Newspoll: 54-46

The first Newspoll survey after the end-of-year break shows the Coalition recovering to 54-46 after the shock 59-41 result of December 9. The Australian spruiks this as the Coalition clawing back support, but a more likely explanation is that the previous poll was a rogue. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 66-19 to 60-22.

UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd’s approval is down seven points to 63 per cent; Turnbull’s is down two to 45 per cent, his weakest result to date.

Elsewhere:

• Essential Research’s weekly survey has produced a status quo 59-41 result, along with a 56-20 preferred prime minister lead for Kevin Rudd that marks little shift from the previous time the question was asked in late November. Also featured are questions on expectations of the year ahead economically and for the Barack Obama presidency. Most interestingly, respondents were also asked to name their favourite prime minister since World War II, which produced a win for John Howard on 28 per cent. This is largely because those supporting Liberals (45 per cent of the total) showed no interest for contenders other than Howard and Bob Menzies (11 per cent), whereas the Labor loyalist vote was split between Kevin Rudd (20 per cent), Bob Hawke (12 per cent), Gough Whitlam (9 per cent) and Paul Keating (8 per cent).

• Former Tasmanian Tourism Minister Paula Wreidt has retired from politics, creating a vacancy in the electorate of Franklin that will be filled by a countback on February 2. This provides a clear entry to parliament for Daniel Hulme, the only remaining unelected Labor candidate from the 2006 election. My election guide entry tells me Hulme was an “Australian Taxation Office worker and former Young Labor president described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as a ‘right-wing pro-development campaigner’”. Hulme was the last man standing after Paul Lennon’s exit in the middle of last year resulted in the election of Ross Butler – who, according to Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics, has raised eyebrows with his performance. If Hulme declines to nominate, or if any further Labor vacancies arise in Franklin before the next election, we might see the unprecedented activation of the clause which would allow Labor to initiate a by-election rather than have the seat go to another party. Still more from Peter Tucker.

• More casual vacancy news: the last remaining Australian Democrats MP, South Australia’s Sandra Kanck, has been replaced following her retirement from her upper house seat by David Winderlich. More from Andrew Bartlett.

• The NSW Nationals have intriguingly announced they will preselect a candidate for a yet-to-be-determined winnable seat at the 2011 state election by conducting an American-style primary, open to all voters enrolled in the electorate. Peter van Onselen notes in The Australian that “parties in countries such as Britain and Italy have increasingly embraced primary contests, more often than not with electoral success to follow”. The most likely electorates for the trial are said to be Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, each traditionally Nationals seats currently held by independents.

• Counting continues in South Australia’s Frome by-election, on which I have written an overview in today’s Crikey. Read about and comment on the progress of the count in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

850 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46”

Comments Page 2 of 17
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  1. Ultimatley the hadnout shows that, while useful, handouts and tax cuts are NOT as effective at generating jobs as direct government investment. Whether in health, education, transport or internet hardware, that is where we shoudl put money next. It both generates employment and demand in the short term, and gives us a useful end result in the long term. I hope all the talk about tax cuts is just that – talk. Apart from payroll tax (now very small in most states) tax cuts don’t create jobs.

  3. Time to buck up and back Nuclear Energy but of course the ALP have a stupid ideological opposition to the one technology that could help reduce carbon emissions…

  4. Catatonia went:
    [Just saw Possum’s article on the same subject of the Best PM Since WW2 poll. I’m surprised that Gough was more popular among people aged 18 to 24. This shoots my “political memories fade” theory a little bit out of the water. Not right out of the water, but enough to get a few feathers dry.]

    Not really Catatonia.

    17% is the top figure for the youngest demographic (for Whitlam) but it’s not a very big figure in and of itself.

    SO when you have Rudd rudd getting a third of the 25-34, double digits in the 18-24 and then fading out as you get into older age groups – it still makes you right, there’s just variance in the figures that cloud the relationship between political memory and PM support, but not to the point of suggesting it’s actually incorrect.

    [I’d be fascinated to see them corect there maths per my #27 , seeing they obviously took up your suggeston to poll by PM’s]

    Ron – Essential might have got their 56% figure from adding up the raw numbers and then rounding, rather than adding up the rounded figures. That is actually the way things are supposed to be done in polling – calculations made raw then rounded.

  6. This Newspoll proves that people are ready to vote for the Coalition again but they don’t like Turnbull as the leader. Costello’s preferred-PM rating would be twice as big as Turnbull’s.

  9. 56 Bree – hardly. The last Newspoll was clearly a rogue poll. This just continues the pattern of last year’s polls. The Libs are as far away from government as they were last year.

  11. Gus, I agree with Mumbles – rounding knocks these things around sometimes. Last Newspoll was probably unlucky to be a 59 rather than a 58 in the same way this one is unlucky to be a 54 rather than a 55 (unlucky in terms of sampling error throwing the results fractionally enough one way for the rounded numbers to come in as they did).

    Neither Morgan nor Essential have had similar poll movements in the new year – they’ve been effectively flat, so it’s unlikely that the true underlying level of political support as determined by Newspoll was either as high as it was or as low as it currently is.

    A new Nielsen would be nice to to add to the mix to see.

  13. glen
    [for the time being.]
    care to chance your arm and give a prediction for the mid year figures

    Poss
    The way the MSM is playing it,you would think that fibs were on some resurgent wave.

    Taking into account the avg. I suppose its no real change and we are hovering around the 55-45 mark (still honeymoon territory)

  14. The best excuse for a 5% swing to the Liberals (other than LOTS of noise) would be if, in between the two Newspolls, Rudd had’ve released a really crap, cave-in, woefully inadequate, anti-science, Howard-like policy which failed to address the biggest threat to Australia’s future and made us a pariah nation around the world. 😉

  15. I see that new political channel is up and running on pay TV. Had a peep earlier and they had Obama walking around a classroom in Washington making small talk and shaking hands.
    I suppose that will be all we see as they will follow him around filming his every move right up to the big swearing in gig.

  16. Diogenes,

    I know Australia never lost a home cricket series under Howard. But, aren’t you taking it a bit too seriously.

  19. Gary

    The ETS White Paper was released on the 15th December. The last Newspoll was 7th Dec and was 59:41.

    GG

    No, I’m not being terribly serious but someone had to say it and it might as well have been me. I think the 7th Dec Newspoll at 59:41 was artificially inflated by the Christmas handout. I do think that part of Rudd’s drop in approval rating is due to the ETS though. Lots of “progressive elitists” would have said they didn’t approve of him because of it. I certainly would have switched from approve to disapprove, but wouldn’t have changed my vote.

  21. Diogenes,

    Aren’t you falling for the old Shanahan foible of picking one change in a poll and using that to make predictions that re-inforce your already established prejudices? It’s probably true that you want the reason for the drop in popularity to be a populist reaction to ETS. However, the evidence of one poll coming after a previous poll that was an outlier is not convincing.

    If you take the previous poll out, the trend line is flat.

  22. GG

    Yes, I am. Shanahan is my mentor. 😉

    I’m being more of a Devil’s Advocate than anything. Without Boerwar around at the moment, someone has to put a CC spin on the polls.

    What I really want to know is whether all you Obama-doubters going to commit mass harakiri tonight.

  24. Diogenes,

    Really, as you are an athiest I would have thought the “Devil” is a fairytale to your ilk. I could see you as a “Fairy Advocate”.

    As for Obama, I bow to the tyranny of the majority who seem to have invested this untested performer with messianic powers. I wish him well. However, there is plenty of room in this world for doubters.

    Nonetheless, I’ll concede that, if sweet words could solve the world’s problems, then he could go alright.

  25. GG

    I’m sure Dio was using it as a metaphor. The devil (and god) are like “the will of the people” – you don’t have to believe they exist but its hard to disprove them.

    As for Obama, I don’t think he’s the messiah, he’s just a very nice boy 😉

  26. This is one for the “it could be worse” category as far as Australia is concerned. Spain has bene put on negative credit rating watch alert by S&P i.e. the national debt might get downgraded below AAA. Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal are in a similar situation.
    http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/standard-poors-puts-spanish-sovereign-debt-on-ratings-watch-negative/

    This doesn’t mean these countries could default but does mean they will pay more interest on their debt, and may find it harder to borrow.

    Of course, given the rating agencies pathetic inability to forecast any of the recent failures, Spain could legitmately say its best to ignore S&P.

  29. Paul Williams with a different slant on the next Queensland election. Independents will be a big risk of winning seats, he thinks.

    [But, even before a date has been announced, there appear two wrong-headed assumptions about this poll. First, that the “It’s Time” factor after 11 years of Labor incumbency, and the massive economic downturn, will cruel its chances and automatically deliver to the Liberal National Party a huge swag of seats, although probably not enough to win government.

    Second, that the global financial crisis will enhance the major parties’ chances while sidelining minor players such as the Greens and Independents.]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24933495-27197,00.html

  30. [What I really want to know is whether all you Obama-doubters going to commit mass harakiri tonight.]

    Diog, as per usual, you are wRONg, again. As per GG, i wish him well and sincerely hope he succeeds for all of us in this pitiful world.

    From what i have seen so far, Obama is just happy to play the celebrity POTUS role, doing the swiggin’ jivin’ clappin’ and rappin’. And let others do the hard yakka, especially the likes of Clinton Mark 3. So i cant really commit harakiri over a virtual, digital POTUS as now.

    btw: will be watching the crowning

  33. steve @ 79.

    The LNP chance of winning the next Qld state election is not very high. They need to win exactly 22 seats from Labor and a uniform swing of 9.10% to the LNP. I can’t see this happening.

  34. Finns be honest now the only reason you’ll be watching the crowning is to see if that Irish bet you had pays off. You want to see duckin’ and weavin’ instead of jivin’ and rappin’ 😉

  35. The Finnigans, did you watch the making of Barack Obama on auntie last night? maybe you should have, it goes right back from law school up, do you know he spent quite a lot of time representing people who couldnt pay in court, like Rudd he did his time helping in homeless shelters, he helped start up programs to get the kids off the streets in chicago, he settled his family in a mixed middle class Chicago suburb, no fancy professional neighbourhood for him, both whites and coloureds from his old neighbourhood spoke highly of him and his family, maybe you’ve only been looking on the surface.

  37. 79: That Courier Mail article’s trying to get the usual message through, I see…

    [ That’s why Premier Anna Bligh shouldn’t fear any backlash for perceived opportunism should she go to the polls early. ]

    I’m sensing a bit of “good cop / bad cop” with this newspaper – a different way of getting the same thing. Coming from a town with the West Australian, I can sympathise with you Queenslanders – as soon as Bligh calls an early election, good cop’ll turn around and strike like a cobra.

    [ Queenslanders anecdotally say they want to end the speculation with an election sooner rather than later. ]

    Pfft. ‘Anecdotally’ = asked the barfly at the Journo’s Arms over a pint after work. Show me a poll.

    [ In October, the NSW Nationals failed to win back the regional seat of Port Macquarie when former Independent MP Rob Oakeshott resigned to contest the Lyne federal by-election.

    When another Independent, Peter Besseling, scored almost 80 per cent of the vote after preferences, it became a jaw-dropping testament to the power of popular local identities, one only further underscored when Oakeshott won Lyne. ]

    Nuh uh. Besseling only won the by-election by 4.5% – Oakeshott was the guy with the ~30% margin, in both Port Macquarie and Lyne. Lazy shoddy reporting.

  38. The Essential “Best PM” question is just like those dumb “Greatest Albums Ever” polls. The recent albums are always over-represented and the popular “classics” like Led Zep IV get wheeled out every time. The truly great albums like “In The Aeroplane Over The Sea” get missed.

    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=AH3CRVVBL9o

  41. [The Finnigans, did you watch the making of Barack Obama on auntie last night?

    Judith, yes i did. i have no problem with Obi, as he and i have something in common., very common. It’s to do with the soup that he and I like very much.

    My problem is the expectations people placed on him. As a disciple of the Life of Brian, he is not a messiah, he is just a naughty boy.

    Amigo Vera, you are a very naughty girl. Yes, the Irish joke was there, you know Uranium235 or U235, singing some rubbish song as per usual.

  42. Nah, it’d be ‘over-represented’. Lists of best albums / songs of all time tend to contain a bundle of bands that just happen to be popular at the time of writing, especially if they’re voted JJJ Hottest 100 style. For example, Wolfmother would probably be in one of those lists written recently, whereas it wouldn’t be in such a list written in the year 2020. Find a list written in the late 90’s and see how many would still be on it now. ‘OK Computer’, ‘Moon Safari’, ‘Loveless’ etc would still be on it, but there’d be stuff that’s now fallen off the radar. 😉

  43. [I’m an idiot. Apologies.]

    Poss, i wish the possums that come to poo on my back veranda every night would say that to me. i am thinking of cooking possum stew in red wine.

  44. Enemy Marsupial

    #54

    Sometimes you spend too much time in th ‘right” place in that tree , instead of hopping a few branchs over to th “left” place

    Your reply to my #27 on Essential Research’s maths ‘error’ is pretty well what William already replied to me in #34 saying

    • 34
    William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2009 at 2:55 am | Permalink
    “Ron, it’s obviously to do with rounding – we’re adding up results that have been rounded to full percentage points, whereas they have raw figures to go off.”
    However I replied to William in my #36 which you may hav missed seeing , and await Williams reply to my #36 which said

    “William i can see what you’re saying , however its rather inconsistent to show rounded % figures per PM , that when you add up those per PM rounded figures show Labor PM’s at 55% suport , but then separately use unrounded per PM % figures with decimals and (Essenbtial Reseach) end up saying in there Summary quote “56% suported Labor PM’s” “

    So actually I ‘m saying Essential could hav rounded per PM first , and then there Sumary wulkd hav added to and acytualy said th total % Labor support (was 55%) , OR Essential could hav shown unrounded (by one decimal ) per PM and then there Summary wuld hav added to and actually said th total % Labor support (then being 56% rounded or to ist decimal , either way ) …but either way there individul per PM % support would hav added up to there total Summary figure o % Labor PM % support , but Esential research’s alternative criss cross double methods way doesn’t add up and equal , and is inconsistent

    You say that’s th way raw figures ar domne …but why is “th way” right for th future …I’m saying if % per Labor PM support (55%) doesn’t add up to th total % of all Labor PM support (being 55%) and Esential in there Summary say instead say oh no its reely 56% not 55% but that’s ok guys , that may be th way its done but it doesn’t make it “right”….and these poling fraternities ar not immune from valid criticism either This political Site supposed to be intersted in accurate political data and done consistent

    BTW my #36 also said this rounding bit is even in Newspoll and said then that current 54/46 NewsPoll can be a 0.8% diff reely , 54%/46% can be 53.6% up to 54.4% , and 45.6% to 46.4 …then th MOE , then small Partys % ‘s hard to be accurate on , but that doesn’t make Esential method consistent with this at all as they sub analysed per PM and by par % per PM

    BTW I also suggested your memory fades view with th young is a bit off and actual just don’t agree with you at all nopw i tink about it , like as I mentioned th great Gough has 17% suport in 18-24 sector poled (but 9% overall) , so its not ncesarily a memory thing for th young at all , but th young selectivley seing/hearing of how big a achiever a PM was in changing our Country for th better , and our 18-24 young I sugest at 17% for Gough do obviously not hav faded memories weren’t born , so instead actualy remember/told of Gough th manificents from 36 years ago , so fully don’t agree with you there , its selective memory even for th young by greatness/effect …and actually Gough Whitlam got HIGHEST % support in 18-24 groups so that’s my case Whereas with Curtin I think bad history sylabus teachin English history instead of how great our aussie PM Curtin was

    And yes , reckon curtin then Gough then Hawke ar our 3 greatesst PM’s by achievement/influence on our Country , and willing to ague for that as well

  46. Julie Bishop will have answer the question, “How do we save jobs, help people out and keep the budget in surplus by cutting government spending, all at the same time?” The answer would be fascinating. Which is it Julie, jobs or surplus? Of course Glen assures us you can do both but is reluctant to explain how.

  48. William

    Jeff Mangum of Neutral Milk Hotel could have been up there with Mark Oliver Everett, John Lennon and Kurt Cobain if he wanted to. Colin Meloy of the Decemberists is probably his heir.

  50. I can scarcesly believe my luck

    “Possum
    Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2009 at 3:16 pm | Permalink
    #86

    I’m an idiot. Apologies.”

    a line I can see thats just gonna keep on giving

    Perhaps Obama has ‘delivered’ deliveranse to me ……after all

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