil “national service”, have bothered to think about whether the latter would be held by the High Court to be constitutional See Constitution, s.51 (xxiiiA).

  23. What is that about Pedant? Have the Young Libs. been coming up with yet more wonderful ways of sending everyone else to fight stupid, ill-conceived wars, I’d not heard of? Wouldn’t surprise me. They’re very good at that, as long as it’s not them who have to fight.

  26. I seem to remember a poll before Rudd became leader, showing Gillard as prefered ALP leader with Rudd deputy? Not much evidence there that the public dislike her.

  28. >>ALP has not moved to ‘right’ at all , thats a Greens myth

    Yes but purveyed with gusto when a rank and file ALP member expresses his disgust with the shenanigans perpetrated by the Another Liberal Partei “elites”.

    And do you know what? It works. My GRN group in western Sydney picked up another 2 disaffected ALP members this week – one had nearly 40 yrs membership and had been a winning campaign manager back in the 80s . That makes 15 in the last 12 months. Mind you it isn’t hard when you have the current motley crew in power in NSW.

  29. Rudd has cancelled his overseas trip, the first half was deferred by the countries involved and Rudd decided to stay home and work on the next package and send someone else to the economic forum, whats the bet the wheels are spinning in Turnbull’s head to work out how he could turn it to his advantage, perhaps he’ll try on that Rudd is scared to leave him an open field, or things are much, much worse than Rudd is telling us, or Rudd is panicking, i’m sure his fertile brain will come up with something.

    http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/01/23/2473473.htm

  31. 479 – Don’t worry Judith Cosby Textor are working on it as I write. One of your options will be right. I don’t expect Mal to just say, “Good move” (which it is I think).

  32. AR,

    So where do the prefs go my lovely,
    When you’re alone in your bed?
    Tell me the angst that surrounds you
    Cos, we can look inside your head.

    ALP Sarsted
    Popular song from the sixties

  33. Nice one Hungry Horse. However at state and local govt level the decision might be to exhaust. We still have to see what the sainted Faulkner will recommend as the set up for the next Federal election.

  35. 477 – well duh!

    Thanks for pointing out the link there chuckles, otherwise surely many others would have missed it

    You don’t like that I have visited Politic 101? is that the problem?. Well for what it’s worth yeah, sure have, still do sometimes and have a fair amount of respect for many(most) of the inhabitants. This is wrong in some way for you?. If your after a fight over the “troubles” that were happening a long, long time ago then I suggest you’ve picked the wrong one to single out for your attack. Go have a look through the archives grumps and see who suggested what during those times

    Although it’s clear that truth isn’t the point for you, it’s more about the excise of power,

    Isn’t it Judge

  38. [Both Citibank and JP Morgan are now expecting the Reserve Bank to cut its cash rate by 1 percentage point when it meets on February 3 — bringing the cash rate to an all-time low of 3.75 per cent, and the standard variable mortgage rate to a 40-year low of 5.75 per cent, if fully passed on.]
    “Interest rates will always be lower under a Liberal government.”

    $4bn fund to shore up developers
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/4bn-fund-to-shore-up-developers-20090123-7ora.html?page=1

  44. SPAM BOX

    Did you watch ‘under belly’ channel 9 Now this was story of Carl Williams criminal drug lord earning squillions from kids drug addicton Bad man you say

    Then we hav those non Carl Williams persons but still a ‘Williams’ that did not trade drugs , thats th ‘family’ …..who knowinly lived a high life knowing there life was drugs crime soursed financed , and ar they pure , ar they got standards , and angels of innocense

    So when you “benefit” from crime , from that you know was ‘rights’ wrong …and post blog so ‘benefiting’ from an immoral ‘birth’ you perpetarate and condone by your blogging presence , then can no longer claim ‘innocence’ , perhips think again …principals

    BTW , taped th cricket…and result stlill same still lost , th earlier news was right

    BTW , now GG a mobile in a shoe ? , can a mobile in my gum boots be far behind

  45. Albert Ross

    #478

    Ron #456 “ALP has not moved to ‘right’ at all , thats a Greens myth”

    Albert Ross “Yes but purveyed with gusto when a rank and file ALP member expresses his disgust with the shenanigans perpetrated by the Another Liberal Partei “elites”.

    What I went on to demonstate in #456 is th Labor Party was and still is a ‘centre left’ party Now it might be a convenient ‘spin’ to Greens rusted on to say this but it is not based on fact , any more than its corect to call Libs neocons

    Why I dimissed such nonsense in my post is because Greens seem to hav 2 factions , i call th rational Greens in policy and politcal aspiratons as a ‘influence’ party on public policy nuancing for more old type ‘left’ directons with CC a modern version , and th nutty intelectuals with extreme policy solutons and false grandurs of replacing labor who called Labor ‘right’

    So politcaly inept silly is th later Greens intelectual ‘corect’ group that a minor movement by Labor to th ‘left’ although presented more wuld fataly damage Greens Party politcaly and electoraly , and thats in neither Partys politcal intersts anyway so don’t pray for what may be a don Chipp Party outcome , it may theoireticaly hapen In preactise Labor remains a centre left Party recognising reality of “globilisation’ , and for Greens Party in general it can afford to pretend ‘blobisation’ etc is not reel and market policys accordingly , knowing they”s never be in govt & knowing in govt many ar impratical

    So if you’ve got some additional members , thats fine , increases Greens ‘protest influense vale , and electoraly votes end up in Labor seeing 77& Greens wuld never pref Libs anyway

    BTW
    you arasked for advice other nite on drinking with dinner & you had to giv up drinkin cause next day you were ratsh… , no one hleped with with any advice not even your Green mates , well Albert as a centre left party beleiving in social justise & helpin peoples , can I say answer of your ‘drinking with dinner & you had to giv up drinkin cause next day you were ratsh…’ is you cut out wrong one , giv dinner a miss , drink away and next dat you won’t be ratsh…at all …although you may not remember anyting either , but you’ll be happy

  47. if anyone wants to reply, Ray Evans president of the H.R.Nicholls society has written a letter to the editor in the OZ lauding work choices of course, you can blog replys there so any printed should be interesting.

  48. Young pup demands an election now!

    [An 18-year-old Liberal National Party candidate has broken ranks with his party to call on Queensland Premier Anna Bligh to hold an election next month.

    Michael Palmer, the son of billionaire LNP benefactor Clive Palmer, on Friday called on Ms Bligh to hold an election at the next available date, February 21.]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/teen-lnp-candidate-ignores-party-line/2009/01/23/1232471580187.html

  49. [Michael Palmer, the son of billionaire LNP benefactor Clive Palmer, on Friday called on Ms Bligh to hold an election at the next available date, February 21.]

    Perhaps young Palmer has a short attention span or doesn’t trust the LNP camel to hold together much past the end of February.

  50. At the risk of drawing irate responses from diehard Labor supporters in SA, I’m going to point out, yet again, that the Tiser is not pro-Lib but often acts as a newsletter for Mike Rann. I’ve noticed this on Health on many occasions. There is no point trying to get bad news published on Health by the Tiser coz they just won’t do it. The Sunday Mail is much more balanced.

    The Tiser’s Editorial today says that the next election will probably have two main issues, Water and the Marj Hospital. They unequivocally supports Rann in building the Marj Hospital to replace the RAH and goes as far as saying they should not even have to convince everyone what a great idea it is, as it’s so self-evident. They will obviously campaign for Mike Rann again this election.

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