Newspoll: 54-46

The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.

UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd’s approval is down seven points to 63 per cent; Turnbull’s is down two to 45 per cent, his weakest result to date.

Elsewhere:

• Essential Research’s weekly survey has produced a status quo 59-41 result, along with a 56-20 preferred prime minister lead for Kevin Rudd that marks little shift from the previous time the question was asked in late November. Also featured are questions on expectations of the year ahead economically and for the Barack Obama presidency. Most interestingly, respondents were also asked to name their favourite prime minister since World War II, which produced a win for John Howard on 28 per cent. This is largely because those supporting Liberals (45 per cent of the total) showed no interest for contenders other than Howard and Bob Menzies (11 per cent), whereas the Labor loyalist vote was split between Kevin Rudd (20 per cent), Bob Hawke (12 per cent), Gough Whitlam (9 per cent) and Paul Keating (8 per cent).

• Former Tasmanian Tourism Minister Paula Wreidt has retired from politics, creating a vacancy in the electorate of Franklin that will be filled by a countback on February 2. This provides a clear entry to parliament for Daniel Hulme, the only remaining unelected Labor candidate from the 2006 election. My election guide entry tells me Hulme was an “Australian Taxation Office worker and former Young Labor president described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a ‘right-wing pro-development campaigner’”. Hulme was the last man standing after Paul Lennon’s exit in the middle of last year resulted in the election of Ross Butler – who, according to Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics, has raised eyebrows with his performance. If Hulme declines to nominate, or if any further Labor vacancies arise in Franklin before the next election, we might see the unprecedented activation of the clause which would allow Labor to initiate a by-election rather than have the seat go to another party. Still more from Peter Tucker.

• More casual vacancy news: the last remaining Australian Democrats MP, South Australia’s Sandra Kanck, has been replaced following her retirement from her upper house seat by David Winderlich. More from Andrew Bartlett.

• The NSW Nationals have intriguingly announced they will preselect a candidate for a yet-to-be-determined winnable seat at the 2011 state election by conducting an American-style primary, open to all voters enrolled in the electorate. Peter van Onselen notes in The Australian that “parties in countries such as Britain and Italy have increasingly embraced primary contests, more often than not with electoral success to follow”. The most likely electorates for the trial are said to be Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, each traditionally Nationals seats currently held by independents.

• Counting continues in South Australia’s Frome by-election, on which I have written an overview in today’s Crikey. Read about and comment on the progress of the count in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

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  1. Gary i have told you how, No Fair Work Australia and bring back Pre-2005 AWAs with the original no disadvantage test that the 1996 AWAs had and bobs your uncle oh and how ill tell you how you cut spending while delivering tax cuts to stimulate the economy….

  2. Wow Gerry Harvey is the latest economic advisor to Malcolm Turnbull.

    Ever noticed that Harvey Norman sells its goods at recommended retail price? Why? Because the computer shop, bed shop, furniture shop etc are all separate businesses all paying franchise fees and rent to Mr Harvey.

    So unless you need to “buy now – pay later” there is very little reason to shop there. Did you know the retailer has to pay a penalty charge if the “buy now – pay later” gets paid off on time?

    The other way they (and others) make money is by selling extended warranty, in fact many retailers make more Gross Profit selling warranties than they do selling the original goods.

    Have a close look at HN price tags – they show buy price, the price where the sales person starts to get commission and the GE Money price. 😉

    I suggest people with cash in hand would not buy from Gerry.

  3. Glen what I think your zig zag zig post means is …you’ve now ditched W/C ?….you’ve now taken up Keatings 1996 no disavamntage test ?…………..and that is gonna produse growth in your free market deregulatd IR where workers ar comodities based on clinicol supply and demand theory …..and you will cut spending as well but say not say where these cuts will be or how much ?……and you will deliver tax cuts , amount also unspecified , but believing such free market idealology of tax cuts to create growth in a GFC envioronment , despite Wall St showing that ideaolgy is in ruins , will “somehow” ‘deliver ‘ econamic growth & jobs ?

    Thats a recipe for lots of our Ruddy terms of office , you see youse guys for a politcal furture at min , need to embrase regulaton and Keynes and dust bin your idealogue past gurus , use dates ar gone on thems

  4. [No Fair Work Australia]
    Ie continue with Workchoices.
    [and bobs your uncle]
    So how does it help the federal budget stay in surplus Glen when the government is to give tax cuts?
    Explain the rationale behind these actions Glen. I suspect they’re steeped in ideology rather than practicality.

  7. According to his wife, Biden was offered a choice between SOS and VP. His wife wanted him home more so he went with VP.

    If he went with SOS, Hillary might have been VP. Oh, the humanity. 👿

  8. Vera this line from your link says it all.Poor dear old man,makes one feel sorry for him.
    “I’ve got horse studs and it’s difficult to get staff”.

  9. [According to his wife, Biden was offered a choice between SOS and VP. His wife wanted him home more so he went with VP.]

    Why would Obama be offering him a choice between VP or SOS before he’d even won the election? Doesn’t sound right.

  11. Sorry Dario. I forgot the link. It was on Oprah. A Biden spokesman denied it afterwards.

    [“Joe had the choice to be secretary of state or vice president,” she said. Her husband turned to his wife with his finger to his lips and a “Shhhh!” that sent the audience into laughter. “OK, he did,” Jill Biden said in her defense.

    The vice president-elect blushed, grimaced and gave his wife a hug while the audience continued to erupt in laughter. “That’s right,” he finally said to his wife. “Go ahead.”

    Mrs. Biden said she told him vice president would be better for the family.

    “If you’re secretary of state, you’ll be away, we’ll never see you, you know,” she said. “I’ll see you at a state dinner once in a while.”]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/19/biden-had-a-choice-betwee_n_159159.html

    Ron

    Shanahan taught me everything I know about reading polls in a biased, incorrect and unscientific manner. It comes in handy occasionally.

  12. vera
    Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2009 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

    “Gerry Harvey who wanted a 2 tier wage system so he could use overseas slave labour and pay them a pittance and then before long Howard & workchoices III would have lowered the rest of Oz wages to match.”

    Hello Vera , quite right there about Gerry Harvey

    Also today he may be very ‘respected’ , but yesterdays …ah th yesterdays of Gery harvey , now when i met Gerry many times at meetings accross tables , first when he had his failed Norman Ross business , and thens when he opened with some dificults th new business first store at auburn of Harvey Norman (with same mate Ian both times) …now that was yesterdays , and Malcolm Turnbull obviousley doesn’t know much , but th Gerry not a finance guru , and not a fan of me at all …many meetings and many times said i didn’t like his balance sheets , all pyromids of paper and straw at bottoms to me , and very very uinimpressed was Gerry with that , and especialy with all his accounting guru’s sitting there nicely suitedd were they but horified at such blasphames …so Vera am quite happy Malcolm is using my Gerry , will do him absalutely no good at all

  13. I just noticed that ABC, 7, 9 and 10 are all showing the Inauguration of Barack Obama. I can’t remember the last time all four showed the same event. Even for Di’s funeral channel 10 showed a movie or something.

    ABC is probably the best bet but with that cretin Barry Cassidy as host, we’ll have to put up with 50% of his comments being pro-Bush/McCain so he can keep his pitiful job. I don’t think I can stomach that.

  14. The tax cuts idea is, both economically and politically, silly. Economically tax cuts don’t create as much stimulus as direct investment because some people use the saving to pay off debts rather than spend. This is true of businesses and individuals.

    Politically it is not the greatest cause of confidence either. Those who have a permanent job don’t need the tax cuts. Inflation is now dead and with falling interest rates and fuel prices, most people can get by on their current salary. OTOH if you don’t have job security you are stuffed, no matter how low interests rates go. if peopel know their jobs are safe they will feel a lot better about life.

    The idea of limiting working hours and using that to get more employment is a very good one. Its far better to have more people doing teh same work than having soem working a lot and others on social security. And all get a better life. It was legislated in France a few years ago and was well accepted, especially by the young who saw themselves as frozen out of the job market.

    A lot of the current mess in employment, with some overworked and others not employed, is because we did away with all those “inefficient” penalty rates for overtime years ago. But were they really inefficient? For the company maybe, but for the nation as a whole probably not. I can still remember the time when I coudl have a professioal job, finish at 5pm, and go play some sport before dinner. It was a healthier life, and I still got my work done.

    I know this may seem like a rant, but if this crisis causes us to reexamine some of the sillier consequences of economic rationalism, it might actually do some good.

  15. If Turnbull was talking about reducing company tax I could understand his logic, any reduction in personal tax – or bringing it forward is going to do stuff all.

    But I think there was an economic guru from the USA who said tax cuts were the bee knees last year, Turnbull is still regurgitating this mantra.

    If Julie Bishop waffles on about “modelling” I think I will puke – just in case I will buy a new bucket with my Kev Xmas pressie. 🙂

  17. Diog

    You need to appreciate that in the US people buy a house with a 30 year fixed mortgage.

    Comparing US interest rate policy with Australia is stoooopid. 😉

  19. Dio

    Yes that is exactly the problem in the US. But even here I an suggesting that direct govt spending would be a more effective form of stimulus than a tax cut.

  20. ruawake, you might struggle to find a bucket. Most were sold before Christmas to people needing to carry coins to the RSL.

    (But not back.)

  21. [You need to appreciate that in the US people buy a house with a 30 year fixed mortgage.]

    You’re kidding me! Why the hell would they do that?

  23. ruawake

    Has anyone ever told you that you have a very mean streak sometimes. 😉

    I put my blind faith in Krugman and he seems to like Mark Zandi’s analysis.

  24. [ You’re kidding me! Why the hell would they do that? ]

    Diog its historical – its the way its alway been done – just like employers paying health insurance for their workers.

    Many “journalists” make similar errors – exstrapolating US figures into an Ozzie context. It all turn to crud because our economies are very, very different.

  26. The media just love gerry harvey because he is a motor mouth, most of the time with his foot in it.

    harvey was cheering when the money was being spent in his stores just a few short weeks back.

  27. Well, you must be an abstemious lot up there in QLD steve. This is from yesterday’s Adelaide Now:

    The latest Office of the Liquor and Gambling Commissioner figures show people spent $68.1 million on poker machines in December, an increase of more than $8 million on the $59.76 million spent in December, 2007.

    This is the most spent on poker machines during December in any year and is higher than spending levels reached before the State Government removed 3000 machines in 2004 in a bid to cut gambling. It is also higher than the previous month – November – when people gambled $60.94 million.

    The increase coincides with the Federal Government’s $10 billion rescue package, which was delivered on December 8 and designed to prompt spending.

  28. [harvey was cheering when the money was being spent in his stores just a few short w
    weeks back.]

    Yep in December he thought the $10b was brilliant, now because he wants to close stores without suffering any backlash he makes it sound like the $10b was dumb.

    Here he is in December:
    [“I thought if we’d gone up or down 1.5 per cent that would’ve been good, so to be up 4.5 per cent, I must say I’m a bit surprised,” Mr Harvey told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.

    “On that basis, Christmas is looking pretty good,” he added.

    Mr Harvey said it appears the government’s stimulus package was helping. ]

    but also in the same article here’s a bit of news:
    [Mr Harvey confirmed the group plans to close five to 10 stores next year, but played down the significance of the move, saying it wasn’t necessarily indicative of the broader economic downturn. ]

    oh, so it had nothing to do with the stimulus package “failing”, but because he was going to do it anyway…

  31. Although i cannot stand Gerry Harvey and yes he was preaching his love for the nice round figure of 10 Billion before Christmas, i agree with his comments. This spend fest was a waste of dollars. Better to use the money on projects which will bring worthwhile benefit to this country. When will the country begin invest in Solar Technology, or how about better public transport or water projects to help people, but instead we get a gimic called 10 billion why not 9.1 billion, no 10 billion.
    And what i read Swan wants to use tax cuts, is he mad that would increase the deficit even more… As i have said before governments need to borrow and spend and own things again instead of this fetish of believing that the private sector will get us out of this mess. Tax rises on the rich should occur instead of tax cuts. They will be immune from the crisis and should instead be made to help the needy in a time of collapse. Britain has just done this.
    It would be good if the government owned a bank but it sold it when Labor was last in power.. a government bank may make more loans and encourage the other banks to do the same due to competition.
    They should also scrap the first home owners grant, why possibly put people in homes which they be unable to afford if they lose their jobs, therefore encouraging people to buy homes could down the track see people blaming the government for such actions. And was Rudd at another sporting event.. Howard all over again.

  32. Gerry Harvey has had a plan to “own” whitegoods retailing, the Domayne stores are a direct competitor to his Harvey Norman and Joyce Mayne stores.

    The losers are the HN franchisees who suddenly see a competitor open across the road, paying fees and rent to the same parent company.

    Gerry complains that there are too many retail stores, but in his space he “owns” most of them.

    His domayne fiasco was a bad business decision – but he blames it on the great financial swindle.

    HN franchise owners were complaining about the domayne concept two years ago. 🙁

  33. So Gerry Harvey is an economic expert? Actually i think anyone can be an economic expert. I remember access economics stating time after time last year that their will be no recession, a slowdown and modest growth and now it is a deep recession and we are buggered…
    The poll result put simply make the most of it Labor it will not last.
    Although i believe they will win the next election federally many State Governments will not survive… NSW, Victoria and South Australia, all have dud leaders and somewhat dud policies… Victoria wasting money on a Massive Station and failing to use it on public transport stupid policy… Now coming home to roost… Mind you still do not know what the Liberals policy as usual… But realistically they will not have to release one the public will so fed up anyway to care.

  34. [Better to use the money on projects which will bring worthwhile benefit to this country.]

    Great sentiment marky, but would take ages to do anything for the economy. Meanwhile we all go down the toilet. Not the right option.

  35. [Great sentiment marky, but would take ages to do anything for the economy. Meanwhile we all go down the toilet. Not the right option.]

    Have to agree. It’s like seeing a house on fire and deciding to build a fire station.

  36. So throwing money around like confetti works? I would be delivering stimulus packages which look at short term and long term projects Dario. Projects which you can begin work on immediately. Surely the government could ask some of our State Treasurers about what worthwhile projects you could immediately fund and begin work on.
    How about increasing pensions or providing dole reciepents with extra funds or employing more people in the public service… or giving money to local government to do the same. Projects to clean up our inner city creeks and rivers would be a good start and it would have long term benefit. More bike paths another project of benefit.

  37. I would be delivering stimulus packages which look at short term and long term projects Dario.]

    And if you’d been paying attention, that’s exactly what the goverment has been doing. An immediate stimulus package of $10b, and various medium-term infrastructure projects brought forward.

  38. I would like to know how many people actually saved the money the got at Christmas or put it into paying of debts instead of spending it.
    Best to provide more Government jobs to get us out of the mess. In 1983 and 1991 the Hawke Government put significant amount of money into projects to get the economy going and this i think is the way to go. It provides people with skills, self esteem and a future.. A 10 billion giveaway does nothing.

  39. [Best to provide more Government jobs to get us out of the mess. In 1983 and 1991 the Hawke Government put significant amount of money into projects to get the economy going and this i think is the way to go.]

    Just before Christmas the Federal government gave local councils $300m to spend on infrastructure projects

    [A 10 billion giveaway does nothing]

    Rubbish

  40. Yep 10 billion a nice round figure why not 10.1 billion, similar to Murray Darling Scheme, wasted money which the bureaucrats will piddle up against a tree.

  41. [And if you’d been paying attention, that’s exactly what the goverment has been doing. An immediate stimulus package of $10b, and various medium-term infrastructure projects brought forward.]

    Yep need both – without the infrastructure program we might as well go back to the barter system.

  42. marky, dunno where you get the idea Rann will be going down the gurgler, MHS is a dill and it shows, he’s struggling to retain a safe liberal seat in last weekends by election, it’s down to the wire, actually it was expected to go the way of most by elections and be anti government, instead theres a slight movement towards the Rann government, thats after Rann made some unpopular moves that should have pssd the voters off, we crow eaters might btch about Rann but we also know where we’re better off, the state election next year will show very little movement and any movement wont be to the libs, if there is any changes it’ll be the libs losing to independants.

  43. ‘HN franchise owners were complaining about the domayne concept two years ago.”

    that all , i know of creditors , but no one ever associated with me , ‘waiting’ decades longer than that , and it s worth more than complaints

  44. [Yep 10 billion a nice round figure why not 10.1 billion, similar to Murray Darling Scheme, wasted money which the bureaucrats will piddle up against a tree.]

    Oh ffs. If it was 10.1 billion you’d say “why 10.1?”.

  45. i cant speak for anyone else marky but my money was spent on repairs to my crazy cottage so local guys got my share, my pal spent hers on recovering her lounge, again locally, next door had a new fridge {australia made} and grandie spent her money on a bedroom suite so the little fellow could have a bed instead of the cot, not a pokie in sight.

  46. Yep give you that Dario, but how many councils are their in Australia? This may amount to very little in the end. So the difference between 10 billion and 300 million is…
    Nonetheless this does not change my mind. This package to me was kind of like a bribe, fueling further greed and maybe putting people further into debt or short term debt or using the dollars to gamble or drink. I do not know begrudge giving money to people who need it such as pensioners or single parents, but was this package means tested?

  47. Marky, as Dario pointed out, putting money into medium term infrastructure projects is exactly what the gov’t. has done. Furthermore, no-one yet knows how the money to pensioners, FTA benefit people got spent, really, but people weren’t supposed to save it, or pay off debts, necessarily.
    Sigh, so early in the year, and already so hypertensive about the ABC’s reporting! I had ABC Online in the background today at work, and I swear no definition of balance could describe the amount of time Turnbull, J. Bishop and the latest addition to the ABCs pool of economic gurus, G. Harvey, received.
    Turnbull doesn’t disappoint, though, does he? I suspect he believes if he just keeps telling the gov’t what to do, a la Bushfire Bill’s Rainman expose, eventually he’ll get it right. Trouble is, Minchin and neocon compadres, will fight to the death to retain control. I’d love to be a fly on the wall inside the Libs. strategy meetings; it must drive Turnbull nuts.

  48. so who’se sitting up for the inauguration ceremony tonight??
    there was a few digs in the blogs today because Bush never gave Rudd a farewell phone call, though how the journo’s would know that heaven knows, anyway my mind boggled at the thought if Howard was still PM, after what he’d said about Obama i very much doubt he’d have ever got a call of any sort.

  49. Marky Marky ”

    “put significant amount of money into projects to get the economy going and this i think is the way to go. It provides people with skills, self esteem and a future.. A 10 billion giveaway does nothing.”

    Marky marky I’d like you you to tink about options here

    In a normal downturn Marky Marky you ar absalutely right ie put money into infra type bit and no give aways , and certainly no Liberol Party proposed tax cuts so in principal I agree with you

    Well govt is doing what you want , th infrastuture type things , howevr Govt also has had no choise but to also give a stimuli of give aways to get pensions & famiys etc to spend….figures indicated th GFC winds already had affected sales , growth and unemployment …AS THEY hav WORSER in other countrys , so Rudd jumped in to stop those worser efects happening here as well since figures indacated econamy was deteriorating …to buy “time” four th longer term infrasture type things to kick in and hav a then positive efect

  50. Love an argument… So are their any Libs in South Australia who could replace the dud of a liberal leader.. The economic mess will kill many of our Labor Priemers and yep if the Libs have no Answers in South Australia to the mess than Labor may get back in.
    And yep i am happy you and your friends have some new furniture, but what of the future? Harvey Norman Judith?
    And more independents great, because both sides are to busy helping the mega rich in this country and the media barons who run the country .

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